2011 Week 16 NFL Betting Recap
The playoff picture in NFL betting action could have become a huge mess in Week 16 in both the AFC and the NFC, but in truth, things have more or less been wrapped up in a nice, neat package for the majority of the teams involved thanks to a number of surprising results.
Week 15 was one for the dogs in which the teams that were underdogs in games won almost as many games SU as favorites did. Week 16 was largely no different. Nine of the 16 underdogs covered the NFL odds in this week, and six of them won outright.
We'll start in the AFC at top, where a very convoluted situation became at least a bit clearer this week. The Houston Texans continued their slide, as they were beaten at the gun by the Indianapolis Colts 19-16. Houston couldn't get the ball in the end zone, and it couldn't stop QB Dan Orlovsky down the stretch, and it didn't deserve to win. Now, the Texans are locked into the No. 3 seed after the Baltimore Ravens, New England Patriots, and Pittsburgh Steelers all won their games on Saturday.
Indy now knows that it needs a loss or a win by the St. Louis Rams this coming week to make sure that it still wins the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft. A win and a St. Louis loss really could be damning for the franchise, as it would mean that QB Andrew Luck probably wouldn't be coming to Indianapolis.
Things weren't easy for any of those aforementioned teams at the top of the AFC. The Steelers did shut out the Rams, but QB Ben Roethlisberger was held out of the lineup in favor of QB Charlie Batch. Baltimore got all that it could handle from the Cleveland Browns, while the Patriots were down 17-0 at halftime and needed a late rally to beat the Miami Dolphins 27-24.
The Kansas City Chiefs and San Diego Chargers were beaten by the Oakland Raiders and Detroit Lions respectively to get bounced from the AFC Wild Card race, but the fact that the Denver Broncos were beaten by the Buffalo Bills 40-14 in the second straight bad loss for QB Tim Tebow and company kept the chase in the AFC West alive for Oakland.
The Cincinnati Bengals held off the charging Arizona Cardinals after taking a 23-0 lead, winning 23-16 to move into the No. 6 hole by themselves in the AFC, taking the place of the New York Jets, who were upset by the New York Giants at home on Sunday afternoon. The loss basically took the Jets out of the playoffs, as they need a slew of teams to lose in front of them to get back in the playoff picture.
The Tennessee Titans also kept their playoff hopes alive by beating the Jacksonville Jaguars, though the 23-16 decision wasn't enough to beat the NFL betting lines in Week 16.
On the other side of the conference, the cream really continued to rise to the top. The Green Bay Packers, San Francisco 49ers, and New Orleans Saints all posted wins and all covered the spread in their duels, and as a result, they are locked into the Top 3 spots in the conference. Green Bay is the No. 1 seed after crushing the Chicago Bears on Christmas night and ending their hopes for a Wild Card bid, while the Niners are just one win away from locking up a first round bye. New Orleans clinched the NFC South by beating the Atlanta Falcons on Monday Night Football, but the Falcons clinched their playoff spot when the Bears were beaten the night before.
By virtue of their win at home over the Chargers, the Lions clinched their first playoff berth since 1999, and if they win this week, they will be the No. 5 seed in the NFC playoffs.
The only item that is still up in the air in the NFC is the East Division title. The Dallas Cowboys lost QB Tony Romo early to a hand injury what turned out to be a loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, though the Eagles were already eliminated when the aforementioned Giants won earlier in the day. Now, Dallas and New York play each other, and one will be in the playoffs as the division winner, and the other will be sent home.
There were definitely some milestones that are worth noting that happened in Week 16. QB Drew Brees became the first man in league history to throw for at least 5,000 yards in a single season twice, and he broke QB Dan Marino's record for most passing yards in a single season. He now has 5,087 yards and has a week to play, but QB Tom Brady is within striking distance. Brady has 4,901 yards and a game against a Buffalo Bills secondary that has been known to get shredded in the past in Week 17.
QB Aaron Rodgers threw five TD passes, giving him 45 for the season. If he plays this week (since Week 17's game against Detroit means nothing to the Packers now that they have locked the No. 1 seed), he needs five TDs to tie the all-time single season TD record, held by Brady.
WR Wes Welker caught 12 passes in Saturday's win over the Dolphins, giving him 116 for the season. He became the second man in the history of the game to have more than 115 receptions in two different seasons, and he is going to likely join Cris Carter next week in becoming the only other man to have at least 120 receptions in two different seasons.
QB Cam Newton became the first rookie quarterback to throw for over 3,800 yards in a season last week, and he is likely to become the first to have at least 4,000 passing yards in his first season next week.
Both TEs Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham came within striking distance of the record for most receiving yards in a single season by a tight end. Both need less than 100 yards this week to break TE Kellen Winslow Sr.'s record.
RB Maurice Jones-Drew also likely wrapped up the rushing title this week with his fifth game with at least 100 yards on the ground this year. He has 1,437 yards to lead all rushers.
There are already 13 running backs with over 1,000 yards on the ground this season, and we would expect Shonn Greene (999 yards) and Chris Johnson (986 yards) to join that club next week.
Sixteen receivers have at least 1,000 yards, and Marques Colston and Steve Johnson are the only two that absolutely figure to get there next week, though Nate Washington, Pierre Garcon, and Jabar Gaffney all have chances.
Sixteen quarterbacks have at least 3,000 yards passing, and Michael Vick, Alex Smith, Rex Gross, and Tarvaris Jackson are all nearly certain to reach that mark as well. Seven have thrown for at least 4,000 yards, with Tony Romo, Cam Newton, and potentially Ben Roethlisberger (if playing healthy in Week 17) will likely reach that mark as well. A whopping six quarterbacks will throw for 4,500 yards if Philip Rivers can throw for 186 yards in the finale next week.
Right now, the playoff picture would look like this in the NFC...
(6) Atlanta Falcons @ (3) New Orleans Saints
(5) Detroit Lions @ (4) New York Giants
Byes: (2) San Francisco 49ers & (1) Green Bay Packers
And this in the AFC...
(6) Cincinnati Bengals @ (3) Houston Texans
(5) Pittsburgh Steelers @ (4) Denver Broncos
Byes: (2) Baltimore Ravens & (1) New England Patriots
