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[Chris46139]

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Parker leaves; Week 16 start, sitposted: Friday, December 21, 2007 | Feedback | Print Entry
filed under: Fantasy NFL, Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons, Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, Carolina Panthers, Chicago Bears, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Dallas Cowboys, Denver Broncos, Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins, Minnesota Vikings, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, New York Giants, New York Jets, Oakland Raiders, Philadelphia Eagles, Pittsburgh Steelers, San Diego Chargers, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, St. Louis Rams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Tennessee Titans, Washington Redskins

Fast Willie Parker won't be so fast for a few months, after breaking his leg in Thursday night's win over the Rams, but really, this could have been a lot worse in fantasy football. It could have happened in Week 3. Or Week 9. Instead, Parker got hurt in the second-to-last game of the regular season, when most leagues are either playing their Super Bowl, or in the semifinals. Most owners aren't playing at all.
I try to look at things in a positive light, and every time I view an injury update on Larry Johnson or Marvin Harrison, I'm thankful Parker gave fantasy owners a league-leading rushing total in his 14 games. Well, 14 games plus one play. While fantasy owners complained about this guy all year for the fact he wasn't scoring touchdowns, the fact is he will enter Sunday's games (nobody in the Saturday game is close) with more rushing yards than anyone in the game, and No. 12 at running back for fantasy this season. Sure, you drafted him higher than that, but like I've said with underachieving Carson Palmer, it could have been worse. You could have drafted Vince Young.



WEEK 16 KARABELL
FLEX RANKS

LaDainian Tomlinson
Brian Westbrook
Adrian Peterson(MIN)
Earnest Graham
Jamal Lewis
Joseph Addai
Ryan Grant
Fred Taylor
Randy Moss
Braylon Edwards
Willis McGahee
Marion Barber
Terrell Owens
Marques Colston
LenDale White
Marshawn Lynch
Reggie Wayne
Greg Jennings
Rudi Johnson
Brandon Jacobs
Wes Welker
T.J. Houshmandzadeh
Chad Johnson
Kolby Smith
Frank Gore
Aaron Stecker
Larry Fitzgerald
Andre Johnson
Edgerrin James
Brandon Marshall
Maurice Jones-Drew
Donald Driver
Joey Galloway
Laurence Maroney
Kevin Jones
Plaxico Burress
Anthony Gonzalez
Bobby Engram
Chester Taylor
Clinton Portis
Steve Smith
Anquan Boldin
Ron Dayne
Dwayne Bowe
Adrian Peterson(CHI)
Travis Henry
Deion Branch
Roddy White
Patrick Crayton
Thomas Jones
Kevin Curtis
Calvin Johnson
Derrick Mason
Selvin Young
Shaun McDonald
Shaun Alexander
Laveranues Coles
Chris Henry(CIN)
DeShaun Foster
Arnaz Battle
Jabar Gaffney
Dominic Rhodes
Justin Gage
Julius Jones
Lee Evans
Bernard Berrian
DeAngelo Williams
Chris Chambers
Jerious Norwood
Kenton Keith
Jerricho Cotchery
Reggie Williams
Mike Furrey
David Patten
Darren Sproles
Kenny Watson
Samkon Gado
Santana Moss
Reggie Brown
Jesse Chatman
Maurice Morris
Roydell Williams
Sidney Rice
Nate Burleson
Warrick Dunn
Darius Walker
Kevin Faulk
Fred Jackson
Donte' Stallworth
Amani Toomer
Jerry Porter
Michael Pittman
Leon Washington
Chris Brown
T.J. Duckett
Muhsin Muhammad
Ronald Curry
LaMont Jordan
Heath Evans
Joe Jurevicius



The worst thing Parker's injury does to his owners is get them off to a slow start in Week 16, because Parker was probably active for just about everyone, and he registered a goose egg for points. But you can overcome this! Just look at Week 15, when half the perceived top-10 quarterbacks did nothing, or Week 14 when hotshot rookie Adrian Peterson ran for all of 3 yards. Peterson's owners might blame him for their fantasy loss, but would it have happened anyway? Games are decided by the slimmest of margins, but one player does not a fantasy team make. So you enter Sunday in a 0-0 tie, and your top running back has already played. You can still emerge as the winner.

