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Old 11-13-2019, 10:51 AM
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foot Thursday 11/14/2019 NFL Betting Info

Good Luck and Have A Great Day
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Old 11-14-2019, 09:37 AM
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309PITTSBURGH -310 CLEVELAND
PITTSBURGH is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) as a dog in the last 2 seasons.
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Old 11-14-2019, 09:37 AM
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NFL
Long Sheet

Week 11

Thursday, November 14

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PITTSBURGH (5 - 4) at CLEVELAND (3 - 6) - 11/14/2019, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 13-28 ATS (-17.8 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
CLEVELAND is 15-31 ATS (-19.1 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 3-1 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 3-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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Old 11-14-2019, 09:38 AM
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NFL

Week 11

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
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Thursday, November 14

Cleveland Browns
Cleveland is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Cleveland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Cleveland is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Cleveland is 7-17-1 SU in its last 25 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Cleveland's last 25 games at home
Cleveland is 0-4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
Cleveland is 1-4-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Pittsburgh is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games
Pittsburgh is 17-7-1 SU in its last 25 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Pittsburgh's last 9 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
Pittsburgh is 7-0-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing Cleveland
Pittsburgh is 14-3-1 SU in its last 18 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
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Old 11-14-2019, 09:38 AM
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Steelers (5-4) @ Browns (3-6)— Since Week 2, Steelers have 25 takeaways in eight games, with a +12 turnover margin. Pitt won its last four games after a 1-4 start; they’e 1-2 SU on road, losing to NE/SF, teams with best record in league. Steelers covered seven of last eight games as a road underdog (2-1 TY)- five of their last seven games went under. Cleveland snapped a 4-game skid when they nipped Buffalo 19-16 LW; they’ve lost three of four home games, are 5-11-1 ATS in last 17 games as a home favorite, 0-2-1 TY. Browns converted only 17 of last 57 third down plays. Pitt is 7-0-1 in last eight series games, with 3 of last 4 series wins by 4 or fewer points. Steelers are 3-0-1 in last four visits here; teams tied 21-all LY.
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Old 11-14-2019, 09:38 AM
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NFL
Dunkel

Week 11


Thursday, November 14

Pittsburgh @ Cleveland

Game 309-310
November 14, 2019 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
130.127
Cleveland
135.150
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cleveland
by 5
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cleveland
by 2 1/2
40
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland
(-2 1/2); Over
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Old 11-14-2019, 09:39 AM
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Tech Trends - Week 11
Bruce Marshall

Thursday, Nov. 14

PITTSBURGH at CLEVELAND (FOX, 8:20 p.m. ET)
Steel on 6-1 spread run last six TY. Browns no covers four of last five and 2-6-1 vs. line TY. If Steelers a dog note 8-1 spread mark since LY in role. Browns 3-1-1 vs. line last five meetings, four of last five “over” as well.
Tech Edge: Steelers and slight to “over,” based on recent and “totals” trends.
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Old 11-14-2019, 09:39 AM
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NFL Betting Stats heading into Week 11:

Road Teams: 81-64-3 ATS
Home Teams: 64-81-3 ATS

Favorites: 60-85-3 ATS
Underdogs: 85-60-3 ATS

Home Faves: 37-58-3 ATS
Home Dogs: 27-23 ATS

Road Faves: 23-27 ATS
Road Dogs: 58-37-3 ATS

O/U: 72-76
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  #9  
Old 11-14-2019, 09:39 AM
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TNF - Steelers at Browns
Kevin Rogers

LAST WEEK

Following an 0-3 start and a season that looked like it was going nowhere, the Steelers (5-4 SU, 6-3 ATS) have fought back to get back into the AFC Wild Card race. Pittsburgh is doing all of this after getting rid of Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown in the offseason, while franchise cornerstone Ben Roethlisberger sustained a season-ending elbow injury in Week 2. The Steelers finished off a three-game homestand a perfect 3-0 with an impressive underdog win over the defending NFC champions Rams, 17-12.

Not only did Pittsburgh cash outright as four-point underdogs, but the Steelers limited their fourth opponent in the last six games to 17 points or fewer. The 17 points the Steelers scored last Sunday were their fewest since the Week 1 blowout loss to New England, but quarterback Mason Rudolph connected with former Oklahoma State teammate James Washington on a three-yard score late in the first quarter. The go-ahead touchdown came from September acquisition Minkah Fitzpatrick, as the ex-Dolphins’ safety recovered a Jared Goff fumble and returned it for a score to help Pittsburgh win its fourth home game of the season.

