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  #76  
Old 05-21-2019, 06:29 PM
Xone Xone is offline
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EOS

I'm making a big move into EOS for a short term trade.

EOS, if your not familiar, is similar to Ethereum in that its a protocol for smart contracts and hosting decentralized applications. the network reaches consensus for transactions through the use of 21 nominated "block producers" Transaction fees on the network are either zero or near zero, can't remember off the top of my head. It's highly centralized however. It also had the highest ICO funding stage, pulling in over $4 BILLION in 2017/2018. I personally am not a fan of the project due to its centralization, but its tough to doubt a project that has $4 billion at their disposal and seemingly haven't used hardly any of it for promotion/advertising/growth etc. Yet. I also am not going to let my opinion of a company influence me for a short term trade. a good trade is a good trade regardless of the company.

Here's the rationale. Their CEO, Dan Larimer, announced like 6 or 8 weeks ago that EOS would make it's biggest announcement since launch in June. It appears that date is set for June 1st in Washington DC. Crypto projects almost always pump on anticipated news/forks/upgrades/mainnet's etc. EOS is a top 6 coin, and hasn't had any movement greater than the average market moves since the pre-announcement. We are now 10 days away, and i expect people to start loading up on it soon. The smart play is to buy up until then and sell most or all before the announcement. If, however the announcement is very substantial as hinted at, it could run much higher. Current price is $6.30 or 0.0007900 in bitcoin value. of course with all crypto it is somewhat dependent on what bitcoin does in the next 10 days. But i believe it does outperform bitcoin over this period, so shifting some bitcoin into is makes a lot of sense to me. I'm also buying it with fiat on coinbase pro. I don't have set targets placed, but I'm thinking $10 minimum and possibly much higher. All time high of $23 and change. I'm not thinking that high but with very bullish news and with bitcoin continuing higher it's possible it makes a run to $20 or so.
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  #77  
Old 05-21-2019, 09:45 PM
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Here's a good article I just found about EOS and Block.one its parent company.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
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  #78  
Old 05-22-2019, 10:50 PM
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BTC 7650

After holding around the 8k level for a few days bitcoin fell rapidly to 7500 earlier tonight. But not to fear, at least not yet. After checking the charts I've found a very interesting nearly identical fractal pattern from earlier this month. The patter bitcoin has made over the past 9 days is a mirror image of May 3-6. BTC makes a new yearly high, rejected, gives another try, rejected, then big drop followed by complete reversal, another attempt at breaking high, then trend down almost to recent low before making a move from 5900 to 8400 over next 2 weeks.

It appears to me we have just made the same pattern, right to the point of final leg up. Although I think we could still go lower to 7200-7400 before bouncing. I'm still long from 7400 a few days ago but am looking to make a somewhat high leverage trade with bids at 7425 and 7225. Stop losses at 7090 and 6990. The 21 day EMA is coming in about 7150. This moving average has been my main indicator throughout this bull run. Under it I'm bearish, above bullish. 7k is my final line in the sand, stay above I think we move to at least 9400, below it we go to 6400 minimum, hopefully lower so can buy more on the cheap.

Of course just because a pattern played out one way last time definitely doesn't mean it will this time, but given the price levels I think this is an amazing trade if I can get filled in the low 7k's, but still not bad from here except I would still have my stop-loss at same level so would be risking more. Very obvious support zones at 21 ema (7150) and 7k. So risking 300ish for 2100ish. 6.4 R/R. Not bad.

Charts for reference:
May 3-6 https://www.tradingview.com/x/YdCW09S5/
Current: https://www.tradingview.com/x/DXI3S00B/
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  #79  
Old 05-24-2019, 07:18 PM
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BTC 8000

BTC didn't have the drop to my optimal buy range I was hoping for, but it doesn't change my outlook one bit. I ended up taking a leverage trade (only 3x) from 7950 an hour ago. Bitcoin looks very strong right now. I'm looking for a move to around yearly highs tonight. Friday's have been action packed an awful lot lately. I always anticipate moves up if bitcoin is bullish on Fridays since people are getting paid then. Might be questionable rationale but it certainly has seemed to play out that way a lot ever since I've been in crypto. If we break 8250 I'll consider adding to my leverage long as well. As long as we stay above 7900 I stay short term mega-bullish, while still being prepared for the possibility of a massive dump.

