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  #51  
Old 03-18-2019, 09:00 PM
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BTC 3980

Bitcoin and all of crypto for that matter are looking very bullish right now to me. Bitcoin has broken it's year long diagonal resistance with a weekly closing candle above this major resistance. The downward diagonal of course can be drawn slightly differently depending on user and will also look somewhat different based on which exchange you're charting, but based on my charts it appears we have crossed and closed above this area signalling to me (along with a number of other factors) that bitcoin has indeed bottomed at 3150 and the bear market is over. Finally!

Now having said that, nothing has really changed in my view both short term and long term for price. I'm still targeting 4800-5000 in the short term, and thinking it will probably be rejected by the 200 day MA around 4800 currently ( or possibly 200 EMA at 4700 currently). If we drop from there I'm hopeful we will find support at 4000/4200 then from there probably slowly continue to work our way up ( basically the way we have been for the past 3 months). That's another reason I'm feeling confident we have bottomed. It has been 3 months since bitcoin bottomed at 3150. So we are up a mere 30% or so in 3 months which is great healthy growth imo. And in that time we haven't tested the lows yet, other than making a higher low at 3300. If we move down from here instead of up I'm looking at 3500 for a possible landing spot based on upward diagonal from the lows. I'm actually somewhat hoping for this because it would a) be an even stronger signal that we have bottomed after making multiple higher lows and b) it would present an amazing buying opportunity for the long term. I've already been accumulating in the 3000's but haven't gone real big yet in case we fell further. I'm now more than 60% confident the low is in so I've been buying but would love to get an even lower price around 3500.

Alt coins continuing to run pretty nicely. I got the decent pop from Cardano and Stellar I had been waiting for but still in those positions wanting more. Stellar had another nice day today. It was finally added to Coinbase a few days ago (after leaving me to wait for 6 months! Fuck you Coinbase) By the way, I would advise against using coinbase. They have the highest fees and while they have helped the adoption of crypto, they are now becoming a behemoth and sucking people dry on fees and getting rich of insider trading based on listings. There are better options out there. Anyway, I'm also holding some Mainframe, Etherparty, Ontology at the moment for smaller cap alt coins plays. Keeping an eye on Binance coin as always. It's at all time highs in BTC comparative but showing resistance there finally. I closed most of my position here, waiting to see if it can break those highs but I'm fairly certain it will. Binance coin is becomign the new Ethereum in the sense that it's large use case is becoming to use to buy into ICO's on Binance. It's no secret ETH's price exploded in value in 2017 due to it being the primary funding option into ICO's. When ICO's died, ETH died. Now they are coming back slowly thanks to Binance, but they are using their own token. SO it's safe to assume that if ICO's keep being pushed through binance and the results are good BNB has major potential to go on an insane run similar to ETH in 2017. Another one to watch is STEEM. Their mainnet launches at the end of the month and coins generally pump hard leading up to the event.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/h9tf9bcC/
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  #52  
Old 04-02-2019, 10:12 PM
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BTC 5034

Target acquired! I've been targeting 5k for the past 6 and it finally made it after an insane night last night. Watching that green candle fly up was amazing. $1000 gain in about an hour and a half. Pulled back slightly to 4700 this morning and now back over 5k. I planned to sell a lot if we made it here, but at this moment I'm still holding off until momentum dies off. With a massive move like this it is definitely getting the attention of the mainstream again. There's a good chance joe-nobodies will see the move and jump in now. Don't do this! I mean sure it could just keep going, but it's very unlikely it has too much more room to run. A move to 6k and major resistance is possible but I'm still doubting it for now. It needs some time to cool off. the 200 day MA is about 4600. It blasted through last night but hasn't come back to back-test yet. I expect we move back down to there before too long (end of this week). Then we will see if it can hold. If so it will be very bullish and we may not ever see the 3k's again.

