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Old 03-25-2020, 07:36 AM
goirish25 goirish25 is offline
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Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Will Rogers Downs - Race #2
Picks Notes
#5 Wil of Fortune ML favorite blew a 3-length lead late last time against state breds at RP when last seen in December but looms the controlling speed here, and shortens up a half-furlong too; looks long gone.
#8 Ikon Who Class dropper hasn't been seen since August, so he may need this, but he's been facing much better, and his dirt runs are solid, plus, aside from the chalk, this is a weak group; do not ignore.
Daring Ego Fellow RP shipper is another coming off a December layoff, and he's got some hit or miss form, but his sprints have been better than his routes, so he can get a piece here; exotics contender.
Race Summary You won't get rich on the 5 but that 5-2 ML seems like a big overlay, as a repeat of his last, or anything close to it, might lap this field, so make an aggressive win or place bet at 2-1 or better, though you can get some built-in value by singling him to kick off the early Pk4, since that's not a move the public likes to employ to start a sequence, which means you can turn him into more value than the tote suggests, while also allowing yourself for more coverage in the deeper, surrounding legs.

Will Rogers Downs - Race #6
Picks Notes
#3 Euro Surprise Remington invader was facing Ok-breds on debut, and it came in December, but he ran in a very fast race for the level, which means that 5th was better than it looks, and it's not like there are any tigers singed on here; look out.
#8 Ninethirtyturbo ML favorite chased then tired but was a clear 2nd on debut against better in an MCL at Sam Houston, and this outside attack post is perfect for that running style, though at 2-1 he has no margin for error either; scary, but no lock.
#4 Baptism Firster goes for a solid enough Dixon barn (12%) and shows several encouraging morning drills for this unveiling, highlighted by the 1/30 bullet, and note that Kimes is 25% when he rides for the barn, which is a big angle; looks live.
Race Summary You could make a case that the 3 should be favored, so to see him as the third-choice on the ML makes him very intriguing, and if the 4 doesn't take any money on debut the pick becomes that much more appealing, so play him to win and place, and make sure to use him to kick off the late Pk4 as well, since there are three here who will take plenty of play, and the other two are likely to take more of it, which means a lot of tickets will be knocked out right off the bat.

Will Rogers Downs - Race #8
Picks Notes
#7 Word to the Wise Impressive debut winner dueled hard throughout, kicked clear, the held in the mud on debut, and while facing winners is never easy, and he comes in off a November layoff too, he does look like the controlling speed; come and catch the pick.
#3 Eurobadguy Rousing MSW winner two-back didn't fore against open foes on the turf when last seen in November, but he's back with friends here, and if the pick gets hooked, then his late run will be that much more dangerous in the lane; very playable.
#1 Caney's Ghost Dicey ML favorite actually still hasn't won a race, as he got put up via DQ last time, and note he got the dreaded hung label that day too, so sure, he fits, but this is a tough ask, especially from a potentially tricky rail draw; trying to beat on top.
Race Summary Pace makes the race, and on paper there is no one who can run early with the 7, so play aggressively him to win and place, while getting some added value by singling him in the late Pk4 as well, since he tipped his hand in that debut win, and this seems like an onward and upward type of spot, yet he might not even be favored either.
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