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Old 05-09-2021, 07:09 AM
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Horse Racing 5-9-21

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Old 05-09-2021, 07:10 AM
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Al Cimaglia: Hawthorne Pick 4 Analysis-$25,000 Guaranteed Pool

May 9, 2021 | By Al Cimaglia

Hawthorne Racecourse completes its first weekend of 2021 with a 12-race card. The feature goes in Race 8, an Open Trot with a $12,000 purse. The headliner from a betting standpoint is the 0.50 Late Pick 4 which starts in Race 9. The challenging sequence has a $25,000 guaranteed pool and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 9

2-Moment To Shine (10-1)-Comes off an even try at HoP on 5-4 and raced from the back. That could serve as a nice tune-up for tonight. Likes to race near the top of the stack and the Warren-Simmons combo could connect at a nice price.
3-Pretty Boy Shooter (12-1)-Price shot qualified at Springfield and went to the half in 56.1 and has 1 win 4 tries here. Stewart could work a stalking trip from this post and save some juice for the final quarter.
4-Reverend Scott (7-1)-Purchased for $8,500 in November and makes its 1st start for a smaller barn. Can pass horses down the lane and the 5-3 qualifier was fine. Should offer a solid price in race that looks like a coin toss.
7-Alwaysshowfaith (4-1)-Was only 1-9 last year at HoP but hit the board 5 times. Qualified staying in the 2-hole in 1.58 over a sloppy track and could be ready for a picture. Husted might leave some to get a good seat and then roll by off cover.

Race 10

2-Bombay Bobby (6-1)-Bobby is 1-4 at Haw, gets a good post draw for his style and may find this field to his liking. Should offer a square price plus this is the 1st time Seekman is between the pipes and that may help.
5-Burnin Rubber (7-1)-Was purchased for a modest $2,600 in the fall by Rutherford who owns and trains. Qualified here on 5-3 with a 56.2 back half and could contend if Sheehan does his part.
8-Mudville (5-1)-This is the 1st start for the Brink barn and he can send them out ready. Qualified with Leonard in the bike at Spr in a snappy 156.4. Ridge Warren gets the call as Leonard drives #9 for his dad.

Race 11

3-My Moriah (10-1)-First time starter qualified here on 5-3 and rolled the 2nd half 56.4 with a 27.2 last panel. Could be sitting on a big try and the price could be right.
7-Always B Mimi (4-1)-Another from the Brink barn, R Warren is between the pipes and has hit the board in 6 of 10 in Stickney with 1 picture. This post shouldn't hurt, can come off cover and does pass foes down the lane.
9-Dome With Kisses (5-1)-The 1st start for the Dillon barn came on 5-1 at MVR, went off at 6-1 in a 3-year-old stake race and suffered an interference break. From Indiana, to Ohio, now at Haw for a barn that has been rolling the past 30 days and the post makes the price. Lifetime record is not inspiring but should be able to compete with this crew and Wilfong can provide a smooth steer.

Race 12

2-Rock This Town (7/2)-Team Knox 3-year-old had breaking issues last year but stayed flat in a recent tune-up at Spr. Makes Haw debut and if it minds manners, has the speed to put this bunch away.
8-JK Newera (9/2)-Has hit the board in 3 of 4 starts at Haw in 2020 and this will be the 1st time Leonard takes a spin. Springfield qualifier on 4-27 was fine and could break its maiden if the pace is honest.

0.50 Late Pick 4

2,3,4,7/2,5,8/3,7,9/2,8
Total Bet=$36
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Old 05-09-2021, 07:12 AM
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Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies - 5/9/21

May 9, 2021

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.).
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.


