The NFL playoffs are finally here with four wild-card weekend games. Last week’s picks went 7-7 with the year-to-date mark at 118-115-7 ATS.
The Best Bets were more unfortunate last week with San Francisco giving up two late touchdowns at St. Louis and failing to cover the 10 ½-points (winning 34-27). The yearly record in that category is 20-23-2 ATS.
All odds courtesy of Bookmaker.eu
Cincinnati(+3)atHouston – Saturday 4:30 pm ET
Houston (10-6 SU, 9-5-2 ATS) is making its first playoff appearance in franchise history and deserves a ton of credit for winning the AFC South without quarterback Matt Schaub. Of course, it did help that Indy’s Peyton Manning didn’t play a down this year. Wide receiver Andre Johnson (hamstring) will play, but how effective will he be?
Cincinnati (9-7 SU,8-6-2 ATS) made the playoffs two years ago, losing 24-14 at home to the Jets. That was with Carson Palmer at quarterback and the team now has his long term replacement in A.J. Dalton. Dalton shows tremendous poiseand will put up points, but can the defense stop Houston’s second-ranked rushing attack?
This is a rare battle of rookie quarterbacks with third-string T.J. Yates pressed into duty after backup Matt Leinart also got hurt. Houston has lost three games in a row, although the last one was meaningless. This looks like a close game, much like the first one on Dec. 11 that Houston won 20-19 in Cincy. It should come down to a field goal either way.
Pick: Cincinnati (+3)
Detroit(+10 ½)atNew Orleans- Saturday 8:00 pm ET
Detroit (10-6 SU, 7-7-2 ATS) seems to have won the wild-card ‘booby prize’ having to play in this game, but they only have themselves to blame. They lost 45-41 last week at a Green Bay team that had nothing to play and would have had a trip to the Big Apple to face the Giants instead. That would have been a hard task, but not this hard!
New Orleans (13-3 SU, 12-4 ATS) might have been the AFC’s top seed with its record, but is No. 3 in the NFC behind Green Bay and San Francisco. This is an incredible home team at 8-0 SUand ATS, scoring 41.1 PPG there and allowing 17.9 PPG. One of those games was a 31-17 home win over Detroit on Sunday night, December 4.
That Lions game was closer than the score indicates with Detroit winning time-of-possession, but getting hurt by penalties. Matthew Stafford will be able to move the ball, but a lack of a running game will ultimately be their downfall. Offensively, the Saints will not be stopped against a reeling defense that allowed 480 yards and six TDs to Packers backup Matt Flynn.
Pick: New Orleans(-10 ½)
Atlanta(+3) atNY Giants- Sunday 1:00 pm ET
Atlanta (10-6 SU, 7-8-1 ATS) is happy to avoid New Orleans in the first round, but now they have to play outside. The last time we saw Atlanta in the playoffs, it lost 48-21 as 1-point home favorites to Green Bay in the divisional roundlast year. That was an embarrassing performance for the whole team.
The Giants (9-7 SU, 8-7-1 ATS)just had two big wins over the Jets and Cowboys and now fans are dreaming about another magical Super Bowl run like 2007. Their pass rush and crowd noise should make things very hard on Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan. On the other side, look for Giants quarterback Eli Manning to have a very solid day.
Temperatures areforecasted in the 30s and a chance of rain. The Falcons have only played one outdoor game since October and will have to adjust quickly. This looks like a spread that should be at least 3 ½ as the G-Men are the slightly better team even on a neutral field.
Pick:NY Giants (-3)
Pittsburgh (-8) at Denver- Sunday 4:30 pm ET
Pittsburgh (12-4 SU, 7-9 ATS) may be the best team in the AFC if healthy, but is far from it. Ben Roethlisberger is playing with a badly sprained ankle and running back Rashard Mendenhall (knee) is out for the year. That puts a lot of pressure on new featured back Isaac Redman. Throw in safety Ryan Clark (spleen) also being out this game and they have a lot to overcome.
Denver (8-8 SU, 7-9 ATS) overcame major obstacles after starting the season 1-4. Tim Tebow captivated the nation by beginning 7-1 as a starter, but the team has lost its last three and scored just 13.3 PPG to boot. Backing into the playoffs due to Oakland losing last week doesn’t do much for team confidence.
The total for this game is just 34, so it’s expected to be very low scoring. No one knows how ‘Big Ben’ will look, but we do know Tebow can’t throw against this secondary even with Clark out. It’s also hard to see Denver running consistently I can see Pittsburgh extending their lead to double-digits in the fourth quarter.
Pick:Pittsburgh(-8)
