Go Back   Sports Handicapping at cappersmall > >

Handicapping Stats Weekly stats, betting trends, formulas (mostly football season)

Likes Likes:  0
Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 11-14-2019, 10:08 AM
sailfish sailfish is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Northern California
Posts: 212,665
Rewards: 113,560
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1524
Likes (Received): 17521
foot Friday 11/15/ 2019 NCAAF Betting Info

Good Luck and Have A Great Day
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 11-14-2019, 10:17 AM
sailfish sailfish is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Northern California
Posts: 212,665
Rewards: 113,560
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1524
Likes (Received): 17521
Friday, 15 November 2019 • 06:30 PM
317 FRESNO ST @ 318 SAN DIEGO ST
Play under FRESNO ST on the total in All games as a road favorite
The record is 0 Overs and 9 for the last three seasons (+9 units)
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 11-14-2019, 10:18 AM
sailfish sailfish is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Northern California
Posts: 212,665
Rewards: 113,560
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1524
Likes (Received): 17521
Friday, 15 November 2019 • 04:00 PM
315 LOUISIANA TECH @ 316 MARSHALL
Play on LOUISIANA TECH against the spread in All games when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 10 Wins and 1 for the last three seasons (+8.9 units)
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 11-15-2019, 09:29 AM
sailfish sailfish is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Northern California
Posts: 212,665
Rewards: 113,560
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1524
Likes (Received): 17521
315LOUISIANA TECH -316 MARSHALL
MARSHALL is 19-5 ATS (13.5 Units) in home games after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games since 1992.
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 11-15-2019, 09:29 AM
sailfish sailfish is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Northern California
Posts: 212,665
Rewards: 113,560
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1524
Likes (Received): 17521
317FRESNO ST -318 SAN DIEGO ST
FRESNO ST is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) against teams who commit 1 or less turnovers/game on the season in the last 3 seasons.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 11-15-2019, 09:29 AM
sailfish sailfish is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Northern California
Posts: 212,665
Rewards: 113,560
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1524
Likes (Received): 17521
NCAAF
Long Sheet


Friday, November 15

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LOUISIANA TECH (8 - 1) at MARSHALL (6 - 3) - 11/15/2019, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LOUISIANA TECH is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
MARSHALL is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
MARSHALL is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MARSHALL is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FRESNO ST (4 - 5) at SAN DIEGO ST (7 - 2) - 11/15/2019, 9:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FRESNO ST is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO ST is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO ST is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO ST is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO ST is 1-1 against the spread versus FRESNO ST over the last 3 seasons
FRESNO ST is 2-0 straight up against SAN DIEGO ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 11-15-2019, 09:30 AM
sailfish sailfish is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Northern California
Posts: 212,665
Rewards: 113,560
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1524
Likes (Received): 17521
NCAAF

Week 12

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report


Friday, November 15

Louisiana Tech @ Marshall
Louisiana Tech
Louisiana Tech is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Louisiana Tech is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Marshall
Marshall is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Marshall's last 12 games

Fresno State @ San Diego State
Fresno State
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Fresno State's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Fresno State's last 5 games when playing San Diego State
San Diego State
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego State's last 5 games when playing Fresno State
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of San Diego State's last 10 games
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 11-15-2019, 09:31 AM
sailfish sailfish is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Northern California
Posts: 212,665
Rewards: 113,560
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1524
Likes (Received): 17521
Louisiana Tech won its last eight games after an opening loss at Texas; Bulldogs scored 42+ points in last four games- they won last three road games, by 28-3-21 points- three of their last four games went over total. Tech is 14-5-1 ATS in its last 20 games as a road underdog; they lost 26-23 to Marshall in 2014, teams’ only meeting in last 20 years. Thundering Herd won its last four games after a 2-3 start; Marshall is 4-12 ATS in last 16 games as a home favorite, 0-3 TY- five of their last seven games went over.
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 11-15-2019, 09:31 AM
sailfish sailfish is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Northern California
Posts: 212,665
Rewards: 113,560
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1524
Likes (Received): 17521
Fresno State lost three of last five games; they allowed 38.7 ppg in last three, giving up 500+ TY in all three. Bulldogs split their four road games TY- under Tedford, they’re 5-2-2 ATS as a road favorite, 0-1 TY. Bulldogs’ last five games went over the total. San Diego State was ranked #24 in country LW, then lost at home to Nevada, snapping the Aztecs’ 4-game win streak. San Diego St is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games as a home favorite, 1-1 TY; seven of their eight games went under the total. Mountain West road favorites are 7-2 ATS this year.
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 11-15-2019, 09:32 AM
sailfish sailfish is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Northern California
Posts: 212,665
Rewards: 113,560
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1524
Likes (Received): 17521
NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 12

