Giants over Patriots in final NFL pick
The Super Bowl 46 matchup between the New England Patriots and New York Giants is one of the most anticipated inyears. The downside is that the 2011 NFL season will be over when the game ends.
This is also the last NFL pick of the season. The year-to-date mark is at 123-120-7 ATS after choosing both New England and the Giants during the conference championships. The former failed to cover as seven-point favorites at home against Baltimore (23-20 win), while the G-Men won outright (20-17 OT) in San Francisco as 2 ½-point ‘dogs.
Note there is a lot of history riding on this game as well as revenge. The Giants upset New England as huge underdogs in the Super Bowl four years ago, ending their perfect season. The win would have given Bill Belichick and Tom Brady their fourth title, which would have tied the record for a coach (Chuck Noll) and quarterbacks (Terry Bradshaw and Joe Montana).
Brady and Belichickeach get a shot at redemption and that elusive fourth ring. Giants coach Tom Coughlin and quarterback Eli Manning can also get their second ring, which would put them in some elite company and greatly increase their Hall-of-Fame chances down the line.
NY Giants(+3)vs. New England – Sunday6:30 pm ET
This spread come from Bookmaker.eu and you have to lay -120 juice with the Giants to get the three points. The total sits at 54 ½-points, which is down very slightly from the opening of 55-55 ½-points.
There are also hundreds of props available as well, a bunch of which were highlighted in an earlier article. A key one is how many receiving yards New England tight end Rob Gronkowski will get. He’s dealing with a serious ankle sprain and how he responds could be the determining factor of this game.
The first thing to do when handicapping is analyze the matchups. New England (15-3 SU, 10-8 ATS) has won 10 games in a row after ironically losing at home to the Giants (24-20 as nine-point favorites) on November 6th. That was a 10-3 game at the end of three quarters, but both offenses exploded late and Eli Manning capped off the winning drive with 15 seconds remaining.
Tom Brady had two interceptions in that game and struggled against the Giants pass rush. New England lost the turnover battle 4-2 overall. That turnover differential can’t happen again this Sunday or it will be an easy Giants win. Brady in particular must be interception-free.
New England ranked third in the NFL in points scored this year (32.1 PPG). They then scored 45 points in the opening playoff round against Denver before having problems with Baltimore last game. The Ravens can pressure the quarterback, much like the Giants, and it will be interesting to see if Brady will throw it 35 times, especially with ‘Gronk’ playing injured.
The other option is to run the ball more with the combination of BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Danny Woodhead and possibly rookie Stevan Ridley. The offensive line should be able to move the Giants defenders, especially with tackle Sebastian Vollmer back. The question is whether the Pats will take the emphasis away from Brady after riding him all season.
The Giants (12-7 SU, 11-7-1 ATS) only won nine games during the regular season and lost four straight at one point beginning mid-November. That seems like ancient history after winning their last five, all elimination games, including on the road at Green Bay and San Francisco the last two.
Manning has led the way during this surge. He has 12 touchdown passes versus just two picks over the last five contests. He took a beating at San Fran, but kept getting back up and some are even giving him the quarterback advantage over Brady. That remains to be seen, but it’s possible as the Giants receivers against the poor Patriots secondary is the biggest matchup advantage of the game.
The Giants have a pretty good run duo of Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs, although they did rank 32nd overall in rushing yards during the regular season. Bradshaw is playing through a foot injury, but I don’t think the Giants want to run too much anyhow, just enough to set up the pass.
Looking at the total, the final score would have to be something like 29-26 in order for it to go ‘over’ the 54 ½-points. I certainly don’t see New England reaching the 30-point plateau and I don’t see the Giants getting there either. This will be something along the lines of a 27-24 final, with the underdog coming out on top.
Pick:NY Giants (+3) and the ‘under’ 54 ½-points.