The expectations in Cleveland were sky-high at least for the Browns (3-6 SU, 2-6-1 ATS) when the season began as being the 2019 AFC North champions. The Browns have a long way to go to catch the division-leading Ravens and are on the outside of the Wild Card race following a 2-6 start, but Cleveland ended its four-game skid in a not-so-pretty 19-16 home victory over Buffalo on Sunday. Cleveland pushed as three-point favorites, but the Browns finally picked up their first win at FirstEnergy Stadium since Week 16 of 2018 against Cincinnati.

In spite of getting stopped six times (SIX TIMES!) from the two-yard line on one drive in the first half, the Browns rallied from a 16-12 deficit thanks to a Baker Mayfield touchdown strike to Rashard Higgins with under two minutes remaining. It was the only catch of the day for Higgins, a fifth round pick out of Colorado State in 2016, but it marked the first time this season Mayfield threw multiple touchdown passes in a game. Running back Nick Chubb eclipsed the 100-yard mark for the third time in four weeks with 116 yards, while Kareem Hunt posted 30 rushing yards in his Cleveland debut following an eight-game suspension.

DOG DAYS

The Steelers head into the Dawg Pound as one of the better underdog teams in the NFL by owning a 4-1 ATS mark when receiving points this season. Rewinding back to the start of the 2018 campaign, Mike Tomlin’s squad has put together an impressive 10-1 ATS record in the ‘dog role, including six outright wins. Pittsburgh hasn’t hit the highway in over a month as the Steelers tripped up the Chargers with third-string quarterback Devlin Hodges, 24-17 as six-point ‘dogs in Week 6.

UNDER THE LIGHTS

Amazingly, the Steelers are on in primetime for the fifth time this season and have won in the past three appearances. Dating back to 2016, Pittsburgh has posted a 6-1 record in its last seven road primetime contests with the only defeat coming at New England in Week 1 this season on a Sunday night. Cleveland is making its fourth appearance in primetime this season as the Browns routed the Jets in Week 2 before losing to the Rams and 49ers as an underdog.

TAKE THE THURSDAY NIGHT POINTS AND RUN

Underdogs through the first 10 Thursday night contests this season own a magnificent 8-2 ATS mark, capped off by the Raiders (+1 ) edging the Chargers last week, 26-24. Amazingly, not one single-digit home favorite on Thursday night has covered the spread (0-4 ATS), as the last home chalk to cash on a Thursday was the Patriots back in Week 6 against the Giants as 17-point favorites in a 35-14 blowout.

SERIES HISTORY

The Browns last defeated the Steelers in Week 6 of the 2014 season, 31-10 as 2 -point home favorites. Pittsburgh has put together a 7-0-1 record the last eight matchups with Cleveland, as the two AFC North rivals finished in a 21-21 tie in the 2018 season opener. The Browns rallied from a 21-7 fourth quarter deficit to force overtime, but neither team could take the final lead in the extra 10 minutes, as Cleveland cashed in the role of a home underdog.

Tyrod Taylor started the opener against Pittsburgh, but Mayfield faced the Steelers the second time around at Heinz Field in Week 8 as the Steelers routed the Browns, 33-18 as 8 -point favorites. Steelers’ running back James Conner ran all over the Browns in both meetings, which included a 135-yard effort at Cleveland and 146 yards in the home matchup, while finding the end zone twice in each game.

TOTAL TALK

The Steelers have watched the ‘under’ go 6-3 this season and that includes a 3-0 mark on the road. Cleveland has slightly leaned to the low side this season, producing a 5-4 mark through nine games. As of Wednesday, the total on this game is hovering between 40 and 41 points at most betting shops.

Chris David offered up his thoughts on the total for this primetime matchup and bettors should be aware that the ‘over’ has now cashed in the last six games played in that nationally televised spots under the lights.

He said, “This isn’t an easy total to handicap and you could certainly argue both ways. For starters, this series has watched the ‘over’ go 4-2 over the last three seasons and that includes a run of three straight tickets to the high side. The one consistent factor during this run has been Pittsburgh, who averaged 25.6 PPG. With that being said, this isn’t the same the Steelers offense that we’re used to and you could toss out the aforementioned numbers.”

