Go Back   Sports Handicapping at cappersmall > >

Handicapping Stats Weekly stats, betting trends, formulas (mostly football season)

Likes Likes:  0
Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 01-14-2020, 09:27 AM
sailfish sailfish is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Northern California
Posts: 226,353
Rewards: 247,194
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1638
Likes (Received): 19788
foot Sunday 1/19/2020 NFL Betting Info

Good Luck and Have A Great Day
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 01-14-2020, 09:27 AM
sailfish sailfish is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Northern California
Posts: 226,353
Rewards: 247,194
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1638
Likes (Received): 19788
Sunday, 19 January 2020 • 03:40 PM
311 GREEN BAY @ 312 SAN FRANCISCO
Play on GREEN BAY using the money line in All games in all games
The record is 14 Wins and 3 this season (+11.6 units)
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 01-14-2020, 09:50 AM
sailfish sailfish is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Northern California
Posts: 226,353
Rewards: 247,194
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1638
Likes (Received): 19788
AFC Championship

Tennessee at Kansas City

Sunday, Jan. 19 (CBS, 3:05 p.m. ET)

Titans Road Record: 7-3 SU, 7-3 ATS, 5-5 O/U
Chiefs Home Record: 6-3 SU, 5-3-1 ATS, 6-3 O/U

Record versus Playoff Teams
Includes Wild Card and Divisional Results

Tennessee: 4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS, 3-4 O/U
Kansas City: 4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS, 6-1 O/U

Opening Odds

After the Chiefs rallied past the Texans in the AFC divisional round, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook sent out Kansas City as a 7 -point home favorite with a total of 52.

Head-to-Head

These teams met in Week 10 of the 2018 regular season and Tennessee shocked Kansas City, 35-32 as a five-point home underdog. Kansas City built a 10-0 advantage and led 29-20 in the fourth quarter before Tennessee came back with a pair of fourth quarter touchdowns, capped off by a Ryan Tannehill touchdown strike to Adam Humphries in the final minute. Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes threw for 446 yards and three touchdown passes, while Titans running back Derrick Henry rushed for 188 yards and two touchdowns in the win.

Kansas City struggled against the AFC South in the regular season by losing three of four contests, but rebounded with the blowout win over Houston in the divisional round. Tennessee posted a 3-1 record against AFC West foes this season by beating Kansas City, Oakland, and Los Angeles, while getting shut out at Denver.

Playoff Notes

Tennessee head coach Mike Vrabel improved to 2-0 in the postseason in his short coaching career with wins at New England and Baltimore. The defense has allowed a total of 25 points in the two playoff wins, as Tennessee dominated top-seeded Baltimore, 28-12 to advance to the franchise's first AFC championship since 2002.

Kansas City head coach Andy Reid owns a 13-14 career record in the playoffs, while the Chiefs have gone 2-3 under Reid in the playoffs at Arrowhead Stadium. The first win came in last year’s Divisional Playoff round against Indianapolis (31-13). Prior to the win over the Colts last season, Kansas City had dropped six straight at home in the playoffs with the last win coming in 1994.

The Chiefs met the Titans in the 2017 Wild Card round and led Tennessee, 21-3 at halftime. However, the Titans rallied by outscoring the Chiefs, 19-0 in the second half to stun Kansas City, 22-21 as 8 -point road underdogs. Kansas City is playing in its second consecutive AFC championship game after falling short against New England in overtime last season.

It's been a long time for Kansas City in the Super Bowl as the franchise last made it in 1969 when the Chiefs dominated the Vikings in Super Bowl IV. Tennessee last played in a Super Bowl in 1999 as the Titans lost to the Rams, 23-16.

Total Notes

Tennessee has seen its total results produce a stalemate (5-5) on the road this season and the defense (12.5 PPG) has really stepped up in the playoffs. Since Tannehill took over at QB for the Titans, the club has scored 20-plus points in all six of their road games with him under center and that’s produced a 4-2 ‘over’ mark.

Kansas City has watched the ‘over’ go 6-3 at Arrowhead Stadium this season, which the easy high side (50 ) ticket in the Divisional Playoffs. Including the game versus Houston, the Chiefs have hosted five playoff teams and the ‘over’ is 5-0 in those games and the defense (28.9 PPG) hasn’t been sharp.

The Chiefs have seen balanced total results (5-5) with Reid in the playoffs. Vrabel has seen the ‘under’ connect in two playoff games as coach. In the Week 10 matchup from Nashville, the pair combined for 67 points and the ‘over’ (49) rather easily but it was also helped with 41 points in the second-half.

Prior to this game, the ‘under’ was on a 3-0 run in this series dating back to 2014 and that includes the 2018 Wild Card matchup. In the Titans’ 22-21 upset over the Chiefs, the total closed at 44 .
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 01-14-2020, 09:50 AM
sailfish sailfish is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Northern California
Posts: 226,353
Rewards: 247,194
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1638
Likes (Received): 19788
AFC Championship Trends

Since 1970, home teams have posted a 34-15 record in the AFC Championship.
In the last 10 years, hosts have gone 8-2 (80%) in the AFC Championship. During this span, bettors have seen their fair share of close calls and blowouts as five games were decided by double digits and the other five by six points or less.
In the first 49 games of the AFC Championship, favorites have gone 35-14 SU and 28-20-1 ATS.
Favorites and Underdogs have gone 5-5 ATS in the last 10 AFC title games.
Since the 1986-87 AFC Championship game, the 'under' has gone 17-16 in the title game. Over the last eight seasons, the 'under' is on a 6-2 run in this conference title game.
Kansas City has made two appearances in the AFC title game, going 0-2 both SU and ATS.
Tennessee has gone 1-1 both SU and ATS in the AFC Championship, both of those contests took place on the road.
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 01-14-2020, 09:51 AM
sailfish sailfish is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Northern California
Posts: 226,353
Rewards: 247,194
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1638
Likes (Received): 19788
Green Bay at San Francisco

Sunday, Jan. 19 (FOX, 6:40 p.m. ET)

Packers Road Record: 6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS, 3-5 O/U
49ers Home Record: 8-1 SU, 6-3 ATS, 4-5 O/U

2019 Record versus Playoff Teams
Includes Wild Card and Divisional Results

Green Bay: 4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS, 3-3 O/U
San Francisco: 4-2 SU, 5-1 ATS, 2-3-1 O/U

Opening Odds

Both San Francisco and Green Bay won at home in the divisional round as the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened the 49ers as a 7 -point home favorite with a total of 45.

Head-to-Head

The 49ers rolled the Packers in a Sunday night affair in Week 12 as three-point favorites, 37-8. San Francisco built a 23-0 halftime lead as Green Bay's lone touchdown came in the third quarter on an Aaron Rodgers touchdown pass. Rodgers was limited to 104 yards passing, while 49ers' quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo threw for 253 yards and two touchdowns, including a 61-yard scoring strike to tight end George Kittle.

That loss was that last one for Green Bay, who has won six straight games, including the blowout of Seattle in the divisional round. Since 2012, the 49ers have captured five of seven meetings with the Packers, while Green Bay has lost in three of its past four visits to the Bay Area.

The Packers are 1-4 in their last five games against NFC West opponents since 2018, while the 49ers are 2-3 since the start of last season against NFC North foes.

Playoff Notes

Green Bay won its first playoff game since 2016 in a divisional round victory over Seattle at Lambeau Field. Packers head coach Matt LaFleur improved to 1-0 in the playoffs after winning his playoff debut, while Rodgers owns a 10-7 career record in the playoffs as a starter. However, the Packers have lost their last two NFC championship games, each on the road at Seattle (2014) and Atlanta (2016). The last time Green Bay won an NFC title game on the road came in 2010 at Chicago, which also marked their most recent trip to the Super Bowl, which they won against Pittsburgh.

San Francisco dominated Minnesota in its first playoff game since the 2013-14 season in a 27-10 blowout in the divisional round. The 49ers are playing in their first NFC championship since 2013, when they lost at Seattle. San Francisco is hosting its first conference title game since 2011 when the Niners were tripped up by the Giants in overtime, 20-17.

The Packers and 49ers met in the playoffs in four consecutive seasons from 1995-1998 as Green Bay won three of four times. In 2012 and 2013, San Francisco knocked out Green Bay twice, including at home in the divisional playoffs, 45-31 in 2012. The only time these teams have hooked up in the NFC Championship came in 1997 at Candlestick Park as the Packers won, 23-10.

Total Notes

In the Week 12 meeting between the pair, the Packers were held to a season-low eight points and the the 'under' (48) was never in doubt despite San Francisco scoring 37 points. Green Bay also laid an egg in its other trip to California this season, losing 26-11 at the L.A. Chargers in Week 9.

