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Old 02-22-2021, 07:18 PM
goirish25 goirish25 is offline
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Horse Racing 2-23-21

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Old 02-23-2021, 12:02 AM
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Monday Myths: Do Second-Time Starters Improve the Most?

February 22, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

Welcome to a new handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

Horses make their biggest improvement between their first and second start.

Background:

A time-honored, bandied-about phrase among handicappers and horsemen has been that you can expect a horse making his or her second start to show their biggest leap forward in their career. The assumption is that the initial experience and a more seasoned and fit runner in the second appearance provides a recipe for instant improvement.

Data Points:

I crunched the numbers in the database for every Thoroughbred race in North America over the past 5 years, going back to Feb. 22, 2016. I looked at all starters who were making their first, second, third, fourth, fifth, sixth, seventh, eighth, ninth and tenth career starts. Their average finish position (placing), win percentage and $1 return on investment was tracked. The initial study included all field sizes, a secondary study looked only at field sizes of 8 or more runners so not to skew the average finishing position numbers with small field sizes.

Overall Findings:

First-time starters had an average finishing position of 5.30, a 10.0% win rate and a $.80 ROI for every $1 bet.

Second-time starters had an average finishing position of 5.00, an 11.9% win rate and a $.73 ROI for every $1 bet.

Third-time starters had an average finishing position of 4.94, an 11.8% win rate and a $.66 ROI for every $1 bet.

Fourth-time starters had an average finishing position of 4.73, a 13.0% win rate and a $.72 ROI for every $1 bet.

Fifth-time starters had an average finishing position of 4.62, a 13.7% win rate and a $.75 ROI for every $1 bet.

Sixth-time starters had an average finishing position of 4.53, a 14.2% win rate and a $.73 ROI for every $1 bet.

Seventh-time starters had an average finishing position of 4.46, a 14.3% win rate and a $.75 ROI for every $1 bet.

Eighth-time starters had an average finishing position of 4.37, a 15.4% win rate and a $.83 ROI for every $1 bet.

Ninth-time starters had an average finishing position of 4.55, a 14.6% win rate and a $.81 ROI for every $1 bet.

Tenth-time starters had an average finishing position of 4.44, a 14.8% win rate and a $.83 ROI for every $1 bet.

Overall Findings Verdict:

Second-time starters showed the biggest improvement in average finish position at .30 better per starter and also showed the largest increase in win percentage between starts at +1.90%. They’re not necessarily a great bet, however, as the public is on to this and the ROI is a soft $0.73. Very interestingly, the worst ROI to bet is a third-time starter at $0.66, coming immediately after that noticeable improvement in the second start. The public falsely expects the improvement to continue, but the average finish position in the third start makes the most negligible improvement in the study (just .06 better) and the win percentage actually drops a tiny tick. Also note, a horse’s average finish position improved slightly at every start until they reached their ninth career start.

The same numbers bore out when you factored the study for field size of 8 or more starters. The average finish position of second-time starters was .38 better than debut runners, easily the largest improvement between any set of starts from first through tenth.

Bottom line:

This old handicapping saw is sharp. Indeed, second-time starters do show the most improvement and the numbers bear that out. We also learned that the public fails to absorb this information properly. Improvement from start one to start two should not be immediately trusted to continue, and it’s a bad bet to assume it will.

Additional Details:

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, take a look at the tracks you play most often to see if they fall in line with this study’s conclusions. I took a second dive by examining second-time starters who broke their maiden at first asking and then faced winners. Those debut winners had a better second-time average finish position (4.35) against winners next time than those second-timers who lost their debuts and were back against maidens (5.11).
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Old 02-23-2021, 06:07 AM
goirish25 goirish25 is offline
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Al Cimaglia: Pompano Park Pick 4 Analysis-$20,000 Guaranteed Pool

February 23, 2021 | By Al Cimaglia

Pompano Park has 10 races scheduled with the 0.50 Pick 4 set to roll in Race 6. The sequence has a $20,000 guaranteed pool with a 12% takeout, and it will be my focus.