“From a current form standpoint, neither team has been a juggernaut this season. The Steelers have been held under 300 yards of total offense in four of their last five games and the one outlier was against the Dolphins. Meanwhile, the Browns have averaged 343 YPG in their last three games but the offense has only mustered up 17 PPG. Cleveland is one of four teams in the league that has more field goals (16) than touchdowns (13) and all of those clubs boast a losing record,” added David.

David noted in last week’s Total Talk segment how divisional games produced a 19-10 (66%) record through the first six weeks of the season but the pendulum was swinging back. In the last four weeks, the ‘over’ has gone 10-5 in these games and that includes a 3-2 record in Week 10.

Despite the uptick in ‘over’ bets, he isn’t buying the high side in this divisional matchup. He explained, “While it wouldn’t be my strongest lean, it’s hard not to play the ‘under’ in this game especially if the Steelers don’t have Conner available. Both teams are ranked in the bottom third in offensive efficiency and the Steelers have created plenty of turnovers, it’s impossible to handicap those. I believe we’ll see a tight game, something in the neighborhood of 20-17.”

HANDICAPPER’S CORNER

NFL expert Joe Nelson points out that in spite of Cleveland’s disappointing start, there is still light at the end of the tunnel, “The remaining schedule is relatively promising with two games with the Steelers in the next three weeks plus two games with the Bengals and games with the Dolphins and Cardinals. Baltimore remains in Week 16 at home, but a strong finish to get to 9-7 and a possible Wild Card spot isn’t impossible as the stakes are high this week after the Browns finally finished off a close game for a win last week.”

The quarterback matchup pits a pair of players who shined in the Big 12, but Nelson notes things have changed for Mayfield and Rudolph on this level, “Only Sam Darnold has a worse QB Rating than Mayfield among qualified starters this season but he actually has a slightly higher QBR than Rudolph. The quarterbacks faced off in the Big 12 as rivals with Mayfield’s Oklahoma team winning all three meetings vs. Rudolph and Oklahoma State. The 2017 meeting was a shootout with Oklahoma winning 62-52 in Stillwater, but they now lead two of the lower scoring teams in the NFL with the Steelers averaging 21.4 points per game and the Browns 26th in the league at 19.0 points per game.”

PLAYER PROPS – According to Westgate Superbook

Total Completions – Mason Rudolph (PIT)
Over 20 (-110)
Under 20 (-110)

Total Touchdown Passes – Mason Rudolph (PIT)
Over 1 (+140)
Under 1 (-160)

Total Receiving Yards – Juju Smith-Schuster (PIT)
Over 54 (-110)
Under 54 (-110)

Total Gross Passing Yards – Baker Mayfield (CLE)
Over 245 (-110)
Under 245 (-110)

Total Rushing Yards – Nick Chubb (CLE)
Over 85 (-110)
Under 85 (-110)

Total Receiving Yards – Odell Beckham, Jr. (CLE)
Over 70 (-110)
Under 70 (-110)

LINE MOVEMENT

There hasn’t been much movement in terms of the side on this game, which opened with Cleveland at -2 (-120) at Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas. The Westgate pushed the Browns up to -3 (EVEN), while other books have remained with the Browns at -2 (-120).
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  #10  
Old 11-14-2019, 09:40 AM
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Betting Recap - Week 10
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

National Football League Week 10 Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 5-7
Against the Spread 3-8-1

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 9-3
Against the Spread 7-4-1

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 7-5

National Football League Year-to-Date Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 89-54-1
Against the Spread 60-81-3

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 77-66-1
Against the Spread 62-79-3

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 72-71-1

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Falcons (+13.5, ML +600) at Saints, 26-9
Dolphins (+11, ML +450) at Colts, 16-12
Titans (+5.5, ML +220) vs. Chiefs, 35-32
Steelers (+4.5, ML +180) vs. Rams, 17-12
Jets (+3, ML +130) vs. Giants, 34-27
Vikings (+3, ML +160) at Cowboys, 28-24

The largest favorite to cover
Bills (-10.5) vs. Redskins, 24-9
Cowboys (-6.5) at Giants, 37-18
Eagles (-5) vs. Bears, 22-14
Seahawks (-4) vs. Buccaneers, 40-34 (OT)
Panthers (-3.5) vs. Titans, 30-20

Double-Digit 'Dogs BITE!