I'm also out of nearly all alt-coin positions right now other than EOS and some BNB that I always hold some of. If bitcoin makes a big move up soon like I anticipate alt coins will certainly lose a bit of value against it, and that's not the game I'm playing.
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Old 05-24-2019, 07:30 PM
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Another more advanced this to keep in mind is that there's another gap that will in all liklihood get filled in the bitcoin CME futures chart. Gap's happen in traditional markets all the time since markets close and assets can open way higher or lower than previous close. In around 90% of times that gaps occur on a chart, price will come back down or up at some point to fill that price gap. However, it could take a while for this to happen, and it's possible it never does. There was a massive gap in CME futures recently that was filled by the flash crash a week ago. Now there's another gap that would need price to drop to about 7180 in order to fill. Fortunately the CME futures are closed on weekends so there's a good chance it doesn't fill in the next 2 days. And I'm staying optimistic that it won't fill anytime soon, at least not until bitcoin rolls over for real and moves down much lower. So it's not really something to base trades on, but rather something to keep in mind for the future.

Chart showing the recent gaps: https://www.tradingview.com/x/9fqKS0tE/
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  #81  
Old 05-30-2019, 07:13 PM
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BTC 8250

Quick update. Bitcoin had a crazy day today flying up to almost 9200 from 8600 in a matter of minutes and then all the way back down all within half an hour. Over the next 6 hours it fell as low as 7960 before bouncing up to current price. I had my leveraged long stop out at 8400, and got some other sells in at 8600. also stopped out on part of my EOS trade at $7.35, where it is currently. Everyone it seems that I follow has instantly turned bearish with many calling the top to be in. I, however, after looking back to the fractal starting May 3rd am feeling bullish as hell still. Refer back to my post on 5/22 showing 2 charts. We have STILL been following this pattern almost exactly now for the past 2 weeks. Check it out for yourself and compare to the current chart. If we continue following this path as we have it suggests much higher prices in the near term. I'm letting things cool off for a day or so before considering entering back in big however. As long as we can hold 8k for the next day or 2 I think we are still on a trajectory for at least 9.4k if not much higher. One consideration is the monthly close coming up soon. There should be activity based on where we close the month. I hope that sentiment of traders doesn't turn too bearish as that alone may lead to a collapse in price, which is inevitable at some point. But this market is blasting through all resistance, every pullback is being bought right back up, the FOMO is real. I also think a major reason for the price increase has been chinese buyers (who tend to be the largest crypto traders overall) scooping up all the supply, especially OTC supply due to fears of the Yuan depreciating due to the trade war with he US. I definitely buy into this narrative, so assuming this is correct it seems likely price should hold up well, at least as long as trade wars and currency depreciation are present. So, I've been feeling for a while that the only thing to bring the market down seriously is going to be some major negative news/black swan event. Until that happens I think this pullback should be viewed as every other one in the past 2 months, an awesome buying opportunity.

Anyway, my view could change quickly but for now I think as long as 8k holds (maybe wick down to 7800 support) we are still bullish. I'm also buying back some EOS that i got stopped out at at same price. The trade has worked out great so far. Bought at 6.3 and 5.8, got as high as 8.5, 7.3 currently. BTC comparison up 17% also. Still targeting 9.9 for sells though as we have almost 2 days until the announcement and subsequent dump.
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  #82  
Old 05-31-2019, 12:39 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Xone View Post
Ethereum Classic (ETC)

Ethereum Classic is a fork of Ethereum. Basically the same thing as Ethereum except nobody actually really uses it. But that's beside the point. The play is on the fact that Coinbase announced it will list it in the coming months on 6/11/2018, a month and a half ago. price obviously has moved a bit since the announcement. It went from around 12.5 to a high of 19, and now sits at 16.86 at time of posting. So of course, a nice move up was missed, but I anticipate a fairly substantial move up once the next announcement comes of the actual date it will be listed. So you may ask why in the hell does it matter if it's listed on Coinbase? First of all Coinbase is the largest on ramp for people to directly buy crypto with fiat money. I don't have the time to look back at the % gains when others like Bitcoin Cash were added, but they skyrocketed in price. Now to be fair, I don't expect a massive move for ETC here. It has already been known for a month and a half, and the type of listing, at least initially, will be different from previous listings. They first announced it going to be listed, next will announce the actual date of trading to be available, and even then it will first just be available for coinbase pro, custody, prime. But not initially for their basic on ramp of buying directly will US dollars. All of the moves Coinbase is implementing is to try to cover their ass from potential insider trading complaints, as was clearly the case when bitcoin cash was added out of the blue, yet price was skyrocketing for a day or two before the official announcement. Given this, I don't expect ETC to 2x or 3x or anything crazy. However I do expect a nice pop of 20-30% once they announce the date that trading will begin, and I anticipate this announcement in the next week or two. A sneaky feeling is telling me it happens this monday (7/30/2018)

