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Old 11-26-2020, 08:30 AM
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Horse Racing 11-26-20

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Old 11-26-2020, 08:31 AM
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Jeff Siegel's National Best Plays - 11/26/20

November 26, 2020

Jeff Siegel’s Best Plays for Thursday, November 26, 2020


Fair Grounds Fourth Race – Post Time: 1:31 CT
6 – Ours Forever (6-1)

Short on pedigree but was visually quite impressive breezing a quarter mile in a blistering 21 2/5 seconds over the Timonium bull ring in the preview session of the Fasig-Tipton spring sale and then brought $90,000 through the ring, a rather impressive figure for a Louisiana-bred daughter of Half Ours. The recent local tab hardly jumps off the page but we suspect that this juvenile filly from a highly-capable outfit that boasts strong stats with first-timers is extremely live and well-meant. At 6-1 on the morning line she’s a win play but might actually offer better value in the rolling exotics.

*

Del Mar Fourth Race – Post Time: 12:30 PT
4 – Applecross (Ire) (7/2)

After breaking her maiden at first asking early in her 2-year-old campaign, this Irish-bred filly has faced nothing but tough and contentious stakes competition while acquitting herself reasonably well, and today she receives much welcomed class relief while dropping into a first-level allowance event. The R. Baltas-trained import makes a pivotal jockey switch to J. Rosario, gets an extra half-furlong to work with, and looks capable of producing the last run with good racing luck and decent early fractions to complement her late kick. At 7/2 on the morning line she’s a win play and strong key in rolling exotic play.

*

Fair Grounds Sixth Race – Post Time: 2:33 CT
2 – Proxy (4-1)

Was best when beaten when a troubled runner-up (beaten a neck while more than four clear of the rest) in a very promising debut race over a mile in an off-the-turf affair at Monmouth Park last month and seems sure to improve for a barn that hits at a strong 21% with second-time starters. The son of Tapit from the top race mare Panty Raid broke slowly, raced in heavy traffic most of the way, then got clear and closed resolutely but ran out of room in a race that earned a good speed figure. He’s assured a ground-saving trip from the rail, so at 4-1 on the morning line the M. Stidham-trained colt should offer plenty of wagering value.

*

Churchill Downs 11th race – Post Time: 4:22 ET
6 – Pirate Rick (8-1)

This lightly-raced colt is moving up from a maiden $50,000 sprint to this much tougher first-level allowance affair and must negotiate an extra half-furlong so the task won’t be easy, but we’ll give him a legitimate chance to wire the field and spring an upset. After shipping in from Prairie Meadows the son of Liam’s Map left his previous form far behind with a dominating gate-to-wire score while earning a speed figure that makes him dangerous despite the class hike, and as the projected controlling speed once again the D. Von Hemel-trained sophomore is worth a play at 8-1 on the morning line.

*

Del Mar Sixth Race – Post Time: 1:30 PT
2 – Never Be Enough (GB)

Returns to a mini-marathon trip after an impressive score in the Kathryn Crosby S. over at a mile over the local lawn last month and because she was a stayer (and hurdler) overseas we suspect the longer distance won’t be an issue if she receives her preferred patient ride. The Northern California-based mare has worked extremely well in the interim to remain right on edge and can score right back in this year’s edition of the Red Carpet H.-G3 if she switches off early and finds cover. She’s a gamble at or near her morning line of 4-1.

*

Del Mar Seventh Race – Post Time: 2:00 PT
10 – Octopus (3-1)

Has much in his favor in this restricted (nw-3) $20,000 claiming seller for older horses and should have every chance to regain his winning form over a main track that has produced both of his career victories. Back at his claim level with a cozy outside draw and a recent bullet workout at Del Mar two weeks ago, the son of Shackleford retains A. Cedillo, who has the option of popping and going or stalking and pouncing. Additionally, the sophomore sprinter has a clear edge in the speed figure department so there’s value at his morning line of 5/2 if you can get it.

*
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Old 11-26-2020, 08:33 AM
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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Laurel Park - Race #2
Picks Notes
#5 Backwoods Boogie Should be able to get a perfect kind of trip pressing the guy to his inside, and he may benefit from the cutback while dropping in class for this one.
#1 Holy Saint Takes the next logical step up after an easy win last time out, and he'll now go off the claim for a team that has been having a good run of things this year. Look for him to settle inside and finish.
#6 Goodluckchuck He was a good fit for this price earlier this year, and those last two races were just a bit on the ambitious side. The drop gives him a real chance to wake up and track the splits from the wide draw.
Race Summary Backwoods Boogie needs to bounce back, but he's getting into an easier spot and may be able to get the right kind of trip. Dirt form is a question still, so demand a fair price.

