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  #26  
Old 09-13-2019, 12:21 PM
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Arizona State (+5.5) upset Michigan State 16-13 in desert LY, throwing for 380 yards, but ASU has a true freshman QB playing now- first road start for him. Sun Devils struggled to beat a I-AA team 19-7 LW, after beating Kent State 30-7 in their opener. ASU is 5-2-1 in last eight tries as a road dog. Michigan State won its first two games by combined 79-24; they’re 9-14 ATS in last 23 games as a home favorite, 1-1 this year. Last 6+ years, Big 14 teams are 23-14-1 ATS when playing a Pac-12 team, 1-4-1 the last 1+ years.
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Old 09-13-2019, 12:21 PM
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Kentucky QB Wilson is out for season after hurting his left knee last week; Wildcats snapped a 21-game losing skid to Florida LY, upsetting Gators 27-16 (+13.5). Florida won its last 11 visits to Lexington, covering five of last six. Gators beat Miami 24-20 in its opener, then crushed a I-AA team LW; Florida covered seven of its last 10 tries as a road favorite. Kentucky beat couple of MAC teams by 14-21 points to open season; new QB Smith started 7 games at Troy State LY. Wildcats are 4-12-2 ATS in last 18 games as a home underdog.
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Old 09-13-2019, 12:21 PM
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TCU whacked a I-AA team to start the season, using two QB’s; Horned Frogs have all five starters back on OL (75 starts). Since 2011, TCU is 9-16 ATS as a road favorite. Purdue’s leading tackler is out; their QB had a concussion LW, is a ??? here. Boilers lost 34-31 at Nevada, then beat Vandy 42-24 LW. Purdue threw ball for 932 yards in two games, ran it for only 127. Under Brohm, Boilers are 3-1 as a home underdog. Last five years, Big X teams are 9-7-1 ATS when playing a Big 14 opponent.
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Old 09-13-2019, 12:21 PM
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Florida State won 11 of last 13 games vs Virginia, winning five of last six visits here (4-2 ATS); Seminoles were favored in all 13 games. Teams last met in 2014; Cavaliers are 5-3 ATS in last eight meetings. FSU lost 36-31 at home to Boise, then snuck by ULM 45-44, not a great start; Last 2+ years, Seminoles are 3-6 ATS as an underdog. Virginia won its opener 30-14 at Pitt, then whacked a I-AA team LW; under Mendenhall, Cavaliers are 5-5 ATS as home favorites. FSU is 13-14 SU in its last 27 games, after going 49-6 in the four years before that.
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Old 09-13-2019, 12:22 PM
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Oklahoma (-29) hammered UCLA 49-21 LY, throwing for 306 yards, outgaining Bruins by 102 yards. Under Riley, Sooners are 2-4-1 as road faves, 5-3 ATS outside Big X- they beat Houston 49-31 in their opener, giving up 241 RY. UCLA is 0-2, losing 24-14 to Cincy, 23-14 to San Diego State; they’ve run ball for only 124 yards, and have -4 turnover ratio. Last six years, Bruins are 2-7 ATS as a home underdog. Last 8+ years, Big X teams are 17-11-1 ATS when playing a Pac-12 squad. Last 25 times Oklahoma was a road favorite, game went over the total 22 times.
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Old 09-13-2019, 12:22 PM
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Texas Tech beat a couple of stiffs to start its season; Red Raiders have a new coach, are 1-4 ATS in last five games as a road favorite. Tech has an OL with 115 returning starts, and a soph QB who started 7 games LY. Arizona allowed 86 points, 1,037 TY in its first two games; they lost 45-38 at Hawai’i, routed NAU 65-41 LW, giving up 373 PY. Since 2012, Wildcats are 12-7 ATS as a home underdog. Arizona is 6-12-1 ATS in its last 19 non-conference games. Last 8+ years, Big X teams are 17-11-1 ATS when playing a Pac-12 squad.
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Old 09-13-2019, 12:33 PM
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Betting Recap - Week 2
Joe Williams

College Football Week 2 Results

WAGER Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 67-7
Against the Spread 36-35-3

WAGER Home-Away
Straight Up 58-16
Against the Spread 35-36-3

WAGER Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 38-36

YEAR TO DATE Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 147-16
Against the Spread 77-81-5

YEAR TO DATE Home-Away
Straight Up 128-31
Against the Spread 74-80-5

YEAR TO DATE Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 77-85-2

The largest underdogs to win straight up
California (+13.5, ML +450) at Washington, 20-19
Western Kentucky (+8, ML +260) at FIU, 20-14
San Diego State (+7.5, ML +260) at UCLA, 23-14
Coastal Carolina (+7, ML +240) at Kansas, 12-7
North Carolina (+5, ML +180) vs. Miami-FL, 28-25

