Go Back   Sports Handicapping at cappersmall > >

Horse Racing Sports Handicapping at the Racetrack!

Likes Likes:  3
Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 02-27-2021, 07:55 PM
goirish25 goirish25 is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 255,437
Rewards: 306,224
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1730
Likes (Received): 32952
Horse Racing 2-28-21

Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 02-28-2021, 07:18 AM
goirish25 goirish25 is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 255,437
Rewards: 306,224
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1730
Likes (Received): 32952
Al Cimaglia: Cal Expo Pick 4 Analysis-$25,000 Guaranteed Pool

February 28, 2021 | By Al Cimaglia

Cal Expo has a 12-race card ready to go tonight and the 0.20 Pick 4 starts in Race 9. The sequence has a $25,000 guaranteed pool with a 16% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 9

3-Noisy Nora (3-1)-Noira drops to the basement and with 1 win in 42 tries she can use the help. Does pass horses down the lane sometimes. Will include but is 0-33 at CalX and offers no value.
5-Blue Gem (9/2)-This would be the spot for an overdue win. Last picture happened versus similar on 12-5. Could be dialed on high tonight and this is a field without much form.
6-Selma O'Brien (6-1) -Broke down the lane to lose all chance in last. Probably wouldn't have won but might have hit the board. Will take a swing she minds her manners and the ++ driver change to Roland makes a difference.
7-Place At The Beach (5-1)-Dropped to this level in last and was used hard to get the lead but faded down the lane. Longo may look to grind things out this time. Went off as the chalk last week and could be overlooked at the windows.
9-Queen Of Marcs (15-1)-Drew the rail when dropped to this class in last and was a game 3rd. Closers came on to win that race and this mare held on better than others. This post will add to a big price and is worth a swing versus this crew.

Race 10

1-Marvtherat (5-1)-Drew outside in last and rallied from way back to cash a 3rd place check. Not sure starting from the rail helps but did pace a .56 last half and a 27.1 final quarter. Could offer a square price and should be a threat with an alert start.
6-Timetoplaythegame (6-1)-Drops to the level of an odds-on win on 2-5. Cutting returns and was his choice. Should like the company and can pass them all down the lane.
7-Bet Together (5/2)-Has raced from the back in the last 3 starts and has not been able to snag a win. Did take a lot of action at the windows in last and will look for a more aggressive steer tonight.
9-Fly Away (5-1)-Beat many of these last week with a trip out win from the rail. This won't be as easy. Svendsen is between the pipes and he knows well. Twelve-year-old can come from off cover and that could work well if the pace is honest.

Race 11

4-Mystic Ruler (3-1)-Drops after battling $8k claimers in last 3 starts. Has the speed to beat this crew but will need Roland to get a good early seat.
6-To The Limit (2-1)-Steps-up after taking care of $4k claimers with a 56.1 back half as an odds-on choice. Nine-year-old likes CalX winning 14 of 59 starts. Should be rolling late and the short field won't hurt chances.

Race 12

5-Cantholdmebackmack (5/2)-Camera shy 11-year-old loses Roland as he steers his own but is Plano's choice over the 8. Drops after being used twice and not able to stay with a strong winner. Raced close to the top in a 55.3 1st half last week and this race may set-up better.
7-Buzz Light (3-1)-Buzz has been facing tougher and could make some noise at this level. Latest form has been dull but can close faster than this crew and will look for a big try here.

0.20 Pick 4

3,5,6,7,9/1,6,7,9/4,6/5,7
Total Bet=$16
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 02-28-2021, 07:21 AM
goirish25 goirish25 is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 255,437
Rewards: 306,224
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1730
Likes (Received): 32952
Jeff Siegel's National Prime Plays for 2/28/21

February 28, 2021

Jeff Siegel’s National Prime Plays

Every Friday thru Sunday handicapper Jeff Siegel offers his best wagering opportunity from a selected North American racetrack. These “Best Plays” can take the form of a win wager, exacta, trifecta, or a daily double, pick-3, pick-4 or pick-6.

