The All-Star Game has come and gone; time for the so-called second half of the 2008 MLB season. It’s bound to look a lot different from the first half.
At this point of the season, we’re already able to identify a specific group of buyers (anyone in contention for a division lead) and sellers (the Padres, Rockies and Mariners among them). It’s entirely possible we’ll have a chain reaction of trades like we saw earlier this year in the NBA. We’ve already had two major deals – those involving ace pitchers Rich Harden and CC Sabathia. There will be more.
The group of sellers will only increase as we get closer to the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline. Teams on the fence like the Blue Jays and Braves will soon decide whether to fish or cut bait. In this environment, bettors on the World Series futures market will start clustering around the top teams, like the Boston Red Sox (11-4) and the Chicago Cubs (3-1). These clubs have some of the highest payrolls in the league and are more than willing to pay the luxury tax in order to win a championship.
This buying power will make it very difficult for teams like the Tampa Bay Rays (10-1) to keep up. Tampa Bay as a franchise is on the rise under new management; however, the 55-39 Rays lost seven games in a row heading into the All-Star Game. They’re not likely to cash in their future prospects in hope for a quick fix.
The 50-45 New York Yankees (14-1), on the other hand, always have the payroll to absorb large contracts. Hideki Matsui (the team leader with a .404 on-base percentage) is a candidate for season-ending knee surgery, so expect the Yankees to do what they can to add some heft to the batting order. New York was 43-43 at the All-Star break last season and still made the playoffs, so counting them out at this stage would be folly.
The anomaly in this buyer-seller relationship is the Oakland Athletics. Despite their competitive record in the AL West (currently 51-44), the A’s decided to trade Harden in what appears to be a salary-conscious move. General manager Billy Beane has made a living getting top results from the A’s despite their low payroll, and Sean Gallagher, the former No. 5 pitcher in the Cubs rotation who came over in the Harden deal, won his first start with Oakland. The A’s slipped from 60-1 to 75-1 to win the World Series after Harden’s departure; perhaps that downgrade was premature.
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