Sports Interaction betting analyst Frank Doyle makes his picks for Super Bowl XLIV. He is 32-19-1, .628 (7-3-0, .700 in the playoffs), for the season so far.

Indianapolis is a six point favorite for the Super Bowl with Sports Interaction, and from a bookmakers’ point of view, that’s a really great line. It’s very hard to pick either side of it. It’s just long enough to offer value on the Saints, even though every other factor points to Indianapolis.

But I’m still going with the Saints to cover six. The Colts have never been a team to stomp you into the dirt. Beat you certainly, and I can find no evidence to suggest a bet on the Saints straight up is worthwhile. I think the Colts will do enough to win, but they won’t crush the Saints. It’ll be competitive on the scoreboard, even if the victory is never really in doubt. If the Colts are down two with 1:30 left on the clock, on their own twenty yard line, what do you think is going to happen? Still. Saints +6 with Sports Interaction is the first pick.

Combined with that analysis, I’m also going for the under 57 total points scored. I don’t think it’ll be a shootout and the weather has been wet in Miami this week. It’s hard to watch a game when you’ve taken the under as everything that happens is a blow, one way or another, but if you want to win some money I think under 57 total points scored is the way to go.

The MVP market is an interesting way to maybe pull off a big win. Sports Interaction has made Peyton Manning an even money favorite, the shortest price I can remember for MVP in a Super Bowl, and Drew Brees is very short also, at +300. But there’s no real fun betting a big market like that at short odds, so I have two recommendations for small stake bets with potentially big rewards.

Firstly, the Colts’ wide receiver Pierre Garcon looks like value at +1500 with Sports Interaction. Wide receivers have won three of the past five MVPs – Deion Branch, Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes. Maybe it’s a trend.

The other possibility is the Saints’ safety Darren Sharper at +3000 with Sports Interaction. The logic here is that if the Saints are to have any chance, they have to get after Peyton. What better way to get after him than some key interceptions, and Sharper broke Ed Reed’s record for interception return yards in a season this year with 376. Peyton is a deserving favorite for MVP, but Sharper is a good interest bet. Especially at such a big, fat price.