On Monday night, every winner except one was leading coming into the stretch or only one length from the top. The driver with the hottest hands was Wally Hennessey who steered four winners. The leading trainer on the card was Michael Deters who took two pictures.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6

1-Wild Nite Tina (6-1)-Tossing last from the 8-hole in the slop. Likes to race close to the top of the stack and should be there throughout. Has hit the board in 6 of 9 starts at the Pomp and could surprise at a square price.
6-Glenferrie Blade A (6/5)-Last week, starting from post 9 in the slop didn't work out well, but tonight should be different. Hennessey takes the lines this time and will likely be leaving to get the top. Should command some respect and control the race.

Race 7

4-Ask Me Ifi Care (5-1)-Has won at this level before and possess the gate speed to be put in play early. Six-year-old mare is no stranger to the PPk winner's circle, has taken 12 pictures in 37 starts. Looks like a player and should offer a fair price.
6-Prairie Westerngal (5/2)-Consistently a threat at this class and is a must use but will probably be bet down. Hennessey steers and he knows this mare very well. Has hit the board 16 times with 6 wins in 19 Pompano starts.
7-Casie's Believer (5-1)-Drew off versus Open II company in a sharp win and is worth a swing off that effort. Chindano barn has 7 wins in 21 starts in the last 30 days and might get overlooked at the windows.

Race 8

2-Shes A Major Lady (7-1)-Paced the back half in .57 last week on an off-track. Rolled off cover to win last and Boyd could look to work a similar trip here.
3-Mach Me Onemore (3-1)-Beckwith trainee hasn't been consistent but Hennessey is back for his 2nd straight steer. Using because she could land on top or in the pocket behind #1 the 9/5 program chalk and trip out.

Race 9

3-Another Beach Day (5/2)-Drops after a big try in the slop to cash a 3rd place check. Has only 1 win in 12 starts at the Pomp but should like the company. Was used aggressively last week and will add points because normally doesn't race on the lead.
5-BNB (3-1)-Has the gate speed to get the top and Chindano barn has been hot. Looks like a player in a tough race.
7-Rock Star Melinda (3-1)-Raced well in last but the trip wasn't the best and now tries Lasix for the 2nd time. Miller is aboard tonight, and he has won with this mare before.

0.50 Pick 4

1,6/4,6,7/2,3/3,5,7
Total Bet=$18
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Old 02-23-2021, 06:50 AM
goirish25 goirish25 is offline
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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Delta Downs - Race #2
Picks Notes
#8 Nineoneoneprayer She steps up for this off a sharp win on the engine with cheaper last out, and she isn't meeting a ton of serious early burn for this short, 5f trip. She can wire these.
#7 Condesa's Handmaid She has landed a couple underneath shares at this level, and those efforts keep her right in line with what it would take to win here. Dangerous.
#3 Grillin Finisher classes up well with these after running third with better, but she may be along too late in here behind a likely less-than-ideal pace scenario.
Race Summary Nineoneoneprayer has sharp speed to put to use, and she may be able to find the front and never look back as she steps up off an impressive romp with conditioned claimers.

Delta Downs - Race #5
Picks Notes
#1 Toe Bandit Think this one will offer a fair number on the hike after a very useful finishing run in the debut for a $20,000 tag. They'll protect him this time around with perhaps a cozy trip waiting for him on the inside. Still, 5% jock and 0% barn = demand a price.
#6 Gold Punch Couldn't hang with the winner when favored in the debut run, and he'd only need to come forward a small bit off that run to threaten with these.
#7 Little Can He rises out of the same race as the top choice, and he showed pace that day and finished in front of that guy. Shorter price here on a guy who could get caught up in a battle.
Race Summary Toe Bandit races for cold connections, but that was a solid debut run, and he might be able to land a pretty nice trip while saving some ground from the inside draw.

