Karabell's overrate top picks...

[RanPicks]

Overrated Early Picks

by Eric Karabell
One man's Lamborghini might be another man's Ford Focus, so I'm always careful to avoid openly ripping other peoples' picks during a fantasy football draft. I might not agree with Adrian Peterson going first overall or Willie Parker falling out of the top 40 -- each of which I have seen so far -- but I'll keep my mouth shut and fingers calm on the draft message board. My opinion might not match yours, but hey, that's OK. It's a long draft, we all have a plan, it can be bad karma to bash picks ...
Then again, after the draft is over, I just can't keep quiet. I have opinions, and they must be shared! Here are some of the bigger names I wouldn't take in the spots they are going in ESPN standard league live drafts, which I suppose makes them overrated, but only in the context of draft position. I'll draft anyone in the right spot -- except for the 49ers' Alex Smith; enough is enough! -- and that includes the players listed below. But when I take a closer look at how high they are going, I'm surprised.

Peyton Manning, QB, Colts: He's liable to shock us all and overcome his recent knee problems, and end up with yet another 30-touchdown campaign. But I wonder whether he's going in the top 10 because those who miss out on Tom Brady want to make sure they get a top quarterback. Hmmm. I like Manning, but I can't say I've ever spent a first-round pick on him. The wise move is to let someone else take him too early, because you can draft close to 30 touchdowns a lot later, if you choose wisely. If Manning lasts to pick 15 or so, I'm buying.

Andre Johnson, WR, Texans: There are two main reasons there's no chance I would put this guy in my top five at his position or in the top 25 overall, which is where he's being drafted. One, he's far too brittle, having missed 10 games the past three seasons, and he's battling a sore groin already this preseason. And two, Matt Schaub is his quarterback. Schaub might be a future star, but so far, the only thing these guys have in common is weekly listings on the injury report. Johnson is talented but barely in my top 10 among wide receivers. I'd rather have Larry Fitzgerald, Marques Colston or Torry Holt.

Brandon Jacobs, RB, Giants: Durability is definitely a concern, but look at how the Giants -- that's the Super Bowl-champion Giants to you and me -- plan on running the offense, and that should dissuade anyone from making Jacobs a top-30 player or No. 2 running back. The committee effect has to have at least some kind of effect on the talented Jacobs. Ahmad Bradshaw seems ahead of Derrick Ward on the depth chart, and while I'd pick Jacobs to outgain and outscore both of those guys, the carries still will be split generally. Draft Jacobs in Round 4 instead.

Laurence Maroney, RB, Patriots: Maybe you think he turned the corner and emerged in the playoffs, but it seems to me Bill Belichick isn't going to play any favorites with his running game. Instead, in a typical Belichick maneuver, he'll likely go with the hot hand. A year ago, Sammy Morris was that guy, leading the team in rushing the first six weeks as Maroney battled injuries. LaMont Jordan isn't the healthiest cat out there, either, but the Pats brought him in and should at least keep him busy on passing downs and near the goal line, meaning Maroney is a risky top-30 pick to me.

Antonio Gates, TE, Chargers: There's no questioning his talent, but his troublesome big toe doesn't seem to be in awe of this immense talent; it's holding him back. I won't be surprised if he misses games in September, and with the fantasy regular season being short to begin with, that should be enough to push Gates out of the top spot at tight end. I wouldn't take any tight ends before Round 4 in the first place, but it seems to me Gates' injury is being glossed over.

Lee Evans, WR, Bills: In my eyes, any owner who selects Evans expecting him to be an every-week starter is taking him too highly. I just can't take the inconsistency anymore. Sure, he had a 265-yard game once upon a time, but he has had too many stinkers since then. There's a time and place to draft Evans, and it's not Round 5 or 6. Look closer at Evans' stats last season and the Bills' offensive game plan (run, run, run). Plus, big rookie James Hardy figures to get more targets in the red zone.



what do you boys think?

[PHILLYBIRDS20]

Disagree on Manning if I can get him top 10 he is gone. I do agree on Evans and MARONY THOUGH

[RanPicks]

dont' know if I take Holt over AJohnson... maybe...