Laurel Park - Race #5
Picks Notes
#3 Silver Sun Steps up to face winners off the claim, but he has been heading in the right direction through recent starts, and another good, forward trip should be waiting for him here.
#7 Natty Beau Put things together in a nice way last out with that easy graduation run, and he seems to be a better horse now since adding blinkers. The one to beat, but he may be sitting on a step back?
#2 Kentucky Cool Big step forward after showing nothing in the debut, but I wouldn't be too interested in this one at something like the 5/2 ML price.
Race Summary Silver Sun is worth a look a something like the 3/1 ML price, as he'll step up to face winners off a sharp win against cheaper last time out.

Laurel Park - Race #7
Picks Notes
#2 Maybe Someday His only two-turn try produced the romping maiden win, and he should be able to find a good spot right up near the top with these.
#3 Benandjoe Another with some pace to get involved in the early stages, but he feels perhaps a little light on class given the expected price at post time.
#5 Closer Look Tends to show up every time, and he has some versatility to him as far as running style goes. Guessing he'll relax off the splits and watch this unfold.
Race Summary Maybe Someday showed little when facing winners for the first time, but he'll be in line for a good run today and can bounce back at what should be a better price than he offered last time out.
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Old 11-26-2020, 08:35 AM
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Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #5
Picks Notes
#5 EMPTYTHETILL Forced to move early, led until late, can make amends.
#8 P L IDAHO Overcame posts 8 and 9 to win in prior two starts at this level.
#4 A BOY NAMED SUUZZ Three deep in outer flow, closed with mid-track rush for third win in row.
Race Summary Emptythetill rushed to the lead in the second quarter after he couldn’t find a seat early. He was in control until mid-stretch but came up short at the same level. Play 5-4 and 5-8 exactas.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #8
Picks Notes
#8 SUNSHINES FINEST In good form, takes magnified drop in second start for Moreau.
#2 SPEED TO MARKET Fired blank without Lasix, ran well in prior pair at Rideau.
#9 MOHEGAN BLUE CHIP Ranged up on 3-to-5 winner but couldn’t stay with him in stretch.
Race Summary Sunshines Finest rallied behind three-peating, class riser A Boy Named Suuzz (see tonight’s 5th race). He has a class edge and most of his rivals last raced at shorter ovals. Play 8-2 and 8-9 exactas.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #10
Picks Notes
#1 MACH DIESEL Wilted late in repeat bid, can control throughout for new connections.
#9 JUSTA BANDIT Rallied for pair of seconds, then changed tactics and controlled pace for win.
#7 LIVIN LARGE Good first impression locally, finishing fourth from second-tier starting spot.
Race Summary Mach Diesel brushed from third to the backstretch lead, shrugged off a strong challenge on the final turn but couldn’t last in his bid to repeat. He can maximize his speed from the rail and return a quick claim dividend.
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Old 11-26-2020, 08:36 AM
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Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Del Mar - Race #4
Picks Notes
#4 Applecross Finished mid-pack in graded turf starts in her last two and should enjoy the drop in class; Rosario will have her rolling late in the game.
#7 Over Attracted Came on well in her last two, losing by a length or less in each; stretches out and can run into the mix late.
#2 Resarcio Has a decent spot and in a race that doesn't feature a lot of speed and can get into a good forward position early; can fight it out for a slice of this.
Race Summary Applecross has faced tougher fillies than these and will be able to commence her rally earlier; one to hold off.

Del Mar - Race #6
Picks Notes
#1 California Kook Has been a steady closer, finished second in the G1 Del Mar Oaks in August and then two weeks later was a closing fourth against males in the G2 Del Mar Derby. She lacked a big kick in the G1 QEII Cup but has the class to prevail in her return to her native state.
#4 Orglandes Moves into stakes company after an optional claiming win at Belmont last time out; Brown took over training the French filly and she'll likely do nothing but improve. In a tough spot today but she should enjoy the distance.
#2 Never Be Enough Has won four of six in the U.S. after running well in Great Britain; won a restricted stakes race over this course last time and has the speed to be a big player from the beginning.
Race Summary California Kook has performed well over this turf course and should appreciate the 1 3-8 miles of this one.

Del Mar - Race #8
Picks Notes
#12 Antithetical Failed to keep up in a sprint last time and is back to a much more favorable distance; can have a more relaxed trip and Baze will have him moving well late.
#11 Bud Knight Held on for second going 1 1-4 miles last time and can be tough on the turnback in distance; close throughout.
#2 Bench Judge Set the pace and just missed last time and was claimed by Miller; big front-end factor today.
Race Summary Antithetical prefers to be off the pace, will be in that situation pace and will follow a good clip. Can get back to good form with this added distance.
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Old 11-26-2020, 11:37 AM
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Paul Leiner

Thanksgiving Picks 11/26

I hope everyone has a great time enjoying the day with your family and friends. Here's a Horse Race I am on.