The largest favorites to cover
Oklahoma (-46.5) vs. South Dakota, 70-14
Oklahoma State (-41.5) vs. McNeese, 56-14
South Carolina (-36) vs. Charleston Souther, 72-10
Indiana (-35.5) vs. Eastern Illinois, 52-0
Wisconsin (-35) vs. Central Michigan, 61-0

AMERICAN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE (AAC)

-- Connecticut fell 31-23 to Illinois as 21-point underdogs at home, comfortably covering. They're 1-1 SU/ATS as the 'under' has connected in each of their first two outings. ... South Florida lost 14-10 at Georgia Tech, slipping to 0-2 SU while earning their first cover. The 'under' is also 2-0, as the Bulls have managed a total of just 10 points through two outings. ... SMU posted the 49-27 victory over North Texas to move to 2-0 SU/ATS with the 'over' also at 2-0. The Mustangs are average 43.0 points per game (PPG) while allowed 28.5 PPG. ... Memphis moved to 2-0 SU/1-1 ATS with a win and non-cover against FCS Southern. The 'over' also cashed after a low-scoring 15-10 victory in Week 1.

ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE (ACC)

-- Boston College posted a 45-13 win over FCS Richmond in a game which involved a 'bad beat' (see below) concerning the total. ... Virginia Tech rebounded with a 31-17 win over Old Dominion, exacting a little revenge after losing in Norfolk to the Monarchs last season. ... Clemson passed their first early-season test, dropping Texas A&M in Death Valley by a 24-10 score in an 'under' result. ... Florida State was forced to overtime against Louisiana-Monroe of the Sun Belt. The Warhawks kicked missed the extra point in overtime, as FSU escaped 45-44. The Seminoles are 1-1 SU/0-2 ATS to date, with the 'over' going 2-0. ... North Carolina have moved to 2-0 SU/ATS under Mack Brown, pushing aside Miami-Florida by a 28-25 count at Kenan Stadium in Chapel Hill. The Hurricanes are now 0-2 SU/1-1 ATS.

BIG TEN

-- Ohio State blasted Cincinnati by a 42-0 count, covering for the first time after failing to do so in the opener. ... Minnesota won in late-night action at Fresno State, surviving by a 38-35 count in double-overtime. The Gophers converted on fourth and long to score a late touchdown to force overtime, and then they registered an interception in the end zone by Antoine Winfield Jr. to move to 2-0 SU/0-2 ATS. ... Indiana routed FCS Eastern Illinois by a 52-0 count, covering a big number. They will host the Buckeyes next Saturday at 'The Rock'. ... Michigan State struggled on offense in Week 1, but they righted the ship in a 51-17 win over Western Michigan, evening their ATS mark at 1-1. ... Rutgers was dumped 30-0 at Iowa in their Big Ten opener. After throwing up 48 in their opener, the Scarlet Knights were completely different on offense in this one. Rutgers has allowed 25.5 PPG through two contests. ... Michigan was pushed to the test at the Big House against Army, needing overtime before escaping with the win. That's 0-2 ATS for the Wolverines to start. Army has locked it down on defense, allowing just 15.5 PPG for a pair of unders.

BIG 12

-- Kansas State pounded Bowling Green in a 52-0 shutout, covering the 25-point number. The Wildcats haven't exactly had much resistance through two games, but they're 2-0 SU/ATS just the same. ... Kansas won their opener, kicking off the Les Miles era in style, but they fell at home in Game 2 to Coastal Carolina of the Sun Belt. The Jayhawks are 0-2 ATS through two outings and the 'under' has connected in each outing, too. ... Texas dropped LSU in Austin by a 45-38 count. If you were laying the 6 1/2 with LSU, you were loving life when they converted a two-point conversion with just over two minutes to go, pushing their lead to 14. Texas scored late, but misfired on the onside kick to fail to cover.

CONFERENCE USA

-- Charlotte picked up the cover in a 56-41 road loss at Appalachian State. The 'over' has connected in each of the first two for the 49ers, as they're averaging 45.0 PPG on offense and allowed 42.0 PPG on defense. ... Alabama-Birmingham posted a 31-20 road win against Akron on the road. A touchdown by the Zips with 4:42 to go flipped the total from an 'under' to an 'over'. The Blazers are 2-0 SU, but 1-1 ATS with the total 1-1. ... Rice scored a late touchdown in a 41-21 loss to Wake Forest scored a late touchdown with 1:51 to go, helped out by sloppy tackling by the Demon Deacons and a screen from the umpire, helping the Owls push at most shops at +20. The late touchdown also flipped the total from 'under' to 'over'.