Two other thoughts on this injury: One, Parker is still fine to be protected in keeper leagues. A broken leg is not a career threatening ailment, and should heal just fine. It's not a torn ACL, like Ronnie Brown is dealing with. Parker won't be in my top-5 for 2008, but I think he's a first rounder. For the record, my top-10 for 2008 drafts, for now, would be something like LaDainian Tomlinson, Peterson, Tom Brady, Steven Jackson, Larry Johnson, Brian Westbrook and Joseph Addai, followed by Peyton Manning, Parker and either Frank Gore, Marshawn Lynch or Willis McGahee. Parker's in there. He scored touchdowns in 2006, he could easily go back to scoring them in 2008.

Second, Najeh Davenport ran very well in place of Parker, and he'd make a fine pickup for the Week 17 finale except for one thing: The Ravens can stop the run, not the pass. I expect Ben Roethlisberger to throw another three touchdowns in Baltimore, but Davenport won't make my top-20 running backs for the Week 17. Wow, we're really getting ahead of ourselves. We've still got 15 games this week to deal with!


Steelers 41, Rams 24

The winning team: The Rams really are this bad defensively, and those who sat Roethlisberger based on the shoulder problems he was having missed a 23-point effort, a number Big Ben has topped only twice all season. One of those efforts, of course, came in just the first half in the Baltimore game. Yep, the Ravens go for revenge a week from Sunday. Roethlisberger has already passed 30 touchdowns for the season, and he very well might finish the season as the No. 3 quarterback in the game, behind Brady and Tony Romo, possibly passing Peyton Manning. Thanks, Ben. The Steelers didn't seem to miss Parker very much, and not to be mean, but I'm not so sure they will in the playoffs, either. I mean, if Pittsburgh has to travel to New England, won't Roethlisberger have to do the heavy lifting anyway in an air-it-out affair? Jacksonville normally doesn't get run on, though Parker did have 100 yards in Week 15. Just saying, Davenport is a different back, but should be effective in his own right. And we're assuming the Steelers make the playoffs, which is not certain.

The losing team: One thing I really wouldn't like as a Steelers fan would be the way the defense is playing, with Brady, David Garrard and now Marc Bulger having little trouble exploiting it. Bulger's overall game was not impressive, but you knew it wouldn't be because every second half for the Rams is a joke. At halftime they're in the game, and then things go very wrong. Bulger, per normal, played poorly in the second half, and Steven Jackson didn't get enough touches, and a competitive game soon wasn't. Then there was internal griping, as Torry Holt was seen barking at the coach. Everyone should finish strong in the finale against Arizona, a sure shootout game if ever there was one, but I'd argue if you played your big Rams on Thursday night, the only one you can complain about is Holt. Isaac Bruce basically assumed his role, while Bulger and Jackson each registered 16 fantasy points.

OK, one game down, a lot to go in this big weekend. Here are some of the noteworthy players I ranked higher or lower than others on the fantasy staff. Look for updated rankings from all of us later Friday.


QBs I Apparently Do Like More Than Others This Week

Carson Palmer, Bengals: It's true he's been a disappointment this season, despite being ranked the No. 15 player overall, and No. 9 at quarterback. Didn't we expect more? Also, since that six-touchdown game in Week 2, he's been pretty average. So why do I like him? The matchup is against that same team he went off for 37 fantasy points against, the Browns. I think Palmer and Derek Anderson put on a legit aerial show.

Jay Cutler, Broncos: A few colleagues didn't even rank him, which I thought was odd. Is he hurt and I didn't react? Cutler did have an MRI on his knee, but I haven't heard anything about him potentially missing the Monday night game. That's right, he gets an extra day! The Chargers aren't sieves defensively, but I think Cutler has graduated to the class of starting fantasy quarterback. He's been in my top-12, or around there, the past month. Cutler didn't do much against San Diego the first time, but he's reached 15 or more fantasy points in four of five weeks. He's emerged.


QBs I Apparently Don't Like More Than Others This Week

Donovan McNabb, Eagles: He did not play well at all against the Cowboys, leading the team on exactly one touchdown drive, or two if you count Brian Westbrook and his now infamous "fall." Sure, the Saints aren't the 1985 Bears defensively, but I don't think McNabb is a sure-thing play. I would still play Jon Kitna over him, and I'm no longer a Kitna fan, either.

Vince Young, Titans: It might mean nothing, but haven't the Jets been better on defense the past month or so? And hasn't Young been, shall we say, erratic? Young didn't make anyone's top-12 for Week 16, but I ranked him worse than all others. I actually think he'll be productive, but he's just a bigger risk than others for a playoff game, as his two nothing games in the past month show.


