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Old 07-30-2020, 05:57 AM
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Horse Racing 8-1-20

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Race of the Week: Dr. Fager Stakes at Gulfstream Park

July 29, 2020 | By Jeremy Plonk

$100,000 DR. FAGER STAKES AT GULFSTREAM PARK
Saturday, August 1, 2020
By Jeremy Plonk

The Lead:
Gulfstream Park welcomes August with a bang, presenting a pair of races in the Florida Sire Stakes series. The $100,000 Desert Vixen for the fillies in Race 9 and the $100,000 Dr. Fager in Race 10 match 2-year-olds over 6 furlongs. Both were well supported in the entry box with 10 and 12 participants, respectively. We'll focus on the Dr. Fager division in the Race of the Week, which looks like a stronger betting race of the two.

Over the years, this series has produced the likes of Hall of Famer Holy Bull and Breeders' Cup champions like Smile, Brave Raj, Big Drama and Awesome Feather.

​Field Depth:
Nine of the 12 juveniles have a single victory on the resume, led by open company maiden special weight scores at Gulfstream from BREEZE ON BY and GATSBY, and at Tampa Bay Downs from VALIANT THOR. With such light resumes -- 16 starts among the dozen entrants -- it's folly to put a ceiling on anyone's class just yet.

Pace:
Exactly half of these runners made the first call lead in their most recent start. And with many of them extending some distance to 6 furlongs, expect a fast pace that could wilt those not up to the challenge. A horse with a solid finishing kick should certainly be considered for exotics, though speed on the win end generally remains strong for this age bracket.

Our Eyes:
Replay study was the first order of business handicapping this group.

BREEZE ON BY and LITTLE DEMON race uncoupled for trainer Ralph Nicks. Both are extremely viable in this spot for owners who aim for the Florida Sires Stakes series annually. BREEZE ON BY will be the more ballyooed of the two going in, romping by 6 lengths as the 4-5 favorite in his only start. But he wheels back quickly in 3 weeks' time, squeezing a July 29 short breeze in-between starts. His 87 BRIS late pace figure was best of any in this field and his win was at the 6-furlong trip. He figures to be best among the front-end types, but will take pressure from post 2 and his gallop-out in his debut was just okay. LITTLE DEMON could fly under the radar some. He was runner-up in an open-company maiden special weight June 20 behind next-out allowance winner Papetu, who looks like the circuit's top early juvenile and one who is headed toward the Saratoga Special. LITTLE DEMON was game chasing throughout and did not have his spirit broken when chasing Pepetu in what was a very professional effort in defeat. His owner Jacks or Better Farm has a record 19 wins in the Florida Sire Stakes series all-time.

SON OF A BEAST will take plenty of betting action after a debut win as the 3-2 favorite for trainer Todd Pletcher. But this son of The Big Beast needed 13.04 the final furlong at the 5-furlong dash trip and was ridden all-out in victory June 24. He did gallop out fine, but his runner-up pursuer returned July 17 and settled for second again at a short price. SON OF A BEAST might be an underlay price to avoid, though respected connections.

GATSBY returns to Gulfstream after an unsuccessful, but bold, road trip to Churchill for the Grade 3 Bashford Manor Stakes. He was drilled there by leading national 2-year-old Cazadero, but was an April dash winner at Gulfstream in his debut. Jockey Hector Berrios takes over as Emisael Jaramillo opts to ride BREEZE ON BY. Statistically, Berrios has been riding as well as anyone at GP in the past few weeks.

CASALSA goes off the claim for Mike Maker, joining rookie barnmate LOST LOVER. The former wired maiden claiming $50,000-types in his second start, where he visually didn't overwhelm with up-and-down action to the wire and a weak gallop-out at 5 furlongs. LOST LOVER debuts from a tough rail draw given the full field size. 1/ST BET stats show Maker rarely tries to debut a 2-year-old in stakes company, but did win with 2 of 3 attempts from 2013-'16 with 4-1 and 5-1 propositions. LOST LOVER is the more appealing of the pair.

VALIANT THOR may be fastest the first quarter-mile. He blitzed a soft crew at Tampa Bay Downs early and late July 1 when never in doubt. The question is: What did he beat? The third-place finisher since returned in maiden claiming company at Gulfstream and mustered only a fourth-place finish. Jockey Ron Allen Jr. pulled off a trio of Gulfstream upsets last week at $15, $27 and $32 prices.

PALADIO won for $25,000 maiden claiming in his May debut and then was no match for the aforementioned Papetu on July 5 in allowance company, where he was outfinished late by FAMOUS GENT. It's FAMOUS GENT who appeals most of this duo for trainer Eddie Plesa after a disastrous start. He should be well-suited for the additional distance.

BOCA BOY rolled to victory at 18-1 in his July 17 debut for lower-profile connections. He was a bit green splashing through the slop with his head carried high, but didn't look bad at a price. If it's wet, BOCA BOY moves up. His time was .05 slower than a split division of the same-day race.

Most Certain Exotics Contender: LITTLE DEMON intrigues after gamely chasing a bear in his only start, and he has posted 4 workouts since the debut to build foundation.

