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Old 10-26-2020, 09:53 AM
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foot Monday 10/26/2020 NFL Betting Info

Good Luck and Have A Great Day
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Old 10-26-2020, 09:53 AM
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Bears at Rams odds

Opening line
Rams -6.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
There was no early movement at The SuperBook off the opener of Los Angeles -6.5, and this game came off the board when the Rams-49ers game kicked off Sunday night. Bears-Rams will go back up Monday morning.

"The Bears don’t get any respect, but they just keep winning," Murray said of the NFC North leaders, who are 5-1 SU (4-2 ATS) heading into the Week 7 Monday nighter. "There will be moneyline bets on the Bears. It’s a long way off, but I’m guessing we will want the Rams to win but not cover at kickoff."
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Old 10-26-2020, 09:54 AM
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Monday, Oct. 26

CHICAGO at L.A. RAMS

Matchups between these two have been way “under” each of past two seasons.
Bears 3-0 vs. line away, 4-1 as dog in 2020.
Bears “under” 21-8 since late 2018.

Tech Edge: “Under” and slight to Bears, based on “totals” and team trends.
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Old 10-26-2020, 09:54 AM
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475CHICAGO -476 LA RAMS
CHICAGO is 13-34 ATS (-24.4 Units) in road games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better since 1992.
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Old 10-26-2020, 09:55 AM
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NFL
Dunkel

Week 7

Monday, October 26

Chicago @ LA Rams

Game 475-476
October 26, 2020 @ 8:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
127.587
LA Rams
137.235
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Rams
by 9 1/2
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Rams
by 5 1/2
46
Dunkel Pick:
LA Rams
(-5 1/2); Under
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Old 10-26-2020, 09:55 AM
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CHICAGO (5 - 1) at LA RAMS (4 - 2) - 10/26/2020, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 9-23 ATS (-16.3 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 57-83 ATS (-34.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
LA RAMS are 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
LA RAMS are 151-194 ATS (-62.4 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS are 73-105 ATS (-42.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA RAMS is 1-1 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
LA RAMS is 1-1 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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Old 10-26-2020, 09:55 AM
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Chicago @ LA Rams
Chicago
Chicago is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Chicago is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
LA Rams
LA Rams is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Rams's last 8 games at home
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Old 10-26-2020, 09:56 AM
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NFL divisional road favorites are 0-5 ATS and 2-3 SU this year

The Los Angeles Rams were the latest victim of this trend last week on Sunday Night Football when they lost to the 49ers, as they joined Kansas City not covering (Week 2 vs LAC), Buffalo not covering (Week 2 vs Miami), Philadelphia not covering (Week 1 vs Washington), and Indianapolis not covering (Week 1 vs Jacksonville) in their opportunities as divisional road favorites.

Only the Chiefs and Bills were able to escape with a "W" in the win column for those games, and we've got five games that fit this scenario in Week 7 to potentially fire on?
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Old 10-26-2020, 09:57 AM
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Bears (5-1) @ Rams (4-2)
— Chicago has three wins by 4 points each, another win by one point.
— Bears won all three of their road games SU, and were underdog in all three.
— Chicago is 5-3 ATS in last eight games as a road underdog.
— Four of their last five games stayed under.
— NFC North teams are 11-5 ATS outside the division.

— Rams won both their home games, 20-17/17-9.
— LA has outscored opponents 79-25 in second half of games.
— Under McVay, Rams are 11-10-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— LA’s last three games stayed under the total.
— NFC West teams are 12-7 ATS outside the division.

— Home side won five of last six series games.
— Teams split last four series games.
— Bears split their last eight visits to StL/LA.
— Last two years: Bears 15-6 (icy weather), Rams 17-7
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Old 10-26-2020, 09:58 AM
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L.A. to face defensive test in Chicago

Lastly, a fun fact for Monday Night Football where the Rams are six-point home favorites over the 5-1 Bears is that all four of the Rams wins have come against the NFC East.

That group of the Eagels, Cowboys, Football Team and Giants are a combined 6-19 this season.

With that being stated, are the Rams really six-points better than the Bears?

No fans in the stands at SoFi in Inglewood and a small rating edge for the Rams make the spread look too high. If you like the Bears, I would wait until Monday when the public bets the favorite up higher.
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Old 10-26-2020, 09:59 AM
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Chicago

Overall: 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS, 2-4 O/U
Road: 3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS, 2-1 O/U
Offense PPG: 21.3 (Rank 27)
Defense PPG: 19.3 (Rank 7)
Offense YPG: 337.8 (Rank 28)
Defense YPG: 337.2 (Rank 7)
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  #12  
Old 10-26-2020, 09:59 AM
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Los Angeles

Overall: 4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS, 2-4 O/U
Home: 2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS, 0-2 O/U
Offense PPG: 25.3 (Rank 19)
Defense PPG: 19.0 (Rank 5)
Offense YPG: 388.2 (Rank 10)
Defense YPG: 318.5 (Rank 4)
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  #13  
Old 10-26-2020, 09:59 AM
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Handicapping the Total

The Bears come into this game on a 0-3 O/U run as their defense has held three straight opponents to fewer than 20 points in each of those games. Chicago went 2-1 SU in those games despite not scoring more than 23 points themselves, as the move to Foles may generate the headlines at times for Chicago, but this is still a defensive-first team that expects to have their most success in these 23-20 or 24-17 type games.