RBs I Apparently Do Like More Than Others This Week

Joseph Addai, Colts: As noted Thursday, I think it's possible Addai is on the field less in comparison to Peyton Manning and Reggie Wayne, among others, but look at that Baltimore game a few weeks back, when Addai had three touchdowns before halftime. Get the point? This matchup against Houston is no tougher than running on the Ravens.

Rudi Johnson, Kenny Watson, Bengals: OK, so the Week 15 performance from Johnson was a bad one, but he had scored the previous three games, and his best game of the season, like his quarterback, came against the Browns. As of this writing Johnson has missed two days of practice with a hamstring injury, but I still think he's going to play in a rivalry game, and unless Palmer just refuses to hand the ball off, Johnson should have a good game. Then again, I put Watson in this section, too, because if Johnson doesn't play, I move Watson way up.

Aaron Stecker, Saints: That's 195 rushing yards and a few scores the past two weeks, and Philly just stuck its top linebacker on injured reserve. Don't worry about the potential Reggie Bush sighting. First of all, I doubt he returns, and second, why would the Saints hand the ball to him anyway? Bush is a receiver at this point, and Stecker is safe.

Chester Taylor, Vikings: If there's any backup running back who doesn't get enough carries that you can count on as a flex option, it's this guy. With his offensive line, he can break one at any time, even against the upstart Redskins. Taylor bounces back with a score Sunday.


RBs I Apparently Don't Like More Than Others This Week

Check out Eric on the ESPNEWS "Hot List" every Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday at 3:50 p.m. ET, and Sunday mornings on the national Fantasy Focus on ESPN Radio, 7-9 a.m. ET.
Eric on fantasy football
Thu: Overreacting to players sitting out
Tue: Monday night, Westbrook
Sun nite: Wrapping up Week 15
Fri: Week 15 start, sit, flex
Thu: Rooting for teams doesn't help
Tue: Analyzing current Falcons

• Dec. 19 chat session
• Dec. 12 chat session
• Dec. 5 chat session




Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars: It's true I ranked him a few spots after our average, but it's not that I don't like him. I think Fred Taylor is on some crazy streak and will be enjoying himself yet again. Oddly, my No. 10 ranking of Taylor was also a staff low, so maybe I think the Raiders will step up again and play some decent run defense. Nah, I don't really believe that.

Selvin Young, Broncos: Sorry, but I will not, could not, shall not trust a Denver running back the next two weeks. My Travis Henry ranking seems in line with the others, but on Young I was a few spots worse. Why should we believe Young is the top guy? The Broncos are out of it, Mike Shanahan could insert himself into the lineup for all we know.

Samkon Gado, Dolphins: I actually smiled when I saw an opponent of mine had activated Gado for our playoff matchup in Week 15. Gado ended up scoring and delivering a decent fantasy day, but I won. I'd smile even more this week, with the Patriots the opponent. Plus, this Jesse Chatman situation is annoying, no? I mean, I could see the on-again, off-again status for Reggie Bush, as that's a potential playoff team. The Dolphins just won their first game, and Chatman is talked about so much as if he's affecting the game's outcome. Fantasy owners need to stop waiting for Chatman, whose last good game was six weeks ago. As for Gado, I expect Cleo Lemon to be throwing 45 times.

Warrick Dunn, Jerious Norwood, Falcons: I was apparently not high on either of these guys, and I'm assuming the reason others were is because of the matchup against Arizona. Actually, the Cardinals aren't the sad, horrific defense you think against the run. Maybe it's because they get in shootouts and don't defend the pass, but don't go activating Chris Redman either. After the most recent Falcons game, I'd stick with Roddy White and that's about it. If you told me Norwood would get even 12 carries, I'd change my mind, but nothing is assured here.


WRs I Apparently Do Like More Than Others This Week

Anthony Gonzalez, Colts: It took me a while, but now I think he's legit and it's actually possible we don't see Marvin Harrison even in the playoffs. I never thought he was coming back in the regular season. But here's the thing: Gonzalez is important now, so if Reggie Wayne were to sit out, wouldn't it stand to reason Gonzalez should, too? I think neither will.

Donald Driver, Packers: Buoyed by his Pro Bowl selection, Driver gets ripped by fantasy owners because he doesn't score, and Greg Jennings does, but I think the Bears will be susceptible to the wrath of Brett Favre and Driver will have a better day than normal.