Friday, November 15

Louisiana Tech @ Marshall

Game 315-316
November 15, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Louisiana Tech
78.586
Marshall
86.608
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Marshall
by 8
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Marshall
by 5 1/2
55
Dunkel Pick:
Marshall
(-5 1/2); Under

Fresno State @ San Diego St

Game 317-318
November 15, 2019 @ 9:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Fresno State
80.611
San Diego St
77.619
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Fresno State
by 3
36
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Fresno State
Pick
42 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Fresno State
Under


Long Island @ Villanova

Game 1281-1282
November 15, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Long Island
32.424
Villanova
69.542
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Villanova
by 37
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Villanova
by 33 1/2
51
Dunkel Pick:
Villanova
(-33 1/2); Under
Reply With Quote
  #11  
Old 11-15-2019, 09:33 AM
sailfish sailfish is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Northern California
Posts: 212,665
Rewards: 113,560
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1524
Likes (Received): 17521
Tech Trends - Week 12
Bruce Marshall

Friday, Nov. 15

Matchup Skinny
Edge

LA TECH at MARSHALL...La Tech has won last 8 SU TY, 6-1 vs. spread last 7 in 2019. Skip 17-6-1 as dog since 2014 (1-1 TY). Herd 0-5 vs. spread at home TY, no covers last six as host.
La Tech, based on team trends.


FRESNO STATE at SAN DIEGO STATE...Tedford 23-11-3 vs. line with Fresno since 2017 (though 3-5-1 TY). Bulldogs 2-1 as road dog TY, 8-1 as dog away from home since 2017. Aztecs just 2-9 vs. line at home since LY. Dog team has covered last three in series.
Fresno State, based on team and series trends.
Reply With Quote
  #12  
Old 11-15-2019, 09:37 AM
sailfish sailfish is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Northern California
Posts: 212,665
Rewards: 113,560
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1524
Likes (Received): 17521
Fresno State at San Diego State
Matt Blunt

Venue/Location: SDCCU Stadium, San Diego, California
Time/TV: Friday, Nov. 15 (ESPN2, 9:30 p.m. ET)
Line: Pick 'em, Total 43.5

There is a big time Mountain West showdown this Friday, as the defending conference champions (Fresno State) hope that the can go out on the road and play spoiler to a San Diego State team that hopes it's there name beside the conference champion moniker by this year's end.

A win by the Aztecs would put them in the driver's seat in the West division before their big trip to Hawaii next week, while a loss would only add more tension and pressure. Feeling tension and pressure are two things not commonly associated with touching down on the islands of Hawaii, but should San Diego State fall this week to Fresno, it might be the beginning of the end for San Diego State's conference title dreams in 2019.

And after last week's play on the 'under' in the Washington/Oregon State game brought a no-sweat winner, hopefully the move over to the Mountain West conference this week can bring the same results.

Betting Odds: Fresno State vs San Diego State (pick'em); Total set at 43

This line has already seen significant movement on the side and total, as the total's come down from it's opener of 44.5, while it appears that there aren't many in the market looking to back the Aztecs, as their opener of -2.5 has only gone against them. And given that San Diego State struggled to get by UNLV as a -10 favorite two weeks ago, and then lost outright to Nevada (17-13) as -17 home chalk, it's not hard to see the reasoning behind wanting to go against San Diego State. After all, this is a team that averages just 20.8 points per game on offense this year, and winning consistently in college is rather hard with that type of point production.

