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Old 05-09-2020, 07:06 AM
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Horse Racing 5-9-20

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My Spot Plays for Saturday's Heritage Place Trials at Remington

May 7, 2020 | By Jerry Shottenkirk

As it is at this time every year, Remington Park has some important Quarter Horse issues to resolve.

And, this weekend, officials will come up with important answers as, on Friday and Saturday, the track cards the trials for the Heritage Place Futurity, and on Sunday it runs the trials for the Heritage Place Derby.

The $1 million-estimated Futurity and the $350,000-estimated Derby are two long-time plums in the Quarter Horse industry. The five fastest from each night will congregate for the Futurity final on May 30, and the 10 fastest from Sunday will qualify for the Derby final.

My focus here is on the Saturday night’s card and what to expect. Here is the opening double and a couple of Pick 3 plays to consider:

Race 1 (Daily Double, 7:00PM ET)

The program kicks off with what would be the most logical winner in the first, and that’s Aint She Tempting. The Tempting Dash filly rolled to a convincing victory in the Oklahoma Futurity on March 21. A margin of a length is good in Thoroughbred racing, but it’s tremendous in Quarter Horses, especially in big-money races.

Aint She Tempting will be short on the board, and the way to make money could be to try to beat her or use her in the daily double. I’m taking the latter route. The second race does not have a standout, which opens it up the double for a better pay. Good options for the second half of the double are, in order of preference, Conspicously Sweet, Soverynee, Jess a Candy Rogue, and Peves Big Hoss.

Early $2 Daily Double suggestion: 8 with 4-6-1-9 ($8)

Race 2 (Pick 3, 6:27PM CT)

This begins the Kick-Off Pick 3 and it runs through races 2-4. Just as they are on the double ticket, Conspicuously Sweet, Soverynee, Jess a Candy Rogue and Peves Big Hoss are on the 50-cent Pick 3 suggested ticket.

Conspicuously Sweet had a rotten trip her first try and can expected to improve. She hopped at the start, veered and still finished sixth, beaten two lengths – not bad considering the trouble. Soverynne is a first-timer with decent works and lands in a good spot in which to debut. Jess a Candy Rogue was a closing fourth in his only start which came in Louisiana. A good break will put her right into the mix. Peves Big Hoss was an even third in his only start and has an excellence chance to improve.

The second leg is as tough as the first leg as first-timer Cartels Comet, Big John Jacob, Fundimental and Roma look good enough for inclusion. Cartels Comet has drilled quickly for his initial journey, Big John Jacob is another first-timer that wasn’t asked for a lot in drills but is bred to scoot, Fundimental was fourth in his debut and should improve, and Roma was second in Louisiana and can be a factor in her first local start.

We look to the outside in the final leg with Heza Big Scoop and Peves Blue Duck. Heza Big Scoop is a first-timer with good works and Peves Blue Duck has a big advantage in experience and was a maiden winner two back.

50-cent Kick-Off Pick 3 (Races 2 - 4) suggestion: 4-6-1-9 with 3-4-2-1 with 9-8 ($16)

Race 5 (Pick 3, 8:48PM ET)

Bpmysoutherndynasty put a couple of races behind him before figuring it out, but when he did, it was impressive. He comes in off a 1.5-length maiden win and a similar run can get it done for him in this race. He bucked and lost his rider in his first attempt, which was a trial for the Oklahoma Futurity. He followed with a 4th in a Remington Futurity trial and did it all properly in his easy win.

He’s a single in the first leg, and he’ll be used with Instygator, One for Venation, He Is Already Gone and Volcums Hot Candy in the second leg. Instygator was an easy winner in a maiden race 1st time out, is well-connection and will get plenty of spot. However, others have either shown ability and look like they’re improving, or look ready for a big run at first asking. He Is Already has had some moderate works, but has a good pattern and is well bred and well connected. One for Venation is a maiden but improved in his second start and appears to be ready for longer distances than what he’s seen. Volcums Hot Candy has a pair of outstanding workouts and clearly looks ready for the real deal.

The final leg is strong, with Our Secret Weapon, Dynamo Snow, Hez Tuff LBH and Captain America B on the ticket. Our Secret Weapon comes in off a stakes win after finished fourth in a four-horse photo in his debut. He lost by a neck that day, won by a neck in his follow and continued improvement and more distance will help him here. Dynamo Snow was second by a neck in his only start and could improve. Captain America B was second in his debut and then was unlucky in his next two. As the even-money favorite against Our Secret Weapon, he had severe traffic problems and was pulled up. He went off as the odds-on choice in his latest, was roughed up again at the start and finished seventh. His connections are hoping for a clean trip and he’ll probably be a strong factor if he gets one. Hez Tuff LBH was third and second in his first two and should get able to get a clean run from the outside.

50-cent Pick 3 (Races 5 - 7) suggestion: 6 with 3-6-1-9 with 8-1-9-3 ($8)
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Old 05-09-2020, 07:07 AM
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Race of the Week: Sunshine Forever Stakes at Gulfstream

May 7, 2020 | By Jeremy Plonk

$75,000 SUNSHINE FOREVER STAKES AT GULFSTREAM PARK
Saturday, May 9, 2020
By Jeremy Plonk

The Lead:
The Sunshine Forever has lured a field more representative of its namesake than its purse. Saturday's $75,000 main event is named for the 1988 Eclipse Award-winning turf male, who bagged more than $2 million in his stellar career for famed owner Darby Dan Farm. The Sunshine Forever Stakes highlights a 12-race card that will attract the bulk of America's wagering attention on a light national lineup. It's part of the Rainbow 6 sequence over the day's final 6 races, which features a mandatory payout of its pool on Saturday.

​Field Depth:
Grade 1 Preakness winner WAR OF WILL tops the honor roll in his 4-year-old debut. He'll be joined by fellow Grade 1 winner EL TORMENTA, as well as Grade 2 winner/Grade 1-placed SOCIAL PARANOIA. HAWKISH is a Grade 2 winner, while SAND DANCER and ADMISSION OFFICE have placed at that level. This looks nothing like a $75,000 event on paper and the graded performers should have a decisive class edge.

Pace:
The early tempo in this 1-1/16 miles stakes looks to be on the easy side. HALLADAY should be forwardly placed. REGALLY IRISH and wide-drawn WAR OF WILL seek first-over trips. EL TORMENTA is pace-versatile, but while removing blinkers (such as WAR OF WILL), he may not be primed to get involved too early. A deep closer will have to stay more attentive early than usual to win this race.

