Go Back   Sports Handicapping at cappersmall > >

Handicapping Stats Weekly stats, betting trends, formulas (mostly football season)

Likes Likes:  0
Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 01-12-2020, 12:06 AM
sailfish sailfish is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Northern California
Posts: 225,899
Rewards: 226,286
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1633
Likes (Received): 19666
foot Sunday 1/12/2020 NFL Betting Info

Good Luck and Have A Great day
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 01-12-2020, 10:51 AM
sailfish sailfish is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Northern California
Posts: 225,899
Rewards: 226,286
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1633
Likes (Received): 19666
Sunday, 12 January 2020 • 11:05 AM
305 HOUSTON @ 306 KANSAS CITY
Play on KANSAS CITY in the first half in All games off a win against a division rival
The record is 10 Wins and 0 for the last two seasons (+10 units)
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 01-12-2020, 10:51 AM
sailfish sailfish is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Northern California
Posts: 225,899
Rewards: 226,286
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1633
Likes (Received): 19666
Sunday, 12 January 2020 • 03:40 PM
307 SEATTLE @ 308 GREEN BAY
Play on SEATTLE using the money line in All games in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points
The record is 10 Wins and 1 for the last three seasons (+11.55 units)
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 01-12-2020, 10:58 AM
sailfish sailfish is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Northern California
Posts: 225,899
Rewards: 226,286
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1633
Likes (Received): 19666
Houston - TE Jordan Akins (hamstring) is out & WR Will Fuller V (groin) iis probable today versus Kansas City.
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 01-12-2020, 10:58 AM
sailfish sailfish is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Northern California
Posts: 225,899
Rewards: 226,286
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1633
Likes (Received): 19666
Kansas City - TE Travis Kelce (knee) is questionable today versus Houston.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 01-12-2020, 10:58 AM
sailfish sailfish is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Northern California
Posts: 225,899
Rewards: 226,286
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1633
Likes (Received): 19666
Seattle - WR Jaron Brown (knee) & WR Malik Turner (concussion) are probable today versus Green Bay.
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 01-12-2020, 11:00 AM
sailfish sailfish is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Northern California
Posts: 225,899
Rewards: 226,286
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1633
Likes (Received): 19666
Green Bay - RB Jamaal Williams (shoulder) is probable, RB Dexter Williams (illness) & FB Danny Vitale (knee) are questionable tonight versus Seattle.
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 01-12-2020, 11:57 AM
sailfish sailfish is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Northern California
Posts: 225,899
Rewards: 226,286
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1633
Likes (Received): 19666
Houston at Kansas City

Sunday, Jan. 12 (CBS, 3:05 p.m. ET)

Texans Road Record: 5-3 SU, 5-2-1 ATS, 3-5 O/U
Chiefs Home Record: 5-3 SU, 4-3-1 ATS, 5-3 O/U

2019 Record versus Playoff Teams

Includes Wild Card Results

Houston: 4-3 SU, 5-2 ATS, 4-3 O/U
Kansas City: 3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS, 5-1 O/U

Opening Odds

The SuperBook sent out Kansas City as a 7 -point home favorite and that number was quickly pushed up to Chiefs -9. The total opened 50 and has been moved to 49 at the Las Vegas outfit.

Off the Bye

Chiefs head coach Andy Reid owns an eye-opening 18-3 overall record in his career when his teams are playing with rest in the regular season. While most of the success came during his tenure with Philadelphia (13-1), he does own a 5-2 record with the Chiefs. This season, Kansas City diced up Oakland 40-9 in Week 13 after its ‘bye’ week. When playing with rest in the playoffs, Reid has gone 4-1 in the Divisional Playoff round.

Head-to-Head

The two teams have met twice in the last three regular seasons and the road team has won both matchups. Kansas City captured a 42-34 win at NRG stadium in 2017 while Houston earned a 31-24 at Arrowhead this year in Week 6.

Houston has gone 5-2 in its last seven games against the AFC West and it’s been perfect on the road versus this division, going 3-0 both SU and ATS as underdogs.

Kansas City defeated Jacksonville 40-26 in Week 1 but it closed the season with three consecutive losses to AFC South clubs, two of the setbacks coming at home.

Playoff Notes

Reid owns a 12-14 career record in the playoffs and he hasn’t had much success with Kansas City, going 2-5. At Arrowhead Stadium, the Chiefs have gone 1-3 under Reid in the playoffs and the lone win came in last year’s Divisional Playoff round against Indianapolis (31-13). Prior to the win over the Colts last season, Kansas City had dropped six straight at home in the playoffs with the last win coming in 1994.

Houston’s 22-19 overtime victory against Buffalo in last week’s Wild Card matchup pushed the club to 4-5 all-time in the postseason. Texans head coach Bill O’Brien is 2-3 and that includes a 0-1 mark on the road. Houston is 0-3 in the Divisional Playoff round, losing by an average of 12.6 PPG.