Not sophisticated enough to buy actual ETC? Don't worry. ETC is actually available to buy in traditional markets under the ticker ETCG. It's an investment trust that owns ETC but can be traded like a stock. It's ran by the same company that does GBTC, (the only way to trade bitcoin without actually buying it) Of course there are downsides here; there's a premium you're paying, and also can only be traded during stock market hours unlike crypto trading that's 24/7, so you might not be able to get in or out of your position at the desired time. Price is $34.05/share today and was trading at 42 a week and half ago. My target exit for ETCG is $42-45.

I own positions in both currently and plan to sell most likely on the announcement of the actual date it will begin trading on Coinbase. I generally would set a stop limit for for this one I'm opting out because I'm confident I'll be able to flip for a profit in the short term and just don't think it will drop much if any at all before that occurs. I will update when this occurs.

Here's the Coinbase announcement from 6/11 to help answer some questions you might have. Adding Ethereum Classic Support to Coinbase – The Coinbase Blog
Target reached, finally!

So I've been stuck holding some ETCG since August. This play didn't work out quite like I had hoped and I believe markets were closed when price started tanking on this back then, and like a moron didn't have a stop-limit in place, so before I knew it I was down big so I decided to hold. And then it got worse, til I was down over 80%. But my patience held off and I sold it at $41.70 for a 10% overall gain today. With my luck it keep flying higher, but I see no reason at all for it to have gotten back up this high in the first place.

These products from Grayscale they have out, bitcoin trust (gbtc) and eth classic trust (etcg) and just released ethereum trust are quite shit. The premiums run so ridiculously high at times. I have no idea what the premium % is on ETCG now, but considering actual ethereum classic tokens are about half the price they were when I bought this stock, and just sold it for a profit, it's obviously extremely high. I have no idea why this is so for Eth classic that nobody uses, cares or talks about, other than maybe people are confusing it for normal ethereum which they just launched a product for (I'd believe it, people are dumb). So anyway, I'd still be very careful in buying any of these products, except for when they are trading at a very low premium to actual prices, and even then I would just be trading the actual coins personally.

Just a good lesson for crypto though: It's likely to rebound if held long enough. Better to use stop-loss orders and not get deep in the hole, but that also requires having coins on exchange. But if you get in a situation down like 30%+ ask yourself if you think it's likely to go to zero. If not, holding is probably best. I was confident the bear market was over when a guy I knew who had bought $1000 of litecoin in 2017 and always asked for my advice. I would tell him it's probably going lower, but will eventually rebound. I found out in February he ended up selling at $22.50/coin--the exact bottom (it was recently $115 lol) and I think he only had like 4 coins. So he sold down 90% for $100!! Cracks me up thinking about it every time, just let it ride! I only wish he had told me earlier when he sold because I would have probably gone all in then instead of waiting.

Anyway, I'm so fucking happy to have that ticker out of my portfolio now, and at a profit!

Last edited by Xone; 05-31-2019 at 12:44 AM.
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  #83  
Old 05-31-2019, 12:58 AM
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BTC 8200

Just bough some back here at 8200, got impatient. However, despite the suddenly very bearish sentiment on twitter, I'm still looking at this pullback as just another pullback before moving higher. There is good horizontal support at 8200 and a diagonal support has been holding us up since May 10, which would be at about 8080 right now. So I've got a tight stop at 8030, upwards targets first at 8600 and then 9400. If I get stopped out and we go lower I will consider retrying long at around 7830 where the 21 day EMA is currently. We haven't had a day under the 21 EMA since March 28th just before we blasted off. This is my signal to sell off a bit and will be expecting a fall to around 6300. Lower would be nice to load up on more, but hopefully that's a ways off and we can take another leg higher first.
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  #84  
Old 07-16-2019, 08:21 PM
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BTC 9500

Been lazy about updating here. First was unsure of market direction after we reached my target of 9400, then after 10k I was selling all way up to 13600. Bought back at 11k rose that up a ways, then have given a bit back over the last week as price began falling. Kept anticipating spots where I thought price would bounce instead of actually waiting for the bounce. Was on vacation for a while, now my computer isn’t working so only have mobile option, so I’ll keep it brief.