​Best Longshot Exotics Contender: MR TINGLES shocked a maiden group at 35-1 on July 17 with a bold move up the rail and held off a 4-way charge to the wire with a good gallop-out. He went .05 faster than BOCA BOY's victory the same day. In a race loaded with early speed, you could envision a similar late attempt, but he'll need some traffic help.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll): $45 win LITTLE DEMON. $20 exacta part-wheel LITTLE DEMON over BREEZE ON BY and FAMOUS GENT ($40). $5 exacta part-wheel LITTLE DEMON, BREEZE ON BY and FAMOUS GENT over MR TINGLES ($15).
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Old 07-30-2020, 10:03 AM
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Saturday, August 1: Saratoga & Del Mar Stakes Picks

July 30, 2020 | By Dustin Fabian

It’s another great Saturday for racing. After all, any day where Midnight Bisou, McKinzie, Honor A. P., Tom’s d’Etat and Code of Honor are in the entries is going to be a good one.

Racing at Saratoga kicks off at 1:10PM ET and their 12-race card includes five stakes races, including the G1 Whitney and G1 Personal Ensign. Out west at Del Mar, the action starts at 5:00PM ET and features the G1 Bing Crosby and the ungraded Shared Belief, a ‘Road to the Kentucky Derby’ Points race.

here’s a look at Saturday’s big races:

Saturday Major Stakes Schedule

3:28PM ET | Saratoga | Personal Ensign S. (G1)
4:05PM ET | The Meadows (HRN) | Adios S.
4:14PM ET | Gulfstream | Desert Vixen S.
4:48PM ET | Gulfstream | Dr. Fager S.
5:30PM ET | Del Mar | Shared Belief S.
5:42PM ET | Saratoga | Whitney S. (G1)
6:18PM ET | Saratoga | H. Allen Jerkens S. (G1)
6:50PM ET | Saratoga | Bowling Green S. (G2)
7:22PM ET | Saratoga | Caress S.
9:30PM ET | Del Mar | Bing Crosby S. (G1)

Saturday Stakes Picks

Whitney Stakes (G1, $750K)
Saratoga (5:42PM ET) | 1 1/8 Miles (Dirt)

The downside: only five horses entered. The upside: this group is a combined 14: 9-3-1 this year, showing that losing has not been part of the equation for this quintet. TOM’S D’ETAT is a standout and a perfect 3-for-3 in ’20, including wins over BY MY STANDARDS (Stephen Foster) and IMPROBABLE (Oaklawn Mile). This race goes through him, but I’m pegging IMPROBABLE for the minor upset. When TOM’S D’ETAT beat IMPROBABLE in the Oaklawn Mile, IMPROBABLE was stuck in the outside post (11) which ensured a less-than-ideal trip. His subsequent win in the Hollywood Gold Cup was great and he seems to finally be living up to his potential. CODE OF HONOR is 2-for-2 at Saratoga but may be too pace-dependent in a race that is more tactical.

1. IMPROBABLE
2. TOM’S D’ETAT
3. CODE OF HONR

H. Allen Jerkens Stakes (G1, $300K)
Saratoga (6:18PM ET) | 7 Furlongs (Dirt)

A strong field of 11 is signed on here, including G1 Woody Stephens winner NO PAROLE, G3 Swale winner MISCHEVIOUS ALEX, G1 American Pharoah winner EIGHT RINGS and Belmont Stakes fifth-place finisher, TAP IT TO WIN. I think the pace is going to be quick here, given the inside-drawn EIGHT RINGS, the incredibly quick NO PAROLE, and the presence of MISCHEVIOUS ALEX and TAP IT TO WIN. If they go fast early, THREE TECHNIQUE should have a big shot. He hasn’t raced since March 14 – a big concern – but he has run well at Saratoga and is 4: 2-2-0 in one turn races.

1. THREE TECHNIQUE
2. SHOPLIFTED
3. NO PAROLE

Shared Belief Stakes ($100K)
Del Mar, Race 2 (5:30PM ET) | 1 1/16 Miles (Dirt)

Please note, UNCLE CHUCK is a planned scratch from this race and will instead run in the G1 Travers next Saturday. With that defection in mind, HONOR A. P. is going to be awfully difficult to beat. He handled next-out G1 Haskell winner Authentic with ease in the G1 Santa Anita Derby and continues to show more tactical speed with each race. Bob Baffert’s CEZANNE is a bit of an enigma. Coolmore bought him at auction for $3.6 million and he’s a perfect 2-for-2, but he’s yet to throw a ‘wow’ performance. His maiden and first-level allowance wins were more workmanlike than flashy and he’s going to need to step up to handle HONOR A. P. THOUSAND WORDS ran better in the G3 Los Alamitos Derby but he’s clearly not on par with the highest regarded horses in the Baffert barn.

1. HONOR A. P.
2. CEZANNE
3. THOUSAND WORDS

Bing Crosby Stakes (G1, $250K)
Del Mar, Race 10 (9:30PM ET) | 6 Furlongs (Dirt)

If there’s a time to beat MCKINZIE, I think it’s here. You have to admire what this horse brings to the table, but he might have lost a step (he can still beat this field having lost a step, mind you), but, most importantly, there’s no evidence to suggest he’s a true sprinter. He has excelled in stretch-out sprints (7 furlongs and one-turn miles), but what happens when he runs in a six-furlong dash? It’s to be determined and I don’t want to pay 4/5 odds to find out. I’ll take my chances with COLLUSION ILLUSION, a three-year-old that has won both races this year. He’s a perfect 4-for-4 in sprint races, a perfect 2-for-2 at Del Mar and should take advantage of a good setup from just behind the pacesetters. He should get the jump on MCKINZIE. Can he hold him off? I’ll take much nicer odds to find out.

