Super Bowl 46 Betting Preview
After months of clashes on the gridiron, NFL betting fans are down to just one more game to sink their teeth into, and it is the biggest one of the year. Super Bowl 46 is just mere days away, and the New York Giants and the New England Patriots are set to do battle at Lucas Oil Field in Indianapolis.
The Patriots (15-3 SU, 10-8 ATS) are the AFC representatives, but the argument could be made that they really weren’t the deserving team that should have been here in the biggest game of the year. In the AFC Championship Game, they had to survive against the Baltimore Ravens, who were just a split second for WR Lee Evans holding onto the football away from winning the game and being in the big one. Even with that catch not being made, the Ravens still should have forced the game into overtime with a field goal by K Billy Cundiff just before the end of regulation.
The 23-20 triumph was the first win of the entire season for the Patriots against a team that finished the year above .500. However, it also marked the third time this year that New England failed to cover the spread against a team that finished above .500. In fairness to New England, it played the schedule that it was given, and it hasn’t been beaten since losing to none other than these Giants back on November 6th.
What isn’t deniable is just how good this New England offense can be. Sure, QB Tom Brady didn’t have his best game against the Ravens two weeks ago, but he is still the truly dominating quarterback out of the AFC this year. Brady threw for 5,239 yards in the regular season, the second most in the league (and in league history), and when he was on his game, seemingly no one stopped him and his teammates.
WR Wes Welker has had a relatively quiet postseason, racking up just over 100 yards in total in two games, but he is still tremendously dangerous. Welker had 122 catches this year and came up with a team best 1,573 yards and nine TDs.
But of course, the play of those tight ends is what is really the scariest for the Giants. TE Rob Gronkowski has been limited in practice quite a bit over the course of the last week and change with an ankle injury, but we have very little doubt about the fact that he will play when push comes to shove for the Super Bowl. He and TE Aaron Hernandez were clearly the best tandem of tight ends in the league, as the two came up with 169 receptions, 2,237 yards, and 25 total TDs between them (and that came with Hernandez missing two games this year as well!).
The Giants (12-7 SU, 11-7-1 ATS) are going to have to counter with a vicious pass rush. This unit was damaged all year long with DEs Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora battling injuries. All of the top linemen for the G-Men are back in the saddle though, and when added to DE Jason Pierre-Paul, the team leader in sacks, the unit is as terrifying as could be. If the offensive line of the Patriots, which could be without T Sebastian Vollmer as they have been for the entire postseason, can’t figure out how to slow the men on the other side of the line down, the Brady Bunch could have some real problems.
Of course, QB Eli Manning is the center of attention this weekend as well. He is playing in his brother, QB Peyton Manning’s home stadium, and he has the chance to win his second Super Bowl title, one more than his big brother. Eli came just up just short of 5,000 passing yards in the regular season, and the argument could be made that this year was a significantly better year for Eli than Peyton ever had.
WR Victor Cruz went from a receiver that just barely was on the depth chart at the start of the season to one of the best in the game this year. He picked up the slack for WR Mario Manningham, who has disappeared just a bit with the emergence of Cruz. Manningham and WR Hakeem Nicks are both crucial to this offense though, as they are still top flight targets for Manning.
The offensive line for New York has been beat up all season long as well, and the unit really struggled in the NFC Championship Game against the San Francisco 49ers. Manning has taken his licks and has still found ways to win games in spite of his interceptions, which makes this a very intriguing showdown if the Patriots, behind leading sack man DE Mark Anderson can put pressure on him.
The key to this game might be which team can run the ball better. The Giants ranked dead last in the NFL this year in rushing, but both RBs Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs have the ability to do some real damage with all of their experience. The Patriots don’t have a running back that carried the ball even 200 times this year, and there were four different backs that started games over the course of the regular season.
Earlier this year, Manning and the crew were able to come into Gillette Stadium and hand Brady a loss, something that hadn’t happened in the regular season since before these two teams met in the Super Bowl four years ago. New York had New England’s number that day as well thanks to an epic late game drive capped by Manning’s TD pass to WR Plaxico Burress to end what was the perfect season for the Patriots.
In that Super Bowl four years ago, New England was the decided 12 point favorite. This time around, the roles are a heck of a lot closer. The Patriots have the significantly better record of these two teams, but they are only favored by a field goal, and a number of pundits are counting on the upset. New York has a reported 56 percent of the betting at this point, yet the spread has held relatively consistent all week. The ‘total’ of 55 is one of the highest in Super Bowl history, and it is a show of just how strong these two offenses have the potential to be, especially on the turf at Lucas Oil Field.
The Giants enter this one at 8-1 ATS in their last nine playoff games. New England is 1-8 ATS in its last nine in the postseason.
These two have met three times since December 2007. The Giants are 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS in those games, including that upset in Super Bowl 42.