For Fresno State, this was always going to be a type of “reloading” year for the program after they had so many valuable and talented upperclassmen lead them to a conference championship a year ago. The Bulldogs came into 2019 as a very young team, and having alternated wins with losses the past six games, the inconsistency in putting together a strong 60 minutes on a weekly basis is a sign of a young team. Following that patter would suggest a win for Fresno State this week, but at 3-5-1 ATS this year, it's not like they've been world beaters against the number either.

In terms of the total, the move downwards is always going to be expected for San Diego State games given how low scoring they tend to be. The Aztecs have only cashed one 'over' ticket in eight tries this year, and that game finished with just 48 total points. Yet, given the Fresno State love, this total going low isn't exactly correlated with that side, as Fresno's 7-2 O/U on the season and has only had one total close lower then 50 on the year. With all the Fresno State love that's already come in, you'd expect to see more support for the 'over', and that's just not the case. Therefore, from a side perspective, can San Diego be trusted to get the job done given that oddsmakers do expect their style of play to be the main form of action given the lower total?

If you are going to do one thing in college football, you'd better be able to do it good, and San Diego State's defense is THAT good. Yes, the results have looked rather ugly the past two weeks, but it's three straight weeks of holding foes to just 17 points, and they've held opponents at/below that threshold in seven of their nine games this year. The Aztecs are 6-1 SU in those seven games, so clearly they are doing something right, even with an offensive unit that's hard to watch at times. 20 points per game on offense has been good enough to go 7-2 SU overall so far, and with where the line is now, you've just got to worry about picking the winner.

One of the toughest situations for young programs like Fresno is always going up against a stout defense. The college game is built on higher scoring, back-and-forth type play because of talent mismatches, coaching mismatches, and/or more schematic breakdowns by younger guys still learning the game. San Diego State's defense just doesn't have those schematic breakdowns that opponents can count on to put up points and keep themselves in the game. That puts Aztecs opponents in a tough spot if San Diego isn't mistake prone themselves on offense, and I'm not sure this 2019 Fresno State team will be able to take advantage of that scenario.

Sure, San Diego State could look awful on offense at times, but if this game does turn out to be a 20-17 or 23-20 type game, who would you rather trust in that situation: Fresno State or San Diego State?

I believe you've got to back the Aztecs defense in that scenario every time out, and coming off an embarrassing loss as three-score home favorites, I do like the Aztecs chances to bounce back offensively as well. This Fresno State team is used to playing games where the first to 35 points win, and that's quite far from the realm of how this game plays out that the lack of comfort Fresno State will have because of it will start to show up early on.

San Diego State is already 1-0 SU and ATS after their other outright loss this year, and that 24-10 win over Colorado State was arguably their most complete win of the season. The Aztecs scored points in every quarter that day, and let the defense do what they do in quarters 2, 3, and 4 while San Diego State's offense put up majors in each frame to build a 24-3 lead. A garbage time score was conceded after that, and this week's home game vs Fresno should have a very similar script when it's all said and done.
Reply With Quote
  #13  
Old 11-15-2019, 09:38 AM
sailfish sailfish is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Northern California
Posts: 212,665
Rewards: 113,560
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1524
Likes (Received): 17521
Betting Recap - Week 11
Joe Williams

College Football Week 11 Results

WAGER Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 31-18
Against the Spread 17-32

WAGER Home-Away
Straight Up 31-18
Against the Spread 20-29

WAGER Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 25-23-1

YEAR TO DATE Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 521-142
Against the Spread 332-320-11

YEAR TO DATE Home-Away
Straight Up 429-230
Against the Spread 318-330-11

YEAR TO DATE Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 317-340-12

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Nevada (+17, ML +700) at San Diego State, 17-13
Tulsa (+16, ML +575) vs. UCF, 34-31
Illinois (+15.5, ML +550) at Michigan State, 37-34
California (+9, ML +275) vs. Washington State, 23-20
Miami-Ohio (+7, ML +230) at Ohio, 24-21
Minnesota (+6.5, ML +210) vs. Penn State, 31-26
Appalachian State (+6, ML +200) at South Carolina, 20-15

The largest favorites to cover
Ohio State (-42.5) vs. Maryland, 73-14
Clemson (-35) at N.C. State, 55-10
Army (-34.5) vs. Massachusetts, 63-7
Cincinnati (-34) vs. Connecticut, 48-3
Mississippi (-28) vs. New Mexico State, 41-3
Florida (-27) vs. Vanderbilt, 56-0