1. COLLUSION ILLUSION
2. MCKINZIE
3. P R RADIO STAR
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Old 07-31-2020, 12:28 PM
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Saturday, August 1: Eddie Olczyk's Spot Plays

July 31, 2020

It’s great to have racing back at so many of North America’s premier venues and it’s hard not to get excited anytime we’ve got an afternoon at Saratoga and an evening at Del Mar.

Here are my picks for six races on Saturday, including the day’s marquee event, the G1 Whitney at Saratoga.

Stay safe out there and I’ll see you at the track soon!

Saratoga, Race 4 (2:51PM ET) - #8 MATTY’S MARAUDER (30/1)
Maiden Special Weight – 7 Furlongs (Dirt)

Bombs away! Several enticing angles make this horse stand out to me. He’s cutting back from route to sprint and going from turf to dirt. He showed speed and faded last time, but maybe this go around he’ll try to come from off the pace. He’s a solid underneath horse and we should get every bit of 25/1 on him.

Saratoga, Race 9 (5:42PM ET) - #3 CODE OF HONOR (5/2)
G1 Whitney Stakes – 1 1/8 Miles (Dirt)

They’ll all have to beat Tom’s d’Etat, who is just in phenomenal form for Al Stall Jr. That said, I thought CODE OF HONOR ran an impressive race to close and finish 3rd in the G1 Met Mile on July 4 at Belmont. I have upgraded that performance a bit since it came over what I believe was a speed-favoring track. He should get pace to run at in the Whitney as Mr. Buff and Improbable are both ‘forward’ horses and, like many of us, CODE OF HONOR loves the ‘Spa. He won the G1 Travers here last summer.

Saratoga, Race 10 (6:18PM ET) - #8 THREE TECHNIQUE (6/1)
G1 H. Allen Jerkens Stakes – 7 Furlongs (Dirt)

There is plenty of speed signed on in this year’s Allen Jerkens and THREE TECHNIQUE (hopefully) gets back to a dry track after his last three races were competed over surfaces with varying degrees of wetness. I think he is a true one-turn horse – he flattened around two turns – and he broke his maiden here last summer. I am looking for Jose Ortiz to stalk and pounce on the leaders for what is hopefully a winning run.

Saratoga, Race 11 (6:50PM ET) - #4 DOT MATRIX (9/2)
G2 Bowling Green Stakes – 1 3/8 Miles (Turf)

Draw a line through his last race in the G1 Manhattan where a pedestrian early pace forced him closer to the front than he seems to prefer. Plus, the horses in that race are a little better than the horses he faces today. With a little more pace expected here, he should sit a truer trip and have more punch down the lane. Getting Joel Rosario back (who piloted him to a pair of runner-up efforts in their last two races together) doesn’t hurt.

Del Mar, Race 5 (7:00PM ET) - #7 DREAMS OF VALOR (4/1)
Allowance – 1 Mile (Dirt)

Yes, he’s winless on dirt. And yes, he’s stuck with an outside post. But his last couple of dirt races were pretty good and I like the fact that Craig Dollase set him up for this route race with two solid sprint efforts. Let’s let Tizamagician and Nolo Contesto take the money and hopefully we get 5/1 on DREAMS OF VALOR.

Del Mar, Race 10 (9:30PM ET) - #9 COLLUSION ILLUSION (9/2)
G1 Bing Crosby Stakes – 6 Furlongs (Dirt)

With McKinzie an expected scratch, this race is wide-open and the best of this bunch just might be the outside-drawn three-year-old, COLLUSION ILLUSION. I love his outside draw and the fact that he’s 4-for-4 in sprint races and undefeated with Flavien Prat in the saddle is a feather in his cap. Taking on older horses is a big test, but I think he’s up for it.
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Old 07-31-2020, 05:23 PM
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Saturday Bi-Coastal Stakes Analysis

July 31, 2020 | By Johnny D

The $100,000 Shared Belief, to be contested Saturday at Del Mar, has never been a prep for the Kentucky Derby. Makes sense. Del Mar’s meet normally extends from late-July through Labor Day and the Kentucky Derby is run on the first Saturday in May. However, in case you haven’t noticed, nothing’s ‘normal’ this year.

Not since 1918 have people worldwide simultaneously sacrificed so much so quickly. While critical issues continue to swirl about, we turn to horseracing for entertainment and momentary shelter from reported growing totals of infected and deceased.

This year, the Kentucky Derby will be contested September 5, and Saturday’s one mile and one-sixteenth Shared Belief serves as a significant Louisville prep race, especially for top ranked contender Honor A. P. and emerging Cezanne. The Shared Belief isn’t much of a wagering event but, as the second race on an 11-race card, it represents leg B of the early Pick 5.

Based on 200 weekly players, top three finishers each Saturday will earn $2,100; $875 and $525, respectively. ‘Final Table’ top 3 finishers will collect $12,250; $3,500 and $1,750, respectively. And that’s not including the ‘live’ cash players accumulate while wagering on races at the Spa and Where the Turf Meets the Surf!