Del Mar Race 6
#1 California Kook $10 wps
$2 exacta box 1-10-8
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Old 11-26-2020, 12:00 PM
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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Camarero
PURCHASE
Camarero - Race 2

Pick 6 / Exacta / Daily Double 2-3


Claiming $4,000 • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 39 • Purse: $6,000 • Post: 3:10P
FOR NATIVE FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON $7,000 IN 2020 AND WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $4,000 OR LESS. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 7, 2020 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 22, 2020 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 22, 2020 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Lone Front-runner. NEGRI is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * NEGRI: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase S peed Figure at the distance/surface. AERONAUTICO: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
7
NEGRI
2/1

5/2
4
AERONAUTICO
3/1

5/1




P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
7
NEGRI
7

2/1
Alternator/Front-runner
41

36

50.6

32.4

29.4
4
AERONAUTICO
4

3/1
Stalker
46

26

46.2

36.6

33.1
6
HERALDO
6

5/1
Trailer
42

33

12.8

12.6

4.6
3
SALINENSE
3

15/1
Alternator/Trailer
0

0

30.2

22.2

14.2
2
EL PEDREGAL
2

4/1
Alternator/Trailer
29

27

17.3

20.0

11.0
1
PEQUENO ADRIAN
1

10/1
Alternator/Trailer
32

23

15.9

19.8

8.8
5
HIPOCRATES
5

20/1
Alternator/Trailer
40

15

15.0

18.6

10.1
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Old 11-26-2020, 12:02 PM
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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Laurel Park
PURCHASE
Laurel Park - Race 5

EXACTA, TRIFECTA &DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 5-6) /10 cent SUPERFECTA 50 cent PICK 3 (RACES 5-6-7) / 50 cent PICK 4 (RACES 5-6-7-8) $1.00 SUPER HIGH 5


Claiming $25,000 • 7 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 71 • Purse: $30,000 • Post: 1:37P
(PLUS UP TO 30% MBF) FOR TWO YEAR OLDS. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 26 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $20,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES) WHICH HAVE NOT BEEN PERMITTED LASIX WITHIN 48 HOURS OF POST TIME.
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. NATTY BEAU is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * NATTY BEAU: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs.
7
NATTY BEAU
9/5

2/1




P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
7
NATTY BEAU
7

9/5
Front-runner
65

73

66.4

61.2

56.2
3
SILVER SUN
3

3/1
Stalker
67

67

47.0

55.2

47.2
2
KENTUCKY COOL
2

5/2
Trailer
60

69

30.3

50.5

45.5
4
TWITTY CITY
4

9/2
Trailer
66

67

17.8

50.9

45.4
6
LITTLE LION
6

20/1
Alternator/Trailer
0

0

30.3

57.8

50.8
5
BRIBERY
5

12/1
Alternator/Non-contender
60

54

38.0

48.7

37.7
1
JUST NOD AND SMILE
1

15/1
Alternator/Non-contender
67

47

24.5

43.4

30.9
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Old 11-26-2020, 12:03 PM
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Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Churchill Downs
PURCHASE

11/26/20, CD, Race 1, 11.30 ET
11/26/20,CD,1,1M [Dirt] 1:33:01 STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING. Purse $33,000. FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $10,000 OR LESS IN 2019 - 2020 OR CLAIMING PRICE $20,000. Three Year Olds, 120 lbs.; Older, 123 lbs. Non-winners Of Two Races At A Mile Or Over Since September 26 Allowed 2 lbs. Claiming Price $20,000 (Races Where Entered For $16,000 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, WPC, and ROI to be valid.
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Flags Occurs WPC ROI
100.0000 4 Gianna's Gift 8/1 Court J K Miller Jerome F. TS 79 35.44 1.19/$1
097.4183 3 Centerfold Angel 6/1 Bejarano R Macias Adolfo W 232 27.59 1.08/$1
096.2906 6 Seeds of Time 5/2 Hernandez. Jr. B J Flint Bernard S. 412 31.80 1.16/$1
095.9986 1A Wish You Were Mine 4/1 Corrales G Hollendorfer Jerry L 412 31.80 1.16/$1
095.8896 5 Shackleford County(b+) 3/1 Geroux F Cano Juan M. F 69 39.13 1.26/$1
095.7988 8 Kimberley Dream 15/1 Bowen R Winston Freddie D. 79 35.44 1.19/$1
093.5853 1 Zabava(b-) 4/1 Corrales G Hollendorfer Jerry EC 412 31.80 1.16/$1
093.5697 7 Folly 6/1 Cannon D Newton Troy 412 31.80 1.16/$1
093.4930 2 Merada 10/1 McKee J Reed Eric R. 79 35.44 1.19/$1
Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 27.6300, ROI 1.0789/$1
. . . .
100.0000 4 Gianna's Gift
[Category]Condition
[AllDirt]MorningLineOddsGreaterThanOrEqualTo1
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Old 11-26-2020, 12:05 PM
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
PURCHASE