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes and Texans signal caller Deshaun Watson both own 1-1 records in the playoffs. The difference is that Kansas City has scored exactly 31 points in their games with him at QB while Watson has managed 7 and 22 points, the latter coming last Saturday at home. The Texans failed to score in the first-half of both those games and this will be the first road playoff start for the former Clemson standout.

Total Notes

The Texans own a 10-7 ‘under’ record this season and the low side went 5-3 away from home but the defense surrendered 31.6 PPG in three road games versus playoff teams. Kansas City saw the ‘over/under’ go 8-8 overall in the regular season, but it closed the season on a 5-1 ‘under’ run. The defense only allowed 11.5 PPG during this final stretch but that number could be misleading with five games against non-playoff squads. The ‘over’ went 5-3 at Arrowhead this stadium and that includes a 4-0 mark to the high side against postseason teams. The defense gave up 28.3 PPG in those games.

Houston has watched the ‘under’ go 5-4 in its only nine playoff games. Kansas City has watched the ‘under’ go 4-3 with Reid on the sidelines in the postseason. In his two coaching playoff wins with the Chiefs, they allowed a combined 13 points scored and the ‘under’ connected easily in both games.
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 01-12-2020, 11:57 AM
sailfish sailfish is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Northern California
Posts: 225,899
Rewards: 226,286
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1633
Likes (Received): 19666
Seattle at Green Bay

Sunday, Jan. 12 (FOX, 6:40 p.m. ET)

Seahawks Road Record:
7-1 SU, 6-2-1 ATS, 4-4-1 O/U
Packers Home Record: 7-1 SU, 5-3 ATS, 3-5 O/U

2019 Record versus Playoff Teams

Includes Wild Card Results

Seattle: 4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS, 3-3-1 O/U
Green Bay: 3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS, 2-3 O/U

Opening Odds

The Superbook opened Green as a 3 -point favorite and the Packers were pushed up quickly to -4. The total dropped from 47 to 46.

Off the Bye

The Packers have lost their last three regular season games after their ‘bye’ week. Two of those defeats came on the road, which includes a humbling 37-8 loss at San Francisco this season in Week 12 on Sunday Night Football.

Head-to-Head

This series has been one-sided to the home team with the host winning the last eight encounters between the pair. The most recent meeting took place in the 2018 regular season when Seattle defeated Green Bay 27-24 as a three-point home favorite. Prior to that game, the Packers had won three straight games against the Seahawks. The pair met in the 2014-15 playoffs and Seattle pulled off an improbable 28-22 comeback victory at home over Green Bay.

Including that outcome, Packers QB Aaron Rodgers is 5-4 all-time against Seattle and all four of the losses came at CenturyLink Field. Seattle QB Russell Wilson is 4-3 in his career against Green Bay but he’s 0-3 in his career at Lambeau Field and those teams were held to 17, 10 and 9 points.

Seattle has won four straight against the NFC North while Green Bay is on a 0-4 skid versus teams from the NFC West.

Playoff Notes

Green Bay hasn’t been in the playoffs since 2016 when they won its first two games before falling to Atlanta 44-21 in the NFC Championship. This will be the playoff coaching debut for Packers head coach Matt LaFleur. Rodgers owns a 9-7 career record in the playoffs as a starter and that includes a 3-2 mark at home.

Wilson improved to 9-5 in the playoffs in Sunday’s 17-9 Wild Card win at Philadelphia. That victory snapped a three-game road losing streak in the playoffs for the Seahawks. Since he took over as a starter in 2012, Wilson is 2-4 away from home in the postseason and that doesn’t include his 1-1 record in the Super Bowl.

Total Notes

Seattle has tallied the most road wins (8-1) in the NFL this season and the defense has traveled well (19.7 PPG). That effort has helped the ‘under’ go 5-4.

Green Bay’s total results had a tail of two seasons as the ‘over’ started 5-3 through the first eight games but the ‘under’ produced a 7-1 mark down the stretch. The offense only averaged 20.1 PPG during this span while the defense held opponents to 18.8 PPG. The ‘under’ went 5-3 at Lambeau Field and that includes a 3-0 run entering the playoffs.

The Packers have watched the ‘over’ go 5-1 in their last six playoff games, five of those contests taking place on the road. In the lone home game, the Packers put up 38 points during the 2016 postseason.

Seattle has seen the ‘over’ go 4-3 in its last seven road playoff games with Wilson at QB. The defense has looked sharp in three wins over this span, allowing 10.6 PPG. However, the unit has surrendered 30.3 PPG in four losses.