-- The Atlanta Falcons (+13.5, ML +600) stunned the New Orleans Saints in NOLA on Sunday during the 1:00 p.m. ET window, while the Miami Dolphins (+11, ML +450)...(hey, weren't they supposed to be tanking?)...shocked the Lucas Oil Stadium faithful with a 16-12 win against the Indianapolis Colts. It actually hasn't been that long since two double-digit underdogs won outright on the same day in the NFL, as the Dolphins and Giants accomplished the feat Oct. 15, 2017.

The Dolphiins had a little luck, as QB Jacoby Brissett was inactive due to a knee injury, but it's not like QB Brian Hoyer was some rookie nobody who hasn't played before. He tossed three touchdowns last week against a good Steelers defense. The 'Fins just came to play, and have won two in a row, as all of a sudden they look like an NFL-caliber team under head coach Brian Flores, who is putting his stamp on the team. After going 0-4 ATS in the first four games, the Dolphins now have a winning record against the spread, covering each of the past five outings.

The loss by the Saints might have been even more surprising, as QB Drew Brees looked good in his return last time out before the bye. Both of these teams had two weeks to prepare for each other, and head coach Dan Quinn likely bought himself more time as the head coach with the eye-popping win. The Falcons defense had shown no signs of an effective pass rush, or an ability to stop the pass, but they held the Saints to single digits in the points department. And that's why they play the games.

Total Recall

-- The two highest totals on the board were the Arizona Cardinals-Tampa Bay Buccaneers (51.5) and Atlanta Falcons-New Orleans Saints (51.5). It was a mixed bag. The Cards-Bucs game was on a good pace from the start, and helped in large part due to a 20-point second quarter, with 10 points for each team. It wasn't a slam-dunk 'over', but a go-ahead touchdown by the Bucs with 1:43 clinched the winning ticket.

As far as the Falcons-Saints game was concerned, it got off to a slow start and never really threatened to go over. The teams exchanged field goals in the first quarter. Atlanta had two touchdowns in this game, but inexplicably, the Saints had none. Hey, sometimes it's better to lose one like this than by a half-point or on a bad beat.

There were three games -- the Los Angeles Chargers-Oakland Raiders, Kansas City Chiefs-Tennessee Titans and Carolina Panthers-Green Bay Packers -- which closed at 49. The Chargers-Raiders game ended up going over by a single point, and it was a bit of a bad beat. There were 37 points on the board until the Chargers scored the go-ahead touchdown with 4:02 to go, taking a 24-20 lead. The Raiders charged back and posted the game-winning touchdown with 1:02 to go.

For the Chiefs-Titans game, it was looking like a close shave at halftime, with a total of 26 on the board, tied 13-13. The teams combined for 16 points in the third quarter, and 25 points in an explosive fourth, as the this game finished as the highest-scoring game on the board. The other game, the Panthers-Packers game, was a close call. The snow picked up in the second half, but it didn't seem to affect the sides too much. Head coach Ron Rivera did go with the 'analytics', going for two down 24-16, eschewing the extra point. While there is debate, especially in the Twitterverse, on whether it was the right call, it definitely wasn't helpful to the over. They needed a touchdown and two-point conversion after it failed. However, had the gamble worked, they would have needed a touchdown and then just the point after for a push. Of course, none of that came into fruition.

The 'over' hit the first two primetime games of Week 10, coming on the heels of a three-game primetime 'over' sweep in Week 9. The Monday Night Football contest between the Seattle Seahawks-San Francisco 49ers (47.5) is still pending. The 'over' is just 11-19 (36.7%) during the 2019 primetime schedule, a stark change from previous seasons when the games under the lights were high-scoring affairs. The 'under' was a perfect 8-0 for Sunday Night Football this season, but the New England Patriots-Baltimore Ravens (44.5) game went over in the SNF game for the second consecutive weekend.

Officially, the 'over' finished 26-25 (51.0%) in 51 games under the lights.