Chris Henry, Bengals: One catch in Week 15, but it was a touchdown. He can do this again.

Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs: Here's one instance where I could have overrated the matchup, but it's the Lions, in their dome. Weather won't matter. Why can't Brodie Croyle engage Jon Kitna in a good, old fashioned shootout, with Bowe topping 100 yards and scoring?


Other KaraStuff
Fantasy hoops:
Mon: Keep Calderon around long-term
Fri: Let someone else have Larry Hughes
Dec. 10: Analyzing Tinsley, Pacers
Dec. 7: Adding, dropping, panicking
Dec. 3: Breaking down the worst teams for fantasy


Fantasy baseball:
Dec. 19: My December avoid team
Dec. 12: Checking out Gagne, all closers
Dec. 5: Cabrera, Delmon trades, top 25 feedback
Nov. 28: Johan trade talks, my overall top 25
Nov. 14: Checking out free agency
Nov. 7: Arizona Fall League




Patrick Crayton, Cowboys: I think Tony Romo will be fine, Terrell Owens will be happier and Terry Glenn won't be a factor. Crayton is a decent flex wide receiver who consistently goes unnoticed in fantasy.


WRs I Apparently Don't Like More Than Others This Week

Roddy White, Falcons: I said I'd stick with him a few paragraphs above, but I guess others would really stick with him. If I own the guy, I'd keep playing him, because whatever Redman does wrong doesn't count against White.

Lee Evans, Bills: Has three double-digit games all season, one in the past six weeks. I realize the Giants were bad against Washington, but I can't trust Evans as a flex option anymore.

Reggie Williams, Jaguars: This year's Chris Henry, in a way, for a quarter of his receptions have gone for touchdowns. I should appreciate this more, but the Raiders are capable against the pass. The Jags should just run all over them.

Santana Moss, Redskins: I'm not suddenly buying this lost season. Todd Collins barely threw against the Giants, and the Vikings have improved against the pass.

Jerricho Cotchery, Jets: I do like his and the chances of Laveranues Coles a bit more with Chad Pennington in there, but not enough to put either in the top-30. Cotchery's production was no worse with Kellen Clemens, but like Thomas Jones, he's got one touchdown all year.


Your thoughts

Rich (Cleveland): "Hi Eric, in your blog about Week 16 and playing time, you mention you would never sit your studs. But I'm interested in a different twist on that subject. My fantasy team has only three healthy running backs, Joseph Addai, Kenton Keith and Maurice Jones-Drew. I agree with your blog comments and will not sit Addai. However, since it looks like Keith will get some touches, would you play him instead of MJD, especially since Fred Taylor is the clear, red-hot No. 1 RB in Jacksonville."

Want your question answered by an ESPN fantasy expert? The Answer Guys is a new service exclusive to ESPN Insiders, with a 24-hour response guarantee!

Eric: I would still play Jones-Drew over Keith. Even with Taylor going off the past month, Jones-Drew has still been a factor as well, scoring in Weeks 11-13, and totaling 99 yards from scrimmage against the Steelers in Week 15. Really, the touches for Jones-Drew haven't gone down, we're just noticing Taylor's stats more. Keith should play, and he appears a better flex option than I figured earlier in the week, but I don't play him over Jones-Drew.

JD (Nashville): "Eric, your post about Tampa Bay possibly sitting its starters in the second half has me concerned about Earnest Graham. As enticing as the Atlanta matchup looks and as productive as he's been, I think I'm better off starting either Ryan Grant or Brandon Jacobs. Wouldn't you agree? Or should I just start Earnest and hope for the best before halftime? My first championship is on the line. Thanks."

Eric: All three of these running backs are solid plays, but Jacobs is the one I would leave out. There really hasn't been much word from Jon Gruden on who will sit out for the Bucs, and I'd assume Graham will be relied upon quite a bit, first and second half. Jeff Garcia is the one I'd think twice about using in fantasy. In our Wednesday rankings we had Grant and Graham as two of the top six running backs overall. Stick with them, and best of luck!


Keep sending those comments by clicking here. I read all the comments, whether they are thoughts on the blog, mistakes you found, topics for new ones, whatever, and I post a few e-mails in each blog. Thanks for reading. Enjoy your weekend.

[Fantasy Football Expert]

good read