*

Gulfstream Park – Third Race – Post time: 1:08 ET
3-Publicly Available (2-1)

This strong, powerful colt has taken some time to get to the races but a series of sharp drills at Payson Park should have him fit enough to win at first asking in this six furlong maiden special weight affair for 3-year-olds. The son on Liam’s Map, a $275,000 yearling purchase that looks the part, shows a :48 3/5 seconds gate workout 15 days ago over the deepish Payson Park surface that was the fastest of 58 for the distance, and from a barn that is more than capable of winning with a debut runner this colt will be hard to beat if he leaves with his field.

*

Gulfstream Park – Sixth Race – Post time: 2:36 ET
7-Cambi Lion (6-1)

Medaglia d’Oro colt from the terrific turf race mare Cambiocorsa finished sixth in his debut over the local lawn but by all rights should have been much closer in a race taken but subsequent stakes winner Annex. Was off slowly from his outside draw and trailed early, rallied inside into the lane and was finishing with purpose until running into a road block inside the sixteenth pole that cost him all of his momentum. As it was, Shug’s colt was beaten just four and one-half lengths, and since second time starters from this stable almost always improve, this promising 3-year-old seems capable of springing a surprise at 6-1 on the morning line in this middle distance maiden affair for sophomores.
*
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 02-28-2021, 07:23 AM
goirish25 goirish25 is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 255,437
Rewards: 306,224
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1730
Likes (Received): 32952
Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies - 2/28/21

February 28, 2021

Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies


Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.).
*
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.


Click here to view today’s Daily Workout Report


RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B-
Use: 3-Exultation; 5-Squalotoro; 10-Galloping Mischief

Forecast: There is nothing to trust in today’s opener, a starter optional claiming extended turf sprint that has all the makings of a chaotic affair. Best advice is to spread the race using as many as your budge allows. Listed above are two price chances that should be among those included on your ticket along with (on pure form) the somewhat shaky top pick, Exultation. The lightly-raced six-year-old just earned a career top speed figure when rallying to finish second in his first outing since April, and if he can produce any type of forward move he could tag the speed over a course and distance that plays kindly to the late runners. The Paynter gelding’s two main issues, though, are his preference for finishing second or third rather than winning and his disturbing habit of failing to deliver when he assumes the role of the favorite. Six times during his 11-race career he has gone to the post as the betting choice and he has been beaten every time. The P. Eurton-trained runner could vety well wind up being the favorite again. As for longshots, let’s first consider Squalotoro, a first-off-the-claim play for D. O’Neill, whose stats with this angle are quite good (22% with a positive ROI). The Clubhouse Ride gelding has the deep closing style that fits the profile for this six and one-half furlong distance and with some help up front he could be dangerous from the quarter pole home at 12-1 on the morning line. He’s run well over the local lawn in the past, has worked decently since changing barns, and has speed figures that make him a contender. Galloping Mischief, listed at 10-1 on the morning line, is another that offers long shot value for a few reasons. He’s a second-off-the-claim for a low profile but high percentage outfit, is protected in a sign of confidence, sports the route-to-sprint angle, and is adding blinkers for the first time. The son of Into Mischief won a Hillside turf sprint here a couple of years ago and is another with prior speed figures that if duplicated will make him solid fit against this group.
*
*
RACE 2: Post: 1:03 PT Grade: B-
Use: 2-Gabby Hayes; 4-Big Well

Forecast: We’ll double the second race, a modest maiden $50,000 claiming miler for state-bred 3-year-olds. Big Well failed to make any impression in a maiden special weight affair on grass last time out but this return to the main track coupled with the class drop and the switch to F. Prat could make a world of difference to the T. Yakteen-trained gelding. His numbers are headed in the right direction, he shows a steady, healthy work pattern since raced, and clearly doesn’t have a whole lot to beat. Gabby Hayes is faster on figures than ‘Well and is stretching out and dropping into a claimer for the first time, the reasons he’s listed as the 2-1 morning line favorite. We suspect bug girl J. Pyfer will try to put him on the lead, which seems like a proper strategy in a field lacking in effective closers. We’ll give Big Well a slight edge on top but include both in rolling exotic play.
*
*
RACE 3: Post: 1:33 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Jibber Jabber; 4-Cider Apple