MID-AMERICAN (MAC)

-- Kent State survived by a 26-23 score against FCS Kennesaw State. It looks like a low-quality win, but the Owls from Kennesaw, Ga. are actually a Top 15 team in the FCS rankings. ... Ball State roughed up their FCS foe, topping Fordham by a 57-29 score, although they failed to cover the 29 1/2-point number. They're 1-1 SU/ATS, with FAU on the horizon next week. The Cardinals are averaging 35.5 PPG while allowed 31.5 PPG. ... Eastern Michigan fell at Kentucky, slipping to 1-1 SU/ATS, both on the road. If the Eagles are to be successfull, they'll need better D. They're allowing 30.5 PPG through two outings. ... Northern Illinois fell at Utah, 35-17, although they were able to cover for the second time in as many weeks.

MOUNTAIN WEST

-- Boise State won a defensive slog on the Smurf Turf on Friday night, slipping by Marshall by a 14-7 score. The Broncos were much better defensively after their opening-game win at FSU. ... San Diego State improved to 2-0 with a road win against UCLA, 23-14. The Aztecs have had it on lockdown defensively, allowing just 7.0 PPG through two games while averaging 14.5 PPG. As such, the 'under' has easily hit in each of their two outings. ... Wyoming posted a 23-14 road win at Texas State, 23-14. It wasn't pretty, but they moved to 2-0 SU/ATS. ... Hawaii is now 2-0 SU/1-1 ATS in their two games so far, both against Pac-12 foes. They edged Oregon State 31-28, failing to cover a 6 1/2-point number. They hit the road for Washington next week in their first visit to the mainland, and third game in as many weeks against the Pac-12.

PAC-12

-- Oregon blasted Nevada by a 77-6 score, rebounding after their crumbling against Auburn last week. The Wolf Pack slipped to 1-7 all-time against the Ducks, and this was the second time they had a 70-burger hung on their by UO. Oregon also won 72-10 against Nevada at Autzen Stadium back in 1999. ... California and Washington had to endure a lengthy and rare lightning delay in Seattle. For the Bears it was worth the wait. They pulled off the 20-19 victory, dealing the Huskies a likely death blow to their playoff chances. Sure, a lot of things can happen, but the Pac-12 doesn't need any more of a challenge. ... USC posted a 45-20 win against Stanford in a battle between backup QBs. True freshman Kedon Slovis was the truth, posting very efficient numbers. K.J. Costello was out with a concussion, so Davis Mills was under center. The Cardinal hung in there until half, trailing 24-20. The 'over' was already in the bag by then, but Stanford was blanked in the second half.

SOUTHEASTERN (SEC)

-- Mississippi State pushed past Southern Miss of Conference USA, 38-15, as they covered the 16 1/2-point number. The Bulldogs have been consistent, notching 38 points in each of their games. As such, the 'over' has connected in each outing. ... Auburn had a bit of a hangover against Tulane, 24-6. Perhaps they were terribly impressive on offense, but they're 2-0 SU/ATS, and the 'under' has hit in each of the battles. They get Kent State next week on the Plains. ... Mississippi won 31-17 against Arkansas, as they are allowed just 16.0 PPG. The 'under' has hit in each of the two games for the Rebels. They get FCS Southeast Louisiana next week in Oxford. ... South Carolina bounced back after last week's setback on a neutral field against UNC, topping FCS Charleston Southern by a 72-10 score as 36-point favorites.

SUN BELT

-- Georgia State moved to 2-0 SU and 1-0-1 ATS with a narrow 48-42 win over FCS Furman, a Top 10 team in the FCS rankings. Their unblemished record will be put to the test again next week at Western Michigan of the MAC. ... Georgia Southern picked up a 26-18 win over FCS Maine, bouncing back from a thrashing at the hands of LSU last week. The Eagles are 0-2 ATS so far, though. ... Arkansas State were very rude guests at UNLV, winning 43-17 to bounce back from a loss to SMU last week. The Red Wolves offense is clicking, averaging 36.5 PPG while allowed 27.0 PPG. Next up is a trip to Georgia. Ouch.