At this point I’m doing nothing except setting low buy orders. I missed my chances to sell recently between 10-11k. Even if we bounce back up there I probably won’t be selling as I still feel way underexposed. I think we keep falling, then question is mostly for how long to me. Ever since we hit my last 9400 target I’ve been waiting for at least 8500 to buy back/more. There’s a big CME futures gap there that I expect to fill before too long so that’s my major buy level I’m waiting for. I think price probably makes it to lower 8ks though. Below 8k I might sell some to wait for lower prices but not expecting much lower. 7400 level has had a lot of price activity and held as support last time price fell, and I think it will again. There is a small gap down to about 7180 that may fill but it’s also just a gap on the 4 hr chart and generally only 1 day or greater gaps matter much so I won’t be surprised if 7400 holds and price never get down there again. Below 7k and I’m again selling some and waiting for 6400 to buy again. Under there it begin getting pretty worrisome. Was this just an insane bear market rally and we continue lower over years until we reach 1k or lower??? I highly highly doubt it. There’s no killing bitcoin, it’s just getting stronger, and now people have more evidence of what it can do and how much money can be made. Given how much bitcoin there can ever be, the insane returns it can give, and how many people there are in the world that could be interested whether out of speculation or necessity or hedging or hiding capital I don’t see how price can go much lower than 7k at his point. Think about how crazy this years rally has been and really no catalyst or major reason for people to buy other than speculating. Once there becomes a legit reason where millions of people can greatly benefit by having some percentage of their wealth in a unconfiscatable, uncensorable, borderless currency then the real fireworks will happen.

So, while I expect lower prices over the short term, I’m still bullish as ever on bitcoin. The alt coins, holy shit, are getting smoked and I guess for good reason. Regulators clamping down and binance has announced they won’t be allowing US customers on their normal exchange will all tokens, but instead offer a new exchange will “US authorized” coins starting in August. I don’t know how long it will take to reach my targets of 7400-8500. Maybe a week, maybe a couple months, but I am extremely confident we make it there and then make it to a new all time high sometime before the halving in May 2020. Given those assumptions, if they play out, and I’m quite confident they will, it should be easy money from here on out as long as I don’t over trade. It could get dicey if price starts going sub 7k, but I have a plan and will stick to it. The only advice I can give is to have money on exchange with buy orders set at whatever level you hope to catch. It’s likely price won’t stay low for long. I expect a quick wick down to whatever level it stops at, so if orders aren’t placed you will have little shot at getting within 5% of the lows. I know it’s going back up so I’m not waiting for confirmation of reversal to buy. If the low ends up being 8500, waiting for confirmation would be price getting back over 10k imo, and I’m definitely looking to load up in the 4 digits.

Pro tip: most people buy on normal Coinbase. This way you can’t set limit buy orders and get raped on spread and fees (2.5-3% total fees minimum) Coinbase pro is the option you want, you can get there from the normal Coinbase site. This is an actual exchange so you can deposit cash directly from bank ( take about a week so plan ahead!) but then you can place limit orders and only incur a 0.15% fee on your order, and then you also be able to catch the wick down.

So much for brief lol

Last edited by Xone; 07-16-2019 at 08:22 PM.
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  #85  
Old 07-19-2019, 11:33 PM
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BTC 10550

Bitcoin had a nice bounce from a new local low around 9k up to 11k in the last couple days but I’m not really expecting much more. It really feels like we have put in a short/medium term top near 14k, although I’m still thinking 20k is likely before the halving. But I’m trying my best to not trade my feelings but rather what the charts are telling me, and what they are saying right now is a complete mess of confusion/misdirection. However It does appear a the answer to which way bitcoin will move over the next month or so is very close based on moving averages. I’m keeping a close eye on the 50 and 200 exponential moving averages on the 4hr chart primarily. They are coming close to death crossing for the first time since golden crossing in February. I find it interesting though that the 50 is converting very slowly and acting like it doesn’t want to cross and instead possibly reverse course. If this were to occur it could be a great buy signal that could potentially lead us to 20k in short order. Looking back on the 4 hr chart for the past 2 years I didn’t really see it come this close and reverse when heading for the death cross except in January 2018 after the run up. There is cake somewhat close then reversed from like 12k to 17k. Many instances on the inverse though where the 50 was trying to golden cross then got majorly rejected to the downside.