The Rams are on a 0-3 O/U run as well coming into this game, as their defense has held it's own as well, allowing less than 20 to all four NFC East foes they've beaten and given up 24+ in their two defeats to the rest of the league. The Bears are considered part of the rest of the league in that equation, although they've only scored 21 or more points in just half of their six games in 2020 so far.

That being said, a couple of decent 'under' runs for both sides coming in, and the general profile of at least one team (Chicago) being a defensive-oriented one in the marketplace, has me looking at the contrarian approach for a play on going 'over' this number as the best betting option.

Yes, these two teams have met the past two seasons and played games that finished 15-6 and 17-7, but that and more importantly all the defensive metrics both sides have put up in 2020 are already incorporated into the line.

In an era where we've typically got 6+ games on a NFL Sunday having totals in the 50's, a number as “low” as 45 stands out in such a way that in the bigger picture of league wide trends this year really lends itself to looking at going 'over' this number.

And then when you see it's really been nothing but 'under' money on this game all week with the opener of 47 being steadily bet down to its current status, you realize that the general consensus on this game is related to three things. Those recent 'under' streaks both sides have had, the issues on offense both teams have had scoring points, and the recent head-to-head history between the two where we were lucky to get 20 points between the two of them.

Well, contrarian 'over' plays really don't come up that often, and for someone like myself who loves to be fading public underdogs, fading public 'unders' tend to fall in the same boat.

I get that any positive offensive numbers the Rams have put up still have to come with the qualifier that it came against NFC East teams, but this is still a L.A. squad that enters the week ranked 7th in offensive EPA/play right now, as only offensive “juggernauts” in Tennessee, K.C., Seattle, Green Bay, Vegas, and Buffalo rank ahead of L.A. in that regard.

If the Rams do indeed belong in the same offensive class as some of those teams, they'll prove it against this Bears defense who has their own legitimacy questions about what offenses they've faced, with Tom Brady and a depleted Tampa team on a short week likely being the best of the bunch.

And while the Bears may prefer to play in (and win) 23-20 type games, they know that's not realistic to expect on a weekly basis. If teams can neutralize the Rams pass rush, there are numerous ways to move the ball up and down the field on this team, and you only have to reference the 49ers and Bills games vs L.A. to see that.

Finally, we can't forget that if the Bears mantra is indeed to try and be on the right side of as many 23-20 type games as they can, that total is still just a FG shy of going 'over' this current number.

Doesn't take much in the NFL for a bounce, or penalty, or any number of things to go a certain way to lead to those extra points an 'over' ticket may need late in this game, as today's NFL has shown us that teams can go 'over' a mid-40's total almost by accident.

I believe we may see exactly that happen here.
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Old 10-26-2020, 09:59 AM
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Head-to-Head History

Nov. 17, 2019 - Los Angeles 17 vs. Chicago 7, Rams -5.5, Under 40
Dec. 9, 2018 - Chicago 15 vs. Los Angeles 6, Bears +3, Under 51
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Old 10-26-2020, 10:00 AM
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Handicapping the Side

The side in this game is an easy pass all the way around with the legitimacy question marks attached to both teams. I doubted the Rams were as good as their 4-1 SU record suggested last week, and nothing they did in that San Francisco game changed my view on that. Especially not enough to consider laying six points with them in this game.

And the Bears feel a lot like the Rams did a week ago, with legitimacy questions surrounding their record still largely unanswered at this point in my view.

Taking the points with Chicago could work out with the idea that it is a lot of points to give a 5-1 SU team, but when you question how “real” that 5-1 SU record is, that +6 point spread attached to their name generally looks like it is where it probably should be.

If anything, I do expect the Rams to find a way to win this game, so teasing them down or putting L.A. in a ML parlay or something like that would be the only thing I'd consider here.
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Old 10-26-2020, 10:00 AM
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Line Movements

Spread: Los Angeles -6
Money-Line: Los Angeles -265, Chicago +225
Total: 45
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Old 10-26-2020, 10:00 AM
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After being on the right side of things in the Los Angeles game last week for SNF, it's Round Two for handicapping a prime time Rams game as they welcome the MNF crew into town this week.