Bad Beats

-- Nebraska fell 34-31 at Colorado in overtime. The total was 63.5, and there were 48 points on the board with 5:49 to go until the Cornhuskers scored to take a 31-24 lead. With Nebraska covering a 4 1/2-point number, Colorado was able to score a touchdown with just :46 to go in regulation, tying it at 31-31. They eliminated a winning ticket for 'under' bettors, too. The Buffs posted a field goal in overtime to clinch the win and cover.

-- In the BYU-Tennessee game, it appeared the Vols had it in the bag, but the Cougars moved it down the field for a game-tying field goal with :01 in regulation, tying it 16-16. With a total of 51.5, under bettors still had some wiggle room. But both teams exchanged touchdowns to make it 23-23. A field goal by Tennessee made it 26-23, so a defensive stand would clinch an under. No dice, as BYU pushed in for a game-winning touchdow to make it 29-26. The over cashed, and anyone who took the Vols on the moneyline, or bought a half-point or point on Tennessee were none too pleased, either, as the D could not hang on for a win and cover.

-- With a total of 56, Boston College led FCS Richmond by a 45-10 score late into the fourth quarter. Inexplicably, the Spiders kicked a meaningless 45-yard field goal with just :12 left in regulation to make it 45-13. Why? Under bettors couldn't believe their misfortune after going 15:09 with no points for what should've been a win.

-- In the USM-Mississippi State game, the total was 51. The Bulldogs led 31-7 midway through the fourth quarter before the Golden Eagles scored a 65-yard touchdown and two-point conversion to make it 31-15. With 2:20 left, Mississippi State cracked off a 22-yard touchdown run to pick up the 38-15 win, pushing the total over with that meaningless touchdown. It might not be a definition bad beat, but that touchdown flipped both the line and the total.
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  #33  
Old 09-13-2019, 12:33 PM
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4th Quarter Covers - Week 2
Joe Nelson

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in the second big weekend of the college football season. Each week there are several teams that cover despite not necessarily deserving it, as well as other teams that played much better than the final score shows.

Wake Forest (-20) 41, Rice 21: This Friday night spread eventually hit -20 for the Demon Deacons who were caught in a 14-14 tie after the first quarter. Rice wouldn’t score again until the final two minutes of the game, but that score cut the margin from 27 to 20 to give the Owls a push for many on the closing number.

Boise State (-14) 14, Marshall 7: While the Broncos were never past this spread Friday night as Marshall scored first, they were a serious threat to beat the number in the closing seconds. Boise State had a dominant yardage edge in the game, but Marshall had the ball with a chance to tie halfway through the fourth. An interception quickly gave the Broncos the ball back and Boise State led a 15-play drive to run the rest of the remaining clock, with those on the favorite not getting the breakthrough rush they needed with Boise State eventually taking a knee inside the 10-yard-line.

Georgia Tech (-4) 14, South Florida 10: After a disastrous showing in the opener vs. Wisconsin, South Florida did find the scoreboard first in this game with an early field goal. Georgia Tech would take over from there with two second quarter scores to lead by 11. Both teams had productive drives that came up empty in the third quarter and as Georgia Tech looked to put the game away South Florida picked up an interception to stay in the game. The Bulls slipped within the spread with an early fourth quarter score and appeared poised to take the lead after getting the ball back off another turnover. Facing 3rd-and-goal at the 1-yard-line, South Florida fumbled away its chance to go-ahead as the Yellow Jackets got the win but didn’t add points to get past the spread.

Colorado (+4) 34, Nebraska 31: A close call didn’t seem likely for Nebraska is this old Big 8 rivalry with a 17-0 halftime lead. Colorado didn’t score until late in the third quarter but struck again with a 96-yard pass play to climb within three early in the fourth quarter. It was back-and-forth from there with 38 combined fourth quarter points including Colorado tying the game with a 26-yard touchdown pass in the final minute. The Buffaloes went first in overtime and settled for a field goal while Nebraska lost seven yards on a 3rd down sack and wound up missing from 48 for a second straight difficult loss in this series.

Clemson (-14) 24, Texas A&M 10: The defending national champions didn’t score until nearly 20 minutes into this game but wound up leading by 14 at halftime. The third quarter featured more defense until the Tigers completed a quick 83-yard touchdown drive to lead by 21. Texas A&M had a golden opportunity to score in the fourth quarter, but wound up intercepted at the 1-yard-line. It looked like Clemson would add another score to seal the favorite cover but Trevor Lawrence was also picked off near the end zone to halt a productive drive. Down three touchdowns, the Aggies only had five minutes to work with but they put together a quality drive and eventually the spread result boiled down to a 4th-and-goal play at the Clemson 2-yard-line with 10 seconds on the clock. Kellen Mond hit Jalen Wydermyer for the score, meaningless to the outcome and the national picture, but a huge swing play for many in one of the marquee non-conference games of the season.