Also price is really being resisted eighth joe by both the 200 ema’s On the 4 hr and 1 hr which are oddly enough in basically the exact same spot around 10600. And has made a couple attempts at the 21 daily ema the last couple days but can’t break yet.

So, long story short, I’m watching closely to the ema’s mostly with my horizontal resistance being 11-11.2k and support at 10.2k. A close above 11.2k would have me somewhat bullish short term, but I could also see the upside being stopped at 11.4k if my thesis that we are more likely to trend down rather gain up over the next couple months. I,m considering a small margin long tonight if we break 10600 and target 11k possibly 11.4, but I think I’d be better not. It’s tough to say, because my moving average theory would suggest an explosive move upwards if the death cross doesn’t happen here. Conversely, a move below 10k and 10k for sure will result in the death cross and add to my gut feeling that lower prices are ahead

The only thing certain is that this market is volatile as hell right now so be ready for anything. It tends to do what most people don’t expect both short term and medium term, so I try not to get married to any one idea and wait for confirmation on MA crosses and trendline breaks.
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  #86  
Old 07-26-2019, 11:23 PM
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BTC $10,125

Been making our way down for a few weeks now, finally tapering off some though. Much less volatility in the past week after having a week straight of $900+ moves intraday. It's given alt coins some room to run lately which has been nice as I managed to anticipate it well for a change. But as for BTC it showed signs off life a couple days ago right at this same price then fizzled off, but just made a 4% or so jump right at the daily close and CME futures close for the week.

I'm still not very interested at the moment though. There's no clear direction, and more importantly I'm just waiting/(hoping/praying) for a little further dip into the low 8k's to reload and add additional buys. I'm still very confident we will get there, so I'm in no interest or rush to make any purchases or trades until that happens. I royally fucked up by not being fully invested early in the year before it went on it's great run, and I suppose I run the risk of it happening again now if it actually has bottomed out now. And it's possible it has. It looks somewhat bottomish, at least higher lows, and has slowed in its fall, but I'm not buying it.

For 1 theres still the CME futures gap at 8500ish that *should* fill. Also some good horizontal support there. Everyone is eyeing that level so of course it's likely to overshoot or get front ran and not make it there. There's also the fact that the previous 3 year-long bull market had many pullbacks of course but I beleive the largest was about 41%. So from the local top here of about 13875, a 41% decline would be about 8185. AND the major support moving average that held price the entire bull market was the 21 Week EMA, which is coming in about exactly 8185 currently! Also just above 8k I have as another good horizontal support level. SO, I'm really thinking 8k will hold as an ultimate lowon a weekly closing basis, and also that it's quite likely to make it there as well, or at least fairly close. If price were to dip below 8k, I think it goes to 7400 easily, but really not much lower. 7400 has proven to be omega support/resistance over the last few years, but most importantly during this current run. If we get down here i'm buying more for sure, but also then being quite cautious because not only has price now fallen nearly 47% from recent highs, but then the chart starts looking like a picture perfect head and shoulders pattern which would suggest more downside. Although I wouldn't exactly be expecting it, probably even more likely it becomes a fakeout and reverses higher quickly once everyone gets short. In the very unlikely in my mind scenario that we go under 7100 I would however have to consider selling some of my newly purchased bitcoins and would be looking for first 6400, and possibly low 5k's. I'd be amazed if we make it this low, but if so I don't see any way it goes lower unless indeed bitcoin is dying lol. I find it funny I would even think that with my conviction, but just goes to show how falling prices can fuck with your mind and cause you to cast doubt. it's the pitfall of most and the reason humans aren't good at trading.. The easiest way to overcome it I've decided is to just place your bids and not touch them. Live with your decision, cut it at predefined levels, then re-evaluate/move on to the next.