Last week I talked about how I wasn't ready to believe in this Rams team despite their 4-1 SU record because all of those wins came against NFC East foes. I see very little value in beating NFC East teams for anyone else outside of that division, and a slow and sloppy start vs the 49ers had L.A. chasing their tails uphill for the good majority of that loss to the 49ers.

But this week the Rams are at home laying chalk, against a Bears team that's got some legitimacy questions of their own about the 5-1 SU record they currently sport.

Two of those five wins were basically handed over to the Bears by the Lions and Falcons in those teams blowing big leads vs Chicago, and even a 17-13 win over the Giants – the one common opponent Chicago and L.A. have - doesn't look all that good considering Chicago was up 17-0 at the break of that game and nearly coughed it up themselves.

Wins against Tampa Bay and Carolina have been better showings for the Bears, as both came as small underdogs and in Nick Foles' second and third start with the team. So there are things pointed in the right direction for Chicago in some regards, but will it be enough to make it three straight ATS wins (and maybe SU wins) against the Rams this week?

Betting Resources

Week 7 Matchup: NFC vs. NFC
Venue: SoFi Stadium
Location: Inglewood, CA
Date: Monday, Oct. 26, 2020
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

The Chicago Bears defense has been very stout this season and the unit has helped the club go 3-0 as visitors. (AP)
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Old 10-26-2020, 10:02 AM
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Betting Recap - Week 7
Joe Williams

Overall Notes



The largest underdogs to win straight up

Cardinals (+3.5, ML +160) vs. Seahawks, 37-34 (OT)
49ers (+3, ML +140) at Patriots, 33-6

The largest favorites to cover

Chargers (-7.5) vs. Jaguars, 39-29
Chiefs (-7) at Broncos, 43-16

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week

The Pittsburgh Steelers-Tennessee Titans battle certainly lived up to the hype. It was an AFC battle of unbeatens, and at first it looked like it was going to be a blowout, Pittsburgh style. The Steelers fired out to a 14-0 lead, and they held a 24-7 advantage at the break. They tacked on a 30-yard Chris Boswell field goal early in the third quarter to make it 27-7, but that's when the Steelers bogged down on offense and were unable to produce anymore offense.

The Titans made a furious comeback. WR A.J. Brown struck 50 seconds after Boswell's field goal for a 73-yard touchdown, cutting the lead to 27-14. A field goal from Stephen Gostkowski with 2:55 left in the third from 51 yards out made it 27-17 after 45 minutes. Over (51) bettors looked to be in good shape heading into the fourth quarter, and Titans (+1, ML +105) side bettors were perking up as well. With 10:13 to go in regulation, Derrick Henry punched one in from 1-yard out to make it 27-24. However, much to the dismay of over bettors, there was no more scoring in the remainder of the game. Gostkowski misfired on a 45-yard field goal attempt with 19 seconds remaining, which would have inched the total over the line. In addition, moneyline bettors and side bettors for the Titans must've felt like they were losing twice. A trip to overtime could have potentially changed the day.

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part II

The Detroit Lions-Atlanta Falcons game was a memorable one, and not many people would've expected that going in. It was 14-13 after three quarters, and while it was close, it wasn't terribly exciting. Then the fourth quarter took place.

If you're a Falcons (-1) side bettor, you're absolutely sick about this result. The Lions ended up winning 23-22 with a touchdown with zeroes on the clock, stunning Atlanta. However, that would be bad enough on a normal day under normal circumstances, but this situation should have never come to be.

With 1:04 remaining in regulation, the Falcons picked up a key first down, positioning themselves for a chip-shot, game-winning field goal, which would have made it 17-16. The Lions were out of timeouts, so they allowed Todd Gurley to score from 10 yards out. He remembered at the last second that he wasn't supposed to score, but couldn't stop his momentum and broke the plane. That made it 20-16, and they tacked on a two-point conversion to go ahead by six. However, if they would have just taken a knee, they could have run the clock down and left no time after the field goal. Matthew Stafford and company took advantage.

The Lions drove the field, tying it with no time left on a strike from Stafford to T.J. Hockenson from 11 yards out. All that was needed was a Matt Prater extra point, and he stuck it, giving Detroit a miraculous 23-22 victory.

Total Recall

The lowest totals on the board on the Sunday slate were the San Francisco 49ers-New England Patriots (44.5) game, followed by the Dallas Cowboys-Washington Football Team (45) contests.

The Patriots were never able to get untracked, as the 49ers fired out to a 23-3 lead at halftime, and they never looked back. Cam Newton was mistake-prone, and the New England offense could only produce two field goals. The 49ers picked up the 33-6 road victory, and 'over' bettors were a little disappointed with just three points in the fourth quarter.