Green Bay’s total results had a tail of two seasons as the ‘over’ started 5-3 through the first eight games but the ‘under’ produced a 7-1 mark down the stretch. Sunday's 28-23 win over Seattle watched the 'over' (45) connect.

Including the result versus the Seahawks, the Packers have watched the 'over' go 6-1 in their last seven playoff games and five of them have taken place on the road.

The Niners' 27-10 win over the Vikings in the Divisional Round watched the 'under' (44 ) connect easily. Including that result, San Francisco has watched the ‘under’ cash in its last four playoff games.

Prior to the Minnesota outcome, San Francisco watched the ‘over’ go 7-2-1 down the stretch before starting the season with a 5-1 ‘under’ mark.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 01-14-2020, 09:51 AM
sailfish sailfish is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Northern California
Posts: 226,353
Rewards: 247,194
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1638
Likes (Received): 19788
NFC Championship Trends

Since the NFC Championship began in 1970, home teams have posted a 32-17 record in the title game.
In the last 10 years, visitors have shown more fight in this title game as the home team was only able to produce a 6-4 record in the NFC Championship. Those last four wins by the road teams weren't easy as the victories came by seven points or less and three were decided by exactly three points.
Favorites have gone 32-17 SU and 26-22-1 ATS in the NFC Championship.
Since the 1987-88 NFC Championship game, the 'over' has gone 18-14 in the title game. Over the last five seasons, the 'over' is on a 4-1 run in this conference title game.
San Francisco has been in the NFC title game 15 times, going 6-9 overall. Surprisingly, the club has gone 4-5 at home but this will be the first NFC Championship played at Levi's Stadium. Its last trip to the NFC Championship came in the 2013-14 season and they lost to Seattle 23-17 on the road.
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 01-14-2020, 09:52 AM
sailfish sailfish is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Northern California
Posts: 226,353
Rewards: 247,194
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1638
Likes (Received): 19788
NFC & AFC Betting Angles
Marc Lawrence

And then there were four.

NFL’s version of the ‘Final Four’ kicks off this Sunday in the Championship Games where surprises have certainly been the buzzword.

That’s confirmed by the fact that underdogs have managed to pull off upsets in 19 of 41 title games since the 1990 season, the most recent being both the Los Angeles Rams and the New England Patriots last year. More important, 12 of the 19 underdog winners went on to win the Super Bowl, going 12-7 SU and 14-4-1 ATS in the big game.

Let’s take a quick look at what’s worked and what hasn’t in the Championship Games, because when it comes to handicapping games at this stage of the season we can certainly use every edge imaginable.

What A Rush

Running the football is tantamount to success in the NFL, especially in the playoffs. See the Tennessee Titans this postseason.

It’s no coincidence teams who have managed to rush the ball for 100 or more yards in conference championship games are 29-16 SU and 31-13-1 ATS.

And when they manage to crack the 100-yard barrier on the ground against foes coming off a satisfying double-digit win, they zoom to 20-5 ATS in these games.

The Kansas City Chiefs allow more than 129 rushing yards per game at home this season.

Situationally Speaking

The oddsmakers have done a nice job overall balancing the books during this round, with favorites checking in at 31-28-1 ATS, and home teams 30-29-1 ATS.

Meanwhile, underdogs of 8 or more points are 12-6 ATS.

That could be music to the ears of Tennessee backers.

Gravity Alert

While high-scoring games tend to be the norm in the NFL these days, teams arriving to the championship round off a high-scoring effort in their last game have a tendency to come back to earth harder than a skydiver with a faulty chute.

Consider: only 11 of the 19 teams that scored 40 or more points in their Divisional Round victory have managed to win in this round, while going 6-12-1 ATS as well.

Worse, if these same teams are at home they are just 3-9 ATS.

That puts Kansas City on hard ground this Sunday.

Over There

Points aplenty in this league of late have forced the odds makers to raise the Over/Under totals bar.

Its what happens when there have been 34 OVERS and 23 UNDERS with 2 pushes in Championship Games.

Surprisingly, the higher the total the more OVERS there have been as games with a posted total set at 49 or more points going 7-3-1 OVER.

Stat Of The Week

The Green Bay Packers are 9-1 in one-possession games this season. They were 2-6-1 in one-possession games last season.
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 01-14-2020, 09:52 AM
sailfish sailfish is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Northern California
Posts: 226,353
Rewards: 247,194
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1638
Likes (Received): 19788
311GREEN BAY -312 SAN FRANCISCO
GREEN BAY is 11-3 ATS (7.7 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread in the last 2 seasons.
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 01-14-2020, 09:52 AM
sailfish sailfish is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Northern California
Posts: 226,353
Rewards: 247,194
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1638
Likes (Received): 19788
313TENNESSEE -314 KANSAS CITY
KANSAS CITY is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season in the current season.
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 01-14-2020, 09:52 AM
sailfish sailfish is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Northern California
Posts: 226,353
Rewards: 247,194
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1638
Likes (Received): 19788
NFL
Dunkel

Conference Championships

Sunday, January 19

Tennessee @ Kansas City

Game 313-314
January 19, 2020 @ 3:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tennessee
144.561
Kansas City
144.211
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tennessee
Even
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 7 1/2
52
Dunkel Pick:
Tennessee
(+7 1/2); Under

Green Bay @ San Francisco

Game 311-312
January 19, 2020 @ 6:40 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Green Bay
136.406
San Francisco
139.188
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Francisco
by 3
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Francisco
by 7
45
Dunkel Pick:
Green Bay
(+7); Under
Reply With Quote
  #11  
Old 01-14-2020, 09:53 AM
sailfish sailfish is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Northern California
Posts: 226,353
Rewards: 247,194
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1638
Likes (Received): 19788
NFL
Long Sheet

Conference Championships

Saturday, January 19

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GREEN BAY (14 - 3) at SAN FRANCISCO (14 - 3) - 1/19/2020, 6:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 199-145 ATS (+39.5 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 76-49 ATS (+22.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-0 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-1 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TENNESSEE (11 - 7) at KANSAS CITY (13 - 4) - 1/19/2020, 3:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
KANSAS CITY is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) in all games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) in all lined games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) against conference opponents this season.
KANSAS CITY is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
KANSAS CITY is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in playoff games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 2-0 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE is 2-0 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Reply With Quote
  #12  
Old 01-14-2020, 09:53 AM
sailfish sailfish is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Northern California
Posts: 226,353
Rewards: 247,194
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1638
Likes (Received): 19788
NFL

Conference Championships

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sunday, January 19

Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 7 games
Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City's last 7 games at home
Kansas City is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Tennessee
Kansas City is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Kansas City's last 9 games when playing Tennessee
Kansas City is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Tennessee
Kansas City is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Tennessee
Tennessee Titans
Tennessee is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games
Tennessee is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Tennessee's last 12 games
Tennessee is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Tennessee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games on the road
Tennessee is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Kansas City
Tennessee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tennessee's last 9 games when playing Kansas City
Tennessee is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Tennessee is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Kansas City

San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
San Francisco is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games
San Francisco is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 7 games at home
San Francisco is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Green Bay
San Francisco is 7-13-3 ATS in its last 23 games when playing Green Bay
San Francisco is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Green Bay
San Francisco is 6-15 SU in its last 21 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Francisco's last 10 games when playing Green Bay
San Francisco is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games when playing at home against Green Bay
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games
Green Bay is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Green Bay is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games on the road
Green Bay is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing San Francisco
Green Bay is 15-6 SU in its last 21 games when playing San Francisco
Green Bay is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Green Bay's last 10 games when playing San Francisco
Reply With Quote
  #13  
Old 01-17-2020, 02:51 PM
sailfish sailfish is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Northern California
Posts: 226,353
Rewards: 247,194
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1638
Likes (Received): 19788
Bet Now/Bet Later NFL Championship Sunday odds: Punch your ticket on the Titans' train now
Jason Logan

This Sunday will be the Titans’ fourth straight road game going back to Week 17 but with the way they’re playing on both sides of the ball, that tough sked may not matter to NFL bettors.

One of the four remaining NFL playoff teams will hoist the Lombardi Trophy in Miami, but that’s still a few weeks away. Football bettors are more concerned with this Sunday’s conference championship games and where the odds will end up by kickoff.

Senior industry analyst Jason Logan looks at the spreads and totals for the NFC and AFC Championship Games, monitors the line adjustments and market trends, and helps get you ahead to the moves with his best bets to make now and which ones you should make later.