Click Here to View Today's Santa Anita Workout Report


RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B-
Use: 4-Sunshine Babe; 5-Keep Dancing

Forecast: Keep Dancing improved dramatically in her first start since joining the K. Mulhall barn when finishing a good second in a similar maiden turf event last month. She gets an extra furlong to work with and won’t have impressive next-out winner Ultimate Hy to contend with today. She’s 7/5 on the morning line and may go lower. Sunshine Babe is another that will enjoy today’s nine furlong trip and with another forward move should at least be capable of completing the exacta. Toss in her in on a back-up ticket.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:38 PT Grade: B-
Use: 2-Finneus; 4-Street Art; 6-Bochombo

Forecast: This appears to be a stronger than par maiden special weight sprint for juvenile colts. We’ll pass the race while going three-deep in our rolling exotics. Bochombo has trained like a good colt for a barn that excels with two-year-old first-timers, and from his outside draw he should have clear sailing and every chance to perform up to expectations. Street Art, listed as the 9/5 morning line favorite, is another that has impressed in his a.m. trials. He hasn’t been asked to show his true speed yet but acts like a colt with plenty of zip. Today we’ll find out how much. Finneus has done all of his important work off the grid at San Luis Rey Downs so we’re flying blind, but with the presence of F. Prat in the saddle the son of Stay Thirsty must be well regarded. His works are quick and indicate he has at least some amount of speed.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:10 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Li’l Grazen; 3-Respectfully; 4-Eddie’s Dream

Forecast: Eddie’s Dream tackles seasoned foes in her first start since finishing a close third in the Golden State Juveniles Fillies Stakes last November, so this is a tough assignment for the daughter of Square Eddie. However, she has been impressive in the morning, is competitive on speed figures, gets Lasix for the first time, and certainly has shown some quality in three career outings. At 3-1 on the morning line, the B. Cecil-trained filly could very well out class this group. Respectfully, fastest on pure numbers and improving with every outing, is strictly the one to beat. She’s effective on any surface and projects to be on or near the lead throughout. Li’l Grazen just won from a similar Cal-bred optional claiming field in her first start since being claimed by P. Miller and is the logical morning line favorite at 6/5. The rail shouldn’t be an issue and if she runs back to her last start she’ll be difficult to beat. We’ll include all three in our rolling exotics and then press with Eddie’s Dream - the best price of the three – with a few extra tickets on top.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:43 PT Grade: C
Use: 2-You Wanna Ear Rip; 3-Tiz Wonderfully; 5-Mongolian Window

Forecast: Tiz Wonderfully just annihilated a similar field over this track and distance last month and is listed as the 6/5 morning line favorite to come back and do it again. If she can turn in two alike, she’ll probably repeat, but will offer little wagering value even if she does. You Wanna Ear Rip, third (beaten six lengths) by ‘Wonderfully last time out, today receives a nine pound break in the weights for her new connections so she certainly could close the gap while Mongolian Window, fourth in that same race, drops seven pounds and is another that could make a serious run for it. All three should be included in rolling exotic play in a race that we’ll otherwise pass.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:18 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Commander; 5-Kandarel; 7-Speedy Justice

Forecast: Speedy Justice, unbeaten in two turf sprints at Del Mar, the first one in November of 2019 and the most recent last summer, launches yet another comeback but according to his workouts the son of Dominus hasn’t lost a step. The B. Baffert-trained colt is listed as the 4/5 morning line favorite and will extend his winning streak to three if he runs back to either one of his first two outings. Commander was below his best when fifth as the favorite in a similar turf sprint here in late March, but the P. Miller-trained gelding has a legitimate look off his highly-rated score over this course and distance two runs back. He’ll be running on late. Kandarel has looked sharp in recent drills and probably is a bit better than his morning line of 8-1 would indicate. Toss him in on a ticket or two as a back-up or a saver.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:50 PT Grade: B-
Use: 5-Defense Wins; 7-Took Charge

Forecast: Took Charge, a first-time gelding, weakened after leading the way into the stretch when facing a tougher group in his local bow last month but with that race behind him combined with a class drop the P. Miller-trained son of Take Charge Indy should be tough to run down. The switch to F. Prat is another positive sign; this trainer/jockey combo hits at 35% with a massive ROI. Defense Wins, runner-up in his last three, is faster on numbers than our top pick and is the morning line favorite at 8/5. He’s just 1-for-14 in his career but at least that victory was accomplished over the local lawn. Both should be used in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Took Charge.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:22 PT Grade: B+
Use: 1-Leggs Galore; 5-Warren’s Showtime