Forecast: Cider Apple looked to be in need of the outing when winding up a closing third over nine furlongs on grass here earlier this month in her U.S. debut and today, with that race under her belt and the shortening in trip to a flat mile, the J. Mullins-trained import should be hard to beat. The barn’s “go to” rider T. Baze stays aboard and we expect he’ll have this English-bred filly along in time. Somewhat surprisingly, she’s not the morning line favorite at 5/2; that honor goes to the Irish invader Jibber Jabber, who is listed a half point lower at 2-1. Her form in France was quite good last summer and her Timeform numbers are superior to ‘Apple’s, but she really hasn’t been impressive in her main track recent drills, though it’s likely that she’ll be much more comfortable on grass. We’re expecting the winner to be one or the other but because she’s had a prior local outing we’ll give Cider Apple a slight edge on top.
*
*
RACE 4: Post: 2:06 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Motown Music; 6-Romano

Forecast: Romano, freshened since Del Mar, has looked good in the a.m. leading up this starter’s allowance main track miler and has a history of firing fresh for a barn that boasts superior stats with layoff runners. With two wins and nine seconds, he’s never been one to bank on under pressure in the final furlong, but the way the P. D’Amato barn has been sizzling in recent weeks this veteran gelding must be considered extremely live and well-meant. F. Prat stays aboard, has won on him in the past, and will have this son of Run Away and Hide motoring through the lane. Motown Music returns off short rest after failing at even money with a perfect trip in a first-level allowance affair just eight days ago over this track and distance. He’ll remove the blinkers that were added for that race while switching to U. Rispoli, so the Quality Road gelding, with strong speed figures for this level, must be given a chance to make amends. We’ll try to get by using just these two in our rolling exotics.
*
*
RACE 5: Post: 2:39 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Uncle Ray; Ox Bridge

Forecast: Ox Bridge displayed some ability in a pair of straight maiden events in New York in the summer of 2019 before being stopped on and today reappears as a first-time gelding in a soft maiden $50,000 grass sprint for the D. O’Neill barn following what appears to be a series of good workouts at San Luis Rey Downs. The son of Oxbow has little to beat and with U. Rispoli taking the call we’re going to assume that he’s fit and ready. Uncle Ray is the one to fear most. Runner-up in his debut at this level over this course last March, he was stopped on for a few months and then was subsequently overmatched in a pair of straight maiden two-turns events, though earning speed figures that make him a solid fit in this league. We’re expecting the Declaration of War gelding to display good speed from the rail and stick around a long time in what clearly is a below par field for the level.
*
*
RACE 6: Post: 3:13 PT Grade: C+
Use: 1-Betito; 2-Count Alexei; 5-Notre Dame

Forecast: Bottom-rung maiden claimers sprint five and one-half furlongs in the first leg of the late Pick-4. Count Alexei plummets from straight maiden company and may have found his friends, though his layoff from October is concerning and so is his propensity for fading under pressure in the final stages of most of his races. Against this group at this shortened trip he may shake loose and get brave, and good recent workouts at Los Alamitos are encouraging, so we’ll put the B.Koriner-trained son of Vronsky on top but not with any degree of confidence. Betito has the blinkers off angle that we always like after finishing a respectable third in a similar maiden $20,000 sprint here two weeks ago. The K. Mullhall-trained son of Heat Shield will be in the fray throughout and in his second start off a layoff can be expected to stick around a little longer. Notre Dame, purchased at auction for $1 million two years ago, has been non-competitive in three career starts but has never raced this cheaply. Freshened since August, the son of Into Mischief shows a promising a series of recent workouts at San Luis Rey Downs and may be better than shown. Toss him in.
*
*
RACE 7: Post: 3:45 PT Grade: B-
Use: 3-Bedrock; 8-Blackout; 9-Castle

