If you put 12 knowledgeable NFL football fans in a room and ask them to predict who will win Super Bowl XLIII, you’ll get 12 votes for the New England Patriots. They won every other game in the 2007 campaign except the big one, which the New York Giants stole as 12.5-point underdogs. But that doesn’t necessarily mean you should take the Patriots on the Super Bowl futures market.
Placing a futures bet requires a different approach than handicapping a single-game matchup. There are several more possible outcomes than either Team A or Team B winning; in the case of this year’s NFL championship, there are four strong contenders and a handful of compelling dark horses, all capable of winning the title.
The latest betting odds to win the Super Bowl at Bookmaker.com have the Patriots at +300. Right away, there is a disincentive to bet on New England: That money will be tied up until Feb. 1, 2009. If I can place a bet today on a +300 underdog in a baseball game and get paid tomorrow, that’s much more valuable to me, because I can reinvest my earnings right away. This is how a bankroll is built.
Since there are so many potential Super Bowl winners, and since I want a larger payout if I can’t touch my investment until February, it makes sense to look farther down the odds list. Each of these teams will be either overvalued or undervalued in the betting market. Over time, the biggest returns on investment will come from choosing the teams that win more often than expected.
Let’s look at the Green Bay Packers as one example. They’re priced at +2500 following the definitive loss of quarterback Brett Favre’s services. It’s entirely possible that the betting public has overreacted to the trade that sent Favre to the New York Jets, and that Green Bay is now available at a discount.
The Packers went 13-3 (12-3-1 against the spread) last year and were upset by the Giants in overtime in the NFC Championship Game. Aaron Rodgers has the earmarks of a good starting quarterback in the NFL, although he’s relatively untested. The rest of this young Packers team should be improved after their experience in 2007. Green Bay’s chances of winning the Super Bowl might be small, but are they really just four percent? You be the judge.