Alabama (-55) 62, New Mexico State: A 55-point spread seems outrageous regardless of the competition but Alabama wound up leading 38-0 at the half and had the margin to the 55-point mark through three quarters after answering a New Mexico State touchdown with 17 points in the final four minutes of the third quarter. Both teams had 3-and-out possessions to start the fourth before the Aggies broke through with a few decent gains after starting in good field position and nailed a 43-yard field goal that proved to be the difference in the game.

Wyoming (-7) 23, Texas State 14: Home underdog Texas State led 14-3 early and dominated the box score in this game. Wyoming managed to climb to within a point in the third quarter and then disaster struck for the Bobcats on a potential scoring drive with interception returned the other way for a 72-yard touchdown, suddenly putting Wyoming in front. Down six, the Texas State defense stepped up to hold Wyoming to a 19-yard field goal from 1st-and-goal from the 2-yard-line, but that kick put Wyoming past the road favorite spread with about 10 minutes to go. After an exchange of punts, Texas State appeared to give itself a shot at the comeback but a field goal was missed with three minutes remaining. Down nine in the final seconds, the outcome was set, but Texas State would get a final play from the Wyoming 6-yard-line with the spread result on the line but the Cowboys got the stop and turned in a second straight win despite losing badly in total yardage for a second straight week.

BYU (+3) 29, Tennessee 26: The Volunteers program has had plenty of low moments in the last decade but the start of the 2019 season is certain to join that growing list. The Volunteers led 13-3 at the half, settling for a pair of second quarter field goals. BYU would score in the third, but Tennessee still led 16-10 early in the fourth and then 16-13 much later in the game. The game appeared over as BYU was pinned at its own 8-yard-line facing 2nd-and-18 in the final minute but incredibly struck for a 65-yard completion and managed to spike the ball to stop the clock in time to get off and make the tying field goal. The Volunteers would have pushed or lost on most spreads as the real losers in overtime proved to be those on the ‘under’ as both teams scored touchdowns in the first session. Tennessee settled for three in round two and BYU needed only three plays to hand Tennessee a second straight home loss with a stunning comeback win.

Kentucky (-15) 38, Eastern Michigan 17: Kentucky was in control most of the way against Eastern Michigan but led by 14 through three quarters in a game where they had only a 76 yard edge in total production. Early in the fourth, Kentucky connected for a 54-yard touchdown pass from Sawyer Smith on his first throw after Terry Wilson was injured on a vicious horse collar tackle. Mark Stoops didn’t forget that play with his offense passing three times on a late Kentucky drive including on 1st down in the final minute when the Wildcats could have taken a knee to end the game. That throw resulted in a spread swinging touchdown, though Stoops is fortunate he didn’t lose another player to a senseless injury on an unnecessary play. Spread result justice was nearly served as Mike Glass drove the Eagles down to the Kentucky 10 in the final seconds, but couldn’t connect in the end zone.

North Carolina (+4) 28, Miami, FL 25: The Tar Heels had a hot start with a few big plays to lead 17-3 early, but Miami proved to be the stronger squad posting 99 more yards in the game. The Hurricanes went up 25-20 in the fourth quarter but failed on the two-point conversion try. The Miami defense seemed ready to wrap up the game, but North Carolina converted a 4th-and-17 and eventually went ahead with a touchdown with a minute remaining. The two-point conversion put the Heels up three but Miami quickly went down the field as overtime looked likely if not a win in regulation for Miami. The drive stalled and kicker Bubba Baxa had his third missed kick of the day leaving seven points on the field in addition to Miami failing on a 4th-and-1 in the red zone in the third quarter for a tough luck 0-2 start for the Hurricanes.

LSU (-6) 45, Texas 38: The Saturday night showcase game lived up its billing with an exciting display of offense. Texas trimmed LSU’s lead to 23-21 entering the fourth quarter but it didn’t take long for LSU to climb back up by nine. The teams exchanged scores again in quick order before Texas stalled and settled for a field goal to cut the margin to six points with four minutes to go, a significant figure with a spread that hovered near that margin all week. Texas had a chance to get the stop it needed for a shot at the upset, but on 3rd-and-17 Joe Burrow hit Justin Jefferson for 61 yards and LSU added the two-point conversion, ending hopes for the underdog with a 14-point margin. Texas would score in the final seconds but the road favorite escaped with the win and cover.