Our Eyes:
WAR OF WILL will break from the far outside post in a large field, upping the challenge in his return to the grass. He began his career on the lawn at age 2 before transferring successfully to the dirt. While his record shows 0-for-4 on the lawn, he was runner-up in the Grade 1 Summer at Woodbine on the green and was respectable in the Grade 3 Bourbon and Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf. Regular rider Tyler Gaffalione has been Gulfstream Park's leading turf stakes jockey in 2020, according to the Betmix database, in wins (6), percentage (21%) and ROI ($1.59 for every $1 bet). WAR OF WILL has had a long and consistent workout tab for his return. Trainer Mark Casse has had quite a week already, announced as a member of this year's Hall of Fame class on Wednesday.

EL TORMENTA and SOCIAL PARANOIA both exit the Grade 3 Appleton, a race won by the latter while the former stopped badly in his first foray of the year. They're likely not 11 lengths different in ability as the last result shows; plus, a softer pace scenario expected Saturday would give EL TORMENTA a potential advantage in tactics. But SOCIAL PARANOIA was much farther back than usual in the Appleton, and I'd expect new pilot Edgard Zayas to keep him closer to the front flight. SOCIAL PARANOIA strikes me as a slightly classier animal than EL TORMENTA even if the resumes may not make that an obvious point. EL TORMENTA won the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile last year and was beaten less than 5 lengths in the Breeders' Cup Mile. Still, I surmise that EL TORMENTA got hot at the right time. SOCIAL PARANOIA continues to improve each outing.

HALLADAY and REGALLY IRISH could be the principal pace players and are re-matched from an April 4 allowance in which HALLADAY impressed from a difficult post 10 draw. He's in a perfect 6-hole draw for this under hot pilot Luis Saez. He's the 'other' Todd Pletcher trainee perhaps on resume compared to SOCIAL PARANOIA, but is a 4-year-old with a perfect record over the GP lawn in 2 bids. HALLADAY hasn't won back-to-back races among his 4 lifetime scores, however. REGALLY IRISH was drilled in that allowance and appears headed in the wrong direction for respected grass trainer Graham Motion. This New Jersey-bred likely would be aimed at Monmouth if that seaside attraction had not been shuttered until July.

ADMISSION OFFICE has a deep-closing style that won't be impacted by the wide post position draw, but could be compromised by a softer early pace. He ran second during the Championship Meet at Gulfstream in the Fort Lauderdale and Mac Diarmida, sandwiched around being overmatched in the Pegasus World Cup Turf. But he fits well against this kind. Strong-finishing pilot Joel Rosario fits his style perfectly and ADMISSION OFFICE will be the horse to fear late under just 118 pounds. He'll get as many as 6 pounds from highweights EL TORMENTA and SOCIAL PARANOIA.

Another very strong finisher is HAWKISH, who has an electric turn of foot when he's on his game. The lightly raced 5-year-old has made only 8 starts and has not been out since October. The Jimmy Toner trainee has worked very well for his comeback bid and has fired fresh in the past. Note that HAWKISH won his debut attempt at Gulfstream, and posted a strong runner-up in the Grade 3 Appleton at Gulfstream to start his 2019 campaign. Given that he's fresh, expect HAWKISH to be more into the race earlier than his running lines may suggest. On natural ability, he's the best horse in this race on grass.

The Sunshine Forever field also includes HIGHLAND SKY, a 7-year-old veteran who was Grade 1-placed in his finer days, but may need a start off a September layoff for a patient barn; CULLUM ROAD, a barn transfer from Mike Maker to Ignacio Correas on a 7-race losing streak; and SAND DANCER, who has been winless in his last 9 starts. JUST WHISTLE is entered main-track only and would join WAR OF WILL as the horses to beat if the Sunshine Forever is washed off the grass.

Most Certain Exotics Contender: HALLADAY is 11-for-11 in the superfecta lifetime and should get a great trip on or near the lead.

​Best Longshot Exotics Contender: AQUAPHOBIA has improved in 2 starts since being claimed by Mike Maker. We've seen these veteran, high-dollar pick-ups for the barn do great things over the years in the stakes ranks. This is a well-bred listed stakes winner capable off his last couple of starts.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll): $40 win HAWKISH. $15 exacta-key box HAWKISH with HALLADAY and SOCIAL PARANOIA ($60).
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Old 05-09-2020, 07:07 AM
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My Gulfstream Saturday Rainbow 6 Mandatory Payout Picks

May 7, 2020 | By Brian Nadeau

Big doings at Gulfstream Park this Saturday, with a mandatory Rainbow 6 payoff on-tap, where an estimated pool of $6 million is anticipated. With that being said, let’s take a look at the sequence and hash out some suggested tickets.

*** Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 48 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 4pm Friday for an update, as well as on Twitter. ***

Race 7 (3:19 ET): 3f ALW at 5 furlongs (turf)

The opening leg of the sequence has a bit of everything, as there’s some speed, some stalkers, and some closers, so it looks like a fair fight on paper, and I’ll side with #10 COMPENSATE, who got back to the turf last time and was a sharp 2nd with a big figure (for this group), and her stalking style will get her first run too. The speed of #5 FOOLISH HUMOR and #3 FAST SCENE must be respected, and they are only going 5Fs too, but I still wonder if it cancels each other out, though both have solid form and still need to be used on the top line. Lastly, I’ll go with #9 ENVIED, who may need a collapse, but closed nicely to be 3rd last time and now goes second-off the layoff, so she should be tighter too.

Pk4 A horses: 10,9,5,3 (listed in order of preference)

An October layoff, facing winners, and trying turf might be too much for #1 AMERICAN TAP, but she sure looked good when last seen winning on the Tapeta at Woodbine, so she won’t have to freak to be able to play with this group for newly minted Hall of Fame trainer Casse. I have to think a sharp 5Fs off an October layoff will be a bit much for Euro invader #2 AFFICIONADO, but she had some solid form across the pond, and now add Lasix, and Biancone does good work with these types, so she needs to be used as at least a supporting actress.

Pk4 B horses: 1,2
Potential B add ins: NONE

Race 8: 3up N2L at 6 furlongs

It’s never a bad thing to have a single in an expansive sequence and we have one here in #5 LOUIE’S KINGDOM, who goes off the re-claim for Rivelli (43% at the claim box), lures Irad, and was a very fast 4th (for this group) against much better when last seen on the dirt. Couple all that with an extremely meek group of opposition, and things look very promising.

Pk4 A horses: 5

We’ll have to get creative to use our three backups, as a conventional play would be too expensive, so take note below of the “super A’s” that I’ll be using. With that being said, the drop in class for #7 ASSERTIKO and #2 HARPER GO LUCKY should help to wake both up, while the speed of #3 CAT GONE QUICK might have him as a Lone F, while the good form and figures of #4 WAR ACT give him a puncher’s chance as well.

