Fantasy Football Strategy

[QuadzillaXXX]

I know this is odd considering it’s the end of the NFL season but it really is a year-round endeavor. I draft 10 teams each year and usually win 4-5 of those. I started roughly 15 years ago when you’d have to check your stats in the Monday morning paper’s box scores and a lot has changed since then.
With the increasing popularity of fantasy ball, I thought I’d list some strategies that I use. Hopefully this will help someone who has always wanted to try fantasy football but just weren’t sure how or maybe get a veteran over the hump in the finals to pick up a championship along the way. I’ve tried to list them in the order from the end of the season like now into the next season and through draft day itself but it’s not perfect.
Again, these are just my strategies so if you have something that works for you then great. And, feel free to list your tips here as well.

1. DO YOUR RESEARCH: This is the main reason teams fail. Everyone in the world wants to talk about who the first 3 picks in the draft are going to be. In reality the first 2 rounds are basically the same everywhere you draft. I try and use a 12-team format when I can and in that case you’ll have roughly 60 wrs and 48-60 rbs come off the board so if you only research the first few rounds you’ll be lost after round 3. In this day of free agency teams change every single off-season. You definitely want to not only keep an eye on which free agents end up which teams but what that impact is for the team they left and their new squad. And this is for all players, not just stars. If a good running team loses an offensive lineman or 2 then maybe they’re not a good running team anymore. There is plenty of information on the web to help you on sites like: yahoo, nfl, espn or rotowire.com to which I personally subscribe. Be wary of using fantasy football magazines, which are usually printed in May or June and are already out of date by the time preseason starts.

2. LEARN THE LEAGUE RULES: This is a vastly overlooked part of research as well. You need to know how points are accumulated and how many players you can draft at each position. You may rank wrs much lower than rbs but if you throw in a rule like 1 point per reception then it can really change the value of a lot of wrs and even rbs who get involved in the passing game. Also, you need to know how many of each position you can have on your roster and how many guys at those positions you can start. You should know these rules before you go into any draft.

3. LOOK AT THE BOX SCORES: This is another aspect of doing your research that will occur all season long. If you can’t watch every game then the box scores are the next best thing. These can really tell the tale of a game. Just because a rb had 85 yards rushing and a td doesn’t mean he had a great game. If 1 of those rushes was for 55 yards and he had 24 more carries for 30 yards then that’s something you definitely want to monitor. On the other hand, I grabbed Ryan Grant (RB GB) immediately when I saw that he had 25 carries and no other rb had more than 2-3. Their run game was struggling and they were using a revolving door but this really showed a vote of confidence for Grant despite the yardage totals not being anything incredible.

4. PRACTICE DRAFTING: I mentioned earlier that I do 10 leagues/year. This happened as a result of trying to get in as many drafts as I could before my money leagues. I just ended up playing them out all season long. The practice draft is a great way to be able to see into the future. Once you get through 3-4 drafts then there’s generally nothing that will surprise you on draft day. I also find that the teams I draft earlier in the preseason are never as good as the ones I draft closer to the start of the regular season.

5. WAIT ON QUARTERBACKS: Every year someone drafts a qb in the first round and every year that team loses. Why? Because when you do that you lose out on a rb who could’ve carried your team in a rough week. Also, there are generally enough good qbs to be had later in the draft. There are examples of this every season. This year Manning went in the first round of just about every draft on the planet and he had a very good season. He’ll end up in the top 5 fantasy qbs probably. But Tom Brady went in the 3rd in most leagues, Tony Romo went in the 6th, Ben Roethlisberger went in the 9th and Derek Anderson was undrafted. These guys are currently ranked 1, 2, 3 and 5 respectively. Next season someone in your league will take Tom Brady about 6th overall, don’t be that owner.

6. DRAFT RBS FOR DEPTH: I typically draft 5-6 rbs in every draft and sometimes take 3 in the first 5 rounds. And, in every single draft someone makes fun of me. Then in week 8 when they have injury and bye week issues they’re the first to email and beg for a trade. Rbs take an absolute beating every week but they’re the backbone of your team. Not only are their injury issues but you have more and more teams going to the running back by committee approach where they’re splitting carries between a few backs. Instead of a rb getting 25-30 carries you have 2 getting 10-15 each. True feature backs who get goal line carries and are involved in the passing game are a fantasy drafter’s dream.

7. WRS ARE IMPORTANT: In the past if you had 2 stud rbs you were almost impossible to beat but in today’s pass heavy games, wrs are more important now than ever. While it’s true that they don’t touch the ball as often, they are capable of throwing up big points in a hurry with a long td catch or a game ending drive that racks up garbage time yards. I always make sure I draft a wr in the 2nd or 3rd round depending on my draft position. While it’s true there’s always wrs on the waiver wire during the year, I really believe you need at least 1 top wr who puts up solid production week after week. When I look at the winning teams I’ve had in the last few years there’s always 1-2 top 10 wrs on those rosters.