The move was great, although it still kind of caught me in a bad spot. In my trading account (about half of my crypto, other half in bitcoin off exchange) I was compeltely in alt coins and when the bitcoin pump came it left alts in the dust, in bitcoin valuations at least. I generally care mostly about bitcoin valuation in my trading account because I'm trading alt coins to get more bitcoin. The idea is that bitcoin will be worth a hell of a lot more in the future, but the alt coins are much less certain. So while bitcoin jumped 20%, my account's bitcoin value dropped 5%. This still equated to a 10-15% usd gain last night, and about 15% now in the last 24 hours which is great, but I'm still upset about losing bitcoin value. Once we were 30 minutes into the pump i decided it was too late to sell alts for bitcoin and am just holding now, waiting and hoping for bitcoin to slow down, consolidate and run flat for a few days. That's were alts have been popping when bitcoin is flat or slightly up. Last night was all bitcoin, but the money began shifting to the top 5 alts this morning. Bitocin cash is up 60% in the last day now! 60 fucking percent. And I screwed up. My only holding i sold last night...was bitcoin cash. bought around 160 a week prior and sold last night at 182. It's now $273 20 hours later! So I'm looking for the normal progression to happen which is money flowing from different size market cap coins to another. Mid-caps should be next, which is mostly what I'm holding right (XLM, EOS, ONT, ICX, BNB, MFT) It's already happening to flow with XLM and EOS both being top ten coins and just now gaining momentum after ETH, BCH, and LTC pumped over 20% today.

I'm not very happy about the way I've traded/positioned myself in the last 2 days, but either way I'm up almost 50% in usd value in the past 4-6 weeks so I'm trying not to be too hard on myself and just trying to focus on my mistakes and learn to trade better in the future. This is a crazy fucking market. I'm sure to get rich or die trying. Hopefully the former!
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  #53  
Old 04-12-2019, 07:57 PM
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BTC 5075

11 days after the pump and we are still where we settled that night. Bitcoin had continued a slow move up, topping at 5450 before dumping 10% to about 4900 the other day. The pullback was a near certainty. But now that it has happened and we have recovered slightly bitcoin is feeling fairly bullish again based solely on the fact that we didn't continue to fall. It has only been 2 days so it certainly could fall much further, but for the moment it looks like it might hold the 5k region for a while longer. Overall I'd say I'm short term neutral though. I sold some at 4950 when it was dropping, and now bought back some back at 5050, but also have a short hedge position on. I fucked up good a few days ago by being in all alt coins when we fell from 5450 and managed to lose a few more percent of bitcoin valuation in my trading account. You would think I would have learned my lesson from the pump on April 1st and would have stayed out of them completely but I didn't. Now I'm just trying to not blow up my account further. Taking things slower, not trying to get it all back at once. That being said, considering most alts have lost 10-25% of their btc comparatives in the last 2 weeks, I am somewhat anticipating a slight recovery this weekend, assuming bitcoin can hold fairly stable. That's a big assumption however.

The main reason for this post though was to give my larger picture view of the market by looking back at the end/beginning of last bitcoin cycle in early 2015. I've been of the belief that the market has been a mirror image of itself over time and it will be the nearly the same this cycle. Until it changes, neither will my view. So once again, I believe bitcoin has bottomed (Dec 2018) and now we are in the accumulation phase gearing up for next mega bull run. I'm viewing this move up as a bull trap. People are excited that we are over 5k and more so pointing at whats known as a golden cross, where the 50 day moving average crosses the 200 day MA from the bottom. This is seen as very bullish. However if you look back at last cycle, we made the golden cross a few months after the bottom, but then couldn't sustain it and it eventually led to a death cross (The opposite of golden cross) 2 months later, in what was the final capitulation. We then recovered and made the 2nd golden cross a month or so later and the bull market was officially on. This was in my opinion the optimal time to buy. Of course you could have bought at lower price on that final capitulation or even the very bottom in january, but that would have been tough to time and mush riskier. The 2nd golden cross gave you high probability and I believe this time will mirror 2015. So, given that, I am certainly expecting bitcoin to fall once again, and with any luck it being a major capitulation wick down just like in 2015. I think this will end up being a fall to around 3500/3600 or wherever the 200 week MA is at that point. A double tap off that major moving average(which bitcoin has never fallen below in it's existence) to me will be amazing. It will get the final weak hands out, and then once it recovers and we get a 2nd golden cross, I will be all in. I'm anticipating for this to occur around 6 months from now (fall-winter). Just be patient, I'm quite confident it will happen. Chart below for reference.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/GLkH15xa/