Delta Downs - Race #7
Picks Notes
#10 Left of the Dial Might be the right alternative to the heavy chalk, as she'll go off the claim while cutting back around one turn. Think she'll be rolling late.
#3 Milana Dropper probably blitzes these from the bell, but the price is going to be short on this $160k buy taking another step down the class ladder off another fading effort late. The one to beat, but she's unappealing.
#2 A Wish for Madelyn She took a nice step forward in that second career race, and she isn't far off the exacta in here if she can take another step in the right direction.
Race Summary Milana's the one to beat, but her team is clearly willing to write her off at this point in time, and she has not shown a ton of enthusiasm late in her races. She probably wins this at a short price, but Left of the Dial is a logical alternative on the cutback.
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Old 02-23-2021, 06:51 AM
goirish25 goirish25 is offline
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Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Dover Downs - Race #6
Picks Notes
#7 PACQUIAO Troubled second behind the favorite, price attached.
#2 GRAND CAYMAN Best numbers, makes 3yo debut after 6-month layoff.
#8 THE COOKIE MONSTER Led all the way in qualifier, draws outside.
Race Summary Pacquiao was shuffled in the third quarter, then made a strong mid-track run at the 6-to-5 winner, earning a playback at 12-1 on the morning line. Play a 2-7 exacta box.

Pompano Park - Race #1
Picks Notes
#7 SKYWAY VENUS Figures tough with duplicate of latest, moves inside out.
#4 ROCKNROLL HOOCHCOO Tracked faves as pace slowed, just missed second while 3-wide.
#5 DADS FILLY Ran 1-2-3 from up close to the pace in her last three starts.
Race Summary Skyway Venus followed the two favorites through solid splits and settled for third. She will be an underlay with Miller in bike but should cash in against lesser company. Play 7-4 and 7-5 exactas.

Northfield Park - Race #11
Picks Notes
#7 BAD OUTCOME Can upgrade to good outcome with better trip than last week.
#5 QUADRATIC BLUECHIP Reversed form and romped on good track after fave broke stride at gate.
#2 RV MARCIE Speed, inner post, three seconds in last four starts.
Race Summary Bad Outcome, flushed out before the half-mile marker, dueled hard with hell-bent leader RV Marcie to the quarter pole and held second. She can make amends as the beaten favorite. Play a 7/2,5/ALL trifecta.
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Old 02-23-2021, 06:51 AM
goirish25 goirish25 is offline
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Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Mahoning Valley - Race #3
Picks Notes
#5 Doctor Lee Made a mild bid for third going long last time out and should have a solid kick in a return to a sprint.
#4 Forest Chatter Was an easy winner in fast time last out and takes a step up in class; 10 year old remains in good form.
#6 Royal Blue Boy Drops in class and has the speed to be a factor from the beginning; can dig in more in his third of the year.
Race Summary Doctor Lee gets a favorable pace in front of him today and can benefit from turning back in distance.

Mahoning Valley - Race #5
Picks Notes
#5 Enjoy Baseball Was up in time last out and has had a good move on several occasions; can make up considerable ground on there.
#1 Escape Velocity Tired badly last time but that came in an allowance race and he's back to a more favorable level.
#2 Kitchi Held on for fourth at this level last time and can be in the mix from the outset.
Race Summary Enjoy Baseball closed against a slow pace two back and was up in time; didn't fire in his latest but has the late energy to be effective in this spot.

Mahoning Valley - Race #8
Picks Notes
#6 Charcoal Wired N2L company going two turns last time and has relaxed more in his shorter races; has shown considerable improvement over his last few starts and fits here.
#2 Centrist Just missed at this level two races back and stretches out for the first time; could get comfortable on the front end.
#4 Latin Spice Won going away last time, and while he's never been long, he has shown a late-moving style that could come in handy going this distance.
Race Summary Charcoal is in top form and comes in off an impressive win; capable of another big effort in this step up the class ladder.
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Old 02-23-2021, 09:40 AM
goirish25 goirish25 is offline
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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Delta Downs
PURCHASE
Delta Downs - Race 3

Exacta / Trifecta (.50 min.) / Superfecta (.10 min.)/ Daily Double (Races 3-4) Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5)


Maiden Claiming $10,000 • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 52 • Purse: $16,000 • Post: 1:49P
FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Lone Stalker. BEAR TOOTH PASS is the Lone Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * BEAR TOOTH PASS: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. SLIDE: Horse has run a Go od Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. LIMITLESS MAZIE: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs. LA JAZZ: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
4
BEAR TOOTH PASS
9/5