The Texans have seen the ‘under’ go 2-1 in their last three road games versus the AFC West and the defense has only allowed 20.3 PPG. The Chiefs saw the ‘over’ go 3-1 against AFC South teams this season.

Sticking with the ‘bye’ factor above, Kansas City has outscored opponents 74-12 in its last two games at home when playing with rest.
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 01-12-2020, 11:57 AM
sailfish sailfish is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Northern California
Posts: 225,899
Rewards: 226,286
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1633
Likes (Received): 19666
Hot & Not Report - DP Angles
Matt Blunt

Week of January 6th

Wildcard Weekend is in the books, and with both No. 6 seeds advancing, knocking off two future Hall-of-Fame QB's at home in the process, it makes for a changing of the guard the rest of the way. There are only two starting QB's left of the eight remaining teams that have played in a Super Bowl before, and after next week that number will be down to one with the Seahawks and Packers meeting in Green Bay.

But with just three weeks left in the season before a new champion is crowned, I thought it best to take a look back at a couple of different statistical categories that may not have a direct correlation to playoff success from the Divisional Round on, but have performed fairly well over the years.

So do what you will with this information going forward, but it won't be hard to see if it continues to follow suit. Although maybe the changing of the guard we've seen with the old guard at QB going down could apply to how bettors approach the rest of the NFL playoffs as well.

Who's Hot

During the past three years, from the Divisional Round on, backing the team that finished the regular season with a Turnover Margin per game that was at least 0.2 better than their opponent has gone 15-2 ATS

Turnovers are something that are hard to handicap, but if a team's been on the positive side of them all year long, that tends to hold true in the playoffs. Using a margin of +0.2 or better helps eliminate some potential rounding errors if you were to look at say, giveaways and takeaways per game, so that's why I went with that.

A 15-2 ATS record does mean it's not applied to four different games over the past years (4 Div games +2 Conf +1 Super Bowl). Last year's AFC Championship and Super Bowl were two of those four occurrences with the Chiefs and Patriots being tied in turnover margin per game at +0.6, and with the Rams checking in at +0.7, the difference of 0.1 between them and New England doesn't fit.

The other omissions here were the “Minneapolis Miracle” game between the Saints and Vikings after the 2017 season (New Orleans was 0.1 better then Minnesota that year and the Saints did end up covering that game by the hook), and the Super Bowl between New England and Atlanta. That Super Bowl fell into the same scenario as the “Minneapolis Miracle” with New England being 0.1 better in turnover margin per game and ultimately covering the spread.

What that does ultimately mean as well, is that if you just want to take the team that finished the regular season with the better turnover margin per game, you'd still be sitting with a 17-3 ATS record in this span, with the Chiefs-Patriots game last year being the only one that doesn't apply. Turnovers might be somewhat random, but a run like this does put a bit of a crack in that argument.

It hasn't always worked as well during Wildcard Weekend, as evidenced by the two best teams in turnover margin per game this season being eliminated (New England and New Orleans), while Buffalo was the other Wildcard team to fall while facing a team with a worst number in this stat. But, with the cream rising to the top from the Divisional Round and beyond, this regular season turnover margin stat is something to consider.

And looking forward for the Divisional games next weekend, we've got Minnesota (+0.8) vs San Francisco (+0.2), Tennessee (+0.4) vs Baltimore (+0.6), Houston (0.0) vs Kansas City (+0.5), and Seattle (+0.8) vs Green Bay (+0.8).

Those would suggest that backing Minnesota, Baltimore, and Kansas City next week should result in a profitable outcome should this trend hold, with the Seahawks/Packers game not applicable given their dead heat. Whether or not that's how it plays out remains to be seen, but if you are looking for a bit more support in supporting one of those sides you may already like, don't shy away from this data.


Who's Not

Expecting teams with a regular season point differential that wasn't +100 or better to make the Super Bowl; Only seven of 32 Super Bowl teams with a point differential of +99 or less since the 2003-04 season have made the big game

This trend was a little hard to formulate the correct statement for, because in other words, you really want to expect teams that finished the year with a point differential of +100 or better to be involved in the Super Bowl. In fact, since that 2003-04 season (the New England/Carolina Super Bowl), there has been at least one team involved in Super Bowl that did finish the year with a +100 or better point differential.

Taking it a bit further, you generally want to back teams that finished 1st or 2nd in their conference in point differential to go all the way, as the last time we had a Super Bowl game that didn't involve the at least one of the Top 2 teams from their conference in this category was back in 2008-09 season when Pittsburgh (who was 3rd in the AFC in point differential) beat Arizona (who was dead last among NFC playoff teams that year). That's 10 straight Super Bowls of having at least one of the top two teams in this category (among playoff teams) go all the way.