8. THERE ARE A LOT OF GOOD TIGHT ENDS: Unlike in past years when you either draft Gonzalez or just took a hit on TE points each week, there are plenty of TEs to go around. The difference in the top 10 TEs is about 4.5 points/week.

9. WAIT ON DEFENSES AND KICKERS: The gap between a top D/K and the number 10 ranked one are usually only a few points/week. This season defenses like Baltimore and Chicago went as early as the 6th round, as did kickers like Adam Vinatieri. Instead of grabbing a good position guy to lead your roster you end up with a Baltimore D that is currently ranked around 25th. You could’ve had a player like Braylon Edwards or Tony Romo instead. The Vikings D is #1 and went in the 14th or even later generally. I take my D in the 14th and my kicker in the 15th. I also only draft 1 of each and just make moves to fill in for bye weeks. This lets me draft 11 rbs/wrs to try and add some depth.

10. TEAMS ARE BUILT IN ROUNDS 3-8: This is going to sound stupid but the first 2 rounds can only hurt you. What I mean by this is that you draft those 2 players as stars who will carry your team all year so when they put up big numbers you expect it. But, if one gets hurt or just doesn’t produce then it can really hurt a team. Teams who win leagues get strong value for their picks in these rounds. This is where you pick up guys like Burress, Braylon Edwards, Tony Romo, Santonio Holmes, Andre Johnson, Colston, Owens and Moss. This is exactly why you want to do as much in-depth research as possible.

11. DON’T FOLLOW RUNS: Invariably in a draft there will be a round where everyone all of a sudden decides they need a TE. If you’re the 5th team in that run then you should just take the best player at another position. Why take the 5th best player at a position right after 4 guys in front of you got the better ones anyway. You’re better off just taking one later since you’re not really sacrificing many points. The only time this rule doesn’t apply is the first 2 rounds when there’s definitely going to be a run on rbs. You need at least 1 very early anyway.

12. DON’T TARGET PLAYERS: Everyone has their sleeper list going in and they just “know” that guy will be huge. It’s much easier to just take the best player for your pick then to reach and grab a player. If it works then that’s great but it usually doesn’t since none of us can really see the future. When it doesn’t work it ends up as a wasted draft pick that’s usually in a round where you don’t’ want to waste a pick.

13. INJURIES HAPPEN: Every year people love to say, “I can’t believe how many injuries there are this year!” Believe it. It happens every single year. Your job is to be prepared and you do that through drafting for depth. It’s nice to be able to get a player’s backup incase they get hurt but in most cases that guy is a backup for a reason. If you drafted 5 starting rbs and one gets hurt then you just plug in the next one.

14. DON’T BE AFRAID TO TRADE: If you have great depth at one position and are weak at another then don’t be afraid to try and strengthen your team. I watch players very carefully all year to see if I see any trend where I can buy low on someone who hasn’t been performing. This season, for example, I was able to trade Roethlisberger/Holt for Peyton Manning/Colston. Ben was outperforming Manning and Colston looked like a draft bust this season. I saw it as a chance to get rid of Ben before the bad weather games hit and to use Holt’s name recognition since it looked like St Louis’ offense was going to struggle. On the other hand, I knew Manning wouldn’t struggle all year and I saw some signs of life out of the New Orleans offense. Holt continued to have a pretty good year but I definitely got the better end of that trade.

15. DON’T OVERTHINK MATCHUPS: Every week someone asks a question on some message board about which players to start. They always want to take the guy with the easier matchup. I understand the idea behind it but great players play great regardless of the matchup. You’re not going to bench LT because he’s playing against Jacksonville. The production might be a little lower than normal but let your stars carry your team. When you’re looking at a #2 or #3 wr then the matchup or the cb they’re facing become more important but if you have someone playing well then let them play.

16. DON’T CONFUSE FANTASY WITH REALITY: Just because a player or a defense is great in reality, it doesn’t always translate into fantasy production. Conversely, a qb can stink but get enough losing effort garbage time yards and touchdowns to look like a good qb. Aaron Brooks was a great example of that for years in New Orleans. He would go through 3 quarters with nothing and they’d be down 31-6 and all of a sudden in the 4th he’d throw 2 tds and add some rushing yards to make it look like he had a good game……he didn’t. Defenses are the same. You can have a team like Tampa Bay who had a good real world defense but until last weekend they had never ran back a kick for a TD. Those tds are like gold during the year.

Sorry about the long post but hopefully it’ll help someone. And anyone who has never done a league but always wanted to, give it a shot next season. Maybe we can throw together a team or 2 out of this thread.
Also, I wanted to say thanks to everyone who posts here all season to help with roster decisions. It makes it a lot easier when you can get someone else’s viewpoint when you’re not sure.

Zilla

[iggs111]

nice writeup zilla, thanks!

[QuadzillaXXX]

Originally Posted by iggs111

nice writeup zilla, thanks!

Thanks iggs. My opinion might mean more if I could've won more than 1 out of 10 leagues lol.