Below is one man’s horse-by-horse analysis of the Shared Belief Stakes, followed by horse-by-horse comments on runners in three Grade 1 races from Saratoga:

Del Mar—Race 2—Shared Belief Stakes

1. Uncle Chuck has plenty of talent. He’s a good-sized, long-striding colt with natural speed and the look of a distance horse. Trainer Bob Baffert usually wins Kentucky Derbies and sometimes Triple Crowns with this kind. The colt has only had two races, so he’s a bit inexperienced. He changes leads back and forth in the stretch but never stops running. Expect this son of Uncle Mo to be scratched from this race in favor of a start against number one ranked Tiz the Law in next Saturday’s Travers at Saratoga.

2. Thousand Words is one of two Bob Baffert-trained runners that will start in this race. The other is #6 Cezanne. This son of Pioneerof the Nile won his first three races but has managed just one in the money finish in as many races since—a well-beaten second to stablemate #1 Uncle Chuck. He’s got a stalking style and should ride the rail early.

3. Anneau d’Or hasn’t improved much since his 2-year-old season. He is expected to scratch from this race for a start in the Ellis Park Derby. No matter where he actually races, he will need to show more than previously shown at age 3. He seems a classic example of a colt that didn’t improve from age 2 to 3.

4. Kiss Today Goodbye seems completely overmatched in here but probably will earn fourth money just by showing up.

5. Honor A. P. upset Baffert’s highly regarded Authentic last out in the Santa Anita Derby and is near the top of anyone’s sophomore rankings. This son of Honor Code has developed nicely for patient trainer John Shirreffs and may have even more in the tank. The colt won wire-to-wire to break maiden, but probably is best from a few lengths off the pace. Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith is the regular rider and he will need to make some critical decisions in this short field that lacks much early pace. It should be noted that this last out Grade 1 stakes winner normally wouldn’t make his next start in an un-graded $100k stakes race but he needs this outing as a tune-up for the rescheduled September 5 Kentucky Derby. A win isn’t critical. A solid effort and a forward move are the goals.

6. Cezanne draws the outside in this six-about-to-be-four-horse field and he’ll likely use his speed to clear foes early. He’s unbeaten in two starts—a maiden at six and one-half furlongs and a first-level allowance/optional $40k claiming race at Los Alamitos. He’s talented but maybe not quite as gifted as stablemate #1 Uncle Chuck. His weapon in this heat is his speed and he will use it. An important question is ‘How close can/will #5 Honor A. P. be to #6 Cezanne early?’ If Cezanne is able to clear as expected, he will win.

Bottom Line: #5 Honor A. P. doesn’t need to win this race and the pace picture doesn’t favor him. #6 Cezanne does need to win to garner Kentucky Derby starting gate points—50-20-10-5. Therefore, the prediction is that #6 Cezanne goes wire-to-wire for the win under jockey Flavien Prat for trainer Bob Baffert.


Saturday, on the opposite coast, at Saratoga, they will run a trio of Grade 1 races that include some of the nation’s top Thoroughbreds. Midnight Bisou headlines the $500,000 Personal Ensign at one mile and one-eighth; Tom’s de’Etat and Code of Honor top the $750,000 mile and one-eighth Whitney Stakes and No Parole is the big dog in the $300,000 seven-furlong H. Allen Jerkens.

Here’s a horse-by-horse look at each of these Grade 1 Spa main events:


Saratoga--Race 5--Personal Ensign

1. Abounding Joy is a 5-year-old mare that’s at her best right now, winning the Iowa Distaff by more than 5 lengths last out. This is her first graded stakes race and she should find the water much deeper than ever before. Jose Ortiz is aboard this winning-type mare seeking her fifth score in 10 starts.

2. Motion Emotion was well-beaten by Midnight Bisou last out in the Gr. 2 Fleur de Lis at Churchill. It’s difficult to figure out how she’ll flip the script on that foe in here. She does have some speed and ought to be able to enjoy a rail-skimming trip. That and the presence of jockey irad Ortiz will help.

3. Midnight Bisou is a legitimate star. She’s won 13 of 21 and over $7.3 million, but her most impressive performance may have come in a three-quarter length losing effort when she fell just short of Maximum Security in the Gr. 1 Saudi Cup. She won 7 of 8 starts last year, with her only loss coming when second behind Blue Prize in the BC Distaff. Last out, the 5-year-old mare romped by over 8 lengths in the Fleur de Lis at Churchill. She’ll be a deservedly short price to win this race under trainer Steve Asmussen’s main man Ricardo Santana, Jr. who’s substituting for Mike Smith. Many runners in this race will have new jockeys because of a restriction at Saratoga that prevents those from outside the local colony to ride there. Midnight Bisou has a first, second and a third in three tries over the Saratoga main track and she’s got three firsts, three seconds and two thirds in eight starts at the one mile and one-eighth distance.

4. Vexatious delivered a lifetime-best effort last out to be second by two lengths to the accomplished Monomoy Girl in the Gr. 2 one-mile Ruffian at Belmont around one turn. The 6-year-old mare never has been good enough to win a race like this.

5. Bossy Bride romped home in a $50,000 allowance starter at Belmont last out over a sloppy track. She also completely dominated six foes by more than 13 lengths in a $25k non-winners of two. This Grade 1 test ought to be much more difficult than either of those two triumphs.