What that means for this year, is that Baltimore (+249 for 1st in AFC) and San Francisco (+169 for 1st in NFC) are on the fast track to be Super Bowl bound. As the respective #1 seeds in both conferences, that's not exactly a ground breaking statement, but before last year's game when the Patriots and Rams came in ranked 2nd in point differential in their respective conferences, the last time we didn't have at least one top ranked team in their conference in point differential in the Super Bowl, was oddly enough, the Baltimore/San Francisco Super Bowl after the 2012 season. In fact, at least one of the top teams in their respective conferences has made the Super Bowl in 12 of those 16 Super Bowls.

More importantly, with 16 different combinations left for this year's Super Bowl, what this trend does suggest is that we will NOT see a Super Bowl between Green Bay (+63) and Houston (-7), Green Bay (+63) and Tennessee (+71), Seattle (+7) and Houston (-7) or Seattle and Tennessee (+71).

Sure, one of these teams could go the distance, and I actually believe one will, but they'll likely be up against a powerhouse from this year, as the rest of teams, and historically at least one Super Bowl team has had a point differential of +100 or better.

Oh and for those that are curious, the sub-100 point differential team I do believe will go the distance this year are the Green Bay Packers. And the team that I hope they'll be up against is the team in the AFC I've liked since the summer; the Kansas City Chiefs (+143 point differential).

State Farm Super Bowl here we come.
Reply With Quote
  #11  
Old 01-12-2020, 11:57 AM
sailfish sailfish is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Northern California
Posts: 225,899
Rewards: 226,286
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1633
Likes (Received): 19666
305HOUSTON -306 KANSAS CITY
KANSAS CITY is 18-8 ATS (9.2 Units) against conference opponents in the last 2 seasons.
Reply With Quote
  #12  
Old 01-12-2020, 11:57 AM
sailfish sailfish is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Northern California
Posts: 225,899
Rewards: 226,286
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1633
Likes (Received): 19666
307SEATTLE -308 GREEN BAY
GREEN BAY is 39-14 ATS (23.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
Reply With Quote
  #13  
Old 01-12-2020, 11:58 AM
sailfish sailfish is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Northern California
Posts: 225,899
Rewards: 226,286
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1633
Likes (Received): 19666
NFL
Long Sheet

Divisional Round

Sunday, January 12

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HOUSTON (11 - 6) at KANSAS CITY (12 - 4) - 1/12/2020, 2:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) in playoff games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 1-1 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 1-1 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SEATTLE (12 - 5) at GREEN BAY (13 - 3) - 1/12/2020, 6:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 116-84 ATS (+23.6 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 199-144 ATS (+40.6 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 103-76 ATS (+19.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 76-48 ATS (+23.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
SEATTLE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 72-48 ATS (+19.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 1-0 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 1-1 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Reply With Quote
  #14  
Old 01-12-2020, 11:58 AM
sailfish sailfish is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Northern California
Posts: 225,899
Rewards: 226,286
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1633
Likes (Received): 19666
NFL

Divisional Round

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report

Sunday, January 12

Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 6 games
Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Kansas City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games at home
Kansas City is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Houston
Houston Texans
Houston is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Houston's last 10 games
Houston is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games on the road
Houston is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Kansas City

Green Bay Packers
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Green Bay's last 8 games
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games at home
Green Bay is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay's last 6 games when playing Seattle
Green Bay is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Seattle is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games
Seattle is 11-3-1 ATS in its last 15 games on the road
Seattle is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games on the road
Seattle is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing Green Bay
Seattle is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
Seattle is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
Reply With Quote
  #15  
Old 01-12-2020, 11:59 AM
sailfish sailfish is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Northern California
Posts: 225,899
Rewards: 226,286
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1633
Likes (Received): 19666
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5)

No. 4 seed Houston barely survived its Saturday wild-card game to advance to this AFC showdown. The Texans (11-6 SU, 8-8-1 ATS) laid a goose egg for nearly three quarters, falling behind No. 5 Buffalo 16-0, before rallying to tie it at 19 and force overtime. Bill O’Brien’s troops then squeaked out a 22-19 win and cover as 2.5-point home favorites Saturday.

Kansas City won its regular-season finale and grabbed the No. 2 seed and a bye when New England lost to Miami in Week 17. The Chiefs (12-4 SU, 10-5-1 ATS) topped the Los Angeles Chargers 31-21 for a sixth consecutive SU win, though they pushed as 10-point favorites, halting a five-game spread-covering run.

This game, with a 3:05 p.m. ET start Sunday, has seen the most early movement.

“We opened the Chiefs -7.5 and have been bet up,” Murray said of a line that posted late Saturday evening and reached -9.5 by Sunday morning. “The Chiefs will close any parlays that are left from the first two favorites (on Saturday). The books will need Houston pretty big on Sunday.”

