2012 Divisional Round NFL Betting Preview

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Posted by Adam Marko on 01.11.2012

Four pretenders have already been eliminated for the NFL playoffs, and on Saturday and Sunday this week, the big boys will be separated from the men in the battle to get to the NFL’s version of the Final Four.

 

In the AFC, there are definitely some big time surprises that are here in the playoffs. At the outset of the season, the Houston Texans were considered trendy picks to win the AFC South, but getting a playoff win would have seemed like a bit of a lofty goal. Meanwhile, no one was picking the Denver Broncos to be in the playoffs still, especially after starting off 1-4 on the season, and even more especially after having to backdoor their way into the postseason on the final day of the regular season. Whereas teams that have been powerhouses in the conference over the course of the last few years like the San Diego Chargers, New York Jets, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Indianapolis Colts are sitting on the sidelines for the rest of the year, Houston and Denver are still having at it, though this week, they are going to get tests the size that they haven’t seen this year.

 

For the Texans, their game on Sunday against the Baltimore Ravens is going to be monumental for sure. Last week’s win over the Cincinnati Bengals was the biggest win in franchise history, as it was the first time that the team played in, hosted, and eventually won a postseason game. Now, Houston has to come on the road to take on the Ravens, who were the juggernauts this season in the AFC North. Baltimore already tamed the Texans once this year back in Week 5, and that was before both QB Matt Schaub and QB Matt Leinart were injured. So now, not only does Houston have to come on the road to play in a playoff game for the first time ever, but it also has to do so once again with a third string quarterback.

 

No one is really expecting the Ravens to struggle in this one, especially since it is the first time that they are going to be playing a home playoff game in the QB Joe Flacco era. Baltimore is favored by 7.5, and the ‘total’ is easily the lowest of the weekend at just 36.5.

 

Meanwhile, the Broncos were facing the toughest task of all of the division winners last week, as they took on the Pittsburgh Steelers and were able to eke out an overtime victory. This is really the game of note for QB Tim Tebow, though. He has probably ensured that he will be the starting quarterback for this club going into the offseason regardless of what happens against the New England Patriots on Sunday, but in order to win this game, he is probably going to have to complete more than just 10 passes. New England romped the Broncos just a month ago with a huge offensive second half, and the defense seemed to figure out what Tebow was doing during the second stanza as well.

 

New England is favored by 13.5 points, but we aren’t all that sure that that much is justified. After all, the Pats have lost three playoff games in a row, including two in a row right here at Gillette Stadium, and they are 0-6 ATS in their last six in the postseason. Denver was the only playoff team that they beat this year, and the only other two games that they played against playoff teams were losses to the Giants and Steelers. QB Tom Brady has only averaged 232.0 yards per game and has seven TDs and seven INTs in his last four playoff games, and the team hasn’t scored more than 21 in any of the four. Still, the ‘total’ clocks in at 50.5, knowing that there were only three games all season long in which New England scored fewer than 27 points.

 

Should New England win on Saturday, it will host the AFC Championship Game. If Denver pulls off the upset, either the Ravens or Texans will host the game next Sunday.

 

In the NFC, the two postseason matchups could be more intense. The New York Giants and New Orleans Saints were both tremendous victors in Wild Card weekend, and if both play like that this weekend, they could be playing each other in the NFC Championship Game.

 

The Saints are the one road team favored this weekend, and for good reason. The offense is coming off of a record breaking season, as QB Drew Brees threw for over 5,400 yards. Even better was this first playoff game, and New Orleans broke a record for most yards in a playoff game with 626. However, the defense for the San Francisco 49ers, the team that it is playing against on Saturday, is as legitimate as it will run into in the playoffs. This is the first time since 2002 that the Niners are in the postseason, and Head Coach Jim Harbaugh was brought here to win games like this one. A win would validate QB Alex Smith as a starting quarterback in this league. That being said, the Saints are favored by 3.5, and the ‘total’ is 47.5.

 

And then there are the Green Bay Packers, who went 15-1 in the regular season and were just one brutal game against the Kansas City Chiefs away from being a perfect club searching for the elusive 19-0 season. One would like to think that these last two games before the Super Bowl shouldn’t be the biggest hassle in the world, but this meeting against the New York Giants could be tremendously difficult. QB Eli Manning and the rest of the boys in blue nearly beat the Packers just a couple of months ago, as it was a game that came down to the wire.

 

The last time that the Giants played a game like that against a team that was undefeated that late in the season, they ended up winning the Super Bowl against a team just like this one that was trying to cap off an immortal season. Before beating the 18-0 Patriots in the Super Bowl though, the G-Men beat these Packers right here in this venue at Lambeau Field in the last game for QB Brett Favre in green.

 

New York is a trendy upset pick, but it is still a nine point underdog. The ‘total’ of 52.5 is the highest on the board this week.

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