Forecast: The P. Miller barn has a pair of major players in this turf sprint for $25,000 older claimers. The better price (5-1) of the two on the morning line is Bedrock, a first-off-the-claim play (26%, strong ROI with this angle) making his first start as a gelding, switching to grass and changing riders to J. J. Hernandez. Most effective as a late-running sprinter. the son of Red Rocks surely will be outrun early, but over a course that plays well to the closers he could very well uncork a strong late kick and pull off a minor surprise. Stable mate Blackout folded up after cutting out the fractions in a grass miler at this level last month but shortens up and is reunited with “win rider: F. Prat, so improvement is likely. A two-time winner over the Santa Anita turf course, the French-bred veteran projects to enjoy an ideal stalking trip and then have every chance to seal the deal in the final furlong. Castle, away almost a year but training decently for his comeback, always has had a winning spirit (he’s 6-for-16 lifetime) and has a history of firing a big shot fresh. The recent local workouts include a bullet five furlong main track drill (1:00h, fastest of 64) two weeks ago and there’s no question that if he returns with anything close to his best race he can win.
*
*
RACE 8: Post: 4:17 PT Grade: C
Use: 3-Bradothebartender; 5-Fashionable Fast

Forecast: Fashionably Fast is listed at 6/5 on the morning line in this year’s five-runner Tiznow Stakes over a mile on the main track for California bred older horses. Indeed, he won this race last year but was all out to do so and we’re convinced that despite that victory he’s really much more comfortable around one turn. He closed with interest to be third in the Cal Cup Sprint last month (his first outing since August) and the son of Lucky Pulpit has every right to produce a forward move, but at a short price he’ll offer no value and may be vulnerable. Brandothebartender is winless in four starts over the Santa Anita main track and he’s always been far more interested in finishing third (14 times) throughout his career than winning (6 times), but in a race begging to be won from behind he should have every chance to wear down the leaders in the final furlong. Truthfully, nothing would surprise us, so we’ll pass the race; rolling exotic players should include as many as they can afford to.
*
*
RACE 9: Post: 4:52 PT Grade: B-
Use: 2-Whistler’s Style; 6-Kind But She Lies

Forecast: At the prices that they are listed, we’re not really keen on Avisse (3-1) or Flag Salute (7/2), though we do recognize that in an extremely weak maiden $50,000 claiming turf miler for 3-year-old fillies a win by either one wouldn’t be surprising. Instead, we’ll double the race and hope that gets us through it. Whistler’s Style shows up in a seller for the first time, shortens to a mile, and makes a major jockey switch to F. Prat while landing a comfortable inside post position. The daughter of Tonalist has never attracted an ounce of money in three starts but against this group and based on her speed figures she should be right there and maybe even win it. Kind But She Lies – listed at 8-1 on the morning line - seems to be improving with racing and can be expected to be running on late. She shows the two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out pattern for E. Kruljac, and after closing a gap to be fifth in a recent turf dash she could produce a significant forward move at a distance she’s bred to like.
*
__________________
Likes wire2wire liked this post
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 02-28-2021, 07:24 AM
goirish25 goirish25 is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 255,437
Rewards: 306,224
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1730
Likes (Received): 32952
Jerry Shottenkirk: My Late Pick 4 Ticket Sunday at Santa Anita

February 28, 2021 | By Jerry Shottenkirk

Fashionably Fast is the key player in Santa Anita’s late Pick 4 Sunday as he heads a short but talented group of five California-breds in the $100,000 Tiznow Stakes at a mile. The Tiznow – a race he won last year – is the eighth race on the card and the third leg of the Pick 4 that runs from races 6 through 9.
The Dean Peterson-trained son of Lucky Pulpit opened 2021 with a closing third in the Cal Cup Sprint on January 16. He had only four starts in 2020 and won the Cal Cup Sprint along with the Tiznow. He was second to McKinzie in the G2 Triple Bend and then followed with a sixth in the G1 Bing Crosby. During one stretch from July 27, 2019 to March 1, 2020 he won six straight races. He generally does very well in state-bred races and has the class over his four rivals in this one.
Fashionably Fast, a winner in 7 of 18 for $508,245, is a single on the $40 suggested Pick 4 ticket this week. Here’s a look at the sequence:

Race 6 (6 p.m. ET, maiden claiming)
BELITO comes off his best effort in five starts. Has speed, inside and is looking at a favorable distance.
COUNT ALEXEI moves over to the main track after seeing nothing but turf and has shown speed in all starts. Drops out of maiden special weights for his first look at maiden claimers.
STIR THE POT stopped a string of bad races last time as he set the pace and held second.
GUINESSEY ran an even fourth running longer and is a possibility here at a price. Will stalk some pace battlers and could benefit the most from it.

