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Old 04-24-2019, 03:18 AM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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here is how we did it back in the day. pre-internet. using boxscores from the daily paper.
so much easier now.
I will do an example game for ya'. from 4/23 Arizona vs Pittsburgh weaver vs Williams.

rate team runs/g & starting pitcher & bullpen. sports-ref makes it real easy to do it.

go to sports-reference.com goto 2019 season/AL team stats/batting.
write down each teams Runs/g. then at the bottom write down the AL runs/g.

for AL avg team scores 4.7 runs/g … For NL 4.6

for Az 5.4, Pitt 3.6

Now hover mouse over teams and all the teams will spear. move mouse over 'Arizona' and click. then scroll down a little and click on 'Pitching'
They make it real easy for ya'. pitchers are grouped by starters 'sp' and relievers 'RP'
then at bottom pitchers with ' ' for pos. more relievers.
find weaver you will see he started 4 games pitched 20.2 innings (change to 20.7) and he allowed 10 runs (I use runs because an unearned run will beat you just like and earned one). divide ip by games (20.7/4 = 5.2 ) divide runs by games (10/4 = 2.5....
weaver would be expected to go 5.2 innings and allow 2.5 runs.
Now the bullpen. total up the inning whole numbers first (example 14.2 , drop the .2 and just total the 14) don't include pitchers who are on the 40-man roster, 10-day DL or who have started a game. after you get a total of the whole numbers for AZ BP yesterday was 70 (dropping the .1s and .2s), go back and total up the .1s and .2s. once again not including someone who started a game, 40-man roster or 10-day DL.

yesterday it would total .6 for the relievers. divide that by .3= 2
. add that to the whole innings 70+2 = 72.

Now total bull pen runs (once again eliminate anyone who started a game, 40-man roster, 10-day dl) total for yesterday is 44.
ok, the bullpen allowed 44 runs in 72 innings. now, divide runs/ip = 44/72 = .61

bullpen allows .61 runs per inning. this includes inherited runners.
Now get total game pitching. weaver expected to go 5.2 inn, allow 2.5 runs. that leaves 3.8 inn for bull pen @ .61 RUN PER INNING. 3.8 * .61 = 2.3.
then add 2.5 +2.3 Az projected to allow 4.8 runs
Then do the same thing with Pit start Williams and Pit bull pen. you would have gotten Williams 6.1 Proj inn and 2 Proj runs allowed. Pit bull Pen little better allowing .51 runs per inning. so proj bp innings for pit 9 - 6.1 = 2.9 * .51 = 1.5
so pitt pitchers proj to allow 3.5 runs to az...
now take runs scored by each team and adjust it by the team pitching proj runs allowed adjusted by runs/g for the league.
formula is this pitt runs/g +Az RunsAll/g - NL Avg runs/G
3.6+3.5-4.6 = 2.5 Proj runs Pitt vs Az pitching on 4/23 - 2.5 runs. doing same for AZ
5.4+4.8-4.6 = 5.6 Proj runs Az vs Pit Pitching on 4/23 - 5.6 runs.
Arizona won the game 2-1, weaver went 6, allowed 1 run, BP 2 IP, allowed 0.
Williams went 7, allowed 2 runs, BP 3 IP, allowed 0

the games that stand out using this are 2 categories. Good pitchers deGrom, verlander and the like. Tampa's entire staff. everybody already knows them and you will pay heaby price to bet them. the best category was dogs.
We would uncover some pretty good dogs and some fairly big ones with it. especially later on in the season. I started to try to do it. but, doing it for 30 teams every day was more than I could manage. WE also used regression which involved tracking team scoring and difference from projected score by day, starter runs allowed & diff from projected & bull Pen runs allowed/per Inn and diff from projected. but, that is time consuming as well. Hope this helps you. If you have any questions, feel free to contact me here.
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