2011 Week 17 NFL Betting Preview
There is just one more week remaining in NFL betting action, and you can bet that the festivities should be exciting to say the least.
Playoff bids are going to be on the line all over the place in both the AFC and the NFC, as there are only a grand total of two teams that already know what their playoff assignments are going to be.
We'll begin in the AFC right at the top, where the New England Patriots are going to try to lock up top seed in the conference. They are taking on the Buffalo Bills at Gillette Stadium, and you know that there is going to be a lot on the line for both teams. Buffalo would love to pick up the season sweep of the Pats, while New England is playing for a heck of a lot more than just the top seed in the conference. QB Tom Brady has a legitimate chance to become the all-time leading passer in a single season in league history, and he is going to be going against a team that picked him off four times when the two teams met at Ralph Wilson Stadium. There is a reason why the Patriots are favored by 11.5 points on the Week 17 odds.
If the Pats happen to lose, the team that benefits the most is the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens can win the AFC North and clinch no worse than the No. 2 seed in the AFC by beating the Cincinnati Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium in what will be just the second sold out game of the season for the hosts. A Baltimore win and a New England loss puts the Ravens in the top seed in the conference. A Baltimore win or a Pittsburgh Steelers loss against the Cleveland Browns would sew up the AFC North title for the Ravens. However, Cincinnati needs a win or losses by the Jets and Raiders or Broncos to get the No. 6 seed in the AFC.
Baltimore is favored by 2.5 in the Queen City on Sunday, while the Steelers are still off the board as of Wednesday until the status of QB Ben Roethlisberger is determined. Big Ben sat out last week with an ankle injury. The runner up of Baltimore and Pittsburgh will be the No. 5 seed and hit the road at the AFC West winner in Wild Card weekend next week.
Should Cincinnati lose, the door opens up for a number of teams. The first team in line is the Oakland Raiders. The silver and black are three point home favorites against the San Diego Chargers on Sunday, and a win will put them in the playoffs with either a Bengals loss or a loss by the Denver Broncos. Denver can only get into the playoffs with a win over the Kansas City Chiefs or a loss by the Raiders, which would give QB Tim Tebow and company the AFC West crown. The Broncos cannot win the last AFC Wild Card spot. They are favored by 3.5 against the Kansas City Chiefs at home. Oakland is eliminated from the postseason with a defeat.
The Raiders either need to lose or to win the AFC West to get the Tennessee Titans back into the playoff hunt. The Titans are on the road at the Houston Texans on Sunday. Houston has lost two games in a row, but it has absolutely nothing to play for in this one, knowing that it will be hosting the No. 6 seed in the AFC next week in its first playoff game in team history. Tennessee is favored by 2.5, and it needs a win, a Cincinnati loss, and two of the three of a Jets loss, a Broncos win, or Raiders win to get into the postseason (all three would eliminate it, though).
And that leaves the New York Jets as the only other team with a shot in the AFC. They shot themselves in the foot last week when they were beaten by the New York Giants at home. Now, they need a win against the Miami Dolphins as one point underdogs, a Cincinnati loss, a Tennessee loss, and at least one of the Raiders or Broncos to lose to backdoor their way into the postseason.
Fortunately, the NFC is a heck of a lot easier to figure out.
The Green Bay Packers are already the top seed in the playoffs, but the other first round bye still has to be determined. The San Francisco 49ers will own it if they can beat the St. Louis Rams as 10.5 point favorites in the regular season finale, but if not and the New Orleans Saints beat the Carolina Panthers as nine point favorites, the boys from the Bayou will get next week off instead. The runner up of these two will be the No. 3 seed.
The Detroit Lions and Atlanta Falcons both already know that they are going to be Wild Cards in the playoffs, and there is a question as to whether either one is going to care about being the No. 5 or No. 6 seed. Detroit has the inside edge right now, knowing that it needs a win against the Packers as 3.5 point favorites at Lambeau Field or a loss by the Falcons as 12 point favorites over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to get the No. 5 seed. Atlanta needs a win and a Detroit loss to move up to No. 5.
The biggest game of the weekend though, is on Sunday Night Football, and it will determine whether the New York Giants or Dallas Cowboys win the NFC East. The Cowboys had a number of chances to put the division title away, but they couldn't do it, and now, they have to win on the road at MetLife Stadium to get the job done. New York was able to win in Big D at the death three weeks ago on Sunday Night Football, and it is favored by a field goal to clinch the division and move on to host a first round playoff game next week.
The only other real game of note pits the Indianapolis Colts against the Jacksonville Jaguars. If the Colts win that game to finish the season on a three-game winning streak, they are likely to blow having the first pick in the NFL Draft. An Indy loss or a St. Louis win gives the Colts the victory in the "Suck for Luck Sweepstakes" and gives them the first shot to draft QB Andrew Luck with the top pick in the NFL Draft. A Rams loss parlayed with an Indianapolis win gives St. Louis that opportunity instead.