Race 7 (6:30 p.m. ET, claiming)
BAD BEST was in front for a half time running longer last out and drops to his lowest level. Won for a higher price two races back in fast time.
BEDROCK was claimed by Peter Miller last time and had won two straight going into that lackluster sixth on the dirt. He’s back to turf, which he hasn’t seen since June, when he faded going two turns. Can get back to decent form.
BLACKOUT opened a long lead and faded going long last time and will welcome the return to a sprint. Likely to sit just off the pace and he has a good chance to finish with interest.
CASTLE has been off for 11 months and drops to his lowest level for his return. Was a stakes winner threat races back and has shown some life in works for his comeback.

Race 8 (7 p.m. ET, Tiznow Stakes)
FASHIONABLY FAST won this one last year and is clearly the one to beat.

Race 9 (7:30 p.m. ET, maiden claiming)
WHISTLER’S STYLE set the pace in a maiden special races and dips down into maiden claiming waters.
JUDY WITH GRACE closed ground, lost position last time and finished fourth, beaten by just a half-length. Fits at this level.
KIND BUT SHE LIES was too late in her bid going short and can benefit from more distance.
MALIBU HANNAH makes her first drop to maiden claiming and can be close throughout.
AVISSE was fifth in a similar spot last time and was claimed by Ortiz. Could carve out a good trip just off the pace and figures to have something for the finish of this one.

Santa Anita Park’s Late Pick 4 on Sunday:
6) #1 Belito, #2 Count Alexei, #4 Stir the Pot, #10 Guinessey.
7) #1 Bad Beat, #3 Bedrock, #8 Blackout, #9 Castle.
8) #5 Fashionably Fast.
9) #2 Whistler’s Style, #4 Judy With Grace, #6 Kind But She Lies, #7 Malibu Hannah, #8 Avisse.
50-cent Late Pick 4: 1-2-4-10 with 1-3-8-9 with 5 with 2-4-6-7-8 ($40).
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 02-28-2021, 07:25 AM
goirish25 goirish25 is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 255,437
Rewards: 306,224
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1730
Likes (Received): 32952
Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Santa Anita - Race #5
Picks Notes
#7 Mongolian Ford Grinding effort and a wide trip in the debut run, but he'll return with blinkers today, a move the barn has used to land a couple winners from limited starters. Pressing trip at a price?
#5 Capo Mafioso Form is darkened by dirt and route tries, but the two turf sprints were pretty solid, and he's a finishing threat with these.
#4 Chipper Drops in for a tag for the first time, and is only turf sprint was one of the better efforts of his career. He's in the mix here.
Race Summary Mongolian Ford draws well to show a bit of tactical, blinkered pace, and he probably has some room to move forward at a nice number here.

Santa Anita - Race #7
Picks Notes
#8 Blackout Went too fast when racing long last out, and he's one of the most reliable finishers in this bunch on the cutback. Lots of speed to set up a spying rally.
#2 Strike It Lucky He should benefit from a quick expected pace, and he'll get overlooked for a cold team. There are a couple of turf sprint efforts back there that might be enough to land a piece.
#9 Castle Tough read. He's coming off an 11-month break, and he's dropping in class below anything he's seen of late, but his baseline effort might be good enough if he's still got it in him.
Race Summary Blackout should get a great trip while tracking a handful of speedy types, and he's route pace cutting back -- always a big danger at a trip like this.