6. Point of Honor is the kind of filly that could pose a problem for #3 Midnight Bisou. She’s a 4-year-old that’s in great form—second by a nose to She’s a Julie in the Gr. 1 Ogden Phipps last out at Belmont. She has been second twice in two starts over the Saratoga main track—in the Grade 1 Coaching Club Oaks and in the Gr. 1 Alabama. She doesn’t have early speed but doesn’t get too far out of it either. Javier Castellano has been aboard her for the majority of her 9 lifetime starts. She has three wins and four seconds. The Black-Eyed Susan winner probably has a Grade 1 with her name on it, but she’ll need to go through #3 Midnight Bisou in here to win.

Bottom Line: There’s really not much to be gained by wagering on #3 Midnight Bisou, but she looks strictly like the one to beat and should handle this field. #6 Point of Honor is the most likely to make ‘Bisou earn it.


Saratoga—Race 9—The Whitney

1. By My Standards needs to find about four and one-half extra lengths in order to turn the tables on #5 Tom’s d’Etat. They ran 1-2 in the one mile and one-eighth Stephen Foster roughly a month ago. Jose Ortiz takes over for Corey Lanerie aboard this 4-year-old colt. The loss to #5 Tom’s d’Etat was only this colt’s second defeat in his last seven races and it snapped a three-race 2020 winning streak. By My Standards has some pace and should be close up on the rail to whatever early action develops. The millionaire’s quality, with five wins and 3 seconds in 10 lifetime starts. He’s also been successful in 3 out of 4 attempts at the distance.

2. Improbable hails from the Bob Baffert barn and posted the best effort of his 12-race career last out in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita. He was able to take control of the race early, open up and keep going for a three and one-quarter length win over Higher Power. That was his first win since he took the Shared Belief at Del Mar last August. In the start before that, #5 Tom’s d’Etat ran him down by three-quarters of a length in the Oaklawn Mile in April. Irad Ortiz, Jr. takes over aboard Improbable and there’s good reason to expect this guy to be running with the early pace.

3. Code of Honor loves Saratoga with two wins in as many tries here including a first-out maiden sprint in 2018 and last season’s Gr. 1 Travers. He fired an accurate shot last out in the Gr. 1 Metropolitan Mile, but it wasn’t quite enough firepower to drop red-hot, speedster Vekoma. A mile and one-eighth is a better distance for Code of Honor but in this small 6-horse field there’s concern that there might not be enough pace to set things up for his grinding finish.

4. Mr. Buff has speed and can be counted on to attempt to use it early under Junior Alvarado. Unfortunately, this New York bred really will need to run much better than he has before against open company to have a say in this one. He will be heard from early and that’s music to #3 Code of Honor’s ears because he could add spice to the early pace. It’s just doubtful he’ll be able to maintain an early advantage against these.

5. Tom’s d’Etat is among the top older horses in the nation. What’s notable is that he seems to have found the fountain of youth at age 7 and is performing at a consistently high level this year and last. He’s working on a string of four consecutive wins, including the Gr. 1 Clark and Gr. 2 Stephen Foster. This son of Smart Strike has enough speed to sit comfortably off whatever early pace develops. He has won 5 of his last 6 and 11 of 18 overall. He’s banked just over $1.5 million. Oh, and he also loves the Spa with 3 wins in 4 starts there and 6 wins in 9 tries at the distance. He’s strictly the one to beat.

Bottom Line: #5 Tom’s d’Etat has plenty going for him and will be a deserving favorite. #3 Code of Honor is the major threat. The 4-year-old will run well and, if he gets enough early pace, could win.


Saratoga—Race 10—H. Allen Jerkens

1. Hopeful Treasure he’s not fast enough to win this race and will be a big price from the rail.

2. Eight Rings burst onto the scene in 2019 with three initial notable races. First out, he broke maiden at Del Mar by six and one-quarter lengths going five and one-half furlongs. Next out, heavily favored in the Del Mar Futurity, he ducked in after the start and lost his jock. He then returned triumphantly to win the Gr. 1 American Pharoah at a mile and one-sixteenth at Santa Anita by six lengths. He hasn’t been able to regain that winning form since, showing speed and fading in two races--2019 BC Juvenile and Oaklawn Park’s Bachelor in April. He’ll need to turn the ship around and run much faster than he ever has before.

3. Sonneman’s maiden and optional claiming $75k wins at Belmont and Gulfstream are respectable, but he’s got to do way more to have a say in this one.

4. Echo Town is a consistent colt with 3 wins and 2 seconds and a third from 6 starts. He finished second to #6 No Parole and ahead of #7 Shoplifted last out in the Gr. 1 Woody Stephens at Belmont. Don’t think he’s quite fast enough to win this race, but you’ll want his fighting spirit on your side if you’re playing exotics.

5. Mischevious Alex ran 3 consecutive corkers—won the Parx Juvenile, Gr. 3 Swale at Gufstream and Gr. 3 Gotham at Aqueduct—before finishing fourth last out in the Gr. 1 Woody Stephens against some of these same foes. He’s just about as fast as favorite #6 No Parole on his best day and gets an interesting rider switch to Irad Ortiz. The son of Into Mischief was bumped at the start of his last and does his best running close to the early pace. He’ll pressure #6 No Parole early and should fare better than last time in the lane.