AMERICAN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE (AAC)
-- Cincinnati entered the weekend as the highest ranked team among the Group of Five candidates, and they did nothing to hurt their chances with a 48-3 whitewashing of Connecticut. The Bearcats covered the 34-point number, their first cover outings after opening the season 5-1 ATS. ... SMU was involved in another shootout, as they held off East Carolina by a 59-51 count in Dallas. The 'over' is now 9-0-1 in 10 games for the Mustangs this season. After opening the season 5-0 ATS, they're just 1-4 ATS across the past five, including non-covers in the past three. ... Tulsa entered Friday's game against UCF with nothing to play for but pride, as they have been eliminated from bowl contention. They showed tremendous pride in dealing the Golden Knights a 34-31 loss. While the Golden Hurricane entered on a five-game losing streak, they're now 3-1 ATS across the four outings. Looks like there will be no national championship claims this season in Orlando.

ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE (ACC)
-- Miami dumped Louisville by a 52-27 score, perhaps their most impressive showing of the season. The Hurricanes have won and covered a season-best three in a row after opening 3-4 SU/ATS, and they're now bowl eligible. ... Duke opened the season with a 4-2 SU/ATS mark, but they're on a three-game skid after falling at home to Notre Dame by a 38-7 count. They're also 0-3 ATS during the slid, and their offense has dried up. They're averaging just 12.7 PPG across the past three after opening with 40.4 PPG in a five-game span from Sept. 7-Oct. 12. ... Virginia held off Georgia Tech by a 33-28 score, as the Cavaliers moved to 7-3 SU. However, after opening 2-0 ATS, they're just 2-5-1 ATS across the past eight. The Yellow Jackets opened 0-6 ATS, but they're not quitting down the stretch, going 2-1 ATS across the past three. They're a friend to total bettors, too, as the 'over' is 4-1 in the past five contests. ... N.C. State has given Clemson some trouble in the past, including a straight-up victory at Carter-Finley Stadium back on Nov. 19, 2011, a game which I attended. The Pack won 37-13 that night as 7 1/2-point underdogs. There was no such trouble on Saturday. The Tigers mowed down the Pack 55-10 in chilly Raleigh. Remember when everyone was writing off the Tigers after their near-miss at UNC? Yeah, they're not going anywhere anytime soon.

BIG TEN
-- Illinois looked like the same old Illini on Saturday - for three quarters. They entered the fourth quarter down 31-10 at Michigan State, but this installment of the Illini is different. They really do fight. They outscored Sparty 27-3 in the final quarter, earning bowl eligibility in style with a 37-34 win. Remember all of those calls for Lovie Smith's job the past couple of seasons. He is safe now, and the calls are for Mark Dantonio's job in East Lansing these days. ... The big news in the Big Ten was the eligibility issue and suspension of DE Chase Young, the Heisman Trophy candidate. He reportedly took a small loan from a close family friend to fly his girlfriend out to the Rose Bowl to see him play. He paid the load back in the spring. Sounds harmless enough, but this is the archaic and selective punishing NCAA we're talking about here. Was Ohio State distracted? Nah. They embarrassed Maryland by a 73-14 score, their second time hitting the 70-point plateau this season. They were ranked No. 1 in the first official College Football Playoff rankings released this past Tuesday, but likely will slip due to LSU's win over Alabama in the SEC. ... Another playoff hopeful likely to tumble is Penn State, as they were ranked No. 4. They went to Minnesota, a team which received knocks because they "haven't played anybody", and lost to the Golden Gophers by a 31-26 score in an entertaining game. P.J. Fleck's rowed the boat at Western Michigan, and now he's rowing it in the Twin Cities. The Gophers are 6-0 ATS across the past six.