Pk4 B horses: 7,2,3,4

*** Super A’s for use with the R8 B backups ***
R7: 10,9,5,4
R9: 6,9,11
R10: 1,8,6
R11: 3
R12: 6,3

Potential B add ins: NONE

Race 9: 4up The Sunshine Forever at 1 1/16 miles (turf)

This race looks like it goes through the Pletcher pair of #6 HALLADAY and #9 SOCIAL PARANOIA, and while I like the former and his tactical speed and good post better than the latter, I won’t try to split them and will use them both equally. I’ll also use #11 ADMISSION OFFICE, who enters off a big figure 2nd in a local GII and hasn’t been in this light on the class scale in ages, though I worry about his lack of early speed.

Pk4 A horses: 6,9,11

There’s no doubt #7 HAWKISH is as talented as anyone here, but an October layoff, off what was a real dud too, says something might have been amiss, so I’ll take more of a wait and see approach today and only use him as a backup.

Pk4 B horses: 7
Potential B add ins: #4 Aquaphobia, #3 El Tormenta

Race 10: 4up AOC (25k/N1X) at 1-mile (turf)

An inside post, going second-off the layoff, and a much-improved return says #1 COUNTER OFFER is poised for a huge run today, so he gets the upset call in what could be a separator kind of race. The speed and breakthrough MSW win that #8 GRAY’S FABLE brings to the table says he can handle the class rise, especially since he’s got a ton of upside off just five lifetime starts. Clearly #6 BATTLE OF BLENHEIM is a major player, but I would be careful leaning too heavily on him, since he basically runs the same race every time and has no reason to improve today, though that still might be good enough here. The post can’t be worse for #11 SHOOTIN THE BREEZE, but his return behind potential superstar Golden Tapit was strong, and he won’t have to move forward all the much to win this, so I’ll use him, albeit a bit begrudgingly.

Pk4 A horses: 1,8,6,11

The wildcard is #5 HARBOUR MASTER, who hasn’t run since a fast 5th in a Del Mar AOC in November or Cassidy and is now with Biancone, but that run makes you take notice, and he’s tactical too, so if he’s ready he’s got a chance against this kind.

Pk4 B horses: 5
Potential B add ins: #9 Honey Won’t

Race 11: 3up Florida-bred AOC (16k/N1X) at 6 furlongs

A potential suicidal speed duel between #4 I’LL FIGHT DEMPSEY and #11 Whiskey Sunrise, and maybe #7 Hauntedbythemusic and #10 More Than Striking, could set this up for an off-the-pace type to come along and pick up the pieces. Which makes #3 TAP IT TO WIN my top pick, since finally gets back to sprinting, has been tearing it up in the morning for his first start since October, should settle just off the speed, and is another who has never been in with restricted company before. I think you have to use ‘Dempsey, since he’s never run against state breds and might simply be too fast for these on the class drop and cutback, but yikes, he’ll have to earn it here, at an underlaid price too.

Pk4 A horses: 3,4

It looks like #5 R MERCEDES BOY got back untracked last time, and he’s got a stalking gear too, so if he can maintain that form, or move forward second-off the layoff, he’s going to have a big say in the lane if things melt down.

Pk4 B horses: 5
Potential B add ins: #11 Whiskey Sunrise, #8 Cryogenic

Race 12: 3up SOC (10k/8k) at 1-mile

They don’t make it easy, do they? The finale is as much about who can’t win as it is who can, since there’s only a few throwouts, while the rest are seemingly within a length or two of each other on paper. I’ve been relatively condensed leading up to this point, which was by design, since I think this is the definition of a spread race, and I want to be as deep as I want to be. With that being said, the final number rests at eight; #6 THE QUEEN JULES, #3 PEPPI THE HUNTER, #9 DEXTER ROAD, #4 AREYOUTALKINGTOME, #2 TRAPPEZOID, #10 STARSHIP APOLLO, #8 DISCREET HEAT, and #1 THE ROBERT. Getting back to the turf and luring Irad makes ‘Jules appealing, as he aired the last time on the main, and while ‘Hunter is clearly the horse to beat, I just have to think regression is coming since he’s off the claim from Joseph and Calabrese and now with 0-for-1 trainer Morici.

Pk4 A horses: 6,3,9,4,2,10,8,1

There won’t be any backups, since I’ve used anyone I think can win on the A-line, and therefore the rest are a decided cut below.

Pk4 B horses: NONE
Potential B add ins: #5 Il Faraone

The suggested tickets:

Main Ticket: 10,9,5,3 with 5 with 6,9,11 with 1,8,6,11 with 3,4 with 6,3,9,4,2,10,8,1 = $153.60
Race 7 B Backup: 1,2 with 5 with 6,9,11 with 1,8,6,11 with 3,4 with 6,3,9,4,2,10,8,1 = $76.80
Race 8 B Backup: 10,9,5,3 with 7,2,3,4 with 6,9,11 with 1,8,6 with 3 with 6,3 = $57.60
Race 9 B Backup: 10,9,5,3 with 5 with 7 with 1,8,6,11 with 3,4 with 6,3,9,4,2,10,8,1 = $51.20
Race 10 B Backup: 10,9,5,3 with 5 with 6,9,11 with 5 with 3,4 with 6,3,9,4,2,10,8,1 = $38.40
Race 11 B Backup: 10,9,5,3 with 5 with 6,9,11 with 1,8,6,11 with 5 with 6,3,9,4,2,10,8,1 = $76.80
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Old 05-09-2020, 07:10 AM
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Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #3
Picks Notes
#7 Honest to Goodness Turf runner has been facing better on the grass and running quite well while doing it, shows a good 2nd from just two dirt starts, and catches a field there for the taking; look out.
#3 Zitman The chalk has the best form here and will be running on late, but yikes, those losses are adding up and now stand at nine in a row, so taking a short price isn't ideal; trying to beat.
#8 The Stifler Logical sort was all-out to beat 'Zit last time, so clearly he's capable, but this wide draw won't help, not to mention some serious speed down on the rail won't either; mixed signals.
Race Summary The price should be right on the 7, and taking a fresh new face in a spot like this seems like a prudent move, so give him a look in all the slots, and especially the early Pk5 as well, since the 3 and 8 will likely dominate the betting, even though the pick has a huge chance if he can bring his form on the green stuff over the dirt.