6. No Parole is one sharp cookie. He’s won his last two sprint races by more than 2 and more than 3 lengths, respectively. Those bring his win total to 5 out of 6—failing only when going two turns in the Gr. 2 Rebel in the slop which certainly is excusable. He’ll be a short price to handle this field, many of which he dusted last out in the Gr. 1 Woody Stephens. There’s a small chance that he could react from his powerful performance, but that scenario should be limited to select backup tickets only.

7. Shoplifted would need to improve in a hurry to win this race. He was a well-beaten third last out in the common Gr. 1 Woody Stephens. Jockey Jose Oritz bails in favor of next-door neighbor #7 Three Technique and Tyler Gaffalione will ride. This son of Into Mischief has 2 wins in 9 starts but has faced decent competition since breaking his maiden—all stakes, including 4 Grade 1 races. He’s a toss for us.

8. Three Technique has two wins in as many starts at seven furlongs—one of those a maiden score at Saratoga. He was second in the Smarty Jones going a mile at Oaklawn in the mud. He returned in the slop to be fourth in the Gr. 2 Rebel. Connections wisely have chosen to return to one-turn race at a distance he loves. Still, he’ll need to step forward a bit to have any say in this outcome. His closing ability and route experience suggests he may be decent filler in bottom exotic rungs.

9. Liam’s Pride’s last race was a major improvement over previous efforts. However, it looks more like a one-off over a sloppy track at 13-1 than a move toward continued improvement. We’ll pass on his chances in here.

10. Captain Bombastic won the restricted Mike Lee last out going seven furlongs at Belmont. All three of his wins have come against fellow New York-breds. These are a bit more potent. Jockey Luis Saez understandably moves from here to #6 No Parole. Javier Castellano rides. Can’t see him in the picture.

11. Tap It to Win broke maiden at Saratoga second time out and, most recently, set the pace in the Gr. 1 Belmont Stakes before fading to fifth with a double-digit losing margin. Before that he went wire-to-wire in a first-level allowance race. Often cutback plays from two-turn races back to seven-furlong sprints are interesting. This son of Tapit will need to run faster than he has before and won’t be alone on the lead—the scenario where he earned his top speed figure. He’s fit, though, has a nice outside post position and has a Hall of Fame jockey in John Velazquez to figure things out. May be an exotics play at a decent price.

Bottom Line: #6 No Parole looks best but there may be a way to turn a short-priced triumph into a few bucks by using others underneath in exoitcs.

Suggested H. Allen Jerkens Bets

$2 Trifecta ($24 Total)

First: #6
Second: #4 #5, #8, #11
Third: #4, #5, #8, #11

$.50 Trifecta ($12 Total)

First: #5, #6
Second: #4, #5, #6, #8, #11
Third: #4, #5, #6, #8, #11

Race On!
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Old 08-01-2020, 07:12 AM
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Al Cimaglia: The Adios Pace Super Hi-5 Analysis

August 1, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia

It is Adios Day at the Meadows Racetrack which is the biggest card of the year at the Washington Pennsylvania oval. The Super Hi-5 will have a $50,000 guaranteed pool and it will be contested in Race 15 which is the Delvin Miller Adios Pace with a $375,000 purse. The sequence will have a mandatory payout plus a $50,000 guaranteed pool and it will be my focus.

My two key horses probably won't have the lead initially but could benefit from a speed battle by others trying to get the top. My choice to win the Adios is #2-Capt Midnight and #1-Later Dudes will be used in the 2-3 slots in the Hi-5. If the #1 goes off at a nice price and #6, #8, or #9 hits the board the Hi-5 could pay nicely. That could be the case as long as Capt Midnight comes up with a big effort to take top honors. A solid payout for the Hi-5 hinges on the program chalk #3-Catch The Fire and the 3rd morning line favorite #4-The Greek Freak not finishing at the top of the ticket.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 15-Delvin Miller Adios Pace-Purse $375,000

1-Later Dudes (8-1)-Here is my key to getting a price involved in the Hi-5. This lightly raced 3-year old has started on the rail in the last 2. He might be overlooked and could go off higher than the 8-1 morning line. Dave Miller sat patiently in the Elim, pulled the plugs at the top of the lane, and then rallied nicely for 2nd. Many will say Sandbetweenmytoes, who sat in the pocket, would have finished 2nd if not for breaking. That will be another reason this Brian Brown pupil may not get bet and could provide some juice to the Hi-5. Miller could duck, get a good seat and rally late to hit the board at a nice price. This looks like a spot to be driven more aggressively and the colt did close last week in 26.1. He's learning and getting better. Miller will keep him in the hunt.

2-Capt Midnight (4-1)-Barring a bad trip the Capt looks like the winner and should improve in its 2nd Meadows start. Catch the Fire went to the half last week in .55 and the pace should be quicker today. The Capt was hung 1st over the last 3/8's and did pace the 2nd half in a snappy 53.3 to fall short by a head. He finished well and this time McCarthy could wait for the dust to settle and pull earlier and roll to the top. Drawing inside of the #3 and #4 won't hurt and not sure the 4-1 morning line holds up, but there is value at those odds.