SPREAD TO BET NOW: TENNESSEE TITANS (+7.5) AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

The Titans are making believers out of bettors, who snatched up the opening odds in Las Vegas which had Tennessee as big as +9.5 in Kansas City for the AFC Championship Game. Most books opened this matchup at Chiefs -7.5 (after watching that early action at select sportsbooks) but that number could get walked down to a clean touchdown sooner rather than later.

The vig on Kansas City -7.5 has been discounted as books try to entice some handle on the home side. The Chiefs’ thrilling comeback was something to behold, digging themselves out of a 24-0 hole versus the Texans in the Divisional Round, but they did have to fall into that hole to begin with.

This will be the Titans’ fourth straight road game going back to Week 17 but with the way they’re playing on both sides of the ball, that tough sked may not matter to NFL bettors. If you’re taking the Tennessee train to the book this weekend, grab the Titans and the hook now just to be careful.


SPREAD TO BET LATER: GREEN BAY PACKERS AT SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-7)

According to the early reports, bookies are expecting even action on the NFC title game. The spread has mostly stayed at a touchdown with some brief drops to San Francisco -6.5 before buyback on the chalk returned it to seven.

Both teams are well backed at the book, so this line should stay steady heading toward kickoff Sunday night. With the 49ers getting roped into parlays and teasers and Cheeseheads going all in on the Packers’ moneyline, those pots should continue to balance the overall handle for this game.

If you do like the Niners, there are some spots rolling back the price on San Francisco -7 and that discount in vig could indicate a line move to -6.5. Plug this sucker into your Covers Live App, be patient, and shop around when the alert hits your phone.


TOTAL TO BET NOW: OVER 51.5 TENNESSEE TITANS AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

The Chiefs spotted Houston a 24-point head start and still covered as double-digit faves in the AFC Divisional Round. That offensive showcase – scoring 51 points in 45 minutes or 1.13 points per minute (yikes) – is fueling the early move up for this total, which has climbed from 51 to as high as 52 points at some markets.

The Titans defense has been the backbone of Tennessee’s postseason run, locking down the Patriots for 13 points then absolutely draining the energy from the top scoring attack in the NFL, holding Baltimore to 12 points in the Divisional Round. But this Titans offensive attack can put up points of its own – as bettors saw in the second half of the regular season – and just scored 28 against a very good Baltimore stop unit.

The Chiefs are 6-3 Over/Under inside Arrowhead Stadium this season, allowing about four points more per home game than on the road. The weather in Missouri will cool down by the weekend but the extended forecast for Sunday is calling for clear skies and little to no wind as of Monday morning. If you’re thinking about betting the Over for the AFC Championship Game, you will want to get it quickly before we see all books serving 52 points or higher.


TOTAL TO BET LATER: OVER 45 GREEN BAY PACKERS AT SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

The Over/Under for the NFC Championship Game opened at 45 and has remained still in the 12 hours since posting. There has been slight tinkering with the juice at select sportsbooks but nothing big that would indicate a knee-jerk move up or down.

The 49ers defense looked reborn in the Divisional Round with key bodies returning at all levels. San Francisco was limiting opponents to less than 15 points per game in the first 13 weeks of the season but watched that stop unit come apart due to injuries in the final four weeks of the schedule. The Packers defense also looked good in the Divisional Round, getting some crucial stops and sacking Seattle QB Russell Wilson five times.

Looking at past conference championship games, there has been a market trend toward the Under. In the last three NFL postseasons, the totals for the AFC/NFC title game has ticked downward by a couple points off the opener in four of those six matchups. That said, the Over is 4-2 in those championship contests. If you’re on the fence about the total, see if Under money shows up again (and it might with an Over/Under count of 2-6 this postseason) and then make the call.
Reply With Quote
  #14  
Old 01-17-2020, 02:52 PM
sailfish sailfish is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Northern California
Posts: 226,353
Rewards: 247,194
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1638
Likes (Received): 19788
LOOKING AHEAD

The Super Bowl may be more than two weeks away but there's no reason why we can’t put down some bets on future Super Bowl MVPs.

The best long shot we see is a running back who took the majority of his team’s snaps last week - a team that's favored by more than a touchdown at home this week. Tevin Coleman out-touched Raheem Mostert 22 to 12 and ran for 102 yards and two touchdowns versus a Top-10 defense in the Divisional Round. This week, he gets Green Bay’s No. 23 DVOA rush defense and could be facing the Kansas City Chiefs’ No. 29 DVOA rush defense on Super Sunday.

A running back hasn’t won the Super Bowl MVP since Terrell Davis did it in 1998 and since that time 13 quarterbacks, four wide receivers, three linebackers and a safety have won the award. But with Coleman sporting +8,000 odds to win the MVP, we're taking a stab as the other three top running backs still in the playoffs are +1,200, +2,500 and +3,300, giving Coleman great value.


KING OF THE HILL

Tennessee and Kansas City battled in Week 10 this year with the Titans getting the victory, 35-32. It was the first game that Patrick Mahomes played after his knee injury and the Kansas City QB set season highs in attempts (50), completions (36) and yards (446). Tyreek Hill also set season highs in receptions (11) and yards (157) and will square off again against the Titans’ secondary that allowed 88.4 yards to teams’ No. 1 receivers this year, which was the second-highest amount in the league.

With Travis Kelce going off for 10-134-3 last week, we expect the tight end to receive a lot of attention. If Hill sees single coverage, he could top his yardage totals in as little as two plays. Hill has not topped 75 yards since Week 10 versus the Titans, which is why we're getting a reasonable total of 75.5 receiving yards. He wasn’t that far off, though, hitting 60-plus yards in four of his last games — those extra dozen yards are just one missed tackle for the 4.25 speedster.

We aren’t expecting a repeat of Week 10, but with Kelce stuffing the stat sheet last week we like the chances of Hill getting loose on Sunday. Take the Over 75.5 receiving yards on Hill’s total.


CAMPING WITH COLEMAN

Remember when we tooted the horn of Tevin Coleman? Good, because there's more Coleman value to be had this weekend. Coleman saw 46 percent of the backfield snaps last week with Raheem Mostert getting 34 percent and No. 3 Matt Breida getting a handful of late touches and absorbing 17 percent.

The 49ers ran 68 offensive plays versus the Vikings and ran the ball 47 times and there's no reason for them to deviate from a successful game plan if they get an early lead again.

Coleman averaged 4.1 yards per carry this year, but that number jumped north of five over the last four weeks of the season — in limited usage. The Packers allowed 4.7 yards per carry (24th) on the year and 5.2 yards per carry in Weeks 15-17 (28th). Last week, the Packers didn’t face much of a running threat in Seattle, but they did allow the 49ers to run for 112 yards on 5.1 ypc back in Week 9. We're grabbing the Over on Coleman’s rushing total of 42.5 yards.


TANNEHILL TURNOVER

Even without their best pass-rusher in Chris Jones, the Kansas City Chiefs still managed five sacks on a mobile QB last week. Jones is still questionable against a Tennessee offensive line that has had its QB sacked just once in its last three games. However, if K.C. can get up early — easier said than done — and force Ryan Tannehill to pass, it will greatly increase its chances of creating pressure.

In games that Tannehill has passed more than 23 times (six games), the QB has thrown five interceptions. Although Deshaun Watson never threw an interception in his 52 passes last week, there were plenty of opportunities for the Chiefs - spots that they can capitalize on this Sunday.

We are taking the Over on Tannehill’s Over 0.5 interceptions as Kansas City has averaged 0.9 interceptions at home this year.
Reply With Quote
  #15  
Old 01-17-2020, 02:53 PM
sailfish sailfish is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Northern California
Posts: 226,353
Rewards: 247,194
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1638
Likes (Received): 19788
Total Talk - Championships
Chris David

Divisional Playoff Weekend Recap

After watching the ‘under’ go 4-0 in the Wild Card Weekend, the low side trend continued in the Divisional Playoffs on Saturday with another pair of winning tickets. The ‘over’ tickets finally showed up on Sunday and bettors pressing their bets with first and second-half wagers may’ve been able to recoup their losses from the previous six outcomes as they cashed easily. Through eight games, the ‘under’ sits at 6-2 in this year’s postseason.

Playoff Betting Results

Conference Championship History

Prior to last year’s 37-31 overtime shootout at Arrowhead between the Patriots and Chiefs, the ‘under’ was on a 6-1 run in this title game. Meanwhile, the NFC has been the exact opposite with the ‘over’ go 4-1 in the last five title games and even though last year’s result between the Rams and Saints went ‘under’ the number, the pair still combined for 49 points. That particular game was the fourth NFC Championship to see overtime in the last 10 years and we’ve seen even total results (2-2) in those tilts despite the extra session.