Anyway, lots of rambling, but I'll add my chart for a better visual way of showing what I'm thinking/seeing.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/y99aiBTA/

Last edited by Xone; 07-26-2019 at 11:28 PM. Reason: add chart
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  #87  
Old 07-27-2019, 12:10 AM
Xone Xone is offline
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Last post was my view on upcoming price action, here's my opinion on the market and and the cause of the 300% rally for bitcoin so far this year.

It seems very apparent and has this entire run to me that the price increase hasn't been due to major buying from retail or new buyers, or even through very much cash purchasing. It started of with litecoin leading the way as I predicted and that brought the entire market up with it. Then once that person/enitity set it off with coordinated buys of tens of millions of dollars on april 1st it was off to the races. That set off a combination of major selling of alt coins into bitcoin that has lasted ever since, covering of short hedges from major holders/miners, but also MOST importantly, I think the major buying has been by large institutions. Fidelity and TD Ameritrade now had trading desks open for large clients and much ICE's BAKKT Futures Exchange has begun trials now and is expected to be open very soon. They are physically settling bitcoin so they are going to need a lot of bitcoin in order to facilitate this. I have little doubt the OTC market began drying out early this year and has just been getting more so this whole run. This also bodes well for them for price to show new life once again after many writing it off after the bear market. The timing of the major players all launching/getting close and the runup would seem right.

But what does this mean? Well who knows lol. I would like to think this is just another reason to be bullish that price won't fall lower than 7400-8000 or many risk being underwater. But due to their deep pocket's and illiquid market it should be kinda easy to support price. And on the flip side, it seems best for the market that price doesn't start running higher again for a while. Some consolidation, break from volatility, and most importantly, time for the public to actually take notice of bitcoin again. The astronomical price runups will be very difficult to occur now with price at this level without a new catalyst/world-wide mania. And it seems to me that people aren't taking much notice of it yet, which is still understandable. Things take time. Many people that would be interested in buying already did and maybe got burned because they got in too late so are hesitant to try again. But most likely they, and millions more, will again get that Fear of Missing Out and begin buying heavily once price break the previous high of $20k. Then the fun begins. However I do think it will take a little time to get there. By little i guess I mean 6-18 months. I still think it's fairly likely price get there before the block halving in May 2020, but then possibly get rejected at first go and take a little longer to break through later next year. That would give both the institutions time to get up and running/established, and the public time to get more informed of the immense value proposition bitcoin holds, and that it's not internet money for drug dealers and criminals like the gov't and media try to portray it as, but rather a universal money for everyone that can't be taken or censored by anyone. It has a fixed inflation schedule that decreases slowly over time, and has stood the test of time in my book. 10 years of nearly flawless network security and connectivity, all in a decentralized manner. Nobody in charge=no single point of failure=optimal payment network security.

Okay kinda went on a rant there, pretty buzzed up on this beautiful friday night and feeling damn bullish as ever on bitcoin. I just hope price hits my bids now!
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  #88  
Old 09-10-2019, 07:47 PM
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BTC 10150

I haven't been keeping up with with my posting here as much as I'd like, partly due to to the time, but more so because the market has been fairly boring and indecisive. Bitcoins price has been forming a descending triangle since making it's high near 14k a couple months ago. lower highs, but respecting support at 9400. Price has just been coiling and becoming less and less volatile for the past month, not presenting many good trades, and more frustrating to me not dropping far enough to fill my big bids in the 8k's. But my view of the market hasn't changed a bit for some time now. I am still slightly leaning to a break down from the triangle (they generally do about 60-75% of the time), but part of that may be biased due to my desire to buy lower. As price stands now, I would consider a break down below 9400 as strong signal price is going lower (buys at 8800, 8500, 8200, 7400) and will become bullish and end up buying with price above 11500-11600. Due to varying ways to draw the triangle it's hard to be sure of when price has broken through and can be very confident that it will continue higher, but this level would give me good confidence and above 12k very strong confidence we will make a push towards 20k. Buying at this price isn't a bad play either however. it feels 50/50 to me and most as to which way price breaks, but the upside potential is definitely higher thus making it the better trade imo.