Houston went on the road in Week 6 and beat Kansas City 31-24 as a 3.5-point pup.
Reply With Quote
  #16  
Old 01-12-2020, 11:59 AM
sailfish sailfish is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Northern California
Posts: 225,899
Rewards: 226,286
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1633
Likes (Received): 19666
Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers (-3.5)

Seattle blew a shot at a postseason bye and a divisional home game by falling short to San Francisco in Week 17, but bounced back just fine on Wild Card Weekend. The fifth-seeded Seahawks (12-5 SU, 8-8-1 ATS) beat No. 4 Philadelphia 17-9 catching 1 point on the road Sunday.

Green Bay won its last five games to snare the NFC’s No. 2 seed and a playoff bye. The Packers (13-3 SU, 10-6 ATS) edged Detroit 23-20 at Detroit on a final-seconds field goal, falling well short of cashing as hefty 13.5-point favorites in Week 17.

“The Packers were one of the big winners this weekend,” Murray said. “They would’ve been a small ‘dog to New Orleans and now host a Seattle team that caught a break of its own, with Carson Wentz going down in the wild-card game. This will be the most-divided game of the weekend.”

The line moved from Packers -3.5 to -4 early Sunday evening. This matchup is the last of the divisional round, with a 6:40 p.m. ET kickoff next Sunday.
Reply With Quote
  #17  
Old 01-12-2020, 11:59 AM
sailfish sailfish is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Northern California
Posts: 225,899
Rewards: 226,286
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1633
Likes (Received): 19666
Bet Now/Bet Later NFL Divisional Round odds: Go grab the total for this ground game
Jason Logan

The Titans have a very run-heavy offense which could soak up the play clock and keep the dangerous Baltimore offense off the the field in their Divisional Round matchup this weekend.

The NFL playoffs roll into the Divisional Round, where the betting markets reacts to the Wild Card results, forcing some interesting movement versus teams that earned a bye week in the opening round.

Getting the best of the number is vital in the postseason and with only four games on the board, Bookmakers have plenty of time to fine tune the lines before kickoff. Covers’ senior industry analyst Jason Logan looks at the opening odds and early action, giving you his Bet Now/Bet Later sides and totals for this weekend’s divisional matchups.

SPREAD TO BET NOW: SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (+4) AT GREEN BAY PACKERS

There are plenty of people down on the Packers and the fact that Green Bay enjoyed a first-round bye after a 13-3 SU record built on the back on softer opposition. Books opened the Cheeseheads at the dead number of -4 hosting the Seahawks, giving themselves some breathing room to move off action.

While most books are sticking to Green Bay -4, the juice on the pointspread is trending towards a move to -3.5 at some online markets as of Monday morning. Seattle was able to escape Philadelphia with a 17-9 win over the Eagles in the Wild Card Round, thanks in part to knocking QB Carson Wentz out of the game with a concussion after only two series.

If you like the Seahawks to cover in Lambeau this Sunday, grab all the points you can with Seattle right now. The Packers were able to slow down the Vikings offense in Week 16, but this defense hasn’t faced many challenges down the stretch. The banged-up Seahawks could also return some key bodies on the offensive line as well (Duane Brown and Mike Iupati), so try to stay ahead of those injury updates.


SPREAD TO BET LATER: HOUSTON TEXANS (+10) AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Houston’s Wild Card Weekend win over Buffalo wasn’t pretty. There were bad decisions made by both teams on the field and the sideline but in the end, the Texans were able to get on the back of QB Deshaun Watson and squeeze one out in overtime.

This line opened as low as Houston +7.5 (most at +8) visiting the Chiefs but that quickly moved as high as +10 and many books are dealing a double-digit spread for this Divisional Round game in Kansas City. The Chiefs enjoyed a first-round bye and, as the No. 2 seed in the AFC, get to host this game at Arrowhead, which will be deafening come Sunday.

The Texans did earn a 31-24 victory over the Chiefs in K.C. back in Week 6 but Kansas City finished the season on a six-game winning run and posted a 5-0-1 ATS record in that span, playing its best football to finish the schedule. While this line made a big move, pushing from the dead number of -8 to -10 isn’t as risky. Houston backers can grab +10 and wait it out to see if you can get +10.5 once the public plays the Chiefs.


TOTAL TO BET NOW: UNDER 47.5 TENNESSEE TITANS AT BALTIMORE RAVENS

The total for Titans at Ravens opened as big as 48.5 and is on the way down, with the number dipping as low as 47 at some books. Both teams put up a pile of points in the second half of the schedule, but postseason football is a different beast.

Tennessee is coming of a grinding win over New England, in which it handed the ball off more than 70 percent of the time and controlled the clock for over 31 minutes. The Titans must take a similar approach this Saturday, pounding the Baltimore defense with RB Derrick Henry and keeping MVP Lamar Jackson on the sideline.