Championship Total History (2009-2019)

Year AFC (UNDER 6-4) NFC (OVER 6-4)
2018-2019 New England 37 at Kansas City 31 (OT) - OV 56.5 Los Angeles 26 New Orleans 23 (OT) - UN 55
2017-2018 New England 24 vs. Jacksonville 20 - UN 46 Philadelphia 38 vs. Minnesota 7 - OV 39
2016-2017 New England 36 vs. Pittsburgh 17 - OV 49.5 Atlanta 44 vs. Green Bay 21 - OV 61
2015-2016 Denver 20 vs. New England 18 - UN 45 Carolina 49 vs. Arizona 15 - OV 47.5
2014-2015 New England 45 vs. Indianapolis 7 - UN 52.5 Seattle 28 vs. Green Bay 22 (OT) - OV 47
2013-2014 Denver 26 vs. New England 16 UN 57 Seattle 23 vs. San Francisco 17 - UN 40.5
2012-2013 Baltimore 28 at New England 13 - UN 49.5 San Francisco 28 at Atlanta 24 - OV 48
2011-2012 New England 23 vs. Baltimore 20 - UN 49 New York 20 at San Francisco 17 (OT) - UN 42
2010-2011 Pittsburgh 24 vs. N.Y. Jets 19 - OV 38 Green Bay 21 at Chicago 14 - UN 42
2009-2010 Indianapolis 30 vs. N.Y. Jets 17 - OV 40 New Orleans 31 vs. Minnesota 28 (OT) - OV 54

The Kansas City Chiefs have watched the ‘over/under’ go 1-1 in their two appearances in the AFC Championship while the Titans have watched the ‘over’ connect in their two visits to the conference title game. Make a note that Tennessee played both games on the road and they averaged 28.5 points per game while going 1-1.

Green Bay has played in the NFC Championship seven times and the ‘over’ has gone 5-2 in those contests. San Francisco has made more title appearances than any other NFL team, 15 in total. The club has gone 6-9 and the ‘under’ has gone 6-4 in the 10 games listed with a total.

Best Bet Selections

For the second consecutive weekend, I fired six plays and ended up breaking even at 3-3. It didn’t look good early with a 0-3 mark on Saturday but the ‘over’ winners on Sunday got us to 6-6 through 12 picks of the playoffs. As always, you can hear all the analysis for the AFC and NFC Championship on the Bet and Collect Podcast this weekend.

As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Tennessee at Kansas City (CBS, 3:05 p.m. ET)

Oddsmakers at DraftKings (**NJ & PA Only) opened this matchup at 51 and the number has been pushed up to 52 as of Thursday. A few Las Vegas betting shops are holding 53 despite low temperatures in the twenties expected at Arrowhead Stadium this Sunday. Tennessee (10-8) and Kansas City (9-8) have both leaned to the ‘over’ this season and based on their offensive performances in the Divisional Playoff round, you can see why the number quickly moved up.

Even though points are expected by the oddsmakers, the old boxing adage ‘styles make fights’ certainly fits this year’s AFC Championship matchup and your total wager will likely be correlated to your side wager.

We’ve seen the Titans knock off three straight division winners on the road and they did it with their defense, holding the Texans, Patriots and Ravens to 14 points or less. To be fair, Houston laid down in Week 17 and New England wasn’t an offensive power this season by its standards but holding the Ravens to just three scores (2 FGs, 1 TD) on the road was eye-opening. If Tennessee completes this run, it would be unprecedented and the finale is easily the toughest test.

Kansas City is coming off a 51-31 win over Houston last Sunday in the Divisional Playoff round at home and the offense was unstoppable after the first quarter as quarterback Patrick Mahomes tossed five touchdowns. Mahomes improved to 2-1 in his young career in the playoffs and the Chiefs haven’t been held to less 31 points in any of those games.

This contest is a rematch from Week 10 of this year's regular season and Kansas City will be looking to avenge a 35-32 loss to the Titans at Nashville. Mahomes was on fire in that game too, throwing for 433 yards and three touchdowns but key penalties and special teams mistakes cost the Chiefs. They put up seven scores that day at Nissan Stadium, settling for four field goals and they missed two attempts as well. If Kansas City connected like it did in the final 45 minutes last Sunday, it probably would’ve posted 50-plus on Tennessee as well. The Titans only put up 371 yards of offense against the Chiefs in their win and seven of the 35 points came from the Tennessee defense, a fumble return touchdown.

Touchdowns have been a common theme for Tennessee and it’s a large reason why it’s been a great ‘over’ team since QB Ryan Tannehill became the starter in Week 7. The Titans have only made eight field goals all season, which is absolutely crazy. In their last eight games, Tennessee has seen the endzone 40 times and it’s only kicked one field goal and none in the playoffs. Crazy, righ!? You don’t have to be a genius to know that putting sixes on the board instead of threes are huge for ‘over’ tickets and the high side has gone 9-3 with Tannehill at QB. In the playoffs, the defense has helped the ‘under’ go 2-0 despite the team averaging 24 points per game.

Fearless Predictions - Over/Under Picks

What’s impressive about the offensive numbers for the Titans is that they’re doing it with a ground attack behind running back Derrick Henry. Knowing Tannehill has only completed 15 passes in two playoffs games is another stat that seems unbelievable. I thought Tennessee would run out of gas last week but I was proved wrong and so were many other bettors. So why fade now? Well, the offense has been on fire but what happens when it doesn't click? The Titans scored 28 last Saturday but 14 of those points came on two big plays and the other pair of touchdowns were set up with short tracks (35 yards, 20 yards) from Baltimore turnovers. We're all well aware that the KC offense showed us how dangerous it could be last week but during the regular season, it averaged 24.3 PPG after scoring 30-plus points in its previous game. Tennessee has only seen one total close in the fifties this season, an inflated Week 10 number versus Houston, and the ‘under’ cashed. Even though Chiefs head coach Andy Reid has Mahomes, let's not forget that we've seen him tighten up in the postseason before and I could totally see him bleeding the clock early and often. My leans for this game are Tennessee Team Total Under (21 ) and the Under (53) for the game as well. I’ll call it Kansas City 26 Tennessee 15.


Green Bay at San Francisco (FOX, 6:40 p.m. ET)

Oddsmakers sent out a solid opening total of 45 on the NFC Championship and the number has held steady as of Thursday at DraftKings (**NJ & PA Only) and other major books in the US.

San Francisco has produced great back-and-forth total results (8-8-1) all season and that includes the ‘under’ (44 ) ticket in last Saturday’s 27-10 home win over Minnesota in the Divisional Playoffs. Green Bay watched the ‘over’ (45 ) cash last Sunday evening as it held off Seattle 28-23 at home and that result snapped a 4-0 ‘under’ run by the Packers. Including that outcome, the ‘under’ has gone 10-7 for the Packers this season and that includes a 5-3 mark on the road.

Similar to the AFC Championship, this is a rematch from the regular season and the first encounter wasn’t close as San Francisco blasted Green Bay 37-8 on the Sunday Night Football spot in Week 12. QB Aaron Rodgers and the Packers couldn’t do anything that night, getting held to 198 total yards. The unit was 1-of-15 on third down conversations and he was sacked five times. San Francisco QB Jimmy Garropolo didn’t have to do much (14-of-20, 253 yards, 2 TDs) as the 49ers led 23-0 at halftime and they could’ve been up 31-0 if they didn’t settle for two short field goals (29, 27 yards).

The ‘under’ (48) cashed in that game and the books have dropped the number three points for the rematch. Both clubs have been solid defensively down the stretch, especially San Francisco. The unit flustered Rodgers in November at home and they were incredible last week against Minnesota, surrendering just 147 total yards to QB Kirk Cousins and a Vikings team that traveled well this season. Rodgers is certainly a step above Cousins but the key to beating or competing with San Francisco is running the football and hoping the offense makes mistakes. Green Bay went 10-1 when rushing for 100-plus yards this season but the one loss came to 49ers – so maybe that theory could be tossed.

Rodgers has gone 4-5 in his career versus San Francisco, 0-2 in the playoffs, and that includes a 1-3 mark in Northern California. Unfortunately for him, the defense allowed 36.3 PPG at San Francisco in the losses and just three points in the lone victory. Buying the Packers based on the narrative of Rodgers alone is certainly justified. He’s 10-7 all-time as a starter in the postseason and the Packers have never been held under 20 points with him under center. That production has helped the ‘over’ go 11-6 in his playoff starts and that includes a 6-1 run to the high side entering this game. In his playoff wins, the Packers have averaged 30.6 PPG. So if you expect Green Bay to be competitive on Sunday then you’re assuming points to follow suit.