BIG 12
-- Iowa State gave Oklahoma all they could handle in a 42-41 loss in Norman. Inside the final minute HC Matt Campbell elected to go for two and the win after a late touchdown, but the attempt was picked off to avert disaster for the Sooners. The Cyclones have lost to both Oklahoma schools in the past two games, and they're still not yet eligible for a bowl at 5-4 SU with three to play. ... Texas held off Kansas State by a 27-24 score, although the Wildcats grabbed the cover. It was a rather curious line with K-State catching more than a touchdown against the skidding Longhorns. The Wildcats have covered four in a row, and the 'under' is 5-1 across their past six, as they have been a friend to bettors. Overall they're 7-2 ATS in nine outings. ... Baylor won a crazy game in TCU, 29-23 in overtime. This was not just a bad beat, but perhaps the worst one of the 2019 season (see below). The Bears improved to 9-0 SU, but they're just 5-4 ATS, while the 'over' is 3-1 across the past four. The over is 6-1 in TCU's past seven, too, although it probably shouldn't have hit. Again, see below.

CONFERENCE USA
-- Florida Atlantic won the Shula Bowl, which is the annual meeting with South Florida rival Florida International. The Owls won 37-7, topping FIU for the 13th time in 17 meetings. More importantly to bettors, Lane Kiffin's Owls are 7-3 SU heading into a bye, temporarily in sole possession of first place in the East Division of C-USA. They're 7-1 SU across the past eight, and 5-1 ATS over the past six. They're still the only team to cover the spread against No. 1 Ohio State, too, and only team to score more than twice against the Buckeyes in a game this season. ... UAB is suddenly in freefall, as they were blasted 37-2 by Southern Miss. The Blazers opened 6-1 SU/5-2 ATS, but they're 0-2 SU/ATS over the past two with the 'under' hitting in both since they're averaging 4.5 PPG during the skid. ... Texas-San Antonio stole one at Old Dominion, winning 24-23. The Roadrunners are now 3-0 ATS and they have hit the 'over' in three straight, too. ... Louisiana Tech spanked North Texas, 52-17, as the Mean Green slipped to 4-6 SU, needing to win both of their final games to become bowl eligible. They're just 1-5 ATS in the past six, too.

MID-AMERICAN (MAC)
-- All three mid-week MAC games saw the underdog go 3-0 ATS, with Miami-Ohio winning outright at Ohio, 24-21. The 'over' covered in the pair of Tuesday battles, too, while Wednesday's Miami-Ohio contest hit the under thanks to a scoreless first quarter. ... If you had an 'under' ticket in the Ball State-Western Michigan game (myself included), you elected to receive your bad beat a few days early. See below.

MOUNTAIN WEST
-- There were four games in the Mountain West, and all four were decided by four or fewer points, with the Wyoming-Boise State game going to overtime. The Cowboys were using a backup quarterback, as were the Broncos, so that explained the low-scoring affair. Even overtime wasn't enough to bail out 'over' bettors in this one. ... Nevada pulled off a surprising 17-13 road win against San Diego State, who, honestly, have been living rather dangerously. The Aztecs slipped to 1-3 ATS as a double-digit favorite, and perhaps a 17-point spread was a gift to bettors since the Aztecs have failed to scored more than 27 points in every game except at New Mexico State back on Sept. 14. The 'under' is 3-0 in the past three, and 8-1 in their nine games overall. For the Wolf Pack, they attained bowl eligibility with the win, and they're now 6-4 SU while winning outright twice as double-digit 'dogs this season. ... San Jose State headed to the islands and lost an entertaining 42-40 game at Hawaii. The Spartans have dropped two in a row despite averaging 41.0 PPG, and they're 3-0 ATS in the past three, while going 6-1-1 ATS in the past eight overall.

PAC-12
-- There were just four total games in the Pac-12, with three games on Saturday. USC-Arizona State was an entertaining battle, as the Trojans won 31-26 in Tempe, just narrowly missing a 5.5-point cover. After opening 0-3 SU/1-2 ATS on the road, the Trojans are 2-0 SU/0-1-1 ATS in the past two away from home. The 'over' is also 3-0 in the past three games following a 5-0 'under' run for the Men of Troy. ... Colorado snapped a five-game losing skid, rallying for a gutsy 17-13 win over Stanford. The Buffaloes still need to win their final two for bowl eligibility, and they have Washington and Utah remaining. Good luck with that! Speaking of Washington, they won 19-7 on Friday night against Oregon State, nearly shutting them out. In fact, the defense did not allow any points, as the Beavers scored their only TD on a pick-six.

