In 2007 the most profitable NFL team was the Green Bay Packers. If you wagered on every Green Bay Packers game including the postseason for the same amount of money, a $100 player would have made about $860.00. The top 5 NFL teams in units made were the Packers (+8.6), Chargers (+8.5), Browns (+7.6), Giants (+7.4) and the Jaguars (5.4).
The bottom 5 money making teams or the best fades were the Baltimore Ravens at -11.3 units. Denver, San Francisco and St. Louis all finished -7.1 units and both the Saints and Bears were -5 units.
When it comes to betting totals the best over team in the NFL was Green Bay and Jacksonville. Both went over 76.5% of the time last year in the regular and postseason. Other good over teams were Denver (75%), Detroit and Arizona (68.8%) and Oakland and Baltimore (66.7%).
Tennessee was the best under team in football, going under 11 of 16 times. Both San Francisco and Carolina went under 62.5% of the time.
The Super Bowl Champion New York Giants ended the season very hot and covered 70% of their games last year including the post season. Only Green Bay (76.47%) and San Diego (73.68%) were better teams against the spread.
Baltimore covered 3 of 16 games last year with Denver, St. Louis and San Francisco all only covering 5 of 16 games.
Some teams play better at home than the road and the same thing can be said when it comes to covering the point-spread. The best teams ATS last year in the regular season at home were Cleveland (7-1), San Diego (7-1), Green Bay (6-1-1) and Seattle (6-1-1).
The Kansas City Chiefs have a reputation of having the best home field advantage in football but bettors wouldn't know it. Kansas City went 1-6-1 ATS at home in 2007, while Miami, Oakland, New Orleans, St. Louis and Philadelphia all went 2-6 ATS at home.
As bad as Kansas City was for bettors at home, they were complete opposite on the road. Kansas City, along with Jacksonville, Philadelphia and Green Bay all finished 6-2 ATS on the road.
Baltimore never covered a game on the road last year going 0-8 against the spread, a bookmakers dream. The Broncos weren't much better at 1-7 ATS while Houston, Detroit, and San Francisco all went 2-6 ATS away from home.
The Cleveland Browns were the best team covering the spread as a favorite. The Browns went 8-1 as a favorite while San Diego was 10-3 when favored to win and the New England Patriots who went undefeated during the regular season went 10-6 ATS. The Patriots were favored in all 16 games.
If you can believe it, the Ravens were favorites eight times last year (mostly in first half) and only covered one of these games. The Raiders (0-4) and Chiefs (0-3-1) failed to cover each time they were favored in 2007.
So what does it mean for 2008? That's a good question. Some teams will have a continuing trend of good or bad spread records that could last a few days. One team who has been covering the spread at an alarming rate over the last few years it the Patriots. It is likely the Patriots could be favored in all 16 games again this year. Look for Las Vegas to overvalue the Patriots this year and bettors could make money betting against the Patriots this season while a team like the Miami Dolphins have struggled covering the number in recent years and could find themselves more competitive than what the bookmakers are thinking and end up with a winning spread record.
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