Fearless Predictions - Over/Under Picks

This isn’t an easy game to handicap but I believe the point-spread is fair and San Francisco is definitely the better team but I can also see how bettors are afraid to go against Rodgers, similar to fading Tom Brady or Drew Brees – two guys already sent packing this postseason. This 49ers defense is the real deal and their numbers against non-divisional opponents has been even better this season, especially at home. The game will be closer than the first meeting and Green Bay will score more than 8 points but my lean would be to the Under (45). San Francisco wins a tight one – let’s call it 23-17.
Reply With Quote
  #16  
Old 01-19-2020, 01:10 PM
sailfish sailfish is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Northern California
Posts: 226,353
Rewards: 247,194
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1638
Likes (Received): 19788
Andy Reid is 1-5 in conference championship games and 1-8 against the Titans. Tennessee (+6.5) ran ball for 225 yards, upset the Chiefs 35-32 in Nashville in Week 12, despite giving up 520 TY. Titans scored GW TD with 0:23 left. Tennessee is 9-3 SU with Tannehill at QB; they won their last five road games, scoring 31 ppg; Titans are 7-3 SU on road TY- they’re 4-2 ATS as a road underdog. Tennessee won its last four games with KC, winning last three by total of six points, with previous three wins all coming at Arrowhead. Over is 8-3 in Titans’ last 11 games. Chiefs won their last seven games (under 5-2), five by 10+ points; they’re 4-2-1 ATS this year as a home favorite. Since ’06, favorites are 5-4 ATS in conference title games without a #1 seed
Reply With Quote
  #17  
Old 01-19-2020, 01:12 PM
sailfish sailfish is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Northern California
Posts: 226,353
Rewards: 247,194
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1638
Likes (Received): 19788
Packers (+3) were held to 198 TY (91 PY) in a 37-8 loss to 49ers in Santa Clara in Week 12, just their 3rd loss in last 12 series games- they haven’t lost since. Packers won their last six games SU, giving up 15 or fewer points in four of six games- they’re 3-1 ATS as road underdogs TY. Four of their last five games went under the total. 49ers won last three games, scoring 29 ppg; SF is 4-4-1 ATS as a home favorite TY- over is 7-3-1 in their last 11 games. Last six years, #1 seeds are 7-4 ATS in this round. 49ers are in playoffs for first time in seven years; LaFleur is in his first year as a HC. Garoppolo is 1-0 in playoff games. Rodgers is 10-7. Green Bay won three of its last five visits to Santa Clara.
Reply With Quote
  #18  
Old 01-19-2020, 01:14 PM
sailfish sailfish is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Northern California
Posts: 226,353
Rewards: 247,194
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1638
Likes (Received): 19788
NFL conference championships betting cheat sheet: Impact injuries, weather, Pros vs Joes and more
Patrick Everson

Tennessee linebacker Jayon Brown (shoulder) is questionable for Sunday's AFC Championship Game at Kansas City. However, that didn't impact the line, which has been at Titans +7 since Tuesday.

It’s on to conference championship weekend in the NFL playoffs. Covers checks in on everything from injury updates to weather to Pros vs. Joes clashes and more, with insights from Eric Osterman, manager at The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Injury Impact

TENNESSEE TITANS: The defense is a bit dinged, with a few players questionable at Kansas City on Sunday, including linebacker Jayon Brown (shoulder) and cornerback Adoree’ Jackson (foot). Wideout Adam Humphries (ankle), who has missed the past six games, is also questionable. But The SuperBook’s oddsmakers aren’t concerned about those injuries. “No move for any of the Titans guys,” Osterman said. Tennessee is a 7-point underdog in this 3:05 p.m. ET kick.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: Star tight end Travis Kelce (knee) was limited in practice for the home tilt against Tennessee, but he was questionable in last week’s divisional win over Houston and had 10 receptions for 134 yards and three touchdowns. “Kelce would be worth a half-point if he didn’t play, but he’s expected to play.” The Chiefs are 7-point favorites.


Weather Watch

TENNESSEE AT KANSAS CITY: Snow and freezing rain hit Kansas City on Friday, but the weather is expected to be clear for the 12:05 p.m. ET kickoff Sunday. That said, it’ll be cold, on the order of 20 degrees with 10-15 mph winds making it feel chillier still. “It’s not expected to have much effect on the scoring. The total has actually gone up. We took some bets on Over 52, and we’re now at 53.” The total opened 50.5.
Pros vs. Joes

TENNESSEE AT KANSAS CITY: Friday morning, neither of the conference championship games had a Pros vs. Joes flair. By Friday night, that had changed. “We hadn’t seen too much sharp money come in, except for some early action on Tennessee, which is why that line came down,” Osterman said of a speedy drop last Sunday from Chiefs -9.5 to -7.5. “But we have started to see more public Chiefs money, especially on the moneyline and in teasers. If this trend continues, then I could see classifying it as a Pros vs. Joes game.”
Reply With Quote
  #19  
Old 01-19-2020, 01:15 PM
sailfish sailfish is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Northern California
Posts: 226,353
Rewards: 247,194
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1638
Likes (Received): 19788
Default
by: Josh Inglis


GRABS FROM THE BACKFIELD

Only the Indianapolis Colts have allowed more receptions to running backs than the Tennessee Titans this year. Mike Vrabel’s defense is averaging nearly six receptions and 49 yards to opposing backs per game. Through two playoff games, Tennessee has allowed 15 catches for 138 yards to New England and Baltimore’s running backs.

Last week Patrick Mahomes didn’t look Damien Williams’ way in the passing game often because he didn’t need to as Travis Kelce and the receivers were getting open at will against the Texans’ 26th-ranked pass defense. Williams played 62 of K.C.’s 64 snaps and fellow RB LeSean McCoy is banged up, so the volume is not the question. Will Mahomes look underneath for Williams versus the Titans’ No. 21 pass defense? We are willing to put some dollars down to say he will.

Grab Williams’ Over 28.5 receiving yards.


GOING DEEP

Last week, the Chiefs QB threw for 321 yards and five touchdowns. In the offensive onslaught, Mahomes had a long completion of 48 yards, something the reigning MVP has been doing since his return from injury. Since Mahomes came back in Week 11, the quarterback has had a completion of over 43 yards in five of his eight games and three of his four home games.

With Tyreek Hill and Marlon Hardman providing the ability to take it long on any touch as well as Travis Kelce’s skillset, Mahomes can turn a simple bubble screen into 45 yards or wait for a Hill double move and air it out. Either way, we like the QB’s chances of completing a pass longer than 43.5 yards.


WATKINS DIET

Chiefs receiver Sammy Watkins only has 12 receptions in his last five games, but the veteran receiver has turned those grabs into 211 yards, good for 17.6 yards per reception. Watkins has had a reception of 17 yards or longer in four of his last five games and is 9-5 O/U on the year of long receptions of 16.5 yards.

We are getting on the Over 17.5 yards for Sammy Watkins’ longest reception.


DOUBLE DOSE

Love the Chiefs to win but don’t feel great taking 7 points? Check out the Chiefs’ double result prop bet (-120). If K.C. wins the first half and then wins the game, you win. It makes cheering for the Chiefs’ first-half moneyline easier than 1H -4 and can give you action for the entirety of the game.

The same idea goes for the 49ers, but as they currently sit at 7.5-point favorites, their double result is a little juicier at -130.

If you’re looking for bigger odds in a similar market, take a look at result and total. If K.C. wins but the total goes Over 53.5, bettors can bank +140. And if you like San Francisco and the Under but don’t want to play the spread, take the 49ers and Under 46.5 for +150.


ADAMS VS. THE SHERMANATOR

If you’ve noticed, we haven’t put a lot of action on the Green Bay at San Francisco game. We like teasing the Under with the KC Over as well as San Fran -1.5 with KC -1, some Tevin Coleman props and that's about it. The San Fran defense is too scary a unit to bet against and the 49ers showed us last week that they can pound the ball if they want which kills the market in their passing prop game. The last lean we have on this game is the San Francisco secondary — mainly Richard Sherman — containing Packers’ Davante Adams.

Adams is coming off a big game last week (8-160-2) which could help us get a larger number on his receiving total this week. But the GB No. 1 has also gone over 100 yards receiving in each of his last four games and collected four TDs along the way. However, San Fran didn’t let Adams get loose in its Week 12 matchup as the receiver grabbed seven passes, but for just 43 yards. The Niners also allow the fewest yards to opposing WR1s this year (54.9 ypg) and held Stefan Diggs to two catches and 57 yards last week. We like the Davante Adams Under 83.5 yards a lot more than we like the Over.