Last edited by Xone; 04-12-2019 at 07:59 PM.
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  #54  
Old 04-12-2019, 08:41 PM
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Correction to the chart from last post, I had the 20 day moving average on by mistake instead of the 50 day. Cleaned up the chart a little bit in general.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/xAORZlZv/
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  #55  
Old 04-12-2019, 10:31 PM
MtrCtyPimp MtrCtyPimp is offline
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I hold a little more than 1 btc at an avg cost of around 4k. You think I should sell now and rebuy again at around 4k or slightly lower, or just wait it out?

Thought crossed my mind but paranoia set in and I figured once I sold it would just keep going up so decided against selling and trying to rebuy more at a lower price.

I want to get a bigger position using my profits but I fear guessing wrong and having this 5-5.3k area being the new low.

Always looking for informed opinions.

PEACE
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  #56  
Old 04-19-2019, 08:29 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MtrCtyPimp View Post
I hold a little more than 1 btc at an avg cost of around 4k. You think I should sell now and rebuy again at around 4k or slightly lower, or just wait it out?

Thought crossed my mind but paranoia set in and I figured once I sold it would just keep going up so decided against selling and trying to rebuy more at a lower price.

I want to get a bigger position using my profits but I fear guessing wrong and having this 5-5.3k area being the new low.

Always looking for informed opinions.

PEACE
BTC 5280

Hey sorry MCP just seeing your post now. Probably a good thing you didn't sell, at the moment at least! I don't feel good about telling people what they should do with investments as everyone's situation and goals/objectives differ, however I'll tell you how I plan to play it.

Also my btc holdings are about the same in size and average price around 4500, although it doesn't really matter, its all about percentage gain in the end. And the best way to maximize that in my mind is by the compounding effects of both price increasing the amount bitcoin you have. Other than just buying more, that can be done in 3 ways. In order of best/least risky: sell high, buy back lower 2) trading alt coins 3) leveraged trading on bitcoin futures. For most people option 1 is definitely the best and least risky. I do all to some degree, but at the moment am focused only on bitcoin and this next move.