In 2017, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the 'over' finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2014, the 'over' went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the 'over' was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.
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  #11  
Old 11-14-2019, 09:40 AM
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The Steelers and Browns meet each other Thursday night on the shores of Lake Erie. It still isn't quite the rivalry it was in the past. It's now or never for the Browns. They won in Week 10 against the Bills, and they could get right back into the AFC wild card picture with a win, while dealing their rivals from the Steel City a tough blow with a win. The Steelers are 4-0-1 ATS in the past five appearances on Thursday, and they're 4-0-1 ATS in the past five against divisional foes. The Browns are 5-21-2 ATS in the past 28 against winning teams, and 9-23-1 ATS in the past 33 at home. However, they are 6-2 ATS in the past eight inside the division and 6-2 ATS in the past eight appearances on a Thursday.
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Old 11-14-2019, 09:41 AM
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Hot & Not Report - Week 11
Matt Blunt

Week of November 11th

Last week's piece proved to be right on the money for nearly everything, as post-London teams remained winless ATS this year with both the Bengals and Rams losing SU and ATS, as the two games split the over/under as well. That makes it 5-1 O/U this year for teams post-London trip, and 0-6 ATS for them in that same role, with the Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars being the last two teams to fill that particular role.

Week 11 sees Houston on the road to face the same scorching hot Baltimore team that did force Bengals fans to the hard liquor early as I expected, while Jacksonville's also out on the road in visiting a Colts team who can't be thrilled that they just lost to the Dolphins of all teams. Those same post-London numbers would suggest plays on Baltimore and 'over' and Indianapolis and 'over' so keep that in mind as you work through the Week 11 board.

With those potential 'play on' spots already in our back pocket for Week 11, there are a couple other specific scenarios applicable to Week 11's contests that should be brought to light.

Whether you want to fade them, follow them, or pass on the game all together is up to you, but hopefully these angles can be informative nonetheless.

Who's Hot

NFL Teams that score 9 points or less (since Week 6) are on a 7-2 ATS run the following week; 12-10 ATS on the year

Chalk up this run as a positive for those that are of the mindset that teams are able to bounce back after a bad performance. So often we talk about what a certain team did in their last game, that those results become way more influential the following week then they need to be by far. You see a team get smoked one week and it's just easy to assume that will continue, rather then stepping back and looking at the much larger picture.

And in today's edge of NFL being an “Any given Sunday” type league where anybody can win against anyone, it seems to be that teams that don't find a way to get it going offensively, have had minimal issues in bouncing back strong as of late.

A game of scoring 9 or fewer points almost always chalks up to a loss – unless you are San Francisco beating up on Washington in extreme bad weather – and nobody in the NFL likes to string losing weeks together. Losing a game when you get beat is one thing, but when teams beat themselves with poor execution and don't even give themselves a chance to win games is where the motivational angle the following week can hold more weight. And given the run for these teams that don't execute on offense – for whatever reason – the following week against the number, they are sides you should be seriously interested in.

For Week 11 we actually get three teams alive in this scenario (pending the MNF result), as both the Jacksonville Jaguars and Washington Redskins are live in this situation coming off a bye. Those two teams are added by New Orleans in this spot, after the Saints dismal showing as a heavy home favorite vs Atlanta yesterday.

Jacksonville's ATS situation becomes more convoluted with this being a 'play on' spot for them, while the post-London situation would suggest a fade. Again another reason to just use trends and runs like this as a mere part of the entire handicapping process, because the Colts – Jacksonville's Week 11 opponent – are in a nice potential bounce back spot themselves after losing to Miami. But Indy's QB situation is still a concern, and it never hurts to pass on a game if there are too many conflicts in the information you find that you believe is important to future success.

Washington's been a regular in this scenario all year as they've scored 9 points or less four times now in 2019. The previous three times saw the Redskins go 1-2 ATS the next time out, so they've actually been a loser in a trend that's overall got a winning record this year. At home against the Jets, and off a bye week, the spots don't get much better then that for Washington.

And then you've got the Saints who go out to visit Tampa Bay next week in a game where the Saints offense should get “right” again against a Buccaneers defense that gives up points to everyone. That's another division game in this spot (Jax/Indy) being the other, and it's probably one that 'over' bettors should get on sooner rather then later.

I say that because, what's interesting about these teams coming off a lackluster offensive performance of 9 or fewer points, is that they have been bouncing back in big ways the following week; if they've got somewhat of a respectable offense.

During this 7-2 ATS run these teams are on, they've averaged putting up 23.22 points the following week. That number includes two Washington games of scoring 9 points on both occasions, and the Jets (15 points) and Broncos (13 points) not exactly pulling their weight either.

There aren't too many in the NFL market that would say those teams have 'respectable' offenses right now, but the Saints and arguably the Jaguars – now that QB Nick Foles is back – would be at worst in consideration for teams in that discussion. And it might be best to keep that Saints selection on your mind because...