When the Ravens do get the ball, there’s no secret to their game plan. This playbook went with the run on more than 56 percent of its play calls this season, which should keep the game clock draining and leave little time for scoring.

Beyond the offenses, both teams have solid stop units as well. Tennessee handcuffed Tom Brady and the Patriots in the Wild Card Round and Baltimore allowed just four opponents to score more than 20 points all season. If you’re on the Under, get in on this number now.


TOTAL TO BET LATER: OVER 45 MINNESOTA VIKINGS AT SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Behind a methodical rushing game (almost 37 minutes in TOP) and persistent pass rush, the Vikings defense looked good against the Saints, at least in the first three quarters of Sunday’s Wild Card game. Then, New Orleans stormed back and forced overtime.

San Francisco is very much cut from a similar cloth: control time and tempo with the run and disrupt the passing game with a rush that racked up 48 sacks on the season. That said, the Niners gave up some bigger offensive numbers in December and finished 3-1-1 Over/Under in the final five games.

Minnesota’s defense has been extremely inconsistent this season and got beat up on the road, allowing almost five points more per game as a visitor. This Over/Under opened 45.5 and has come down a tick to 45 points (even flashed a 44.5 at one book). If you think there are more points in store for this NFC Divisional Round battle in the Bay, take your time and see if you can land something sub-45.
Reply With Quote
  #18  
Old 01-12-2020, 12:00 PM
sailfish sailfish is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Northern California
Posts: 225,899
Rewards: 226,286
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1633
Likes (Received): 19666
by: Josh Inglis


COOKING IN THE BAY

Dalvin Cook looked healthy, racking up 120 total yards and two touchdowns in the Wild Card win over the Saints. Minnesota fed its workhorse running back, as Cook amassed 31 touches - a trend we hope carries into this weekend versus the San Francisco 49ers.

The Niners have an exceptional pass defense — the second-best in the league — which leaves Mike Zimmer and the Minnesota offense to try to exploit San Fran’s No. 11 rush defense, which allowed a middle-of-the-pack 113 yards rushing per game over the course of the year.

Cook will be going from turf to grass this week which helps the Minnesota RB. Cook’s splits favor grass over turf: 4.77 yards per carry and 10.16 yards per reception on grass versus 4.54 ypc and 8.52 ypr indoors.

With the Niners giving up the fewest passing yards to running backs, we're going to avoid Cook’s total yards and instead take the Over on his 80.5 rushing yards as the Minny RB has averaged 107.5 rushing yards per game against Top-10 teams this year.


TAKING HENRY OUT OF THE EQUATION

The Baltimore Ravens have come out of the gates strong this year, leading the league in first-quarter points at eight per game. The Ravens scored 22 times in the first quarter in 2019 with 16 of those being touchdowns. Baltimore will have its hands full with Derrick Henry, but if Lamar Jackson & Co. can jump out to an early lead, they could force Mike Vrabel and the offense to lean on the pass a bit more than they are used to. Tennessee finished last in the league in pass attempts per game over the final three weeks of the regular season.

Now that it's not his birthday and that Henry's hype is at its peak, Saturday night might be a great time to fade the league’s best rusher as his stock has never been higher.

The Ravens have allowed 101.2 rushing yards per game to opposing teams at home, which is the sixth-lowest production and included five Top-15 DVOA rushing offenses. We're taking a stab and fading the league’s leading rusher. Take Henry’s 93.5 rush yards and hit the Under.

If you want to somewhat hedge against yourself and against the elite skills of the Titans’ RB, look at Henry’s Over 0.5 rushing TDs for a very reasonable -117. Henry has scored a rushing touchdown AND been held to Under 93 rushing yards six times this year.


WORST PASSING D IN PLAYOFFS

The Houston Texans are going from seeing Josh Allen in the pocket to the reigning MVP in Patrick Mahomes. This is a serious worry for a Houston secondary that gave up 266.4 passing yards during the season (fourth-most) and even more on the road at 293.4 yards (second-most).

Although Mahomes hasn’t looked like his 2018-self since the injury — over 260 yards just twice since Week 11 — the added rest will only help the K.C. QB, who averaged 276 yards passing at Arrowhead Stadium this season. Over the last five weeks of the regular season, Houston allowed 300-plus yards passing three times.

With RB Damien Williams receiving plenty of looks through the air and Houston giving up the fifth-most passing yards to RBs, these extra gains should help us push Mahomes’ passing total north of 298.5 yards - a total we're taking the Over on.


ONCE DESHAUN A TIME

We cashed last weekend with a Russell Wilson Over rushing total and are setting our sights on this weekend’s second-best running quarterback. Last week, Houston QB Deshaun Watson took off a season-high 14 times which he turned into 55 yards — with a long of 20 yards. Even leading up to the playoffs, with his team’s postseason survival at stake, Watson used his legs to get things done, averaging 6.7 rushes for 37.7 yards from Weeks 15 through 17.