5/1
1
SLIDE
7/2

6/1
11
LIMITLESS MAZIE
15/1

7/1
12
LA JAZZ
3/1

8/1




P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
8
STORM CAT'S CRY
8

20/1
Front-runner
0

0

0.0

0.0

0.0
6
CABEZA DE TORTUGA
6

6/1
Alternator/Front-runner
48

41

45.2

23.4

13.9
4
BEAR TOOTH PASS
4

9/5
Alternator/Stalker
50

52

34.0

30.6

19.6
11
LIMITLESS MAZIE
11

15/1
Trailer
52

44

29.3

34.1

25.1
12
LA JAZZ
12

3/1
Trailer
47

35

25.4

36.2

27.7
1
SLIDE
1

7/2
Trailer
53

41

19.9

38.9

29.9
7
OLD TIME GIRL
7

12/1
Alternator/Trailer
44

38

32.2

24.2

10.2
5
HOLY SONG
5

20/1
Alternator/Non-contender
0

0

43.2

19.7

3.7
10
CUSTOMS BELLA ELLA
10

4/1
Alternator/Non-contender
0

0

42.2

20.2

8.7
9
WHISKEY TO WINE
9

20/1
Alternator/Non-contender
50

18

29.8

9.1

0.0
3
RED REBEL STAR
3

30/1
Alternator/Non-contender
0

0

24.7

10.4

0.0
2
ST MARIA
2

8/1
Alternator/Non-contender
0

0

7.2

20.2

8.2
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Old 02-23-2021, 10:49 AM
goirish25 goirish25 is offline
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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Parx Racing
PURCHASE
Parx Racing - Race 4

Daily Double / Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6) Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta


Claiming $5,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 79 • Purse: $15,000 • Post: 1:46P
(PLUS UP TO 40% PABF) FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE AUGUST 23. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JANUARY 23 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $4,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * FREIBURG: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and horse has run well in the past in its first an d/or second starts after a long layoff. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. BOBCAT: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layo ff. HUYA: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. CAPE MAY FERRY: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last t en days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
1
FREIBURG
2/1

4/1
2
BOBCAT
5/2

6/1
1A
HUYA
2/1

9/1
2X
CAPE MAY FERRY
5/2

9/1




P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
1A
HUYA
7

2/1
Front-runner
89

81

88.3

45.5

28.0
2X
CAPE MAY FERRY
5

5/2
Front-runner
77

80

84.8

59.6

51.6
2
BOBCAT
4

5/2
Front-runner
86

77

84.4

71.6

65.6
3
DROSSELMAGIC
1

6/1
Front-runner
87

76

83.0

58.4

49.9
9
TRULY A MOON SHOT
11

5/1
Stalker
81

65

73.4

63.8

52.3
5
THE ITALIAN
6

8/1
Alternator/Stalker
79

73

68.2

63.2

51.7
1
FREIBURG
2

2/1
Alternator/Trailer
88

85

64.6

71.4

67.4
8
REFUSEING
10

15/1
Alternator/Trailer
87

70

23.0

66.4

58.9
4
ADULATION
3

15/1
Alternator/Non-contender
82

73

61.8

53.2

33.7
6
LUNAR ROVER
8

20/1
Alternator/Non-contender
0

0

50.8

60.8

41.8
7
SUNRISE SATURDAY
9

15/1
Alternator/Non-contender
78

69

49.8

61.6

44.6
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Old 02-23-2021, 10:50 AM
goirish25 goirish25 is offline
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Parx Racing
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Claiming - 8.3f on the Dirt. Purse: $19000 Class Rating: 76

FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT ONE MILE OR OVER SINCE JANUARY 23 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 7 PENANCE 8/5

# 4 IZZADORA BELLA 7/2

# 3 GALILEO'S AFFAIR 3/1

PENANCE looks very good to best this field. Her chances to score are much better this time around facing this easier bunch. Has performed admirably lately in route races, posting a nifty 66 avg speed figure. Boasts strong speed figures on average overall when compared with the rest of this group. IZZADORA BELLA - With a nice class fig average of 83, has one of the best class advantages in this field. Looks strong for the conditions of this contest today, showing solid figs in dirt route races recently. GALILEO'S AFFAIR - This group is much less demanding than the last one she ran against. Has performed solidly recently in route races, posting a nifty 67 avg speed figure.
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Old 02-23-2021, 01:13 PM
goirish25 goirish25 is offline
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
PURCHASE