SOUTHEASTERN (SEC)
-- Arkansas ended up closely as short 'dogs at home against a Conference USA team, Western Kentucky. It gets worse. The Hogs were thrashed by the Hilltoppers by a 45-19 score, and the QB for WKU was a former Arkansas signal caller. It doesn't appear head coach Chad Morris is going to be employed much longer in Fayetteville, if he even lasts the week. ... Of course, the most highly-anticipated game of the season was LSU-Alabama. A lot of talk about Minnesota was "they haven't played anybody", but really, who has 'Bama played? Duke? New Mexico State? Ole Miss? A&M? None of the teams they played previously were in the rankings this week. LSU was ranked No. 2 in the College Playoff rankings, and they opened a 33-13 lead at halftime before hanging on for the 46-41 victory in Tuscaloosa. Alabama is 4-5 ATS this season, and they have yet to cover in consecutive games this season. ... Tennessee went up to Kentucky and it seemed like old times. They rallied for a 17-13 win after falling behind 13-0 after one quarter, and the Vols have now won three in a row and moved within one game of bowl eligibility. More importantly they're 5-0 ATS across the past five after going 1-4 ATS to start.

SUN BELT
-- South Carolina paid Appalachian State to come to Columbia to play. They didn't know they'd be getting an angry Mountaineers side after losing at home to Georgia Southern last week. App State pulled off a road win for the second time against a Power 5 team, just the seventh team to do that since 2001. ... Spreaking of Southern, they failed to cover over the momentum from their big win. They went to Troy and were handled, 49-28 as field-goal favorites. The Eagles slipped to 5-4 SU, and still need a win to attain bowl eligibility. The 'over' is 5-2 across the past seven outings. ... Georgia State was another field-goal favorite on the road to struggle, falling at Louisiana-Monroe by a 45-31 count, snapping a four-game winning streak. It was a rare non-cover for the Panthers, too, as they entered 5-1-2 ATS in the first eight outings.

Bad Beats

-- Perhaps the most raw beat of the season happened on the Baylor-TCU total. If you had an 'under' (48) ticket, you were on the right side. In fact, there were no touchdowns at all in regulation. The game went to overtime, and should have still cashed the under with just 18 total points on the board. However, the teams exchanged touchdowns in the first overtime, they extended touchdowns in the second OT, too, and you were already done with 46 on the board, regardless of what happened in triple. Baylor ended up winning 29-23, adding salt to the wound of anyone hold a TCU side ticket. The Horned Frogs probably should have covered in regulation, 9-6, but the Bears hit a clutch 51-yard field goal with :36 left to force OT.

-- As mentioned, the mid-week MAC game between Ball State and Western Michigan was a tough pill to swallow for 'under' bettors. The total was 64.5, and entering the fourth there were just 38 points on the board. Western Michigan took a 28-24 lead with 5:21 to go, and you were still in good shape. Ball State replied quickly re-taking a 31-28 lead with 3:24 to go. With just 1:05 remaining in regulation, the Broncos struck for a touchdown to win 35-31, flipping the total to 'over'.

-- The Florida State-Boston College (64.5) game was a rough one for 'under' bettors, too. Aren't they all? BC tied it up 24-24 with 2:33 to go. FSU answered with a 60-yard touchdown to re-take the lead, 31-24. This game did NOT go to overtime, yet under bettors still lost. Yes, a touchdown was scored by FSU with 1:03 to go, and then BC had a touchdown with just 14 seconds left to flip the total over. There were 41 points on the board with 2:34 to play. There were 28 points scored in the final 2:33. Ouch.
Reply With Quote
  #14  
Old 11-15-2019, 09:38 AM
sailfish sailfish is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Northern California
Posts: 212,665
Rewards: 113,560
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1524
Likes (Received): 17521
4th Quarter Covers - Week 11
Joe Nelson

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in the 11th weekend of the college football.

Each week there are several teams that cover despite not necessarily deserving it, as well as other teams that played much better than the final score shows.

Toledo (-3) 35, Kent State 33: The line on this game crashed from -7 to just -3 but Toledo led 14-0 nine minutes into the game and maintained a 28-17 edge at halftime. Kent State climbed back in the game and after a late third quarter touchdown the Flashes kicked the PAT to trail by just one. Toledo would answer less than five minutes later to go up by eight but Kent State completed a 15-play drive to find the end zone with just over five minutes remaining. That score put the Flashes in position to cover but the two-point conversion attempt to make things even more interesting came up short.