Forecast: There’s more than enough early pace in this race to set things up for the best closer and Warren’s Showtime certainly is that. The late-running daughter of Clubhouse Ride exits a series of graded stakes races and today drops into state-bred company, so with the projected pace flow in her favor the C. Lewis-trained filly, listed at 6/5 on the morning line, should be along in plenty of time. Leggs Galore stretches out for the first time and lands the rail, so gate-to-wire strategy surely will be employed. She is probably the quickest of the quick, so if she can clear early without undue pressure the daughter of Bayern may be able take this field a long way.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:54 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Contagion; 3-Law Professor; 8-Waspirant

Forecast: Contagion, nosed out when claimed for $20,000 by P. Miller last time out, is protected today in a sign of confidence by a barn that hits with 25% (along with powerful ROI) with this angle. The switch to F. Prat is massive and the Fed Biz gelding, a two-time winner over the Santa Anita main track, should be capable of a career top effort from his favorable inside draw. Law Professor, a 3-year-old tackling older and making just his fourth career start, has looked especially sharp in the a.m. since being overmatched in the Santa Anita Derby and could be set for a significant forward move today even though he’s being asked to tackle older rivals. The son of Constitution projects to settle in the second flight and then have dead aim into the lane. Waspirant is another sophomore facing older foes but is a first-time gelding with a sharp recent workout and could easily be better than his recent races indicate. After trying stakes company in his last three starts, the son of Union Rags has been freshened since February and will appreciate this drop to a first level allowance event.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:26 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Adare; 3-Uncle Addouma; 10-City Rage

Forecast: Here’s a wide-open grass grab bag to close out the Sunday program. We’ll go three-deep in our rolling exotics but if you’d feel more comfortable using a few more, go right ahead. Uncle Addouma improved dramatically in his first start on grass when graduating in sharp style with a strong speed figure and if he can build on that performance today the son of Uncle Mo should have a chance to spring another upset. At 12-1 on the morning line, he’s worth a gamble. City Rage seems likely to fold into a comfortable pace-stalking position from his outside draw and then have every chance to register his fourth career victory over the Santa Anita turf course. Regular rider F. Prat stays aboard and knows him well. Adare is back sprinting and trying grass for the first time. He’s fast on figures, exits a productive race, and offers good value at or near his morning line of 8-1. Toss him in.
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Old 05-09-2021, 07:14 AM
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Jerry Shottenkirk: My Late Pick 4 Ticket Sunday at Santa Anita

May 9, 2021 | By Jerry Shottenkirk

The spotlight is one Warren’s Showtime in the Fran’s Valentine Stakes, the headliner on Santa Anita’s Sunday card and the seventh race on the program. It's the second leg of the late Pick 4.

Warren’s Showtime is back with California-breds after two thirds in the G2 Bueva Vista and G2 Royal Heroine in her last two. She’s lost to state-breds before but is moving into peak form.

Pulpit Rider, who does her best going long, looms as the best upset chance after rallying to mid-pack in a six-furlong stakes race.
The suggested Late Pick 4 ticket is for $72 and the sequence runs from races six through nine. Here’s a look at those on the ticket:

Race 6 (6:30 p.m. ET, starter optional claiming)

HOLDEN THE LUTE came out of a longer race last time and lacked speed in a sprint. Goes without blinkers and has had some impressive works since his last appearance.

DEFENSE WINS closed with a run and just missed, making it two straight losses via photo finish. Well spotted and could get his first win since November.

TOOK CHARGE ran in good Aqueduct dirt races and he set the pace on turf in his only Santa Anita start. Back to the dirt and can be a strong player from the outset.

I GOT NO MUNNY ran evenly last out and can get some pace help. Late mover with a chance.