Auburn (-16) 24, Tulane 6: Tulane was a popular underdog with a spread that was as high as +18 upon its release. Auburn led by eight late in the third quarter before completing a long drive to lead 21-6. The Tigers added a field goal in the fourth quarter before a Tulane opportunity near midfield fell short. Auburn would fumble two plays later to give Green Wave backers a miracle opportunity with the ball at the Auburn 36 but Tulane only advanced a few more yards and again fell short on 4th down.

Texas Tech (-35) 38, UTEP 3: The Red Raiders led 21-0 at halftime and 31-0 through three quarters. Adding a touchdown early in the fourth, Texas Tech was past the number at 38-0. UTEP was intercepted on the second play of its next drive, but offsides gave the ball back and Miners wound up nearly doubling its game production by getting in position for a shutout-spoiling field goal with about five minutes to go, while also spoiling the big favorite cover for many as well.

Penn State (-31) 45, Buffalo 13: You’ll do a double-take when pulling up the box score on this game as despite slipping by the heavy favorite spread with a 32-point win, Penn State was out-gained 429-357 and had only 14 first downs. A pick-six in the third quarter put the Lions in front after actually trailing 10-7 at the half while a big punt return aided by a penalty helped Penn State quickly score again to suddenly lead 21-10. Buffalo added a field goal in the third to sit down by eight and seemingly well within a safe range for the underdog cover, but Penn State scored two more touchdowns in the final seven minutes of the third and added an early fourth quarter field goal to lead by 25. Buffalo then reached the Penn State 25-yard-line but failed on 4th-and-2 and with three minutes to go and a significant lead, James Franklin called back-to-back pass plays, the second of which resulted in a 56-yard touchdown that put Penn State ahead by 32 and was actually the longest scoring drive of the game for the Lions. Buffalo reached the Penn State 35-yard-line on its final possession, but again couldn’t convert on 4th-and-short as Bulls backers had a puzzling loss given a nearly 3:1 time of possession edge for the heavy underdog.

Minnesota (-3) 38, Fresno State 35: These teams have had exciting games the past two years with nearly identical results. Minnesota trailed 21-14 through three quarters and still 28-21 as the fourth quarter clock ticked down. On 4th-and-13, Tanner Morgan hit Chris Autman-Bell in the corner of the end zone, and he barely snuck a toe in for the tying score. In overtime, Fresno State benefitted from a 3rd down roughing the passer call and found the end zone on the next play, but Minnesota needed only three plays to answer. Going first in round two, Minnesota had to settle for a field goal to sit even with the common road favorite spread. Jorge Reyna took a shot at the end zone for the win on first down and he was intercepted by Austin Winfield, who sealed last season’s win for the Gophers with an interception in the end zone as well.
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Old 09-13-2019, 12:33 PM
sailfish sailfish is offline
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Hot & Not Report - Week 3
Matt Blunt

Last week's piece brought some positive results from the first week of NFL action, as divisional underdogs have gone 3-1 against the spread (2-2 straight up) so far with Monday's Denver/Oakland game still pending (with Oakland now the underdog), while the lone home team (Seattle) to host a non-conference foe barely squeaked out a SU win and never came close to covering the spread. Monday's got a game still to go in that scenario as well with New Orleans hosting Houston, but a 4-1 ATS record to start from last week's identified spots is not bad at all.

Yet, this week I am shifting over to the collegiate game, as they've got two full weeks of results already in the books and with full blown conference play just around the corner, this next week or two is the last time we'll have to break down a slew of non-conference games and the generally large spreads that come with a lot of them.

But so far this year we've seen two specific scenarios that can hopefully continue to be profitable this upcoming week, so let's get right to outlining them now.

Who's Hot

Backing 'Overs' on Power Five Conference teams after scoring 50 or more points; 7-1 O/U run so far

September is when you get a lot of 'cupcake' games for teams coming from the big Power Five conference schools as they pad their record and give their players some confidence before the meat of the schedule begins, so seeing 50+ points put up by numerous teams isn't that unheard of.

But contrary to what tends to happen say, with NFL teams after they put up 40+ (unders tend to be the way to go the following week there – keep that in mind for a few games in Week 2), these collegiate teams are fanning the flames of their offense all week long to keep that unit hot and put up another 'over' the following week.

Pac-12 teams Colorado and Washington State both scored 50+ in Week 1 and followed it up with 'over' tickets cashing in Week 2, Big 12 teams Oklahoma State and Baylor did the same thing, as did Big 10 teams Maryland and Penn State. The SEC wasn't about to get left behind either as LSU easily cashed an 'over' ticket against Texas after scoring 55 in their season opener.