Santa Anita - Race #9
Picks Notes
#7 Malibu Hannah She ran better without blinkers in her first two races, so losing the hood might work in her favor here. She has never been in this easy, and something like one of her first two races might be good enough to handle these.
#2 Whistler's Style She was a big price when fading late after setting the pace last out, and she should be in the mix from the start again on the drop.
#8 Avisse She has burned a bit of money in those last two, but the blinkers come off for the new team, and she has run well without them in the past.
Race Summary Malibu Hannah gets into the easiest spot she has seen, and she has caught a couple of pretty tough winners in some of her recent starts.
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 02-28-2021, 07:26 AM
goirish25 goirish25 is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 255,437
Rewards: 306,224
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1730
Likes (Received): 32952
Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park - Race #5
Picks Notes
#1 Create Again Much-improved runner won by 17 two back and held for second last time; speed-inside combo makes him a tough one to beat here.
#5 Quenane Put it all together with an easy win vs. similar; doesn't open put two good ones together but has faces stakes company on occasion. Would not be a surprise.
#4 Glory of Florida Doesn't run many bad ones and was second to Quenane last out; makes third for Cazares barn and can reach the gimmicks.
Race Summary Create Again is a battler going two turns and has the speed to lead the way; can dig in.

Gulfstream Park - Race #9
Picks Notes
#6 Cory Gal Has crushed rivals in three straight, six of her last eight, and can pave the way here; clearly the one to catch.
#4 Still Alive Will have to stalk here and has a chance to make up ground; can fight her way into the gimmicks.
#1 Eve of War Showed speed in most stakes and has been off since August, when she was third in the G3 Monmouth Oaks; a factor from the start.
Race Summary Cory Gal is ultra-rapid, can back up the pace here and should be able to dig in when or if she's challenged.

Gulfstream Park - Race #11
Picks Notes
#1 Starship Nana Battled it out and drew clear in her only start; akes a step up for this one and could be overlooked.
#5 Big Rings Was third and fourth in two stakes races and most recently ran at Tampa; capable of a big effort.
#7 Mon Petit Chou Dueled through and prevailed in the final strides of her latest; can be in the mix from the outset.
Race Summary Starship Nana comes out of a maiden-claiming race but is quick and can secure a good trip.
__________________
Likes wire2wire liked this post
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 02-28-2021, 09:43 AM
goirish25 goirish25 is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 255,437
Rewards: 306,224
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1730
Likes (Received): 32952
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Fair Grounds
PURCHASE
Fair Grounds - Race 8

Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta / Daily Double


Maiden Special • 1 1/16 Miles • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 88 • Purse: $50,000 • Post: 4:23P
(RAIL AT 8 FEET). FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 117 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. (PREFERENCE TO HORSES THAT HAVE NOT STARTED FOR LESS THAN $50,000 IN THEIR LAST 3 STARTS). (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE BY MANAGEMENT TO RUN THIS RACE OVER THE TURF COURSE, IT WILL BE RUN ON THE MAIN TRACK AT ONE MILE AND ONE SIXTEENTH.)
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Lone Front-runner. INTENTIONAL WALK is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SUMMER PALACE: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surfa ce. INTENTIONAL WALK: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. REIGNING SPIRIT: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. FREDDY FLINTSHIRE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has a 4F workout since its last race, and th e workout time is faster than its own half-mile time in its last race.
3
SUMMER PALACE
2/1