Back in Week 6, Watson terrorized the Chiefs on the ground, racking up two rushing TDs on 42 yards on 10 carries. With the game on the line, Watson knows how to extend the plays and get yards - something he might have to do a lot if Houston trails early and throughout this game. We're backing the Over on Watson’s rushing total of 30.5 yards and putting a little something on his Over 0.5 rushing touchdowns.
Reply With Quote
  #19  
Old 01-12-2020, 12:00 PM
sailfish sailfish is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Northern California
Posts: 225,899
Rewards: 226,286
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1633
Likes (Received): 19666
NFL
Dunkel

Divisional Round

Sunday, January 12

Houston @ Kansas City

Game 305-306
January 12, 2020 @ 3:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
130.014
Kansas City
144.650
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 14 1/2
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 9 1/2
50
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(-9 1/2); Under

Seattle @ Green Bay

Game 305-306
January 12, 2020 @ 6:40 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Seattle
130.801
Green Bay
138.127
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Green Bay
by 7 1/2
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Green Bay
by 4
46
Dunkel Pick:
Green Bay
(-4); Under
Reply With Quote
  #20  
Old 01-12-2020, 12:00 PM
sailfish sailfish is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Northern California
Posts: 225,899
Rewards: 226,286
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1633
Likes (Received): 19666
Aaron Jones is a big reason the Green Bay Packers are hosting a Divisional playoff game. Jones was second in the league in touchdowns with 16 and averaged nearly 100 total yards a game. Part of his success was his role in the passing game as the Green Bay running back had three or more catches eight times and put up nearly 30 yards receiving a game.

The Seattle Seahawks have been burned by opposing running backs on the ground (167 yards per game in Weeks 15-17) and through the air (61 receiving yards in Weeks 15-17) of late. With Seattle giving up just 1.1 passing TDs per game (4th-fewest) and forcing 0.9 interceptions per game (6th-most) this year, Aaron Rodgers might need to look underneath a bit more on Sunday night.

We are jumping on the Over 24.5 receiving yards for Jones as he is averaged 33.7 yards receiving in all 13 of Green Bay’s wins this year.
Reply With Quote
  #21  
Old 01-12-2020, 12:01 PM
sailfish sailfish is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Northern California
Posts: 225,899
Rewards: 226,286
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1633
Likes (Received): 19666
WILLING TO WAGER ON WILLIAMS

Since coming back from injury in Week 16, Kansas City Chiefs running back Damien Williams has topped 53.5 yards rushing, passed 2.5 receptions and eclipsed 23.5 yards receiving in both games. All of those are the RB’s totals for this weekend versus Houston’s 26th-ranked DVOA defense and 31st-ranked pass defense to opposing running backs. Williams’ backers could be treating themselves to top-shelf selections after Sunday’s afternoon game.

Williams has averaged 17.5 touches since his return and ran to the tune of 6.75 yards per carry and 8.14 yards per reception over that two-game stretch. Houston didn’t get burned on the ground last week as Devin Singletary rushed for just 58 yards on 13 carries, but the Buffalo back did take seven targets and turn them into six catches for 76 yards with a long of 38.

We are getting behind Williams in the passing game and taking a long look at all three of his passing props with the Over in mind: 2.5 receptions, 23.5 yards receiving and a longest reception of 13.5 yards.
Reply With Quote
  #22  
Old 01-12-2020, 12:01 PM
sailfish sailfish is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Northern California
Posts: 225,899
Rewards: 226,286
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1633
Likes (Received): 19666
Divisional Round

