Who would you rank as your top 16.

[Burgh Brew Crew]

I am joining a 16 team league and I have been mulling over the top 16 players. Since I am joining the league I am getting slotted in the 16th spot. What I am trying to find is what players do you think would be left at 16 and if I should trying something crazy and go wr/wr or wr/qb with the 16th pick. Its PPR league, head to head, with 15 rounds start Qb, RB, RB, WR, WR, Flex, TE, PK and Def/St. Thoughts?

[Keith]

I will assume that passing TDs are 6 points. If they are, then you have to believe that Brees and Brady are both gone by the time you pick at 16. I believe that Fitzy and Moss and likely one of the 2 Johnsons (Andre or Calvin) are the WRs that are gone. That leaves (in no particular order) 11 RBs: Peterson, MJD, Turner, Forte, DeAngelo, LT, SJax, Jacobs, Slaton, Gore and Chris Johnson.

I think that at pick # 16/17, you are looking at one of the 2 Johnsons as a WR, and then either Barber, Portis or Westbrook (downgraded due to injury concerns) as an RB.

[Burgh Brew Crew]

I was gameplanning Peyton going in the 1st rd too. I agree Larry Franchise and Moss and maybe Andre 3000 being the wide receivers gone in the 1st as well. The qb situation in det scares me as far as taking Megatron in the 1st rd. The rbs you list seem to be the consensus as far as mocks and adp from various sites. I am considering something like colston and roddy white bang bang and waiting for rian grant or pierre thomas along with tom jones (the singer) when it comes back around figuring i came wait for palmer, mcnabb, hasselback or cutler in the fifth.

[Bisket]

take 2 RB's, by the time you get to the 32nd pick, all the no brainer picks will be gone.

you can find plenty of good receivers in the later rounds, and for QB you can still find guys like Bulger, Schaub, and maybe even Romo. Just get 2 of those of those type of guys and start the one with the weakest opponent and you will get a decent amount of points.

[Keith]

Originally Posted by Bisket23

take 2 RB's, by the time you get to the 32nd pick, all the no brainer picks will be gone.

you can find plenty of good receivers in the later rounds, and for QB you can still find guys like Bulger, Schaub, and maybe even Romo. Just get 2 of those of those type of guys and start the one with the weakest opponent and you will get a decent amount of points.

Have to disagree--IF passing TDs are worth 6 points. If so, you can't wait on a clown like Bulger. Schaub is worth the shot, but is injury-prone for sure. More value with a guy like Rodgers or Rivers.

[Bisket]

i was just giving examples, just think the dropoff between 1st and 2nd tier QB's is a lot less than with RB's, especially in a 16 man league.

[Keith]

Originally Posted by Burgh Brew Crew

I was gameplanning Peyton going in the 1st rd too. I agree Larry Franchise and Moss and maybe Andre 3000 being the wide receivers gone in the 1st as well. The qb situation in det scares me as far as taking Megatron in the 1st rd. The rbs you list seem to be the consensus as far as mocks and adp from various sites. I am considering something like colston and roddy white bang bang and waiting for rian grant or pierre thomas along with tom jones (the singer) when it comes back around figuring i came wait for palmer, mcnabb, hasselback or cutler in the fifth.

If you knew Cutler would be there maybe. But if you get stuck with Palmer (sorry, that shoulder is NOT 100%), McNabb (too injury-prone), or hasselbeck (also injury-prone and not many weapons). Coslton and White are good, although I'd take Barber over White. Atlanta is a running team and Gonzo will get red-zone looks when they throw. Colston and Barber at 16/17 is a good start.

[Keith]

Originally Posted by Bisket23

i was just giving examples, just think the dropoff between 1st and 2nd tier QB's is a lot less than with RB's, especially in a 16 man league.

perhaps. I agree with the drop-off between 1st and 2nd tier QBs, but the drop-off between 2nd tier QBs and..........
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........3rd tier QBs is pretty steep.

[Burgh Brew Crew]

Ok, played around with a mock and here is how the adp ratings played out for the first few rounds. Note: computer drafted the other 15 teams based solely on adp rankings.