Who's Not

Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, and the NY Jets are a perfect 0-6 ATS this year when coming off a SU win

By definition, bad teams become bad teams because they can't string together consecutive wins when you boil it right down. It doesn't matter if you lose every game by 30+ or by a game-winning FG missing/getting blocked every time, 10 weeks into the year, a team's win/loss record tends to tell most of the story. And those four teams listed in the title, are all what I would call “bad” teams this year, and wouldn't you know it, all four of them go into Week 11 off outright wins.

I'll start with Tampa Bay, as they are the ones hosting the aforementioned New Orleans Saints this week in a game that fits both of these scenarios. Tampa has been a money-burning team for over a month now, as a 0-5 ATS run the past five has been rough. The Bucs would take respected money for weeks only to come up short in one-possession games in a variety of ways. I got caught backing them this week in a game I expected them to win by more then they did vs Arizona, but it's going to be tough to get on board with them this week.

Not only are the Buccaneers 0-2 ATS off a SU win this year, they are already 0-1 ATS in that spot when it's the Saints sharing a field with them. New Orleans won the first meeting 31-24 after the Bucs upset the Rams out in LA a week earlier, and with the Saints looking for redemption after laying an egg vs Atlanta, it looks like this is a Saints ATS spot or nothing.

Fading the New York Jets this week would follow a similar thought process in that their opponent – Washington – found there way into the “Hot” part of this piece as well. That's two bad teams going up against one another though, and those games can bring a lot of extra headaches in general. But like the game above, it would be Washington or nothing for me there.

Cleveland is at home on TNF to face a suddenly surging Steelers team that believes they are still able to catch Baltimore in the AFC North, and I'm just not so sure it happens. The fact that Cleveland still shot themselves in the foot far too often in scratching out a win against the Bills – the Browns went into “force feed Odell Beckham mode” and it ruined the entire flow of the offense – is still highly concerning. If the Browns are going to try and continue to build towards living up to all the preseason hype that they themselves created, winning this game on TNF is a must, and it's a cause for pause on fading the Browns this week. They still are Cleveland though, and are still just 3-6 SU, and like I said, 10 weeks in, a team's record tells most of the story.

Finally we get a fade of the Atlanta Falcons in this spot, and this is one where it makes a lot of sense. Atlanta is coming off a convincing win as double digit underdogs, and back on the road for their second straight road division game. They are catching less than a TD against a Panthers team that struggled in the cold yesterday, but probably won't get caught overlooking the Falcons in a similar manner to what we saw from New Orleans on Sunday.

Atlanta's win over the Saints is likely going to push some towards taking the points there as a reactionary measure to last week's results. But the Panthers have won their last two games by at least 10 points when they are coming off a SU loss themselves this season, and after this Atlanta defense played well over their heads in holding the Saints down on Sunday, chances are that Falcons unit regresses hard to the defense that allows 28.8 points per game on the year still (28th in NFL).

I doubt these 'bad' teams stay winless ATS off a win the rest of the year, but fading all four of them this week should at worst prove to be a break-even proposition. Obviously some appear to be better fades then others (Tampa Bay, Atlanta), but too much information and reasoning behind a specific play isn't always the worst thing in the world.
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Old 11-14-2019, 09:41 AM
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Bet Now/Bet Later NFL Week 11 odds: Now's the time to make this Chiefs-Chargers bet
Jason Logan

It looks like the field at Estadio Azteca will pass code this time, but the altitude in Mexico City (which sits 7,350 feet above sea level – more than 2,000 feet higher than Denver) will play a role Monday night.

Being a successful sports bettor is not about betting on the best team but betting the best number.

Scoring the optimal odds for your wager can sometimes be a race to the window – or your mobile – to get the spread or total you want before it changes. Or, sometimes it’s a waiting game until just before kickoff, projecting how the public players will manipulate the numbers.

Senior Industry Analyst Jason Logan gives you a heads-up on the best “Bet Now/Bet Later” games on the NFL Week 11 board, so download the new Covers Live App and punch these odds into your line alerts.

SPREAD TO BET NOW: CHICAGO BEARS AT LOS ANGELES RAMS (-6.5, 41)

This line has flirted with a touchdown since opening. Some books hung Rams -7 out of the gate and that got bet down to -6.5 while others are clinging to that spread and hiking the juice on Los Angeles.