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #8
Picks Notes
#3 Domain Longshot had a wide trip the entire way last time yet held nicely to be within 4 lengths off today's favorite, drew much better here, can get first run off the speed, and will be totally ignored at the tote as well; bombs away.
#9 Fast Fire Aforementioned favorite looked good winning last time at this trip and should have plenty of speed to aid his stretch running style, but this wide draw did him no favors, and he'll be overbet as well; plenty scary, but no lock.
#4 Projected Class riser stalked the pace then kicked clear over lesser last time, but the run fits with these on paper, though note he was only going a mile, so how he handles the extra 3 furlongs here will be the big question; in the mix.
Race Summary The risk-reward will be there on the 3, and it's not like he's got 10 lengths to make up on the favorite, even though the betting public will see it that way, so give him a look in all the slots, and in the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since a win would completely blow up both sequences.

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #10
Picks Notes
#3 Etelka Intriguing miss was a very solid and close 6th against MSW does on debut then didn't fire on the dirt last time, and now that she's back on the grass, at a reduced level too, says she may be ready to fire a big shot; can surprise.
#5 Dreaming of Paris MSW dropper will be bet off the board for a potent Stidham barn, and this is the biggest drop in racing, but it's a bit of a worry she's now in for a tag, off just three starts, two of which weren't all that bad either; backwheel time.
#7 Natoma Wilkes charge is another who will like getting back to the turf, as the dirt run last time was poor and her two turf runs give her a big shot here, so it that dismal effort didn't knock her for a loop, she's a threat in here; using.
Race Summary You're going to get fair value on the 3, and if you judge her solely off the turf run then she has a big chance, and she also will likely be tighter for this than she was that day too, so give her a look in all the slots, and especially to end the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since budget players will be singling the 5, even though she gives off some negative vibes on the class drop.
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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park - Race #4
Picks Notes
#2 Dana Grace Was away very slowly from a wide draw in that last one before using her natural pace to improve position. All things considered, she didn't have an easy go and still ran on well. She draws much better today and might get a cozier trip.
#6 Sand Drift Tends to get bet and has now lost five in a row at prices of 2/1, 5/2, 3/2, 1/1 and 4/5. Not sure how low she'll go today, but she doesn't finish her races with a ton of punch and hasn't really threatened near the wire in the last two.
#11 Money Factor Blinkers come off for this one, and she's moving into a conditioned $16,000 race after trying straight $35,000 company last out and has a license to wake up against softer.
Race Summary Dana Grace had a much trickier trip than it appears on paper in her last one, and I'm hopeful that the significantly better post draw and a better break will lead to a cleaner run of things today.

Gulfstream Park - Race #9
Picks Notes
#10 Highland Sky Has been doing his work at trips much longer than this, but he does own a 6/3-0-2 slate at this distance further back in his form. He appears to be working forwardly enough for this comeback run, and he might be ready to roll at a price.
#11 Admission Office The one to beat after giving Zulu Alpha more trouble than he expected last time out. If he runs back to that race, the rest run for second.
#4 Aquaphobia Was a bit flat late in New Orleans, but that was a pretty decent race that had a little bit of depth to it, and he can land a share with these.
Race Summary This is a really deep race where I could make a solid case for about nine of them. #12 War of Will, #6 Halladay and #9 Social Paranoia are obvious factors, too.

Gulfstream Park - Race #1
Picks Notes
#3 Barbie's King Very rare for me to jump on an 0-for-19 maiden, but from a risk vs. reward perspective, he owns some recent races that might win this, and he's going to be a price. I'll try to get him in with the #2 and #9.
#2 Mayito Looks like the one to beat, but he has come up short by a fairly significant margin at 9/5 and 7/5 in his two most recent tries, and there are more than a couple of players in here with a ceiling high enough to jump up and beat him.
#9 Traffic Trouble Reliable type figures to show up again here, and but I still like him better underneath than as a win candidate.
Race Summary Barbie's King has run out of excuses after 19 starts with maidens, but his two- and three-back runs really weren't all bad, and they'd be competitive today if he can repeat them.
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Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Remington Park - Race #4
Picks Notes
#9 Peves Blue Duck Was 4th in a stakes race last out and can make a solid run from the outside; has been in the mix in all three races and is a big threat to get his 2nd win.
#8 Heza Big Scoop Well-bred and well-connected and has some good works for his debut; would not be a surprise if he gets it done at 1st asking.
#2 I Like Me Better Hopped at the start and finished 7th in a trial in his 2nd start after breaking his maiden on his 1st attempt; capable of a big effort here.
Race Summary Peves Blue Duck ran well in a stakes race last out and won't have to improve much to be the one to beat; being away from traffic in the No. 9 post could help.

Remington Park - Race #8
Picks Notes
#3 Mylestone Made a solid late move and just missed in his debut; can get the prize with a clean trip.
#4 Really a Dynasty Lost by a nose in a futurity trial and gave a good effort in both career starts; super quick and could be the one to catch.
#9 Eyes On the Wagon Was a clear winner 1st time out and fought his way through a stout headwind at 1st asking; capable of another big run.
Race Summary Mylestone just missed 1st out and can be even more of a factor with a better break; one to beat.

Remington Park - Race #9
Picks Notes
#3 Jessa Bit of Candy Was 2nd as the favorite in both starts, once in a maiden race and once in a futurity trial; will deserve the support he gets and likely will not disappoint.
#9 Flashing My Pjs Has trained well for her 1st attempt and looks ready to make a good run; will be tough if she has an uneventful trip.
#2 Celtic Pagentry Improved a bunch in his 2nd start despite breaking in an being disqualified; showed talent despite the trouble and can be a factor with a straight run down the strip.
Race Summary Jessa Bit of Candy was very close in both starts and should be able to get a good run vs. these; has a good chance for his 1st win.
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Old 05-09-2020, 08:33 AM
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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Remington Park
PURCHASE
Remington Park - Race 2

Exacta / Trifecta (.50 Cent Minimum) / Superfecta (.10 Cent Minimum) Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4) (.50 cent Minimum)


Trial • 350 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 82 • Purse: $15,000 • Post: 6:27P
QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR TWO YEAR OLDS THAT WERE NOMINATED AND REMAIN ELIGIBLE.
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * KOOL MAN SUCCESS: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. JESS A CANDY ROGUE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. PEVES BIG HOSS: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
3
KOOL MAN SUCCESS
8/1