9/2
9
INTENTIONAL WALK
8/1

6/1
4
REIGNING SPIRIT
4/1

7/1
8
FREDDY FLINTSHIRE
8/1

9/1




P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
9
INTENTIONAL WALK
9

8/1
Front-runner
88

89

98.6

84.4

73.4
3
SUMMER PALACE
3

2/1
Stalker
94

87

82.0

88.2

85.2
8
FREDDY FLINTSHIRE
8

8/1
Alternator/Stalker
93

90

68.7

76.4

69.4
4
REIGNING SPIRIT
4

4/1
Trailer
92

89

71.4

82.4

77.4
6
WEATHER PRAYER
6

15/1
Trailer
0

0

63.5

72.0

59.0
2
DEFIED
2

9/2
Trailer
94

68

24.6

64.5

53.5








Unknown Running Style: STRUTTINBUCK (10/1) [Jockey: Saez Gabriel - Trainer: DeVaux Cherie], SILK TRADE (12/1) [Jockey: Sanjur Santo - Trainer: Tracy Tanner], SLIABH AUGHTY (FR) (8/1) [Jockey: Hernandez Jr Brian J - Trainer: Murphy Conor].
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 02-28-2021, 09:44 AM
goirish25 goirish25 is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 255,437
Rewards: 306,224
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1730
Likes (Received): 32952
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Cross Country Pick Four
PURCHASE
Cross Country Pick Four - Race 1

Leg A of the Cross Country Pick 5


Optional Claiming $80,000 • 7 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 108 • Purse: $88,000 • Post: 4:25P
AQU - R7 - (UP TO $15,312 NYSBFOA) FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $13,000 THREE TIMES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER OR STATE BRED ALLOWANCE OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES OR OPTIONAL CLAIMING PRICE OF $80,000. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES OTHER THAN CLAIMING OR STARTER SINCE AUGUST 1, 2020 ALLOWED 3 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 5 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $80,000 (1.5% AFTERCARE ASSESSMENT DUE AT TIME OF CLAIM OTHERWISE CLAIM WILL BE VOID).
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Lone Front-runner. LETMETAKETHISCALL is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * LETMETAKETHISCALL: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. WICKED TRICK : Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. SUNNY RIDGE: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highe st average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. MIHOS: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
7
LETMETAKETHISCALL
2/1

4/1
6
WICKED TRICK
5/2

6/1
5
SUNNY RIDGE
10/1

8/1
1
MIHOS
6/1

8/1




P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
7
LETMETAKETHISCALL
7

2/1
Front-runner
103

105

80.4

95.8

89.8
3
MAD MUNNYS
3

6/1
Stalker
102

99

90.6

86.8

76.8
1
MIHOS
1

6/1
Alternator/Stalker
107

100

72.0

98.8

92.3
5
SUNNY RIDGE
5

10/1
Trailer
110

102

63.5

104.3

96.3
6
WICKED TRICK
6

5/2
Trailer
106

110

56.6

100.0

94.5
4
T LOVES A FIGHT
4

8/1
Alternator/Non-contender
107

105

70.0

98.0

88.0
2
HONOR UP
2

9/2
Alternator/Non-contender
114

95

67.3

86.3

77.3
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 02-28-2021, 09:45 AM
goirish25 goirish25 is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 255,437
Rewards: 306,224
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1730
Likes (Received): 32952
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
PURCHASE

Bar

Santa Anita - Race #4 - Post: 2:06pm - Starter Allowance - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $33,000 Class Rating: 98

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#6 RONAMO (ML=2/1)
#3 EL DIABLO ROJO (ML=8/1)


RONAMO - This jock and conditioner's equines have been producing a positive ROI. Three consecutive improved Equibase speed figs (86-92-96) make this animal a powerful contender. EL DIABLO ROJO - Lewis brings him right back. I advocate you stay with this strong gelding.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 MOTOWN MUSIC (ML=9/5), #7 ALCOOLS (ML=6/1), #4 SINGLE ME OUT (ML=6/1),

MOTOWN MUSIC - Last ran on February 20th at Santa Anita, finishing fourth. Unlikely to get better off of that outing in today's race. ALCOOLS - 6/1 is just not enough of a price to take on most any racer that has run poorly in back to back races around the track. SINGLE ME OUT - I can't play this frequent non-winner. Gets the task done infrequently. Where is the speed? None to be found in here to set things up for this horse.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Go with #6 RONAMO on top if we're getting at least 6/5 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [3,6]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:
Skip
Reply With Quote
  #11  
Old 02-28-2021, 10:31 AM
wacco wacco is offline
Master of all Nonsense
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 9,106
Rewards: 26,853
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 3076
Likes (Received): 6866
BATTAGLIA Free Daily Picks :

AQUEDUCT
RACE 1

# 1-6-2 Rating: 2 stars

#1 Tekila- came off a two month layoff last out and finished second in a key MSW race that the winner and the third place finisher came back to win their next start. This filly is bred to love an off track and there is plenty of rain in the forecast.