The one Power Five team that failed to cash an 'over' ticket after scoring 50+ were the #1 ranked Clemson Tigers out of the ACC, as their game with ranked Texas A&M never came close to threatening the 'over'. Yet, at the same time, you could see that coming given the quality of competition on the field, whereas most of the other seven teams listed, had games against mediocre to good squads where defense isn't really a priority.

That 7-1 O/U record for teams in this spot could essentailly be nothing more than random variance combined with the notion that these strong offensive-minded programs would just prefer to play (and hopefully win) games that have both teams in the 30's and 40's if not blow a team out entirely. But what makes this scenario so interesting, at least for this week, is the fact that there are 15 different teams 'live' in it for their next game, after Week 2 saw plenty of them blowout much weaker competition.

The ACC comes in with the fewest teams once again as only Virginia is alive here after a 52-17 win over William & Mary. They've got a home game against Florida State up next which is a step up in competition level, but it's not like the Seminoles have looked good at all.

The leaders of this group are the Big 12 and Big 10 with four teams 'live' in this spot upcoming, as the Big 12 has Kansas State (@ Mississippi State), Oklahoma State (@ Tulsa), Oklahoma (@ UCLA) this weekend, with the Baylor Bears getting a week off before they try to add another 'over' to this result.

The teams from the Big 10 this week are Michigan State (vs Arizona State), Maryland, again, (@ Temple – who's off their own 50+ effort prior to getting a bye in Week 2), and Indiana (vs Ohio State), while like Baylor, the Wisconsin Badgers are hoping a week of rest doesn't cool off their offense that much.

SEC teams Alabama and South Carolina are both live in this scenario and play one another in South Carolina on Saturday, while Georgia hosts Arkansas State in what should be another easy victory for the Bulldogs.

And finally, the Pac-12 has Oregon (vs Montana), Arizona (vs Texas Tech), and Washington State (vs Houston) all apart of this scenario as well.

That's a lot of games to get through and there is little chance the 'over' continues to cash at the 87% clip it has so far, but digging deeper into some of those 15 contests and siding with the high side of the totals when they eventually come out in the next 24 hours or so could help you get the best of the number and hopefully get you to the payout window as well.


Who's Not

Backing Independent teams Against the Spread – 3-8 ATS

Since conference alignment is a bit of a theme this week, the teams with no affiliation to any conference have proven to be the worst bet in all of football so far this year. At 3-8 ATS, no conference is worse at cashing tickets then what the Independent teams have done so far.

And while it's true to say that the Independents are a small six-team “division” and would have fewer ATS wins on sheer numbers alone compared to the rest of the country that's got 10+ teams in a conference, only one division in all of conference football – the MAC East at 3-9 ATS – is comparable in terms of burning tickets. However, when you take a closer look at the three ATS wins from these Independents, you'll see that there is a case to be made that at least two of them were “gifted” to these Independent teams.

The first of those ATS wins that can be considered a gift was New Mexico State's cover as 55-point underdogs at Alabama. There wasn't a whole lot that the Aggies did themselves to earn that cover other then run the ball and sustain a few drives to keep the clock moving, as the 62-10 defeat was a point spread cover coming from the huge line alone.

The second of those 'gifts' for these Independents was BYU win over Tennessee, as right now just playing Tennessee appears to be a gift for the opponent. The Volunteers had an epic collapse in that game – punctuated by allowing a 60-yard pass in the dying seconds to give BYU a chance at a tying FG – and while BYU definitely did more then say New Mexico State to earn that ATS victory, anyone playing Tennessee right now has got to be the side you lean on.

Finally, the third ATS win for these Independents came from Army's near upset in Michigan on Saturday, and while that's not in the “gift” realm, had Michigan been able to hold onto the ball (three lost fumbles) and a fumble recovery TD for Michigan been properly called (if it was allowed to be reviewed or not) who knows how that game could have ultimately turned out. It probably won't have been near the sweat it was for Michigan fans, but covering the 20+ still might have been a stretch.