9/2
1
JESS A CANDY ROGUE
5/2

9/2
9
PEVES BIG HOSS
5/1

6/1




P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
1
JESS A CANDY ROGUE
1

5/2
Average
82

61

0.0

0.0

0.0
2
TRULIE SATISFEYEN
2

15/1
Slow
0

0

0.0

0.0

0.0
3
KOOL MAN SUCCESS
3

8/1
Average/Trouble-prone
71

67

0.0

0.0

0.0
4
CONSPICUOUSLY SWEET
4

6/1
Fast/Trouble-prone
0

0

3.0

0.0

0.0
7
JESS THE LADY
7

12/1
Average
0

0

5.9

0.0

0.0
8
EYESA TIMBER
8

8/1
Fast
61

56

0.0

0.0

0.0
9
PEVES BIG HOSS
9

5/1
Fast
71

62

0.0

0.0

0.0








Unknown Running Style: SHESA MS PERRY (15/1) [Jockey: Dominguez Jonathan - Trainer: Hunt Charlton], SOVERYNNE (4/1) [Jockey: Ramirez Ricky - Trainer: Wood G Blane].
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Old 05-09-2020, 08:33 AM
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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)
PURCHASE
Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse) - Race 9

$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta $1 Superfecta (.10 cent minimum wager)


Handicap Stakes • 350 Yards • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 93 • Purse: $30,000 • Post: 9:44P
QUARTER HORSE 350Y, LA PACIFICA H. - FILLIES, THREE YEARS OLD.
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * SOUTHERN WAGON: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. TERRA FIRE: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. ONE SWEET CHANGE: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. SUITE EXPECTATIONS: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. ALL PRETTIED UP: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
6
SOUTHERN WAGON
2/1

5/1
2
TERRA FIRE
6/1

7/1
5
ONE SWEET CHANGE
10/1

7/1
4
SUITE EXPECTATIONS
3/1

8/1
1
ALL PRETTIED UP
10/1

9/1




P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
1
ALL PRETTIED UP
1

10/1
Average/Trouble-prone
88

92

5.0

0.0

0.0
2
TERRA FIRE
2

6/1
Fast
91

85

2.7

0.0

0.0
3
JAVELINA CANTINA
3

6/1
Average
89

82

4.4

0.0

0.0
4
SUITE EXPECTATIONS
4

3/1
Average/Trouble-prone
92

87

3.7

0.0

0.0
5
ONE SWEET CHANGE
5

10/1
Average
89

86

4.1

0.0

0.0
6
SOUTHERN WAGON
6

2/1
Average
94

94

4.7

0.0

0.0
7
FASHIN ICON
7

4/1
Average/Trouble-prone
88

85

5.3

0.0

0.0
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  #10  
Old 05-09-2020, 08:34 AM
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Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Tampa Bay Downs
PURCHASE

05/09/20, TAM, Race 6, 3.02 ET
05/09/20,TAM,6,1 1/16M [Turf] 1:39:03 CLAIMING. Purse $14,500. FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. Weight, 122 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race At A Mile Or Over Since April 9 Allowed 2 lbs. Such A Race Since March 9 Allowed 4 lbs. Claiming Price $10,000 (Races where entered for $8,000 or less not considered).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Flags WPC ROI *
100.00 1 Unabridged (IRE) 4-1 Wales G Ryan Derek S. W 34.00 1.23/$1
098.98 4 Colonels Daughter 5/2 Batista J A Avila Juan Carlos E 25.88 0.78/$1
097.86 10 Cocktail Skirt 6-1 Mena R Carrasco. Jr. Victor 30.77 1.25/$1
097.38 9 Elusive Ryder 10-1 Garcia J A Yanez Moises R. TF 25.88 0.78/$1
096.42 11 Lil Hooh's Hooh 6-1 Delgado D Ward Dennis 30.77 1.25/$1
095.86 8 I Dream of Lois 5-1 Lopez C C Swick Don SL 42.86 1.16/$1
095.61 6 Anditsafact 15-1 Gallardo A A Tomlinson Michael A. J 25.88 0.78/$1
095.30 2 Cholla 6-1 Mejia T B Hinsley David H. 25.88 0.78/$1
094.22 7 Crown of Joy 10-1 Garcia W A O'Connell Kathleen C 25.88 0.78/$1
093.87 12 Eyerish Inspired 8-1 Hernandez H Guciardo Kathleen A. 30.77 1.25/$1
093.65 14 Mandeville 20-1 Allen. Jr. R D Rice Kevin 30.77 1.25/$1
092.36 3 Ashley's Rose 30-1 Leon J A Laurato Michael V. 25.88 0.78/$1
091.66 13 Lapulga 30-1 Rivera. Jr. J L Lorito Mario 30.77 1.25/$1
089.95 5 Thump(b-) 20-1 Hernandez H Swick Don 28.57 1.04/$1
* Top rated horse with "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - WPC 35.71, ROI 0.90/$1
If Race Is Off Turf
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Flags WPC ROI *
100.00 1 Unabridged (IRE) 4-1 Wales G Ryan Derek S. W 33.04 1.05/$1
098.69 4 Colonels Daughter 5/2 Batista J A Avila Juan Carlos E 38.89 1.38/$1
098.42 9 Elusive Ryder 10-1 Garcia J A Yanez Moises R. F 37.84 1.09/$1
097.79 8 I Dream of Lois 5-1 Lopez C C Swick Don SL 37.84 1.09/$1
097.40 10 Cocktail Skirt 6-1 Mena R Carrasco. Jr. Victor T 37.84 1.09/$1
096.53 6 Anditsafact 15-1 Gallardo A A Tomlinson Michael A. J 37.84 1.09/$1
095.83 2 Cholla 6-1 Mejia T B Hinsley David H. 37.84 1.09/$1
095.75 11 Lil Hooh's Hooh 6-1 Delgado D Ward Dennis 38.89 1.38/$1
094.74 14 Mandeville 20-1 Allen. Jr. R D Rice Kevin 37.84 1.09/$1
094.72 12 Eyerish Inspired 8-1 Hernandez H Guciardo Kathleen A. 38.89 1.38/$1
093.53 7 Crown of Joy 10-1 Garcia W A O'Connell Kathleen C 38.89 1.38/$1
091.64 5 Thump(b-) 20-1 Hernandez H Swick Don 37.84 1.09/$1
091.59 13 Lapulga 30-1 Rivera. Jr. J L Lorito Mario 38.89 1.38/$1
091.00 3 Ashley's Rose 30-1 Leon J A Laurato Michael V. 38.89 1.38/$1
* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 33.96, ROI 0.86/$1
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Old 05-09-2020, 08:34 AM
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Gulfstream Park
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 11 - Optional Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $41000 Class Rating: 96

FOR STATE BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $16,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE APRIL 9 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 11 WHISKEY SUNRISE 8/1