Race 7 (7:00 p.m. ET, Fran’s Valentine Stakes)

WARREN’S SHOWTIME was third in a pair of Grade 2 races in the Royal Heroine and Buena Vista in her last two and should be difficult to handle. PULPIT RIDER didn’t fire going short last time but is more competitive in longer races and poses a late threat.


Race 8 (7:30 p.m. ET, allowance optional claiming)

TIZHOTNDUSTY was along too late going seven furlongs and is more effective going two turns. Won’t have as much work to do in the last part of it.

LAW PROFESSOR was mid-pack in the Santa Anita Derby, and that’s good enough to make him an important entrant here. Only win in three starts came at this distance.

WASPIRANT ran an even fifth in the El Camino Real and his best can put him right into the mix of this one.


Race 9 (8:00 p.m. ET, allowance)

KA’NAH closed in both turf attempts and will welcome the 6.5 furlongs.

UNCLE ADDOUMA made a huge improvement on turf and likely will be one to deal with in the late going.

BEST CHANCE was fourth going shorter and could appreciate the distance.

SOUTHERN HORSE never got involved in his first U.S. start after racing in Ireland and Argentina. Can improve after a series off decent works.

FRATELLI won his last two including his latest on the turf. Will hustle to get the lead and can be tough with it early.

COAST OF ROAN drops out of a route race and has won his first start of the year going this distance. Capable of a strong finish.


Santa Anita 50-cent Late Pick 4 on Sunday:
6) #2 Holden the Lute, #5 Defense Wins, #7 Took Charge, #8 I Got No Munny.
7) #5 Warren’s Showtime, #6 Pulpit Rider
8) #2 Tizhotndusty, #3 Law Professor, #8 Waspirant.
9) #1 Ka’nah, #3 Uncle Addouma, #4 Best Chance, #6 Southern Horse, #7 Fratelli, #8 Coast of Roan.
Santa Anita Late Pick 4 (races 6-9): 2-5-7-8 with 5-6 with 2-3-8 with 1-3-4-6-7-8 ($72).
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Old 05-09-2021, 07:16 AM
goirish25 goirish25 is online now
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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Santa Anita - Race #5
Picks Notes
#6 Tilted Towers Fairly reliable type will have to fire off the bench, but he might like the added ground here and can get a decent trip tracking the likely chalk.
#7 Speedy Justice Chalk is not going to offer any kind of price, but he has been razor sharp through two starts so far. He'll have to carry his ability another three-sixteenths while stepping up into a tougher spot off the bench. Today's the day to try to beat him?
#5 Kanderel Still waiting for this guy to wake up a bit, and maybe this cutback will do the trick. His recent form isn't much, so demand a fair price to jump in here.
Race Summary Tilted Towers might be the right one to beat Speedy Justice. His turf form last year was sharp, and he has run like he might be able to handle the added ground today.

Santa Anita - Race #7
Picks Notes
#4 Bella Vita She was no match for Ce Ce in that allowance last out, but her turf form has been interesting enough to give her a look in here at a mid-range price.
#5 Warren's Showtime She's the one to beat off a couple of graded stakes placings, but it's worth noting that she has come up short with this kind of state-bred stakes company on multiple occasions in the past, and she's going to get bet.
#2 Kristi's Tiger Her turf sprint win last out probably leaves her short of this group, but she might be a solid underneath player from off the pace if a couple of stretchout sprinters set a solid tempo.
Race Summary Bella Vita can track a couple of speedy sprinters in the early going, and she can get first jump on a likely underlaid Warren's Showtime who drops here.

Santa Anita - Race #9
Picks Notes
#1 Ka'nah He'll race off the bench as a first-time gelding, and he fired a big one off the layoff here last year, so maybe he can repeat that kind of effort today.
#10 City Rage He's likely to get bet again here, but his recent form gives him a chance to be tough with this group. Still, he might be worth trying to beat at another underlaid price.
#4 Best Chance Thinking this guy is a pretty solid underneath player with his finishing kick, and he's likely to offer a solid price here despite owning running lines that stack up well.
Race Summary Ka'nah will have to fire off the bench, but he has done that before and returns as a first-time gelding. Something like the 5/1 ML price would feel very appealing.
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Old 05-09-2021, 07:17 AM
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Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Golden Gate Fields - Race #6
Picks Notes
#6 Emma's Dance Has tackled good company and has performance well most of the time; can benefit from stalking a quick pace and has enough punch at this level.
#1 Ranger Molly Has speed to battle throughout and can benefit from the shorter distance; tough today.
#5 Point Break Rallied from just off the pace and won two races back; tired in her first against winners but can improve here.
Race Summary Emma's Dance has been vs. better competition and has what it takes to wear down this bunch.