Bar

Turf Paradise - Race #3 - Post: 1:50pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $10,000 Class Rating: 77

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#7 BELLA FIGURA (IRE) (ML=5/1)
#3 STREET SONATA (ML=6/1)


BELLA FIGURA (IRE) - I'm optimistic this mare will run well today. Last morning work was 2nd fastest of the day, which tells me she's sharp right now. This jockey/trainer duo has been producing a very positive ROI, right at +170. The December 17th affair at Los Alamitos (Thoroughbre was at a class level of (83). Dropping down the class scale considerably, so she should be in a good position to win. STREET SONATA - Jock hops right back on after getting to know the horse by riding last race out. That's always a big time angle. A thoroughbred coming back this promptly after a sharp effort is a good signal.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 SUNRISER (ML=5/2), #1 LADY ROBIN (ML=7/2), #4 POLAR ROUTE (ML=6/1),

SUNRISER - Didn't land in the money on August 31st at Del Mar. Followed it up with another less than stellar try. LADY ROBIN - Didn't come through as the favorite back to back. Probably won't gain a top finish today either. Nice race on Feb 3rd at Turf Paradise, but the fact that there are no workouts since has to make one a little worried. Run-of-the-mill fig in the last race at Turf Paradise at 1 mile. Don't think this less than sharp equine will improve too much in today's event. POLAR ROUTE - Hard to put any dough on this filly on the front end. Likes to land in the top three though. This filly notched a speed figure in her last event which likely isn't good enough in today's event.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Go with #7 BELLA FIGURA (IRE) on top if we're getting at least 7/5 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [3,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass
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Old 02-23-2021, 01:14 PM
goirish25 goirish25 is offline
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
PURCHASE

Bar

Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #4 - Post: 2:08pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $16,900 Class Rating: 70

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#5 STATUS SYMBOL (ML=5/2)
#3 CHECK OUT LINE (ML=6/1)
#4 BEST OF YOU (ML=4/1)


STATUS SYMBOL - Is ranked number one in the field in EPS (earnings per start). A dominant try in today's race can add to that bankroll. As long as Houghton keeps this horse off the pace, I have to believe this one could be a lucky winner. Three consecutive improved speed ratings (55-59-66) make this animal a dominant contender. CHECK OUT LINE - The morning line odds on this mare are higher than those of the other entrant from the shedrow of conditioner Radosevich. Often the longer-priced part of a 'split' entry wins. This animal has increased her speed ratings from a fig of 43 to 62 to 64 right in a row. BEST OF YOU - You always have to be on the lookout for money making jockey/conditioner teams; we have one right here. Personally, I wouldn't worry about where she finished in her last race (fourth). Should improve in this race, with some pretty good odds.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 SHEZA FINE JUSTICE (ML=7/5), #1 GIFT FROM MOM (ML=8/1),

SHEZA FINE JUSTICE - This probable favorite hasn't been to the track in awhile. No drills since last race. GIFT FROM MOM - The effort in the last race on Feb 9th probably won't hold up against stiffer competition when they turn for home.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Go with #5 STATUS SYMBOL on top if we're getting at least 2/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
5 with [3,4]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [3,4,5] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None
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Old 02-23-2021, 01:22 PM
goirish25 goirish25 is offline
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Delta Downs
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Allowance - 5.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $38000 Class Rating: 76

FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER OR TRIAL OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JANUARY 23 ALLOWED 3 LBS.


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The Walker Group Picks

# 5 SHE WANTS HALF 5/1

# 6 COOL SPRING 8/1

# 7 CONDESA'S HANDMAID 6/1

SHE WANTS HALF is the best bet in this race. Must be given consideration in this competition if only for the very good speed figure posted in the last outing. COOL SPRING - Has performed solidly recently in sprint races, posting a nifty 63 avg Equibase Speed Fig. CONDESA'S HANDMAID - Has to be given consideration - I like the numbers from the last contest. Has a very solid shot in here if you like back class.
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