# 7 HAUNTEDBYTHEMUSIC 6/1

# 8 CRYOGENIC 10/1

WHISKEY SUNRISE has a decent shot to take this race especially at such a decent 8/1. Has been running solidly in races of this distance, going 1 for 2 under similar conditions. One of the most respectable win percentages between this jock and conditioner make this gelding dangerous. HAUNTEDBYTHEMUSIC - Is difficult not to consider based on speed figs which have been very good - 93 avg - of late. The Lasix change (with second time Lasix) may spark a reversal of fortune for this colt. CRYOGENIC - Should keep the strong string of finishes intact this time out. With a competitive 92 speed figure last time out, will definitely be a factor in this contest.
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Old 05-09-2020, 08:35 AM
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Maiden - 300y on the Dirt. Purse: $9000 Class Rating: 78

QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 3 TERRIFIC TEMPER 4/1

# 7 BETSY VISTA JQM 4/1

# 2 LETHAL DREAM 8/1

I've got to go with TERRIFIC TEMPER. The return on investment has been excellent for this sire with first time runners. Odell has put up very strong returns (+9 return on investment ) with first asking starters. She looks solid in this spot and I expect will be on the front end or close at the halfway point. LETHAL DREAM - Has been running admirably lately and will probably be up on the front end early on. Very strong jockey with handler figures make this horse a strong betting selection.
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Old 05-09-2020, 08:35 AM
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
PURCHASE

Bar

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #8 - Post: 4:06pm - Starter Allowance - 11.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $20,500 Class Rating: 99

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#8 BOURBON EXTENSION (ML=5/1)
#4 PROJECTED (GB) (ML=4/1)
#2 ON A SPREE (ML=5/1)
#5 AMERICANDY (ML=6/1)
#1 JUAN PABLO (ML=20/1)


BOURBON EXTENSION - You'll be making money left and right by turning your betting money onto this jock/handler combination. This gelding is clearly on the improve with speed ratings of 92, 95, 101 last three out. PROJECTED (GB) - Kenneally has a very strong win pct in turf routes. This gelding should be fit and ready to go. When I handicap a turf race, I think sometimes class ratings are more important than speed figs. This beautiful animal has the highest average class in the entire field. ON A SPREE - After the race aboard this horse on April 11th, the jock is going to be in tune with the gelding much better. I like to bet on this handicapping angle, a thoroughbred coming back off a good outing within the last month or so. AMERICANDY - Last ran at Tampa Bay Downs and finished fourth. Reviewing his PP data, I see he was close at the end, within five of the winner. Three consecutive improved Equibase speed figures (85-90-92) make this horse a solid contender. JUAN PABLO - Really have to figure this race horse is going to be close at the wire.

Vulnerable Contenders: #9 FAST FIRE (ML=7/2), #10 DAZZLING TRUTHS (ML=6/1),

FAST FIRE - You should normally bet against morning-line favorites that haven't raced or show no activity in the morning over the last three weeks. Last effort was too nice. Not too far of a reach to expect a 'performance bounce' today. DAZZLING TRUTHS - Hard to support any horse with dropping Equibase speed figures of 97/92/89.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - PROJECTED (GB) - Earnings per start is one measure of class I like to check out. This racer is tops in the field and has a good shot to beat this crew.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Put your money on #8 BOURBON EXTENSION on the nose if you can get odds of 6/1 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [1,8]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
[2,4,8] with [1,2,4,5,8] with [1,2,4,5,8] Total Cost: $36

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
[4,8] with [2,4,8] with [1,2,4,5,8] with [1,2,4,5,8] Total Cost: $24

SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:
[2,4,8] with [1,2,4,5,8] with [1,2,4,5,8] with [1,2,4,5,8] with [1,2,4,5,8] Total Cost: $72
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Old 05-09-2020, 08:35 AM
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PURCHASE

05/09/20, GP, Race 8, 4.27 ET
05/09/20,GP,8,6F [Dirt] 1:08:01 CLAIMING. Purse $20,000 (includes up to $3,000 FHBPA-FOA - FHBPA Florida Owners Awards). FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. Three Year Olds, 120 lbs.; Older, 125 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Since April 9 Allowed 2 lbs. Claiming Price $16,000 (Races Where Entered For $12,500 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Flags WPC ROI *
100.00 8 Reservenotattained(b+) 8-1 Saez L Yates Michael FEW 35.10 1.31/$1
095.84 5 Louie's Kingdom 7/5 Ortiz. Jr. I Rivelli Larry JSL 32.38 1.05/$1
094.13 3 Cat Gone Quick 8-1 Burgos A Pita Daniel 39.27 1.38/$1
093.82 2 Harper Go Lucky 10-1 Meneses M Collazo Henry 39.27 1.38/$1
093.52 7 Assertiko(b+) 9/2 Vasquez M A Spatz Ronald B. 39.27 1.38/$1
093.16 9 Road to Peace(b+) 6-1 Reyes L R Mastronardi. Jr. Nick 26.81 1.09/$1
090.64 4 War Act 10-1 Trejos J Cioffi Antonio C 35.10 1.31/$1
090.55 1 Sarasota Boy 20-1 Davis D Acker Scott D. 39.27 1.38/$1
089.06 6 Chinomado 15-1 Olsson F Mejia Jaime T 35.10 1.31/$1
* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 31.84, ROI 1.08/$1
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Old 05-09-2020, 08:37 AM
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Paul Leiner

Horse Picks & UFC 5/9

Sat May 09, 2020 7:25 am
A Beautiful Day and Jeeker Joe both won yesterday, we hit a $23.80 exacta as well. Here's a UFC pick and a couple races. Goodluck

100* Carla Esparza -160 (saw -145 in a couple spots as well)

Gulfstream Race 1
#5 Jack Beanstalk $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 5-2-9

Gulfstream Race 9
#3 El Tormenta $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 3-9-11
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  #16  
Old 05-09-2020, 11:08 AM
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Jeff Siegel's Gulfstream Park Wagering Strategies - 5/9/20

May 9, 2020

Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Gulfstream Park
Saturday, May 9, 2020
*

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
*
*
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
*
The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
*
*

RACE 1: Post 12:45 ET. Grade: C
Use: 2-Mayito; 5-Jack Beanstalk; 9-Traffic Trouble; 10-Sweet Giant