Golden Gate Fields - Race #7
Picks Notes
#6 Manila Mischief Has a decent late move and should get a good pace in front of him; the one to hold off.
#2 Nowhere Man Rallied off a moderate pace and was up in time vs. similar; fits well here and has really taken to the grass.
#4 Darnquick Tied for a fifth-place finish in a Turf Paradise stakes race in his only turf run; comes off a decent sprint try and is geared up to be strong on the front end.
Race Summary Manila Mischief will follow a group that has its sights on the lead; the pace should play to him in a perfect manner.

Golden Gate Fields - Race #8
Picks Notes
#2 Ready Say Go Didn't fire in his latest but can return to good form in this spot; was a closing third two back and a similar run will make him a strong player late.
#1 Union Dance Has taken three straight, the latest at this level; can be where he needs to be in getting a good trip and will be a player in the drive to the wire.
#4 Bottle of Smoke Was a contender in his races here last year and has plenty of works for his first of this season.
Race Summary Ready Say Go has the kick to be effective in this spot and Orozco can get him rolling late in the game.
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Old 05-09-2021, 02:37 PM
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
PURCHASE

Bar

Mountaineer Park - Race #4 - Post: 8:06pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $6,800 Class Rating: 70

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#2 DONEGAL ACES (ML=5/1)
#5 PAISANO (ML=5/2)
#4 COMMISSARIO (ML=8/1)


DONEGAL ACES - You always have to be on the lookout for revenue generating jockey/trainer tandems; we have an instance right here. Took a big class drop last out, and I think he may have needed it. Shilling enters him at a similar class level today. I'd expect an improved performance. I like this gelding. Has the highest earnings per race in this one. PAISANO - This gelding is in good physical condition. Ran first on Apr 14th. I like the way this gelding's finish positions have gotten better with each start recently. A sign of a thoroughbred coming into top form. A repeat of that recent effort on April 14th where he earned a speed fig of 69 looks strong enough to prove victorious in this event. COMMISSARIO - Rider jumped on this gelding's back for the first attempt on Apr 26th. Should 'know' the horse even better this time. Nice return on investment for this jockey and handler twosome. He keeps getting closer at the finish with each and every start. I like horses that return to a similar class level after dropping at least 5 class-rating points like this one did last time around the track. I believe he'll be competitive at this level. Don't discount that last race. The animal fired out with good early speed, only to drop back and then hold ground to the finish.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 YEUDIEL (ML=3/1), #6 MIKE MIKE (ML=4/1), #1 REDMARK (ML=9/2),

YEUDIEL - Doesn't look to be worth 3/1 this time. Pass on him this time. MIKE MIKE - Really had to show me a whole lot more last out. Never made much of an impact. It appears like too much early speed is on board in this race. This speed merchant will in all probability get roasted on the top end. This racer ran a pedestrian speed figure last time around the track. He shouldn't show signs of improvement and will likely lose in today's event running that figure. REDMARK - Tough to keep chasing this kind of 'bridesmaid' horse. When examining today's class rating, he will have to earn a much better speed figure than in the last race to be competitive in this dirt route.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - DONEGAL ACES - Analyzing the last race, was on the lead for the 1st two calls, then faded but finished evenly. A slight improvement, and this one has great shot to win.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Putting our cash on #2 DONEGAL ACES to win. Have to have odds of at least 5/2 or better though

EXACTA WAGERS:
2 with [4,5]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [2,4,5] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass
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