How do you fall from No. 1 to No. 13 in the world rankings, go 19 months without a victory and still wind up as the golf betting favorite to win the US Open at the Congressional Country Club in Bethesda, Maryland, June 16-19? You probably have to have the cache and name recognition of Tiger Woods.
To be fair, Woods is only the co-favorite for the second golf Major of the year, locked at odds of 10/1 with Phil Mickelson. But really, does Tiger deserve even that distinction? When he steps up to the first tee at Congressional, Woods will have gone 641 days without a victory in the Western Hemisphere and 1081 days, or back to the 2008 US Open, when he last captured a Major. Woods failed to win in 11 starts in 2010 and is winless in eight outings this year. And, when last we saw the 14-time Major winner, he was limping off Sawgrass, complaining of an injured knee.
So why is Woods the co-favorite? Sportsbooks, like golf betting fans, are fearful of missing the event that Woods, who never has lacked for determination, puts it all together for four rounds. Should Woods, who won the US Open in 2008 at odds of 3/2, suddenly find his stroke, no one wants to be asked, "How could you not take Tiger at 10/1?" So, until he plays on crutches, both sportsbooks and golf betting enthusiasts will view Woods with a wary mixture of trepidation and respect.
Mickelson, who is ranked No. 4 in the world, won the Shell Open last month and has played will this year, is a logical alternative to Woods. The problem for Lefty is his fairway accuracy, which currently resides at 52 percent. If Mickelson can't find the fairway at the US Open, where the rough is notoriously nasty, he has no chance of success.
Woods and Mickelson are at the top of the odds board because people (OK, bettors) actually can pick either one of them out of a line-up. But try that with Luke Donald, Lee Westwood or Martin Kaymer, the Nos. 1, 2 and 3 ranked players in the world.
Donald opened as the 12/1 third choice but you could make the case that if he had a higher profile, Donald should be the favorite. All Donald has done this year is win the European PGA Championship to take over the No. 1 ranking while fashioning seven top 10 finishes in eight starts, including a win at the Accenture Match Play Championship and fourth place finishes at The Masters and Players Championship. We'll say it again: Donald should be the favorite.
Westwood, who like Donald still is seeking his first Major, is offered at odds of 14/1. The former No. 1 finished third at the 2008 US Open but has yet to notch a top 10 finish in five US starts this season.
Kaymer, yet another golfer who has been ranked No. 1 in the world since Woods' fall from grace, is listed at odds of 20/1 to win the US Open. The German actually owns a Major triumph, winning the 2010 PGA Championship and has a victory this year, an eight-stroke waltz at the Abu Dhabi Golf Championship in January. "Der Dominator" certainly is worth a look at 20/1.
Ranked No. 6 in the world, Rory McIlroy is held at odds of 16/1 to win the US Open. The 22-year-old Irishman certainly has the game to succeed but has he recovered mentally from his epic collapse in The Masters to compete at Congressional?
Defending US Open champion Graeme McDowell, Matt Kuchar, Dustin Johnson, Hunter Mahan and Nick Watney each are offered at odds of 25/1. McDowell has been off his game of late, missing the cut in three of his last six events while finishing no better than 33rd in any of them. Kuchar, Mahan and Watney have played consistently good golf this year and any of them could break through with a top performance. Johnson is a great ball striker but his putting has been awful.
Want bigger odds? Try Bubba Watson, Jim Furyk, Masters Champion Charl Schwartzel, K.J.Choi, Paul Casey or Justin Rose at 33/1.
The course at Congressional is long and tough and three holes, the par 5, 555-yard No. 6, par 3, 218-yard No. 10, and par 4, 523-yard No. 18, could help decide the winner. Water plays a role on each hole and staying dry will be a key to victory.
As difficult as the course is, finding the winner of this year's US Open should be every bit as challenging for golf betting fans.
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