If you like the Rams to rebound from a Week 10 loss at Pittsburgh and perform better back in L.A. on Sunday Night Football, get this spread below the touchdown now.

According to our Covers Consensus, 67 percent of wagers are riding on Los Angeles early in the week and the public will undoubtedly join in on that opinion closer to kickoff. Chicago may have snapped its four-game losing skid last Sunday, but that win came against a Detroit Lions squad missing QB Matthew Stafford.

SPREAD TO BET LATER: NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS AT PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (+3.5, 44.5)

Oh boy, the media is going to have a field day with this rematch of Super Bowl LII. Revenge will be the overwhelming theme and that will play into the public, even though the mastermind of the “Philly Special” Nick Foles is taking snaps for Jacksonville now.

The Eagles opened as low as +3 and quickly went to +3.5. I don’t expect the line to stop there, and if you like Philadelphia you might want to play it cool and see how high this goes.

Both teams are coming off the bye week, and while the Eagles may not fear the big bad Patriots like other teams, New England is coming off a loss (to Baltimore in Week 9) and boasts a 47-9 SU and 40-16 ATS record in that spot since 2003. If you dare to push back against this 70 percent winner, pump the breaks and wait for more on the Eagles.

TOTAL TO BET NOW: UNDER 53 KANSAS CITY CHIEFS VS. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

The NFL heads south of the border for this AFC West matchup in Mexico City. Books posted the total between 52.5 and 53 (even some 53.5 out there) but I see this number ticking down before the Monday night kickoff.

Los Angeles has been spotty on offense at best. The Chargers should have blown the Packers clean out of the water two weeks ago but settled for five field goals attempts (made four of them) in a 26-point effort. Then, they scored just 24 points in a loss versus the Raiders on Thursday. That’s not going to be enough to keep pace with Kansas City.

Now, everyone remembers the debacle of last year’s Mexico City game – Chiefs vs. Rams – when the field wasn’t up to snuff (and moved to L.A.). It looks like the field at Estadio Azteca will pass code this time (at least enough to play), but the altitude in Mexico City (which sits 7,350 feet above sea level – more than 2,000 feet higher than Denver) will play a role and come the fourth quarter, these teams could be running on empty. If you like the Under, get this total as high as you can now.

TOTAL TO BET LATER: UNDER 44 JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Foles gets Take 2 with the Jaguars after lasting eight pass attempts in Week 1 before breaking his collarbone and turning the keys over to rookie QB Gardner Minshew. But with Minshew showing his rookie stripes in recent efforts, Jacksonville has just cause to start their $88 million investment now that he's healthy.

On the other side of the field, Colts QB Jacoby Brissett should be back in action. Indianapolis held him out of Week 10’s game with Miami – perhaps thinking it could get by the Fins with Brian Hoyer under center – and got beat. His return to play as well as Foles’ could prompt some movement upwards for this total – if even just a point or so.

Both teams have sound defenses and will lean more on the ground game on the offensive side of the ball, which is why this number is pretty low to begin with. There are some 44.5 Over/Under numbers starting to show and added juice to the Over 44 at other books, so wait and see if you can get a little higher before bagging the Under in this AFC South showdown.
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Old 11-14-2019, 01:36 PM
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NFL Pittsburgh CB Joe Haden (illness) and LB Anthony Chickillo (ribs) are ? Thursday. WR Ryan Switzer (back) and FB Roosevelt Nix (knee) are out. G Ramon Foster (concussion) and RB James Conner (shoulder) are probable
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Old 11-14-2019, 01:36 PM
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Cleveland Ricky Seals-Jones (knee) and T Kendall Lamm (knee) are ? Thursday. DE Olivier Vernon (knee) and S Eric Murray (knee) are out.
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Old 11-14-2019, 02:37 PM
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Browns are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 Thursday games.
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Old 11-14-2019, 02:56 PM
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NFL Pittsburgh CB Joe Haden (illness) upgraded to probable Thursday
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Old 11-14-2019, 07:13 PM
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NFL Pittsburgh LB Anthony Chickillo (ribs) downgraded to out Thursday
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Old 11-14-2019, 07:14 PM
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Cleveland TE Ricky Seals-Jones (knee) upgraded to probable Thursday. T Kendall Lamm (knee) downgraded to out
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