RUSHING QBS

Apparently, losing means hitting your rushing prop total if you’re a quarterback. Last week, three of the four losing QBs hit the Over on their rushing totals. This week, Ryan Tannehill and Aaron Rodgers are the underdogs heading into the conference championships. Here are our best QB rushing props for the weekend:

Tannehill has rushed for 11 and 13 yards with a touchdown through his two playoff games and those aren’t numbers we can get behind for a rushing total. However, if the Titans get up on the Chiefs, Patrick Mahomes is more than capable of creating with his legs as his 53 yards on seven carries versus Houston showed. Lamar Jackson ran for 143 yards against the Titans last week and with Mahomes averaging just 15 yards rushing per game this year, we get a great number on his rushing total. Take the Over on Mahomes’ rushing total of 19.5.

Last week, the Green Bay QB took off five times for 14 yards. With his team jumping out to an early lead, Rodgers didn’t have to get creative. Sunday could be a different story with the Packers as 7.5-point underdogs. Rodgers has played 17 playoff games in his career and has won 10 of those. In those wins, he has averaged 9.1 yards rushing per game but has averaged a robust 28 yards per game on the ground in his seven playoff losses. Rodgers could also be under constant pressure from the San Francisco defensive front. Look to take the Over on Rodgers’ rush total of 12.5 yards.


TOTAL TEASER

The Titans knocked of the Ravens, but Baltimore still managed to put up 530 yards of offense and made 29 first downs compared to Tennessee's 15.

It’s safe to say that Lamar and the offense left some points on the board as they scored just 12 points. We doubt Mahomes and an offense that can score three TDs in less than four minutes will do the same. We’re going to tease this total down six points to 46.5 and hit the Over.

For the nightcap, we are going to move the posts the other way as San Francisco’s defense looked dominant last week and held Rodgers to just 104 yards passing in Week 9. The Niners look to be at full strength defensively and are keeping rushers fresh with constant substitutions. If Rogers is facing third-and-long often, the Packers will struggle to move the ball. We’re teasing this total up to 51 and taking the Under.


RBS BY THE BAY

With the 49ers relying less on Jimmy Garoppolo and the passing game and more on the running game last week, we’re quite content on taking the team’s best running back who led the backfield in snaps and out-touched his closest competition 22 to 12.

We liked San Francisco’s commitment to giving a running back a full series as opposed to constantly swapping for fresh legs. Kyle Shananhan seemed to prefer Tevin Coleman running the ball than Raheem Mostert, as the former took most of the snaps in the first and third San Francisco possessions.

Coleman ran for 105 yards and two TDs versus Minnesota’s Top-10 rush defense and will get to run loose versus Green Bay’s No. 23 DVOA rush defense that allowed two rushing TDs to Marshawn Lynch last week.

We are jumping on the anytime Coleman TD (+110) that we will pair with his Over 43.5 rushing yards. If you’re looking for a bigger pay out, snap up Coleman to score the first touchdown of the NFC Championship at +800 odds.


SHORT STORY

Through the eight playoff games, six of them have had a one-yard touchdown including all four games in the Divisional round last week. In total, eight one-yard TDs have been scored in the playoffs with Tennessee having scored one in each round.

Amazingly, a one-yard TD has been scored in each of the Titans’ last 10 games (including playoffs) with a total of 15 one-yard plunges occurring over that stretch with the Titans scoring seven of them.

Where are we going with this you may ask yourselves. Well, have you heard of the shortest TD scored prop? Its total is always 1.5 yards, making a team that has a knack for scoring one-yard TDs profitable. Currently, the Under sits at -125 which tells us we are sniffing in the right direction.

With a total of 53 points, we are expecting a high-scoring game in Kansas City which will hopefully give us a handful of chances to score a one-yard TD.

Take the Under 1.5 yards for the shortest touchdown.


TEASING THE POINT-SPREAD

This is as square as a six-point teaser gets, but we love the favorites and are more than happy to take them at -1 or -1.5.

Tennessee will have a chance to make history by knocking off three divisional winners but can it really go +185, +375 and +270 three weeks in a row on the road? We love taking the Chiefs and their quick-striking offense by less than a field goal. We are teasing the Chiefs’ spread down to -1 from -7.

As we mentioned yesterday, we think points will be hard to come by for the as their team total sits at 17.5 — about as low as it gets in the playoffs. San Francisco doesn’t even need to score TDs in the red zone to cover by 1.5 points. The 49ers rushing attack could be big trouble for the Packers rush defense that gave up nearly 120 yards a game. (10th most in the league). We are teasing the points down to SF -1.5 from 7.5.


THE STREAK ENDS IN ARROWHEAD

Everyone knows about the Chiefs’ offense and how it erased a 24-point deficit in the amount of time it took us to get a snack and a beverage. But the Chiefs’ defense isn’t getting talked about enough. They gave up nearly 450 yards of offense which looks bad on paper, but the majority of it was with Houston trying to catch up.

Outside of the opening drive's 54-yard TD, the Chiefs’ defense went: punt, TD, FG, turnover on downs, fumble, punt and missed field goal to end the first half. That was in a half where the Chiefs allowed 24 points. Houston would go on to score just one more TD and finish the day 5-for-15 on third downs, 1-for-5 on fourth downs and ran for under 100 yards.

With the Titans only throwing for 154 yards in BOTH playoff games, we don’t see them passing their team total of 22.5 points especially if the Chiefs can force Tannehill into third and long and use the strength of their pass rush to bring the kicking unit on the field.


SEVEN-MINUTE TIMER

Last week, the Texans scored two touchdowns in the first five minutes of the game at Arrowhead. This puts the Chiefs’ record to 5-1 with a touchdown being scored in the first eight minutes of a game at home.

Tennessee averaged seven points per first quarter in Weeks 15-17 and has also had success in hitting the early TDs. The Titans scored a TD on their second possession last week, their first possession in the Wild Card game and scored or conceded a touchdown in the first eight minutes of a game in each of their last five games leading up to the playoffs.

We are looking for an early score in the early game on Sunday and taking a touchdown scored before 8:00 elapsed (-120).
Reply With Quote
  #20  
Old 01-19-2020, 01:16 PM
sailfish sailfish is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Northern California
Posts: 226,353
Rewards: 247,194
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1638
Likes (Received): 19788
Titans at Chiefs Preview
Tony Mejia

Titans at Chiefs – 3:05 PM EST - CBS
Betting Odds: Kansas City -7, Total 53

Going back on the road for a fourth straight do-or-die situation means the AFC's No. 6 seed isn't sweating a daunting trip into Arrowhead.

Tennessee (11-7 SU, 11-7 ATS) cruised past a Texans team resting their starters in Week 17 to secure its playoff bid regardless of what the Steelers did. The Titans then went into New England and humbled the Patriots 20-13, clinching an upset win on a pick-six of the last pass Tom Brady may ever throw as a member of the team he’s represented for two decades. Last week, they went into Baltimore as a 10-point underdog and shut down an offense led by the guy sure to win MVP honors this season, Lamar Jackson. A 14-win Ravens team that set numerous offensive records was held to just 12 points.

Kansas City (13-4 SU, 10-6-1 ATS) knows exactly what it will be up against, having already lost to the Titans in Nashville back in Week 10 in a game that Derrick Henry took over. That has been the key to this entire postseason run for Tennessee, although seeing its defense excel has certainly also helped. Henry has facilitated that too, helping them stay fresh by keeping them off the field for long stretches due to his remarkable performances bleeding the clock and gaining chunks of yardage on the ground.

Henry gained 188 yards in Tennessee’s 35-32 win on Nov. 10 that was clinched when Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker had a 52-yard field goal attempt blocked on the game’s final play. Patrick Mahomes threw for 446 yards in his return from a dislocated kneecap suffered in mid-October and hasn’t lost since, so Kansas City is definitely confident it can continue to thrive at home, where it has won five straight and burned Houston 51-31 in last week’s divisional playoff round. He’s got a healthy offense around him to try and build upon torching the Titans’ defense for 530 yards despite being down multiple key offensive linemen.

Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce form a combination that stretches a defense to a point where it’s impossible to get everyone covered. The Titans’ offensive line has helped spring Henry to 588 rushing yards on 96 carries over the last three weeks. He broke a 68-yard scoring run against the Chiefs defense in their November win and has shown no sign of slowing down, looking completely recovered from a hamstring injury that hampered him in December. While this will be the eighth Kansas City game this season that closes with a total of 50 or higher, this will only be Tennessee’s second contest featuring a number this large. Houston beat Tennessee 24-21 in Week 15 in a game that closed at 50.5, so this figure, which opened at 52, may be daunting. VI totals expert Chris David provides analysis on the total of the AFC Championship right here.