1.01 Peterson, Adrian MIN RB 1.02 Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB 1.03 Forte, Matt CHI RB 1.04 Turner, Michael ATL RB 1.05 Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR 1.06 Jackson, Steven STL RB 1.07 Johnson, Chris TEN RB 1.08 Johnson, Andre HOU WR 1.09 Williams, DeAngelo CAR RB 1.10 Johnson, Calvin DET WR 1.11 Gore, Frank SFO RB 1.12 Slaton, Steve HOU RB 1.13 Tomlinson, LaDainian SDC RB 1.14 Moss, Randy NEP WR 1.15 Brees, Drew NOS QB
1.16 Barber, Marion DAL RB
2.01 Wayne, Reggie IND WR 2.02 Jennings, Greg GBP WR 2.03 Westbrook, Brian PHI RB 2.04 White, Roddy ATL WR 2.05 Smith, Steve CAR WR 2.06 Brady, Tom NEP QB 2.07 Jacobs, Brandon NYG RB 2.08 Boldin, Anquan ARI WR 2.09 Portis, Clinton WAS RB 2.10 Colston, Marques NOS WR 2.11 Bowe, Dwayne KCC WR 2.12 Manning, Peyton IND QB 2.13 Bush, Reggie NOS RB 2.14 Marshall, Brandon DEN WR 2.15 Welker, Wes NEP WR 2.16 Brown, Ronnie MIA RB
3.01 Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB 3.02 Smith, Kevin DET RB 3.03 Witten, Jason DAL TE 3.04 Rivers, Philip SDC QB 3.05 Lynch, Marshawn BUF RB 3.06 McFadden, Darren OAK RB 3.07 Edwards, Braylon CLE WR 3.08 Grant, Ryan GBP RB 3.09 Thomas, Pierre NOS RB 3.10 Houshmandzadeh, T.J. SEA WR 3.11 Owens, Terrell BUF WR 3.12 Williams, Roy DAL WR 3.13 Gates, Antonio SDC TE 3.14 Stewart, Jonathan CAR RB 3.15 Ochocinco, Chad CIN WR 3.16 Romo, Tony DAL QB
4.01 Jones, Thomas NYJ RB 4.02 Royal, Eddie DEN WR 4.03 Holmes, Santonio PIT WR 4.04 Jackson, Vincent SDC WR 4.05 Addai, Joseph IND RB 4.06 Gonzalez, Tony ATL TE 4.07 Jackson, DeSean PHI WR 4.08 Bryant, Antonio TBB WR 4.09 Cutler, Jay CHI QB 4.10 Moreno, Knowshon DEN RB 4.11 Ryan, Matt ATL QB 4.12 Clark, Dallas IND TE 4.13 Gonzalez, Anthony IND WR 4.14 Warner, Kurt ARI QB 4.15 McNabb, Donovan PHI QB 4.16 Evans, Lee BUF WR
5.01 Winslow, Kellen TBB TE 5.02 Avery, Donnie STL WR 5.03 Ward, Derrick TBB RB 5.04 Cotchery, Jerricho NYJ WR 5.05 Johnson, Larry KCC RB 5.06 Moss, Santana WAS WR 5.07 Schaub, Matt HOU QB 5.08 Olsen, Greg CHI TE 5.09 Cooley, Chris WAS TE 5.10 Wells, Chris ARI RB 5.11 Jones, Felix DAL RB 5.12 Berrian, Bernard MIN WR 5.13 Parker, Willie PIT RB 5.14 Palmer, Carson CIN QB 5.15 Rice, Ray BAL RB 5.16 Jones, Julius SEA RB

Also, I drafted the first 3 then let the computer run the rest

[Keith]

Originally Posted by Burgh Brew Crew

Ok, played around with a mock and here is how the adp ratings played out for the first few rounds. Note: computer drafted the other 15 teams based solely on adp rankings.

1.01 Peterson, Adrian MIN RB 1.02 Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB 1.03 Forte, Matt CHI RB 1.04 Turner, Michael ATL RB 1.05 Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR 1.06 Jackson, Steven STL RB 1.07 Johnson, Chris TEN RB 1.08 Johnson, Andre HOU WR 1.09 Williams, DeAngelo CAR RB 1.10 Johnson, Calvin DET WR 1.11 Gore, Frank SFO RB 1.12 Slaton, Steve HOU RB 1.13 Tomlinson, LaDainian SDC RB 1.14 Moss, Randy NEP WR 1.15 Brees, Drew NOS QB
1.16 Barber, Marion DAL RB
2.01 Wayne, Reggie IND WR 2.02 Jennings, Greg GBP WR 2.03 Westbrook, Brian PHI RB 2.04 White, Roddy ATL WR 2.05 Smith, Steve CAR WR 2.06 Brady, Tom NEP QB 2.07 Jacobs, Brandon NYG RB 2.08 Boldin, Anquan ARI WR 2.09 Portis, Clinton WAS RB 2.10 Colston, Marques NOS WR 2.11 Bowe, Dwayne KCC WR 2.12 Manning, Peyton IND QB 2.13 Bush, Reggie NOS RB 2.14 Marshall, Brandon DEN WR 2.15 Welker, Wes NEP WR 2.16 Brown, Ronnie MIA RB
3.01 Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB 3.02 Smith, Kevin DET RB 3.03 Witten, Jason DAL TE 3.04 Rivers, Philip SDC QB 3.05 Lynch, Marshawn BUF RB 3.06 McFadden, Darren OAK RB 3.07 Edwards, Braylon CLE WR 3.08 Grant, Ryan GBP RB 3.09 Thomas, Pierre NOS RB 3.10 Houshmandzadeh, T.J. SEA WR 3.11 Owens, Terrell BUF WR 3.12 Williams, Roy DAL WR 3.13 Gates, Antonio SDC TE 3.14 Stewart, Jonathan CAR RB 3.15 Ochocinco, Chad CIN WR 3.16 Romo, Tony DAL QB
4.01 Jones, Thomas NYJ RB 4.02 Royal, Eddie DEN WR 4.03 Holmes, Santonio PIT WR 4.04 Jackson, Vincent SDC WR 4.05 Addai, Joseph IND RB 4.06 Gonzalez, Tony ATL TE 4.07 Jackson, DeSean PHI WR 4.08 Bryant, Antonio TBB WR 4.09 Cutler, Jay CHI QB 4.10 Moreno, Knowshon DEN RB 4.11 Ryan, Matt ATL QB 4.12 Clark, Dallas IND TE 4.13 Gonzalez, Anthony IND WR 4.14 Warner, Kurt ARI QB 4.15 McNabb, Donovan PHI QB 4.16 Evans, Lee BUF WR
5.01 Winslow, Kellen TBB TE 5.02 Avery, Donnie STL WR 5.03 Ward, Derrick TBB RB 5.04 Cotchery, Jerricho NYJ WR 5.05 Johnson, Larry KCC RB 5.06 Moss, Santana WAS WR 5.07 Schaub, Matt HOU QB 5.08 Olsen, Greg CHI TE 5.09 Cooley, Chris WAS TE 5.10 Wells, Chris ARI RB 5.11 Jones, Felix DAL RB 5.12 Berrian, Bernard MIN WR 5.13 Parker, Willie PIT RB 5.14 Palmer, Carson CIN QB 5.15 Rice, Ray BAL RB 5.16 Jones, Julius SEA RB