Forecast: Mayito has been a beaten favorite vs. slightly tougher maiden-claiming foes in his last pair, but he has numbers that are par for this level and with this drop to the bottom-rung the S. Joseph Jr.,-trained gelding is certain to leave as the public choice once again. However, in each of his five career starts, the son of Declaration of War has found himself within range in the final furlong but just doesn’t seem capable of punching it in under pressure, thus making him difficult to trust. Maybe against this group he’ll find his confidence but while we’ll include him in our rolling exotics he hardly qualifies as a solid pick. Jack Beanstalk is another money-burner, having failed as the chalk in each of his last three starts. The N. Casse-trained gelding will be forwardly placed throughout, and with L. Saez staying aboard he has to be considered a contender at 6-1 on the morning. Sweet Giant and Traffic Trouble, two-three finishers vs. similar over this course and distance last month, are solid fits on speed figures and both have a right to be factors. ‘Giant was 68-1 when producing a form reversal despite a poor draw and while stuck outside again the son of Giant’s Causeway won’t have to improve much to win. The latter picks up I. Ortiz, Jr. and will be running on late. In a race that looks quite chaotic, we’ll go four deep in our rolling exotics while otherwise sitting it out.
*
*
RACE 2: Post 1:15 ET. Grade: B
Use: 4-Breakthrough; 7-Full Send; 8-Hyperfocus

Forecast: Maiden 2-year-olds meet over four and one-half furlongs with top stables (Pletcher, Ward, etc.) represented by runners with credentials to win right now. Full Send is quite intriguing as a debut runner bred to be very quick (Cajun Breeze) and from an excellent barn whose juveniles have run very well so far this season. With a bullet three-furlong work last month (:35 3/5, fastest of 38), this homebred speedster looks cranked up and ready to fire while being ridden by the barn’s “go-to” jockey M. Vasquez. There are a few others in here who look just as dangerous but at 6-1 on the morning line we’ll put the M. Yates-trained colt on top. Breakthrough is the first starter from the first crop of Nyquist and has done some good work in the a.m. that should have him plenty fit. The W. Ward babies haven’t lived up to expectations so far this season but at 9/5 on the morning line this $330,000 yearling purchase is certain to get plenty of play. Hyperfocus has a bullet half-mile drill at Palm Beach Downs last month (:48 2/5, fastest of 20) that catches the eye and is comfortably drawn outside while landing I. Ortiz, Jr. The son of Constitution is bred to more of a distance type than a pure sprinter but the barn hits at a strong 21% with first-time time starters and this colt is likely to show plenty of run.
*
*
RACE 3: Post 1:45 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 10-Midnight Marvel; 11-Dur a Cuire; 12-Cat Lady

Forecast: Cat Lady is listed as the 8/5 morning line favorite and has much in her favor except an extreme outside post position that she’ll have to deal with. Originally a $300,000 yearling, the daughter of Kitten’s Joy is being culled from the stable while dropping for the first time into a maiden $40,000 affair despite having decent numbers and finishing a good second vs. maiden-special-weight company two runs back. She really has little to beat here, and with the switch to I. Ortiz, Jr. the T. Pletcher-trained filly is the deserved top pick, her poor draw notwithstanding. Dur a Cuire, drawing just inside the favorite in the 11-post and showing a similar maiden-to-maiden claiming class drop, may be worth including as a back-up or a saver. She’s fairly competitive on numbers after finishing third vs. tougher last time out and, and because she brought only $30,000 at auction as a yearling her class drop is less troubling. She’s run well both on the lead or from far off the pace, so C. Landeros has the option to assess and then adjust to the race flow. Midnight Marvel shows up in a seller for the first time – always a good long shot angle - and had a decent sort of breeze around dogs on grass since being pulled up at the start last month. Hard to say if she can run, but at 15-1 she’s worth using on a few tickets as blow out possibility.
*
*
RACE 4: Post 2:15 ET. Grade: C
Use: 1-Algodonal; 2-Dana Grace; 6-Sand Drift; 10-Get Rewarded

Forecast: Here’s a difficult $16,000 grass grab bag for older fillies and mares requiring a substantial spread in rolling exotic play. Sand Drift, in the frame in all of her recent outings and a two-time winner over the local lawn, has winning connections and should fire her best shot in her first outing in three months for a barn that has superior stats with layoff runners. She should have every chance to wear down the speed from her usual second flight, stalking position. Algodonal is guaranteed a good ground-saving trip from her rail draw and can be effective as the controlling speed or from a stalking position. Solid at this level and switching to the barn’s main jockey E. Jaramillo, the daughter of Afleet Alex has recent numbers that are better than par for this level and after a month off should be set for a top effort. Get Rewarded looked pretty good winning over this course and distance from a lesser group last month and with another forward move today the daughter of Get Stormy could be competitive. At 8-1 on the morning line, she’s worth including somewhere. Dana Grace was 41-1 when turning in a form reversal to be second while more than three clear of the rest and earning a career top speed figure in the process last month. Up a notch in class but certainly not out of element, the daughter of Mucho Macho Man may have found a home on grass.
*
*
RACE 5: Post 2:46 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 5-Caepline; 6-Nenita

Forecast: This bottom rung maiden $10,000 claiming sprint for fillies and mares has very little in it. Ninita is a big price on the morning line (12-1) and is worth a close look if she leaves at close to that number. She has the route-to-sprint angle that we like plus a sprint speed figure over this track and distance earlier this year that would probably be good enough to win. She gets in with a feather thanks to the presence of seven-pound bug boy G. A. Martinez and is wheeled back on short rest by a barn that does this fairly frequently. Capeline drops significantly in class and is another sporting the route-to-sprint angle while trying dirt for the first time. She did flash some early speed last time out and could stick much better under these conditions. These are the two we’ll prefer but in a race like this nothing would surprise us.
*
*
RACE 6: Post 3:17 ET. Grade: B-
Use:3-Call Curt; 4-Riggins; 11-Reconvene

Forecast: This appears to be a stronger than par maiden $65,000 claimer for 3-year-olds over a mile on turf with several lightly-raced contenders appearing capable of stepping forward. Riggins was given a run in his debut vs. much tougher maiden special weight company and this class drop combined with the switch to I. Ortiz, Jr. gives reason to believe that today he’ll be much more serious. The son of Liam’s Map should settle somewhere in mid-pack and then have his chance from the quarter pole home. Even when finishing a non-threatening eighth, the T. Pletcher-trained gelding earned a speed figure that puts him right in the hunt at this level. Reconvene performed admirably when stalking a hot pace, opening up on the turn, and then feeling the effects of the quick early fractions while weakening late to be third in a solid debut last month. The B. Perkins, Jr.-trained son of Summer Front retains E. Jaramillo and with a softer early pace today he should remain a strong factor every step of the way. Call Curt has the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out pattern after landing in the frame in a pair of turf sprints to begin his career. Bred to get the mile (Sky Mesa from a Maria’s Mon mare), the J. Avila-trained gelding retains E. Zayas, has rising speed figures, and is comfortably drawn toward the inside. He projects to be comfortably placed on or near the lead throughout.
*
*
RACE 7: Post 3:49 ET. Grade: B
Use: 3-Fast Scene; 9-Envied; 10-Compensate