Regardless, these Independent teams are not ones that exactly ooze confidence in the betting markets right now, and with two of them – Notre Dame and Army – laying double-digit chalk at open this week, and two others – Massachusetts and New Mexico State - catching double-digit points on Saturday, it could be another rough weekend against the spread for these programs.
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OHIO STATE at INDIANA...In a stunner, Urban Meyer was just 1-6 vs. points against IU, and Hoosiers have also covered 7 of last 8 in series. Buckeyes just 2-6 vs. line away from Big Horseshoe LY. Though Hoosiers only 2-5 as home dog under Tom Allen.
Slight to Indiana, based on series trends.
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KANSAS STATE at MISSISSIPPI STATE...Klieman first road game with KSU. Bill Snyder maintained good dog marks thru end of his career, as Cats 15-5 getting points the past three seasons. Moorhead was 5-1 as Starkville chalk LY and did win 31-10 at Manhattan.
-slight to Kansas State, based on team trends.
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NC STATE at WEST VIRGINIA...WVU closed the Holgorsen years 5-2-1 last 8 vs. line at Morgantown. NCS just 4-6 vs. spread last 10 non-ACC for Doeren.
Slight to West Virginia, based on team trends.
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MARYLAND at TEMPLE...Terps were 0-4 as road dog last year for Matt Canada, but now 2-0 vs. line for Locksley. Owls won at Md a year ago and now on 15-7-1 spread run since mid 2017 (1-0 for Carey).
Slight to Temple, based on team trends.
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MIAMI-OHIO at CINCINNATI...In this long rivalry, Cincy has now won 13 in a row SU, though Miami has covered 4 of last 6 meetings. Red Hawks have now failed to cover their last seven non-MAC games. Luke Fickell 5-2 vs. line as Nippert chalk since LY.
Cincy, based on team trends.
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PITTSBURGH at PENN STATE...Narduzzi 12-6 as visiting dog with Pitt since 2015. Road team has covered last three years in series. James Franklin 4-6 vs. line last 9 as DD chalk vs. FBS foes.
Pitt, based on team trends.
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EASTERN MICHIGAN at ILLINOIS...EMU righteous 19-5 vs. line last 24 away from Ypsilanti, 15-2 last 17 as dog away from Rynearson Stadium. Lovie 3-4 as home chalk with Illini, 7-11 vs. line at Champaign-Urbana.
Eastern Michigan, based on team trends.
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ARKANSAS STATE at GEORGIA...Red Wolves only 4-6 as visiting dog since 2015. Though Kirby Smart only 11-11 laying DDs with Dawgs since 2016.
Slight to Georgia, based on team trends.
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AIR FORCE at COLORADO...First meeting since 1974! Calhoun 17-8-1 as dog since 2014, 10-3-1 last 14 as visiting dog. Buffs 4-10 vs. spread last 13 at Boulder.
Air Force, based on team trends.
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SAN DIEGO STATE at NEW MEXICO STATE...NMSU on 4-13 reg season spread skid since late 2017, and just 3-8 last ten as dog. Also 2-6 last eight vs. points at Las Cruces.
San Diego State, based on NMSU negatives.
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FAU at BALL STATE...Lane Kiffin was just 1-6-1 as chalk in 2018 after 9-2 mark in role the previous year. But Ball State just 2-6 as Muncie dog for Mike Neu since 2016.
Slight to FAU, based on team trends.
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NEW MEXICO at NOTRE DAME...UNM as cooled considerably, now on 8-18 spread skid. Though Lobos have lately had more trouble as chalk (3-12 since 2016) than as dog (11-11 that span). Irish just 7-10 vs. spread at South Bend since 2016 and are 2-6-1 laying DD since last season.
Slight to Notre Dame, based on team trends.
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AKRON at CENTRAL MICHIGAN... Akron on 5-10 spread skid (0-2 for Arth). Zips 1-5 vs. spread last 6 as MAC visitor. McElwain teams now 17-11 as home chalk since 2012 with CSU (1-0 with CMU), though Chips 0-4 vs. line as home chalk for Bonamego LY.
Slight to Central Michigan, based on team trends.
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STANFORD at UCF...David Shaw 13-6-1 as dog since 2011, also 5-2 vs. spread as visitor since LY. UCF 10-4 vs. line for Heupel since LY, now 17-8-1 vs. points since 2017.
Slight to UCF, based on team trends.
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ALABAMA at SOUTH CAROLINA...Last time Saban played at Williams-Brice he lost to Spurrier 35-21 in 2010. Muschamp 10-3 as dog since 2017, though only 2-3 as Columbia dog that span. Saban 10-5 as visiting chalk since 2015, now 12-3 last 15 vs. points as SEC visitor.
Alabama, based on team trends
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EAST CAROLINA at NAVY...ECU continues to skid, now 10-26-1 vs. line since 2016 (0-1 for Mike Houston). Pirates just 3-12-1 as road dog that span. Navy has covered five in a row overall since late in 2018.
Navy, based on ECU negatives.
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