3-Catch The Fire (3-1)-Not casting shade on this son of Captaintreacherous but he is not going to get the same kind of respect as in last week's Elimination. This colt may need to be leading at the top of the lane to win and that may not be the case this time. If Wilder goes for the lead off the gate, which will probably be the case, others could be committed to do the same. So, it will be a question of how much gas will be left after the 3/4's and my guess is the pressure applied early will cost the program chalk.

4-The Greek Freak (5-1)-This has been a very good year for the Freak. He was gelded after going winless in 9-starts in 2019. Now the Burke trainee is riding a 4-race win streak, but he had an even easier path to an Elimination win than Catch The Fire. The Freak got on the engine and went to the half in .56 and was unchallenged for almost the entire mile. This is another nice-looking colt but probably a notch below #2 and #3.

5-No Lou Zing (7-1)-Takter trainee has raced only 8-times and in my view, there is no value at the program odds of 7-1. Looks like a minor player and hasn't shown the same type of speed as others. The lack of seasoning, plus the pilot may not be in the same class as others drivers in this field works against Lou.

6-Sweet Truth (12-1)-Sweet Lou 3-year-old appears to be getting better but is in tall cotton today. Not sure how Gingras can put him in play but wouldn't rule out for a piece of the Hi-5.

7-Chief Mate (20-1)-This is not a win candidate in my mind and will need a close-up seat to hit the board. But could be in the hunt for the bottom of the Hi-5 ticket, but will probably need some luck to finish any higher.

8-Captain Barbossa (8-1)-This is a very nice colt, and is in a similar position as #9. Dunn will need to work a great trip to hit the board from this post and winning seems to not be in the cards. But could add some juice to the Hi-5 payout if finishes in the top three.

9-Elver Hanover (10-1)-This is another fine colt, but this post most likely crushed any chance for a win. Page may blast out and the question will be at what cost. This is probably the best horse of the three Burke has entered. So, if the trip goes well and lands a good seat or follows live cover, Elver could spice up the Hi-5.

0.20 Hi-5
2/1/3,4,6,8,9/3,4,5,6,7,8,9/3,4,5,6,7,8,9=$30.00

0.20 Hi-5
2/3,4,6,8,9/1/3,4,5,6,7,8,9/3,4,5,6,7,8,9=$30.00
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Old 08-01-2020, 07:15 AM
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Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Saratoga - Race #1
Picks Notes
#8 Team Merchants Reddam homebred comes in with a trio of blazing NY drill for O'Neill, drew the perfect outside attack post, and meets a field that doesn't look loaded; call in a scramble.
#7 Winfromwithin Pletcher runner was odds-on on debut and stalked and closed a bit to be a slow 2nd, but the experience edge is a big one, as is his ability to pass horses; the one to beat.
#4 Windcracker CD invader was a closing 3rd on debut and is another who will have a leg up on the firsters, though falling too far out of it early isn't ideal on this track; looms in the mix.
Race Summary Tab the tote on the 8, as you want him live and taking money in a field that looks there for the taking, and if that's the case you can play him in all the slots, and especially to kick off the early Pk5 as well, since this is a deep field, and getting one home in the 6-1 range would knock a lot of tickets out right off the bat.

Saratoga - Race #10
Picks Notes
#7 Shoplifted Price player made a middle move into a crawling pace in the Bel GI then flattened out late to be a distant 3rd to a few who run back here, but the pace looks much hotter here, and off that trial cutback run, for a horse who is 2-1-1-0 here, he might move way up; mos them down late.
#11 Tap It to Win Dangerous cutback router was in too deep and too far in the Belmont, when he set the pace and tired to be 5th, but his sprint form is top notch, he'll have plenty of foundation off the two route tries, and this outside attack post should fit him perfectly; looks like the one to beat.
#5 Mischevious Alex Stalker was behind the pick in the GI Woody Stephens last time after chasing the speed early, and sure, he may have been exposed that day, but he's another who should benefit from this being a truer run race, and the price will be right if you're stringing along; expecting a big run.
Race Summary The price and (hopefully) the race flow will be right on the 7, who figures to get a much better set of circumstances in this big field, so give him a look in all the slots, and especially the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since he's likely to be completely ignored, which means a win would completely blow up both sequences, especially since the (unmentioned) heavy favorite #6 No Parole, who beat him last time while walking on the lead, is back for more and a potential single for budget players.

Saratoga - Race #12
Picks Notes
#5 Jakarta Speedy miss has some hidden form, as she didn't fire going too far over yielding ground in a GIII two-back then was in over her head in a dirt GIII last time, but the firm turf sprint win three-back plays with these, and she looks like a Lone F; come and catch the upset special.
#2 I'llhandalthecash The gal to beat finally got a trip last time and won a Bel stakes, and her tactical speed will have her close to the pick early, and get her the jump on the ML favorite off the far turn, though working out a trip from down here in a big field could be a bit of a roadblock; second-best.
#7 Dalika Vulnerable ML favorite ran out of room when flying at 'Cash last time, so clearly she hits hard here, but the pace won't help her late kick, not to mention she cuts back a half-furlong too, which should help the top-2 a lot more than her; thinking she comes up a bit short once again.
Race Summary The price and the race flow will both be right on the 5, as she somehow catches a big turf sprint field without any other speed to keep her entertained early, which will give her a big chance late, so play her in all the slots, and especially to end the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since she's got a big chance to pull off the upset, and what figures to be a very juicy number.
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Old 08-01-2020, 07:16 AM
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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Laurel Park - Race #2
Picks Notes
#9 Fair Catch Worth a little price look on the hike after taking to the turf quite nicely in that last one. The outside draw works well for his early pace.
#8 Clear Vision Did graduate going short on the lawn in the debut, but he has been pretty badly outrun in the early going of his recent route races. Along too late?
#7 Grateful Bred Showed sharp pace to put that field away long before the wire last out, but he's likely to have a little bit of company in the early going.
Race Summary Fair Catch gets a class test, but his turf debut was really sharp last time out against cheaper, and he draws outside the other pace to get the right trip.