So, I do think bitcoin will go lower again (below 5k and probably below 4k) It can be easy to get excited and have fear that this could be it and price just explodes from here. And it is possible, but im only giving it about a 5-10% chance that we go above 6k and can stay there for more than a day before rolling back over. Maybe we only go back as low as 5k again and then bounce between there and 6k for a while longer before breaking through the major 6k resistance, but based on the previous bitcoin cycle, and many other factors like the like of any real catalyst to cause bitcoin to explode in price that is present or can be seen on the immediate horizon, and just how markets tend to work, I just don't see it happening. Markets like to abuse people. So the way I see it playing out is that large players pushed the price up from 4 to 5k and are holding it hear until people have time to get excited and buy back in, and now bitcoin is about to make a golden cross (50 crossing 200 day MA) in 3 days or so and I think it's the next domino to get people in in order to get the liquidity for the large holders to be able to sell into, registering them a nice 50% or more profit (assuming they bought in at 4k or less and selling near 6k) Once major selling comes it's likely to be a chain reaction leading to both people who just bought in and people that were already in to sell and lock in profits. Then add in some negative news than can be manufactured and before you know it we are back around 4k. People will once gain fear the end of bitcoin is coming and the whales/smart money will buy back in but now have 50% more bitcoin. So I do think we make it to at least 5700/5800 in the next week or so, and then I do plan on selling around half of my bitcoin around that price. I then will buy back 1/3 at a time around 5k, then 4600, then 4200. And Ideally I'm looking to go back into then 3k's and then I'll buy much more will new money. I'm totally fine with the risk of price going higher than 5700/5800 because of the significance of the 6k resistance (5800-6200 to be fair) level. I don't think it will break on first attempt, but if it does I just don't see hardly any chance (less than 5%) that price just shoots through and never comes back to 6k. So if it does shoot to 7 or 8k somehow in the next few months, I'm sure it will come back to at least 6k where I can buy back in. So in that scenario you only lose like $200-300 (57/5800 - 6000) if your wrong but if right you both lock in profit and then can buy back lower and increase your stack. To me, that's the name of the game: stacking bitcoin. My basic assumption is that bitcoin will be worth much more than it is now in the future so i don't care about my account balance in USD terms because i don't plan on cashing out any time soon. So yes, I plan to sell hopefully around 5700-5800 but I'll also sell some if we don't make it there and dip back below 5k again. Once we get in a confirmed bull market i doubt I'll be doing much playing of this game of selling and hoping to buy back in lower, but due to the fact that we aren't in a confirmed bull market, technically still in a bear market if anything, and having that major resistance level just above I strongly feel like this is the play. I also think this will be the consensus view of traders so I find it hard to think it doesn't fall after this level is reached. If however it we only fall back to 5300 again and hold for a while it may be one last sign that major buyers are coming in and a bull market is indeed right around the corner. The fact that bitcoin has held above 5k for nearly 3 weeks now after that move up from 4k is very bullish in my opinion, but I'm still not yet a believer that price stays above it for too much longer.

But of course trading is more difficult than it seems and most people are better off just buying and holding. So my advice is just to do whatever you feel most comfortable with. Depends on your risk appetite and ability to stick with a plan. Long winded answer but I was coming on here to write a post about this anyway. Hope this helps!
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  #57  
Old 04-20-2019, 12:07 AM
MtrCtyPimp MtrCtyPimp is offline
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Thanks for the response. I actually sold around 80% at 5200 and the other 20% at 5250 and my plan was to just rebuy at 5100 and 500.

Im with you in thinking that there is another valley on the horizon which will present the best buying opportunity but in the short term I'm thinking just try and do my best to sell at around 5300 and rebuy at 5100 as long as this back and forth pattern keeps on going.

The plan was to just take back my initial investment but then I figured let me try and leverage what I have into a little more. The gambler in me. I just dont want to see the thing explode while Im waiting for some peanut dip.

Anyways Im thinking the next big leap will be next May when the next halving takes place or is that a non issue?

I appreciate the response and I find your posts very informative so thanks.

PEACE
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  #58  
Old 04-20-2019, 12:30 PM
Roofies Roofies is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MtrCtyPimp View Post
I hold a little more than 1 btc at an avg cost of around 4k. You think I should sell now and rebuy again at around 4k or slightly lower, or just wait it out?

Thought crossed my mind but paranoia set in and I figured once I sold it would just keep going up so decided against selling and trying to rebuy more at a lower price.

I want to get a bigger position using my profits but I fear guessing wrong and having this 5-5.3k area being the new low.

Always looking for informed opinions.

PEACE
You are better off holding. The idea is to accumulate btc not fiat. If you miss one trade you will never be able to buy your position back.
Example if you hold from $4k to $10k u profit $6k. To have 1btc when btc reaches $10k trading, you need to be perfect to turn $4k into $10k. Any less than a full btc when btc reaches $10k and you lost. Think about it . if ypu cant buy back your original position of btc with fiat you have lost.
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Last edited by Roofies; 04-20-2019 at 12:34 PM.
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