1: What can be expected of LHP Aroldis Chapman in 2010? At the beginning of Spring Training not much was known about the 22 year old Cuban defector Chapman except that he had a world class fastball (reportedly clocked at 102 MPH) and was a newly rich man (Cincinnati signed him to a six year $30 million contract). It has quickly been discovered that he indeed has all the makings of a big league pitcher. He has wowed Cincinnati coaches while fanning opposing batters, and even showing a sinker that people weren't aware he could throw. The big question now is whether he will be a member of the opening day roster. The Reds seems inclined to have him start the season in the minors, but if he stays hot all spring it will be difficult to keep him out of the rotation. Something else to consider is that there is a track record of Cuban pitchers coming to the majors and having early success (Rolando Arrojo, Livan Hernandez, Orlando Hernandez, Jose Contreras).
2: How does the rest of the staff look? The Reds had one of the best bullpens in 2009, sporting a 3.56 ERA (fourth best in MLB) and a .241 BAA (tied for fifth in MLB). Led by closer RHP Francisco Cordero (2.16 ERA, 39 SV in 43 SVO), the Reds look to continue to be strong on the mound late in games. The rotation on the other hand, is a work in progress. If Chapman does indeed start the year in the minors, the rotation will likely consist of RHP Bronson Arroyo (15-13, 3.84 ERA), RHP Aaron Harang (6-14, 4.21 ERA), RHP Johnny Cueto (11-11, 4.41 ERA), RHP Homer Bailey (8-5, 4.53 ERA), and RHP Justin Lehr (5-3, 5.37 ERA). Not the most impressive staff, but there is reason for excitement. Bailey and Cueto will be 24 this season and are on the rise. Combined with Chapman, the Reds have a promising pitching nucleus.
3: How will rookie OFs Chris Dickerson and Drew Stubbs handle a full season? Chris Dickerson (.275, 2 HR, 15 RBI) will start in LF for the Reds after appearing in 97 games in 2009. Dickerson has decent speed and has shown the ability to get on base frequently (.383 OBP in 128 career games), creating hope that he can develop into a leadoff man. CF Drew Stubbs (.267, 8 HR, 17 RBI) played in 42 games after a mid-August call up, and led the Reds in HR in the time period. The Reds are expecting him to develop into a solid contributor in the middle of the lineup.
4: Can the Reds score any runs? Cincinnati scored only 671 runs in 2009, good enough for 24th in the majors. The Reds didn't go and add any big run producers in the offseason so they are clearly expecting to improve from within. A full season of 3B Scott Rolen (.305, 11 HR, 67 RBI), who was acquired from Toronto in 2009, will help matters, if he can stay healthy. The power Stubbs exhibited in his brief appearance in 2009 was promising and the Reds are hoping for more. New addition SS Orlando Cabrera (.284, 9 HR, 77 RBI) is a nice table-setter and has the ability to drive in runs when batters get on in front of him. As a whole though, the lineup just doesn't have much pop to it.
5: Where will the Reds finish the season? Manager Dusty Baker led the Reds to a 78-84 record in 2009. He has a nice young core of players to work with and if some of those youngsters continue to develop Cincinnati could make some noise in 2010. However, they play in a competitive division with a perennial pennant contender in the St. Louis Cardinals atop the division. 2010 won't be the year of the Reds, but there is reason to have hope for the future, especially if Chapman comes in and sets the world afire. You can find the Reds to win the National League at 25/1 and to win the World Series at 50/1 over at Bookmaker.com.