Bar

Charles Town - Race #4 - Post: 8:25pm - Claiming - 4.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $13,000 Class Rating: 71

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#8 YOU MADE IT (ML=7/2)
#2 FLOWERS VALE (ML=6/1)


YOU MADE IT - This jockey and handler's equines have been producing a lucrative return on investment. I think the shorter trip will help this filly stay the trip. Looking at today's Equibase class figure, this campaigner is encountering an easier field than last time around the track at Monmouth Park. FLOWERS VALE - Ran last race out against better company at Charles Town. The move to a lower level should suit her well. This mare runs very well off of a layoff. Batista and his horse make quite a duo. Together they've been winning at a clip of 67 percent. This tight track favors early speed horses starting from the inside. Seeing as this is what we have with this horse, I'm going to take a long look at this one.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 MY T TALK (ML=9/2), #7 VIBRANT GINGER (ML=6/1), #6 UNKISS ME (ML=6/1),

MY T TALK - To me, when a entrant adds wraps in her last event, it's never a good sign. When examining today's class rating, she will have to register a much better speed fig than last time around the track to be competitive in this dirt sprint. VIBRANT GINGER - This mare hasn't had any recent favorable outcomes in short distance events. Not easy to play her in this race. UNKISS ME - You believe this horse is going to finish first just because she's always close. Just doesn't get the job done often.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: The Turf Man - YOU MADE IT - This filly's previous successes on grass make her a dominant choice in this race.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Putting our cash on #8 YOU MADE IT to win. Have to have odds of at least 7/5 or better though

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [2,8]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
8 with 2 with [1,3,6] Total Cost: $3

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass
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Old 11-26-2020, 12:06 PM
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Del Mar
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $38000 Class Rating: 106

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES SINCE AUGUST 26, 2020 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $40,000, IF FOR $35,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 9 LIONITE 5/1

# 4 JULIUS 5/2

# 7 HORSE GREEDY 3/1

I've got to go with LIONITE. This gelding obviously likes the distance, going 3 / 10 in his races lately. JULIUS - With a reliable jock who has won at a competitive 23 percent rate over the last 30 days. This has to be one of the top choices. Has very good front speed and will most likely fare soundly versus this group. HORSE GREEDY - Ought to be used in the exotic wagers. Overall, has one of the best earnings per start in dirt sprint races in this field.
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Old 11-26-2020, 12:07 PM
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fair Grounds
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 10 - Maiden Special Weight - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $47000 Class Rating: 74

FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 7 G'S SQUEEZE 12/1

# 6 SMITTYS BARRACUDA 6/1

# 5 WORLD WAR 6/1

G'S SQUEEZE has a respectable shot to take this race particularly if the morning line of 12/1 holds. The progeny of Bind have produced very solid figs racing in their first asking, combining for a +12 ROI. Deserves a chance given very strong bloodlines. SMITTYS BARRACUDA - Handler boasts very strong win numbers at this distance and surface.
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Old 11-26-2020, 12:08 PM
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
PURCHASE

Bar

Churchill Downs - Race #10 - Post: 3:53pm - Stakes - 9.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $200,000 Class Rating: 104 Falls City S. (Grade 2)

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#5 OUR SUPER FREAK (ML=9/2)
#1 ENVOUTANTE (ML=5/2)
#4 SMOOTH WITH A KICK (ML=5/1)


OUR SUPER FREAK - Sneaky speed on this one. She'll probably be stalking ponies on the back side, then crush them down the stretch. ENVOUTANTE - Utilizing this jockey/trainer combination is a good move. This one likes to win at different tracks. The switch in venue today may be a wake up call. This horse has been cleaning up at this distance. I have to like her chances again right here. This filly's last speed fig recorded on September 27th is at the top in last race speed ratings. SMOOTH WITH A KICK - My handicapping know-how tells me to be ready for this animal in this race

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 BONNY SOUTH (ML=8/5),

BONNY SOUTH - Tough to back a sophomore meeting older for the first time. Probably needs more experience. Won't be easy for this thoroughbred to beat this bunch off of that last fig. Unlikely to improve enough to run a figure close to today's class rating, so put her on the questionable challengers list.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#5 OUR SUPER FREAK to win at post-time odds of 7/2 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
Pass

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [1,4,5] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
[1,4,5] with [1,4,5] with [1,2,3,4,5] with [1,2,3,4,5] Total Cost: $36
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