#6 Coal Shaft-missed by only 5 in her debut while running the turf. She came back on the main track last out and ran even better to miss by just a head. Trainer is hitting at 38% here and has the one to beat.

#2 Iaintfraidanoghost-rallied to finished just a head behind our second pick last out and rider is Mccarthy is starting to win a lot of races.
__________________
Likes goirish25 liked this post
~ Drinking with Zipnut Since 2002 ~
Reply With Quote
  #12  
Old 02-28-2021, 11:28 AM
goirish25 goirish25 is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 255,437
Rewards: 306,224
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1730
Likes (Received): 32952
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Golden Hour Wagers
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Stakes - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $100000 Class Rating: 105

TIZNOW S. SA - R8 - FOR GOLDEN STATE SERIES ELIGIBLE CALIFORNIA BRED OR CALIFORNIA SIRED FOUR-YEAR-OLDS AND UPWARD. BY SUBSCRIPTION OF $100 EACH TO ACCOMPANY THE NOMINATION, CLOSED THURSDAY FEBRUARY 18,2021 WITH 10 OR BY SUPPLEMENTARY NOMINATION OF $25,000 AT TIME OF ENTRY FOR NON GOLDEN STATE SERIES ELIGIBLE HORSES OR $2,000 FOR GOLDEN STATE SERIES ELIGIBLE HORSES.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 5 FASHIONABLY FAST 6/5

# 2 MARGOT'S BOY 5/1

# 3 BRANDOTHEBARTENDER 3/1

My choice for this event is FASHIONABLY FAST. Overall the Equibase speed figs of this horse look quite good in this contest. Very strong selection to take this race going in a dirt route. The Equibase Speed Figure of 108 from his last contest looks formidable in here. MARGOT'S BOY - Will almost certainly go to the front end and should never look back. With a solid 96 Equibase Speed Figure last time out, will definitely be a factor in this race. BRANDOTHEBARTENDER - Is a solid contender based on numbers recorded lately under today's conditions. Is tough not to examine based on speed figs which have been decent - 98 avg - of late.
Reply With Quote
  #13  
Old 02-28-2021, 11:28 AM
goirish25 goirish25 is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 255,437
Rewards: 306,224
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1730
Likes (Received): 32952
Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Laurel Park
PURCHASE

02/28/21, LRL, Race 4, 1.48 ET
02/28/21,LRL,4,6F [Dirt] 1:08:00 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $27,000. (PLUS UP TO 30% MBF) FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD. Weight, 122 lbs. Claiming Price $25,000, if for $20,000, allowed 4 lbs.
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, WPC, and ROI to be valid.
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Flags Occurs WPC ROI
100.0000 7 What the Flash 7/2 Chirinos R Gonzalez Claudio A. JFEC 94 43.62 1.13/$1
098.8185 3 Little Bold Bandit 5/1 Perez X Robb John J. T 81 49.38 1.13/$1
097.0305 2 Speightster Red 2/1 Boyce F Bailes W. Robert L 27 48.15 1.13/$1
096.8315 6 Buzzhound 5/1 Ruiz J Capuano Dale 233 37.77 0.93/$1
095.6104 5 Ladneedsahandler 9/2 Joyce J Salzman Timothy E. S 100 48.00 1.10/$1
093.7212 1 Golden G 10/1 Cruz A Sanchez-Salomon Rodolf 233 37.77 0.93/$1
093.2783 4 Speechin N Teachin 15/1 Cintron A Gonzalez Claudio A. W 94 43.62 1.13/$1
Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 36.67, ROI 0.94/$1
Rating gap to 2nd horse -1.1815
[Category]Condition
[DirtMdnMClm]NotThirdRaceAfter45DaysOff
Reply With Quote
Reply

Tags
2-28-21, horse, msh, racing

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 11:08 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, vBulletin Solutions Inc.
Resources saved on this page: MySQL 15.79% Host: cappersmallweb2