Kansas City head coach Andy Reid is 1-8 all-time against Tennessee, which is wild considering his teams have largely been excellent throughout his career. The Titans have beaten his Chiefs in three consecutive meetings (’14, ’16, ’19), doing so under three separate head coaches and prevailing as an underdog each time. Two of those contests have been played at Arrowhead. Mike Vrabel is going to have no problem getting his guys to believe they can pull off another upset, especially since players have been quoted saying they prefer the buzz of a road atmosphere in raucous stadiums in Foxboro, Baltimore and now Kansas City as opposed to Nissan Stadium, which often fails to reach full capacity. Tennessee is 7-3 SU and ATS outside of Nashville, which includes five straight wins and covers since Dec. 1.

The Titans are seeking their first Super Bowl appearance since coming up a yard short of potentially tying the Rams in their first season after leaving the Oilers name behind in 1999. Kansas City hasn’t reached the NFL’s showcase event since prevailing in Super Bowl IV back in 1969. This will be just their third championship game appearance since then, having fallen at Buffalo in the ’93 season and last year in OT at home against New England. Reid won Super Bowl XXXI as an assistant with Green Bay but has only advanced past this round as a head coach, coming in 1-5 in championship games in his stints with the Eagles and Chiefs. All of Vrabel’s experience this deep into the postseason has come as a player.

While reigning MVP Mahomes played well in last year’s playoff run and has been largely sublime throughout his career, this uncharted territory for counterpart Ryan Tannehill, who came into the season as Tennessee’s backup and never won in Miami. He’s done a nice job staying within himself during this run, showing off his wheels when necessary. He threw a TD pass to Adam Humphries with 18 seconds left to win the first meeting between these teams and threw for two scores and 181 yards. He also fumbled once and was sacked four times, but may catch a break in avoiding Kansas City’s most feared defensive lineman, Chris Jones.

Jones, a defensive tackle who has blossomed into a star, is nursing a calf injury that may keep him out and severely hinder the Chiefs’ ability to defend against Henry and get after Tannehill. He hurt himself in practice prior to the win over Houston and hasn’t been able to work, throwing his ability to get out there into question. Kelce should be fine despite some knee discomfort. Meanwhile, Humphries, who has missed the past six games since suffering an ankle injury on Dec. 1, appears set to return for Tennessee. Linebacker Jayon Brown also looks like he’ll be back from a shoulder issue, while fellow LB Rashaan Evans and CB Adoree Jackson are expected to get past foot injuries and suit up. Key Titans corner Logan Ryan was ill this week but is also expected to be fine.

The Titans already became the first No. 6 seed to win a playoff game since 2010 this postseason and are hoping to become the third bottom-seed to reach the Super Bowl since the current format came into play, joining the ’06 Steelers and ’10 Packers. Tennessee will be looking to become the fifth team ever to win three consecutive road games and play for it all. Weather in Kansas City is expected to be frigid, with temperatures dropping to seven degrees on Sunday night. For this afternoon game, the high is likely to be in the 20s, but winds won’t be too much of a factor according to AccuWeather, which expects gusts to top out at a rather mild 10-15 miles per hour. Mahomes and the Chiefs will certainly like that.
Reply With Quote
  #21  
Old 01-19-2020, 01:18 PM
sailfish sailfish is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Northern California
Posts: 226,353
Rewards: 247,194
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1638
Likes (Received): 19788
Default
Packers at 49ers Preview
Kevin Rogers

Packers at 49ers – 6:40 PM EST - FOX
Betting Odds: San Francisco -7 , Total 46

The top two teams remaining in the NFC square off for a spot in Super Bowl LIV in Miami on February 2. The 49ers and Packers own a rich playoff history that saw the two legendary franchises hook up seven times since 1995 in the postseason, including in four consecutive seasons from 1995 through 1998. Although Green Bay knocked San Francisco out of the playoffs in three of those four opportunities, the 49ers eliminated the Packers in 2012 and 2013.

San Francisco (14-3 SU, 10-6-1 ATS) closed the regular season with a crucial road victory at rival Seattle to secure not only a first-round bye, but home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. The 49ers didn’t let that opportunity slip through their fingers in a dominating 27-10 rout of the Vikings in the divisional playoff round to easily cover as seven-point favorites. San Francisco ended an 0-6-1 ATS run as a favorite of six points or more, although the 49ers posted a 5-2 record in those contests.

The imposing 49ers’ defense limited the Vikings to seven first downs, one week after Minnesota recorded 22 first downs in an overtime upset of New Orleans. Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo didn’t dominate in his playoff debut, but he led the 49ers on a pair of first half touchdown drives, while throwing for 131 yards on 11-of-19 passing. The Niners’ ground attack ate up the Vikings’ defense for 186 yards on 47 carries, paced by 105 yards and two touchdowns from running back Tevin Coleman.

The Packers (13-3 SU, 10-6 ATS) finished off their home slate at 8-1 this season by holding off the Seahawks, 28-23 in the divisional round. Green Bay was cruising as 4 -point favorites by building a commanding 28-10 advantage heading into the final minute of the third quarter. Seattle scored a pair of touchdowns to creep within five points, but Green Bay backers breathed a sigh of relief when Seahawks’ quarterback Russell Wilson was sacked on a two-point conversion to avoid Seattle trimming the deficit to three points.

The Seahawks actually outgained the Packers by 31 yards, but Aaron Rodgers led Green Bay to its third divisional playoff win since 2014 by throwing for 243 yards and connecting on two touchdowns with Davante Adams. Green Bay picked up its sixth consecutive victory since getting wiped out San Francisco (more on that in a moment), but only two of those wins came against playoff teams (Minnesota the other in Week 16). The Packers closed out the lights on Lambeau Field this season by covering six of nine home games, compared to a 5-3 ATS road mark.

Green Bay covered in three of four opportunities as a road underdog this season, including victories at Chicago, Dallas, and Minnesota. The lone setback came at Levi’s Stadium in Week 12 against the 49ers in a 37-8 rout as three-point underdogs. Green Bay was making its second trip to the west coast in three weeks after posting only 11 points in a 26-11 defeat to the Chargers in Week 9. The offense didn’t travel once again to the Golden State as the Packers trailed at halftime, 23-0, while the only Green Bay touchdown came late in the third quarter from Rodgers to Adams.

From a totals perspective, the NFC Championship games from 2014 through 2016 all saw contests finish with 50 combined points or more and eclipse the ‘over.’ The 2017 NFC title affair hit the ‘over’ of 39 when the Eagles routed the Vikings, 38-7, but the ‘over’ streak ended last season with the controversial finish between the Rams and Saints that remained ‘under’ the total of 56. VI totals expert Chris David provides plenty of analysis on the total of the NFC Championship right here.

The Packers are seeking their first Super Bowl appearance since 2010 when they beat the Bears on the road in the NFC Championship. Green Bay has since lost twice in the conference title game at Seattle in overtime in 2014 and at Atlanta in 2016, while the Packers are 1-4 in their past five road playoff games. The 49ers last reached the Super Bowl in 2012 after edging the Falcons in the NFC Championship before falling to the Ravens. Since winning their last Super Bowl in 1994 (in Miami), the 49ers own a 1-3 record in the conference title game, which includes a home overtime setback to the Giants in 2011.

NFL expert Joe Nelson provides insight on how Green Bay couldn’t convert when it counted in the earlier loss to San Francisco, “The Packers wound up 1-15 in third downs and 1-3 on fourth downs while Rodgers was sacked five times while under consistent duress in the first meeting. Those third down results present a great contrast to last week’s win over Seattle when the Packers had nine third down conversions in 14 tries, including two huge late conversions to seal the game and keep the ball away from Wilson. Green Bay was out-gained on the season and didn’t fit the statistical profile of a 13-3 team, but ultimately sits just one win away from returning to the Super Bowl.”