Forecast: Fast Scene makes her first start since last October but because she won her debut we know she can fire fresh, and after a series of strong workouts at Tampa Bay Downs she vans down for this open allowance grass sprint for 3-year-old fillies. A two-time stakes winner during a highly productive juvenile campaign, the T. Hamm-trained daughter of Fast Anna gets a favorable pace scenario that projects her as the controlling speed. There’s value at her morning line of 3-1 if you can get it. Envied has the opposite style – she’s a prototype late-running sprinter – and will need a faster-than-par early pace to aid her closing kick. If ‘Scene fails to see out the trip she’s the most likely to pick her up.Compensate is stuck outside but has improving numbers and finished a solid second in an overnight stakes over this course and distance in her most recent start. She switches to L. Saez and appears to have found her niche as a grass sprinter.
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RACE 8: Post 4:27 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 3-Cat Gone Quick; 5-Louie’s Kingdom

Forecast: Mixed signals here. Louie’s Kingdom was claimed back – always a good sign – by trainer L. Rivelli for $30,000 in early February but has been off for more than three months – not a good sign – while returning in a $16,000 restricted (nw-3) sprint for older horses. A repeat of his nice win over this track and distance in late December is good enough to beat this field, but with this type of shaky pattern we’re not really sure what we’re going to get. On the positive side, the son of Animal Kingdom attracts I. Ortiz, Jr. for a stable that has sensational stats with the first-off-the-claim angle. Cat Gone Quick earned a career top speed figure when graduating vs. soft maiden $12,500 foes last time out while on the pace throughout. He’ll need another forward move to be competitive on the raise, but the son of Gone Astray acts like a progressive type and could be dangerous right back.
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RACE 9: Post 4:59 ET. Grade: B
Use: 6-Halladay; 7-Hawkish; 9-Social Paranoia; 11-Admissions Office

Forecast: Halladay returns to the stakes ranks after a confidence-building win in an overnight allowance race that produced a career top speed figure. The T. Pletcher-trained colt does his best as the controlling but can stalk and pounce as well, and in a race that projects to a have moderate early fractions the son of War Front should draft into an ideal spot and be well-positioned for another major effort. He’s unbeaten in two starts over the local lawn and has the makings of a highly-productive four-year-old. Pletcher’s “other horse” is Social Paranoia, who seeks his third straight score and likewise is fresh from earning a career top speed figure in his late-charging score in the Appleton S.-G3 in late March. Similar to Halladay, he’s perfect over the local lawn (two-for-two) and with good racing luck this thoroughly genuine and consistent son of Street Boss will be heard from in the final furlong. Admissions Office is a deep closer that might find this distance a tad sharp, though there’s nothing wrong with his record at a mile and one-sixteenth (first, second, third, in three starts). He’s reunited with J. Rosario, who was aboard this son of Point of Entry in his last win more than a year ago. Hawkish (10-1) should be included somewhere on your ticket based on price considerations. Capable of firing a big shot fresh, training very well for his comeback, and with numbers that put him in the hunt, the son of Artie Schiller likes the local lawn and may at least get a piece of it.
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RACE 10: Post 5:30 ET. Grade: B
Use: 6-Battle of Blenheim; 9-Honey Won’t; 11-Shootin the Breeze

Forecast: Battle of Blenheim returns to his claim level after a series of good races vs. tougher, and if he comes close to repeating any one of several of his recent outings the tough-as-nails gelding should be hard to beat at 2-1 on the morning line. Most effective on the front end but having the ability to settle behind the leaders and make a run if need be, the son of War Front is reunited with I. Ortiz, Jr., who has won twice on him in the past, and with a bullet half mile breeze (:47 1/5, fastest of 37) just six days ago, this M. Maker-trained 6-year-old is the logical top pick. The late-running Honey Won’t, sixth in the same race Battle of Blenheim just finished second in, may improve if the pace turns up faster than normal. A two-time winner over the Gulfstream Park turf course, the W. Mott-trained son of Soldat switches to L. Saez and is fairly priced at 4-1 on the morning line. Shootin the Breeze, second off a layoff for G. Motion (strong stats with this angle), switches to J. Rosario, has a steady, healthy recent series of workouts, and seems set to produce another forward move. Based strictly on speed figures, the son of Hard Spun should be right there at 8-1 on the morning line.
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RACE 11: Post 6:01 ET. Grade: B
Use: 3-Tap It to Win; 4-I’ll Fight Dempsey; 5-R Mercedes Boy

Forecast: Tap It to Win launches a comeback for M. Casse and has trained like he’s fit and ready with successive bullet workouts, including a solo gate spin in 1:00 flat at Palm Meadows late last month. The son of Tapit was very impressive breaking his maiden at Saratoga with huge speed figure last August but then performed poorly in two subsequent stakes races and was stopped on. T. Gaffalione, who knows him well, returns and should have this well-regarded colt in a good stalking position, ready to pounce to just behind the speed types. At 5-1 on the morning line he’s worth a gamble. I’ll Fight Dempsey graduated at first asking in pleasing fashion over this track and distance in late February but then at 50 cents on the dollar when stretching out to seven furlongs weakened in the final stages and wound up fourth without any apparent excuse. Back at six furlongs today, the son of Into Mischief tuned up with a bullet half mile breeze (:49.1, fastest of six) nine days ago and certainly is eligible to bounce back for the high-percentage T. Pletcher/L. Saez team. R Mercedes Boy, second off a layoff for a high percentage barn, has speed figures that are all over the map, but if shows up with his “A” game he could have some say in the matter.
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RACE 12: Post 6:32 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Trappezoid; 3-Peppi the Hunter; 6-The Queens Jules

Forecast: The nightcap is a tough one-turn mile for starter optional claimers. Old-timer Peppi the Hunter is fresh from a sharp score with a big figure vs. $8,000 foes and is protected by his low profile connections. He’s 9/5 on the morning line, and while he’s certainly a major player right back we’re inclined to spread the race due to the negative barn and jockey switch. Trappezoid, a closing third in a similar spot last month, earned a number when winning a $12,500 claimer two runs back that charts very well here and in a race that should have enough early speed to compliment his closing kick the son of Trappe Shot appears the most dangerous of the late-runners. The Queens Jules returns to dirt, shortens to a mile, switches to I. Ortiz, Jr. and has back figures that put him right there. He should be part of the first flight throughout and seems capable of sticking around for a long while.
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