The reason for this post though is because I do see a pretty obvious and high probability trade presenting itself. These "sure fire" trades come around every so often in crypto, and I've learned to wait for them, then hit them big. Earlier this year there was Litecoin due to it's halving this year, then EOS with their "big announcement" that ended up being nothing but still a profitable trade, and now it's Ethereum's turn. ETH has a fork coming up which will implement the first parts of what they call ethereum 2.0. None of the details really matter to me (I'm not really much of a fan of ethereum at all honestly) but history shows that price always rallies leading up to planned forks for ETH, and we are about 3 weeks away from a major one. I believe the scheduled date is October 2 or 3. So, price is currently 180 and is right under resistance of 183. Price bottomed at 164 a week or so again and has already began moving up. If it can break 183 I'm looking towards $240 for next major resistance and will re-evaluate from there. The only thing that makes me hesitate is due to it's correlation with bitcoin. if bitcoins breaks down below 9k Eth will certainly follow down. But just as litecoin helped lift of bitcoin earlier this year, I think ethereum is going to do the same over the next 3 weeks.

So while I feel that bitcoin is 50/50 to break majorly up or down, due to the bullishness that's sure to come for ethereum over the next few weeks I think ETH is what you want to be holding right now. My guess is that ETH definitely outperforms bitcoin the rest of this month regardless, but due to bitcoin price coiling towards the end of the triangle I think Eth's upside may be limited to a 25% gain in both usd and btc/eth pair. It would set up perfectly in my opinion for ETH to run up to 240ish, pulling bitcoin up to maybe 11000-11500, then the fork comes and the ensuing ETH selloff that always happens once the news/fork event comes and goes (generally want to sell 1 day prior to event to lock in profits at high) leads to a major breakdown of both and bitcoin heads down below 9k, hopefully stopping at or before 7400. The short trades could end up being much more profitable than the long trade from here. If both happen I'll double my portfolio value in short time. Feeling pretty confident about it and happy to finally have a strong looking trade available for the first time in weeks or months.

I own some ETH right now, but waiting for price to hold above $183 resistance to buy in big. That might be in the next hour the way price is moving since beginning this post! Stop loss below recent lows of $164, first take profit at $239.
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Old 10-03-2019, 11:36 PM
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BTC 8100

Bitcoin broke down from the descending triangle about a week ago (when I was on vacation with no cell service of course) falling from just above 10k down to 8.2k in a matter of minutes. But I gotta say I'm happy about it since I finally got my buy orders filled that I've had sitting for about 2 months, although not at the most optimal prices. I had buys at 8800, 8500 and 8200 so of course it would have been nice to just it all in here, but that the chance you take since it could just as easily wicked down and bounced right back up with no time to make a move (especially when on vacation).

Anyway, onto what's ahead. I do think it's more likely that price falls a little further. First of all if we were going to bounce right back up we probably would have by now. Secondly, sentiment has turned pretty bearish now which is a big market driver. Also the chart looks like shit, and price has fallen through both the 200 day MA and EMA and hasn't been able to regain them for about a week now. Also binance has shut out US traders, and coinbase just raised fees again so people are really feeling squeezed. Also the much awaited BAKKT platform for trading bitcoin settled futures finally launched and has been doing very low volume out of the gate. And add in some mining FUD and it's very apparent why the fall came and why we haven't rebounded and why I think it's going lower still in the short term. However not too much lower. I'm very confident that 6600 is as low as it will go with 7400 being my more likely scenario. 6600 is where the 50 week moving average is currently coming in and this MA has been very reliable in the history of bitcoin ( check the chart) so I believe it holds if price gets down to it, and if not then I get pretty concerned. But I've felt for months that the low 7k's will certainly hold as lowest support. There's tons of price action and volume history everywhere from 7000-7500. it will take a lot to break through that level and I find it highly unlikely that it happens due to the fact that Bitcoin is in the early stages of a bull market after coming out of a year and half bear market and it's block halving (supply reduction) only 8 months away.

However, if price can regain 9k again and stay above for a few days it becomes very bullish again and I wouldn't be expecting price going below there again.

Also to follow up on my Ethereum trade: It ended up pretty damn good. price didn't quite reach my target of 240, only 233 but not bad. I had taken profit on my leveraged long trade from 180 all the way through and then was stopped out on the last remaining bit at 200 when price crashed a week ago. I'm still holding some ethereum just not in a margin trade any longer. Ethereum and even XRP have both been doing well against bitcoin for a few weeks now. We'll see if alt coins can continue to do ok, or are just ready to dump even more, but I am semi-cautiously bullish them for the next few weeks or months because I think bitcoin may stay somewhat non-volatile and range bound for a while before ripping up again later in the year or beginning of next.
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