Last four seasons, underdogs are 9-6-1 ATS in this round of playoffs.
Reply With Quote
  #23  
Old 01-12-2020, 12:01 PM
sailfish sailfish is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Northern California
Posts: 225,899
Rewards: 226,286
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1633
Likes (Received): 19666
Houston has never been past this round, going 0-3 in their history. Texans rallied back from a 17-3 deficit, upset the Chiefs 31-24 (+3.5) at Arrowhead in Week 6; Houston had 35 first downs, outgained KC 472-309 and didn’t punt- they had three turnovers, missed a FG. Texans allowed 30+ points in five of its six losses; they’re 5-2 ATS as a road underdog TY. Three of their last four games stayed under total. Chiefs won their last six games (under 5-1), four by 10+ points; they’re 3-2-1 ATS this year as a home favorite. You’re reading ***************.com. KC held three of its last four opponents under 280 yards. Chiefs are in playoffs of fifth year in row, losing AFC title game at home LY; over last five years, #2 seeds are 3-6-1 ATS in this round.
Reply With Quote
  #24  
Old 01-12-2020, 12:01 PM
sailfish sailfish is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Northern California
Posts: 225,899
Rewards: 226,286
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1633
Likes (Received): 19666
Green Bay-Seattle have met three times in playoffs; home side won all three games. Home side won last eight series games overall; Seahawks lost their last eight visits to Lambeau- their last win here was 20 years ago. Seattle lost three of last five games; they’re 8-1 SU on road TY, with only loss to the Rams, 2-0 ATS as a road underdog. Wilson is 9-5 in playoff games, 6-1 in his first game each year- he played his last year of college at Wisconsin. Under is 3-1-1 in Seattle’s last five games. Green Bay is in playoffs for first time in three years; Rodgers is 9-7 in career playoff games, 5-3 in his first game each year. Packers won their last five games SU, are 5-3 ATS as a home favorite TY. seven of their last eight games stayed under the total.
Reply With Quote
  #25  
Old 01-12-2020, 12:04 PM
sailfish sailfish is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Northern California
Posts: 225,899
Rewards: 226,286
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1633
Likes (Received): 19666
Houston at Kansas City (CBS, 3:05 p.m. ET)

Of the four playoff totals listed this weekend, this number was the only one to get pushed up. The Westgate Las Vegas Superbook sent out 50 and it sits at 51 as of Thursday evening. Unibet, a major sportsbook in NJ and PA, is also holding 51.

Based on the point-spread (Chiefs -9 ), the oddsmakers are expecting a 30-20 outcome in this matchup and that number could seem high when we know the Texans defeated the Chiefs 31-24 at Arrowhead this season in Week 6. The ‘over’ cashed in that game and while the final outcome came close to the closing number (54 ), the high side had a nice pace as the Texans led 23-17 at halftime. Houston quarterback Deshaun Watson completed 30-of-42 passes for 280 yards but was picked off twice. However, he ran for two touchdowns and rushed for 42 yards. In the 2017 regular season, Watson passed for five touchdowns against the Chiefs but Houston lost a 42-34 decision at home in a wild game that saw 40 points scored in the fourth quarter.

Despite the success against the Chiefs, Watson is 1-1 in two playoff starts and that includes last week’s 22-19 Wild Card win at Buffalo at home. Watson put up solid numbers (20-of-25, 247 yards passing, 55 rushing yards) in the win, but I keep reminding myself that he’s been held scoreless in the first-half of two postseason games at home. Now he's playing his road playoff game at Arrowhead Stadium. Good Luck!

For our purposes, the Texans saw the ‘under’ go 10-7 this season and the low side went 5-3 away from home. However, the defense surrendered 31.6 PPG in three road games versus playoff teams and the 41-7 blowout loss at Baltimore certainly pushed that number up. The unit stood firm in wins over Tennessee (24-21) and the win mentioned above over KC.

In Saturday’s “Total Talk” piece, I touched on Ravens head coach John Harbaugh off the ‘bye’ and while he’s been great, Chiefs head coach Andy Reid is the master of NFL rest. He’s 18-3 in his career, most during his tenure with Philadelphia. At Kansas City, he's gone 5-2 and he's a combined 4-1 record with both teams in the Divisional Round. That includes a 31-13 home win by KC in the postseason over Indianapolis last year in this spot. The ‘under’ cashed in that game and the low side stands at 4-3 in seven playoff games under Reid in KC.

The boss of the Chiefs has only gone 2-5 in the playoffs since coming over from Philadelphia, where he went 10-9 with the Eagles. The one thing that stood out with the Chiefs is that they’ve only allowed 13 points in their two postseason wins under Reid and the ‘under’ connected in both games. Another reason to back the ‘under’ here is based on Kansas City’s defensive form. The unit allowed 11.5 points per game in its last six contests and that led to a 5-1 ‘under’ mark but five of those affairs came against non-playoff teams.

Fearless Prediction - Over/Under Picks

Even though the Chiefs have been made healthy favorites, I believe this is the toughest side to handicap this weekend. I’m very hesitant to back Watson but I’m not sold on Reid in the playoffs either. I do like my total play though – Kansas City Team Total Over. While Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes can be erratic, he moves the chains better than anybody in the NFL and the offense ranked first in third down conversions. He’s shown good form in two playoff games, posting 31 in each contest. Also in two games when playing with rest, Mahomes and the Chiefs have posted 40 and 31 points. I believe KC will get at least five scores, possibly six in the revenge game. I’ll call it Kansas City 34 Houston 24 in what should be an entertaining game.
Reply With Quote
Reply

Tags
1/12/2020, day, good, great, luck

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are Off
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 05:29 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, vBulletin Solutions Inc.
Resources saved on this page: MySQL 15.79% Host: cappersmallweb5