In the Cowboys game, QB Andy Dalton was knocked out of the game due to a head/neck injury, so seventh-round draft pick QB Ben DiNucci was thrust into action. The Cowboys offense was dumbed down even more, and the second half resembled a preseason game for the Cowboys. Sadly, they're still only a half-game back of the first-place Philadelphia Eagles with a trip to Lincoln Financial Field on the slate for Week 8. Anyway, the Cowboys mustered just three points, and the Washington offense posted a total of 22 points, as the 'under' easily cashed.

The highest number on the board was Seattle Seahawks-Arizona Cardinals (56) battle. This NFC West showdown didn't disappoint. The teams combined for 71 points, and only the third quarter saw fewer than 17 points. QBs Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray put on a show for the national audience, and the total was the first over of the season for the Cardinals against five under results. Arizona entered the day as the only NFL team without an over.

In the two primetime games, the over and under split 1-1, with the Monday night game between the Chicago Bears and Los Angeles Rams still pending.

So far this season the under is 13-9 (59.1%) across 22 primetime games. In 2019, the 'under' went 31-17-1 (64.6%) during primetime games.
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Old 10-26-2020, 10:07 AM
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CHICAGO BEARS VS. LOS ANGELES RAMS

The fans at SoFi Stadium will be treated to a game between the Chicago Bears and the Los Angeles Rams when they take their seats on Monday.

Oddsmakers opened the Rams as -7-point favorites versus the Bears, while the game's total opened at 47.

Chicago:
Team record: 5-1 SU,4-2 ATS
Chicago is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Chicago is 6-12 ATS in its last 18 games
Chicago is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

Los Angeles:
Team record: 4-2 SU,3-3 ATS
LA Rams is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Rams's last 8 games at home
LA Rams is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Chicago

Next up:
Chicago home to New Orleans Sunday, November 1
Los Angeles at Miami Sunday, November 1
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Old 10-26-2020, 10:07 AM
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POWER STATS

Yards Per Point
Name Offense Defense Differential
CHI 14.67 17.44 -2.78
LAR 15.32 16.76 -1.44

Yards Per Pass
Name Offense Defense Differential
CHI 9.16 10.76 -1.6
LAR 11.86 9.04 2.82

Yards Per Rush
Name Offense Defense Differential
CHI 3.86 4.26 -0.4
LAR 4.31 4.36 -0.05
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Old 10-26-2020, 10:08 AM
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Two of the most pleasant surprises of the 2020 NFL season battle at SoFi Stadium in the Week 7 Monday nighter as the Chicago Bears visit the Los Angeles Rams.
The Bears (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS) have been the kings of close games, with all five of their wins coming by seven or fewer points.
The Rams (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) will be looking to rebound after falling 24-16 to San Francisco.
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Old 10-26-2020, 10:08 AM
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Opening Odds Analysis
The Rams opened as one-touchdown favorites but the line has since dipped to -5.5 at the majority of sportsbooks.
The opening total of 47 has also moved, dropping by a point in most spots.
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Old 10-26-2020, 10:09 AM
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Chicago News & Notes
The Bears might be the luckiest division leader in football through six weeks, leading the Green Bay Packers by a half-game in the NFC North despite sporting a pedestrian plus-12 point differential over that stretch.
Offensive struggles are at the heart of the Bears’ rest-of-season concerns, especially where the run game is concerned – they rank 28th at 90.0 yards per game).

The passing attack has also stumbled at times but has been buoyed by the consistency of No. 1 wide receiver Allen Robinson.
He enters Week 7 having seen a league-high 66 targets, turning them into 40 catches (fourth in the NFL) for 474 yards (10th) and two touchdowns.
Consider Robinson a strong high-floor cash game play even in a tough matchup against the Rams
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Old 10-26-2020, 10:09 AM
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Los Angeles News & Notes
The Rams took a step back in the competitive NFC West race with last week’s setback to the 49ers, a loss in which Los Angeles finished with fewer than 200 passing yards and went 4-for-12 on third down.
Expect the Rams to bounce back in that regard, as they still rank ninth in the league with a 46.8 percent success rate for the season despite their Week 6 clunker.

As for the first stat, the Rams will need more from quarterback Jared Goff to get back in the win column.
That could prove challenging against a Chicago pass defense that ranks 10th in fewest yards allowed (224.2).
Goff and top wideouts Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods are risky DFS plays this week, though Woods might make for a good contrarian GPP option.
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Old 10-26-2020, 10:09 AM
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Both sides have offensive weaknesses the opposing defense can exploit; even with game scoring at an all-time high in 2020, this game has the makings of a defensive showdown.

Chicago is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games after an ATS win.
LA is 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 games vs the NFC.
The UNDER is 5-2 in Chicago’s last 7 games vs LA.
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