Miami, OH (+7) 24, Ohio 21: The Bobcats never led in this game but the scoring traded off throughout the game and was tied twice in the fourth quarter as overtime was realistic to keep all spread outcomes in play. With about four minutes remaining Miami connected on Sam Sloman’s 53-yard field goal to take a 3-point lead and Ohio mangled its possession, winding up needing to go for it on 4th-and-23 while having a costly penalty and burning two timeouts.

Illinois (+16) 37, Michigan State 34: The Spartans seemed to be in complete control leading 28-3 early and still 31-10 through three quarters. Illinois would score a pair of touchdowns early in the fourth quarter to get back in the game and then got a 76-yard interception return touchdown. The PAT was missed as the Illini weren’t able to tie the game. Michigan State had to settle for a field goal however and the Illini put together a 13-play drive to go 75 yards in the final three minutes for the upset.

Purdue (-1) 24, Northwestern 22: The dormant Northwestern offense exploded for two first quarter touchdowns but Purdue would take a 21-16 lead by the end of the third quarter. Northwestern went back in front in the fourth but up by one, failed on the two-point try in what lurked as potentially big play relative to the spread with the Wildcats a slight favorite much of the week. Northwestern missed a field goal with 2:30 remaining in the game to leave the door open for Purdue to steal the win late. With about a minute remaining Aidan O’Connell was intercepted in Northwestern territory on 4th down but the play was wiped out with a pass interference call, handing Purdue a new set of downs 15 yards closer. The Boilermakers only gained two more yards and J.D. Dellinger connected from 39 yards for the Purdue win.

Texas San Antonio (+3) 24, Old Dominion 23: The Monarchs had a 23-10 lead through three quarters at home but allowed an 85-yard touchdown drive early in the fourth quarter to wind up in a one-score game. The Roadrunners forced a punt and then put together perhaps their best drive of the season with a 14-play drive that included three 3rd down conversions. The touchdown with fewer than three minutes remaining tied the game and the PAT was good for the lead. Old Dominion approached midfield on its final drive but wound up fumbling on a sack as UTSA got the win.

USC (-5) 31, Arizona State 26: This line climbed as it became clear that Arizona State quarterback Jayden Daniels wouldn’t play. USC scored four touchdowns in the first quarter but Arizona State would battle back, climbing within eight in the third quarter before a USC field goal made it an 11-point margin heading into the fourth quarter. The Sun Devils struck early in the fourth to trail by five with a two-point conversion try coming up short in a key play relative to the number. USC continued to fail to pick up first downs managing only three points in the final three quarters but the defense got an interception in the final minute to thwart a promising late drive from the Sun Devils. The fourth quarter touchdown from Arizona State put the scoring at 57, even with a common number during the week but past the late week total that fell to as low as 54 with the quarterback change.

Mississippi (-28) 41, New Mexico State 3: The Rebels led just 17-3 before getting a touchdown in the final minute before halftime. Adding just seven in the third quarter the margin was right near the spread with a 31-3 edge into the fourth quarter. Mississippi completed a 98-yard drive to slip past the number early in the fourth and then added a late field goal for good measure.

Texas (-7) 27, Kansas State 24: A 14-0 Wildcats lead made the favorite cover for the Longhorns unlikely but Texas scored the next 24 points to lead by 10 early in the fourth quarter. After that short field touchdown drive Kansas State returned the kickoff 98 yards for a touchdown to get back within three however. Texas was held to a 3-and-out and Kansas State got a huge 3rd-and-long unsportsmanlike conduct penalty on its drive. That gain put Kansas State in field goal range and the game was tied at the 6:45 mark. Texas quickly approached the edge of field goal range and then found itself with 1st-and-goal from the Kansas State 2-yard line with a minute and a half to go. Texas did its best to burn the entire remaining clock instead of trying to score a touchdown but on 3rd and goal Sam Ehlinger had enough space to scamper into the end zone but an illegal formation play erased it. Texas eventually kicked a 26-yard field goal that was good and Kansas State didn’t get the ball again. Those laying points on the Longhorns with a spread that jumped from -5 to -7 didn’t see Tom Herman’s late-game logic quite the same way.