Also, I drafted the first 3 then let the computer run the rest

knew you'd have a choice of Barber and Westbrook at 16/17. Cannot believe Portis goes as low as pick # 25. He is an absolute STEAL at # 25. No doubt Brady and Jacobs go earlier in a real draft than where this computer had them.

[Burgh Brew Crew]

keith,
i agree with you and the slotting of picks as who should be available, but i am still wondering about the gap between wr 1 and wr 2. after the first 2 rounds the only wr worthy of being a legit wr 2 is ochocinco and lee evans and there is a ton of questions surrounding them and their qbs. so if i take say wayne and jennings rds one and two, can i still get value with the likes or pierre thomas, tomas jones, rian grant, julius jone, larry johnson, cedric benson, jamal lewis, chris wells/hightower, and addai? if i go wr, wr, rb, rb, qb i could conceivably have wayne, jennings, larry johson, tomas jones, and cutler based on these adp rankings. not spectacular but solid and in a 16 team league wouldnt that be the goal?

[Keith]

Originally Posted by Burgh Brew Crew

keith,
i agree with you and the slotting of picks as who should be available, but i am still wondering about the gap between wr 1 and wr 2. after the first 2 rounds the only wr worthy of being a legit wr 2 is ochocinco and lee evans and there is a ton of questions surrounding them and their qbs. so if i take say wayne and jennings rds one and two, can i still get value with the likes or pierre thomas, tomas jones, rian grant, julius jone, larry johnson, cedric benson, jamal lewis, chris wells/hightower, and addai? if i go wr, wr, rb, rb, qb i could conceivably have wayne, jennings, larry johson, tomas jones, and cutler based on these adp rankings. not spectacular but solid and in a 16 team league wouldnt that be the goal?

Not a big Ocho fan as I think Palmer's shoulder is NOT 100%. The only way I would go WR/WR at 16 and 17, is if at least one of the stud WRs is still there. In my mind, Wayne and Jennings, while both VERY good, are both not in that stud level. Those are weak RBs you will be choosing from (except maybe for Pierre and if someone beats you to him, you are hosed). I think you'd have a better team if you went Barber/Jennings at 16/17, and then Pierre Thomas/WR (I like Eddie Royal at that spot) for your 3rd and 4th round picks. I do like Cutler this year as well.

[Burgh Brew Crew]

Royals value goes up this year with a possession qb in orton at the helm along with Scheffler's. Pierre Thomas is getting a lot of hype lately which scares me and gives me the thought he wont be there at 48 in the third round. Based on your idea I would have to go Jennings, Barber with Jones in the third unless Pierre falls and Royal in the fourth. That leaves with searching for a qb in the fifth with possibly the top 12 being gone.

[huscroft6]

I like the waiting on the QB strategy as well and it has always fared well for me for the most part. Id go the RB/RB or RB/WR route and then next time around collect 2 more to give you a very stout RB/RB/WR/WR team to work with. In 4 leagues last year went to SB in 3 with Favre in 2 of them and Cutler in another, all came after I filled my skill positions with studs. Granted 16 team is diff than 12 so it will be very diff working around that

[Keith]

Originally Posted by huscroft6

I like the waiting on the QB strategy as well and it has always fared well for me for the most part. Id go the RB/RB or RB/WR route and then next time around collect 2 more to give you a very stout RB/RB/WR/WR team to work with. In 4 leagues last year went to SB in 3 with Favre in 2 of them and Cutler in another, all came after I filled my skill positions with studs. Granted 16 team is diff than 12 so it will be very diff working around that

you wait too long on a QB in a 16 team league, and you are trotting guys like JaMarcus Russell or Chad Pennington out there as your fantasy QB