Both Rodgers and Garoppolo will be focal points on Sunday, but Nelson notes that the ground game can be the key to victory, “Neither team was very effective stopping the run this season ranking outside the league’s top 20 in run defense on a per carry basis and the ground game likely will be the key in this contest. San Francisco’s offensive numbers were much stronger on the ground, third in the league in rushing yards per game but less successful on a per carry basis.”
Reply With Quote
  #22  
Old 01-19-2020, 01:19 PM
sailfish sailfish is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Northern California
Posts: 226,353
Rewards: 247,194
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1638
Likes (Received): 19788
Sunday's Best Bets - Sides
Matt Blunt

NFC Championship
Green Bay at San Francisco (-7.5)

Green Bay fits a lot of things I like to see for a playoff game of this magnitude, and they might not be the things that everyone prefers to see when it comes down to it. Getting smoked by the 49ers in the regular season game should actually be viewed as a positive for the Packers in my view, as there is really nothing more motivating then getting another crack at a guy/team that absolutely spanked you the last time you played. Competitiveness is a funny beast, and for guys that make it to the pros in any sport, the desire to beat teams that beat up on you bad is always going to be high.

Furthermore, the fact that the Packers got smoked in that regular season game also suggests that they've got to change everything in their approach for this rematch. That works in their favor in the sense that the 49ers can't have a great idea of what to expect from Green Bay, and if the Packers execute, they will be well on their way.

Oh and there is this: the last four NFC Championship games that were non-division rematches from the same season have all seen the team that failed to cover ATS in the regular season – Green Bay in this case – come back and cover the number in the Conference Championship game; going 2-2 SU in the process. The Rams were the most recent team to fit this profile last year when they controversially got by New Orleans after losing SU and ATS to the Saints (45-35) in the regular season.

But oddly enough, the other three occurrences all included either the Packers or 49ers, with each side being on the wrong end of this equation. In the 2016 title game between the Packers and Falcons, Green Bay got blasted by Atlanta after covering the number in a 1-point regular season defeat. Back in 2011, the 49ers beat the Giants SU and ATS in the regular season, and then coughed up things to New York in the title game. The other occurrence was the only the Seattle/Green Bay title game where the Packers got the ATS win in their OT loss, after getting blasted by 20 in the regular season meeting. That latter scenario sounds awfully similar to this week's game doesn't it?

Aside from that history, the fact that Aaron Rodgers and the Packers have fallen short in this game twice over the past six years is another motivating piece of data for Rodgers and company to overcome. Green Bay's QB was even quoted earlier this year about being on the “back 9” of his career, and to have another NFC Championship loss on his resume would surely eat at him, and potentially change the conversation about his career. Those are never great reasons to land on a particular side, but in this case, and this big number, I do think they've at least got to be acknowledged.

Schematically, Green Bay knows they've got to change basically everything from that first meeting and it starts with the blocking up front. If the Packers O-line can give Rodgers adequate protection back there, and Green Bay's running game can help neutralize that pass rush, the Packers will be cooking with gas this time around.

The 49ers defense may be healthier now, but they are still a unit that got lit up pretty good down the stretch this season, and if they aren't getting home with that pass rush, guys have been picking them apart. Rodgers is cerebral in that part of his game, and it's what I expect to see plenty of this week.

Finally, “experience” is often overused and nearly impossible to quantify, but when there is a lack of it, it's easy to point out and there has to be concerns. That's the situation this young 49ers team is in, as Jimmy G and company are all getting their first significant taste of playoff football (as starters), and that can bring plenty of nervousness as well. Should an early drive or two stall with a FG opportunity or three-and-out(s), and the 49ers find themselves far from being in rhythm, things can snowball very quickly for favorites at this stage of the year; I mean, just look at the Ravens a week ago. And like Tennessee in that game last week, the more time you allow the underdog to play from in front, the more confidence that underdog will gain.

Without question the 49ers have built a highly sustainable, and highly talented young core with this roster, but in the big five-year picture of this franchise, I've got a feeling we will be looking back at this NFC Championship game as one that was a big time, and needed learning experience for the 49ers. You've seemingly got to suffer heartbreak in this league before you can reach the mountain top, and a loss this week before going on to bigger things in the years to come for San Francisco is a very likely five-year result for this organization in my view.

This game will be the one where that young, prolific, team runs into the crafty old veteran who wants one more kick at the can in terms of chasing down a title. We saw this play out with the Pats/Chiefs AFC title game a year ago, and a year later, I believe we get the identical result. The road team going out and winning the game outright as an underdog to give their future HOF QB another crack at lifting a Lombardi Trophy.

Best Bet: Green Bay +7.5
Reply With Quote
  #23  
Old 01-19-2020, 01:20 PM
sailfish sailfish is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Northern California
Posts: 226,353
Rewards: 247,194
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1638
Likes (Received): 19788
Sunday's Best Bets - Totals
Matt Blunt

AFC Championship
Tennessee at Kansas City

As touched on by colleagues in this piece from earlier in the week, the total for the AFC Championship game has seen plenty of support for the 'over' already, pushing an opener of 51/51.5 up to it's current range. After what we saw from the Chiefs offense a week ago in putting up 50+, and the fact that these two teams already met earlier this year and that game saw 67 total points put up, you can easily see where those 'over' sentiments find their support. Yet, I can only look at the 'under' here for a variety of reasons. The first of which, coincides with the belief that it will be the Kansas City Chiefs who do end up advancing from this contest.

Although I couldn't have been more wrong last week in backing the 'under', conceptually, the history that Andy Reid's teams find playoff success in games that cash 'under' tickets still is applicable. Last week there was a lot of uncommon stuff that happened to put the Chiefs in a big hole early, and from the point KC found themselves down multiple scores, they had no choice but to turn up the tempo and aim to put up 40+ to win comfortably as they did. I wouldn't bank on fumbled and blocked kicks to turn up against the Chiefs again this week, so there likely won't be a need to be forced into that type of game as it is.

Furthermore, Tennessee and their style of offense isn't interested in playing those high-scoring games in general. The Titans preference to run the ball and then run it some more in the 2nd half already lends itself to 'unders', evident by their 0-2 O/U record in these playoffs so far. But the problem with that lies in the idea that Tennessee has to figure that they are more likely going to need to put up plenty of points to win the game against this opponent.

So, going low on this total is not particularly something I'd advocate if you do like the Titans on the spread or outright, as the last team to make a Super Bowl after going 'under' the total in all of their playoff games leading up to the Super Bowl was the 2015 Denver Broncos and the 2019 Titans are a much different squad. Sure, both liked to rely on the running game and strong defense, but Denver got to ride that style of play at home that year, a benefit Tennessee doesn't have.

However, as I said at the top, I am of the mindset that Kansas City rectifies the wrongs from this game last year and does indeed find a way to win the game – at least straight up. Which brings me back to Reid's great run of 'unders' in playoff wins over the past 10+ years. It may not have worked last week at all, but it's still now 5-1 to the 'under' in Reid's last six playoff wins dating back to the 2006 season, and with a Super Bowl berth on the line, and less rust/sloppiness to worry about early like we saw from the Chiefs last week, I do expect KC's defense to be at their best from the outset.

Remember, after falling behind 21-0 quickly to Houston, that KC defense managed to hold down a very explosive Houston attack to just 10 points the rest of the way, when the Chiefs had to get those stops to climb back into the game. Many in the market may have questioned how good the Chiefs defense was down the stretch given some questionable competition, but they've been balling out for multiple months now.

And as I said last week, when the reality and perception of a given unit on a football team (in this case, KC's defense) is in a transitional phase in the market, those are precisely the spots where you can find plenty of value going against the grain. This total climbed out of the gate with the usual Monday morning knee-jerk reaction from the market, and as Sunday gets closer, recreational bettors will look to last week's 50-point outburst by KC, and/or the 68 points first meeting between the Titans and Chiefs and follow suit with the 'over' play.

I'm expecting that conceptually I was nowhere near as wrong last week's final score suggested, as Andy Reid's playoff history of 'unders' in wins and how good the Chiefs defense actually is relative to what is perceived suffered nothing but a setback. I've got another shot at being correct in that arena again this week, and hopefully there aren't many fluky things early to completely throw off the expected trajectory of this game. It's not like I haven't fallen victim to being a week/game early with my approach in the past, and hopefully that's all it was with KC last week, as the Chiefs earn another Super Bowl berth on the back of a strong defensive performance for the full 60 minutes.

Finally, one more stat to pound this point home. The last seven teams to score 40 or more points in a Divisional round win (New England last year, Jacksonville in 2017, New England in 2013, New England in 2012, San Francisco in 2012, New England in 2011, and Green Bay in 2010), ended up with a 2-5 O/U record in the Conference Championship game with an average of 46.4 total points scored. That's nearly a full TD lower then the current price now, and that's too hard for me to pass up.

Best Bet: Under 53
Reply With Quote
Reply

Tags
1/19/2020, day, good, great, luck

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are Off
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 01:53 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, vBulletin Solutions Inc.
Resources saved on this page: MySQL 15.79% Host: cappersmallweb1