UL-Monroe (+2) 45, Georgia State 31: This game was tied 24-24 at halftime without consecutive scores for either team. UL-Monroe would take over with a 3-play 82-yard drive to lead by seven but Georgia State answered to leave the game knotted 31-31 through three quarters. A fumble, and two fourth down failures filled the next three Panthers possessions as the Warhawaks would add two touchdowns to pull away.

Wisconsin (-7) 24, Iowa 22: The Badgers scored a touchdown just before halftime and then again late in the third quarter to emerge with a 21-6 edge. Iowa would put up a great late fight however with 10 points in the first six minutes of the fourth quarter around a Jack Coan interception as some familiarities to the Illinois collapse for Wisconsin emerged. On its field goal Iowa’s kicker was run into but the Hawkeyes opted to keep the points and stay down five rather than going for it on 4th-and-short down eight. The Badgers would burn a big chunk of clock but ultimately couldn’t put the game away, settling for a 29-yard field goal that was barely good. Iowa connected for a 75-yard touchdown pass on its first play and lined up for the tying two-point conversion. Quarterback Nate Stanley ran up the middle and was stopped just short. Wisconsin would reach the Iowa 11-yard-line before ultimately taking a knee in the final minute without adding points.

Baylor (-1) 29, TCU 23: TCU led 9-0 at halftime looking to end Baylor’s undefeated run but the Bears would hit two field goals to trail 9-6 early in the fourth quarter, the second of which came on a 1-yard drive after inheriting great field position with an interception. Five straight punts followed before Baylor put together a late drive aided by a pass interference call, while also having an interception called off with a false start. The Bears went backwards from the TCU 22 and had to make a 51-yard field goal to force overtime as regulation didn’t feature a touchdown. Overtime would feature five straight touchdowns with Baylor going up by six leading the third session but unable to get the required two-point conversion. That score sealed an unfortunate ‘over’ despite 18 points in regulation. Max Duggan seemed to rush into the end zone to tie the game but on review he was ruled out at the 3-yard-line. TCU went backwards from there and eventually on 4th-and-goal the Baylor defense secured the win with an interception, getting the favorite cover as well while remaining at the front of the Big XII race.

Oklahoma (-14) 42, Iowa State 41: Oklahoma led 35-14 at halftime and still led by 21 through three quarters. Iowa State got back within the number with a touchdown on the first play of the fourth quarter. Oklahoma fumbled to give the ball right back but Iowa State was unable to score from 1st-and-goal. The defense forced a quick punt and went 80 yards in four plays to suddenly put the game back in play. Facing 3rd-and-7 Oklahoma quarterback Jalen Hurts seemed to be trying to throw the ball away but wound up intercepted in bounds to give the Cyclones great field position. Brock Purdy led a touchdown drive and Matt Campbell made the call to go for the win with 24 seconds to go. Pressure came and Purdy made a throw on the money but egregious pass interference was ignored by the officials as the Sooners escaped.

Hawai’i (-9) 42, San Jose State 40: The line on the late night game had a late jump to as high as -9 from -7 to -8 most of the week. That appeared to matter with Hawai’i up nine early in the fourth quarter. San Jose State connected for a 40-yard touchdown pass to get within two but the Warriors burned more than five minutes for a 12-play touchdown drive to go back up by nine. The Warriors had a chance to hold that margin but on 4th-and-7 San Jose State converted in its own territory and a few plays later struck the end zone again with fewer than two minutes on the clock to confirm the underdog cover.
Reply With Quote
  #15  
Old 11-15-2019, 04:08 PM
sailfish sailfish is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Northern California
Posts: 212,665
Rewards: 113,560
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1524
Likes (Received): 17521
Louisiana Tech - QB J'Mar Smith, WR Adrian Hardy & S James Jackson (suspension) are out tonight versus Marshall
Reply With Quote
Reply

Tags
11/15, day, good, great, luck

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are Off
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 11:57 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, vBulletin Solutions Inc.
Resources saved on this page: MySQL 14.29% Host: cappersmallweb6