Laurel Park - Race #8
Picks Notes
#6 Artemus Bridge Tactical player should be able to work out another really great trip, and he'd be plenty appealing if offering the 3/1 ML price at post time.
#4 Bobby G Brings super reliable form with him to this one, and he's one to fear from off the pace late. Not impossible today.
#2 Hard Fought Has the early pace to try to make a break for it from the inside if they want the lead, but he might be best used in the underneath spots in a pretty tough race.
Race Summary Artemus Bridge looks the part with these from relatively close range, and he probably only needs to hold his current form to win in this spot.

Laurel Park - Race #9
Picks Notes
#2 Breviary Romped against much softer at the $25,000 MCL level, but she also added blinkers that day which might account for some of the massive move forward. I'll take it at face value if the ML price holds up.
#6 Global Ambition Has been slowly moving forward through three starts, and she's likely to get another nice trip from tracking range. Wouldn't want too short of a price here.
#7 Mandette She didn't do much but run around the turf course in the comeback race, but she's got some back dirt races that would make her at least a little bit interesting here at a square price.
Race Summary Breviary steps way up to face winners out of a soft MCL win, but she looked like a different horse with blinkers on, and I'll give her a chance to prove it was for real at something like 6/1.
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Old 08-01-2020, 07:17 AM
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Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #2
Picks Notes
#2 MILITARY SECRET Strong rally at notch below, starts from better post.
#4 MAJOR HILL Classy 7-year-old is major player on the class drop.
#7 OSBORNE SEELSTER Carried speed to a win and two seconds recently, can carry it far again.
Race Summary Military Secret, unproven at this level this year, rallied 6-wide in the stretch to finish second last week. He draws favorably and is re-united with McNair. Play a 2-4-7 exacta box.

Meadowlands - Race #4
Picks Notes
#4 ALLYWAG HANOVER Raced erratically, had aim at ‘Pace’ victory, settled for third.
#10 TALL DARK STRANGER Snatched ‘Pace’ victory from jaws of defeat to top $1 million.
#8 CAPTAIN KIRK Second to ‘Stranger’ two back, faded from post 10 in follow-up.
Race Summary Allywag Hanover worked out a perfect trip off the dueling leaders in the Meadowlands Pace, angled 3-wide in the stretch but couldn’t reach. He underwent a late equipment repair and raced with his head turned sideways much of the race, so we’re sticking with him.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #11
Picks Notes
#6 ROCKIN N TALKIN Deceptively sharp victory, takes class hike, price attached.
#10 ROCKIN IN HEAVEN Held third as fave, had too much work to do in follow-up versus better.
#3 PLAY JET RAY Good form, good tactical speed but 1-15 record this year.
Race Summary Rockin N Talkin was much better than his win appears last week. He was trapped on the final turn, found room on the inside and was widening the margin at the wire. He’s too good to pass up at 10-1 on the morning line. Play 6-3 and 6-10 exactas.
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Old 08-01-2020, 07:18 AM
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Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Del Mar - Race #1
Picks Notes
#4 Victor's Show Was up in time at Los Al last time out and keep Hernandez for his first try vs. winners; can stalk and pounce late.
#3 Street Image Comes in off a gate to wire score over this strip and comes back at the same distance; solid tries in his last three.
#8 Sorriso Tired in his 1st vs. winner but pressed very fast fractions and is a big threat on the front end of this one.
Race Summary Victor's Show is a decent closer and will get a fast pace to stalk; can be very tough if he runs back to his last one.

Del Mar - Race #2
Picks Notes
#1 Uncle Chuck Buried fields in his only two races and was on the lead in one and just off the early pace in the other; his 1 1-8th-mile performance in the Los Alamitos Derby was terrific. If there's a down side, if that, he beat four horses in his first race and three in his second. The company gets considerably better here.
#5 Honor A.P. Was sharp in a come-from-behind win in the Santa Anita Derby and can adjust to any pace. Ready to dig in when called upon.
#3 Anneau d'Or Was close early in the Arkansas Derby and Santa Anita Derby lost a photo in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last year; tough on or very close to the front end here.
Race Summary Uncle Chuck sees his best competition to date but the feeling is that we haven't seen his best; has started only twice but looks like he's good and ready to prove he belongs with the top 3-year-olds.

Del Mar - Race #10
Picks Notes
#3 Desert Law Was second in the Bing Crosby last year and ran a good third in the Thor's Echo after 11 months off. Gets the Hall of Famer Espinoza, who is as good as anyone in big races.
#6 Fashionably Fast Lost a six-race win streak when second in the Triple Bend last out; at the top of his game and capable of being right there throughout.
#9 Collusion Illusion Won the four races he finished (was vanned off after pulled up in the American Pharoah last year) and comes in off an easy score in the Laz Barrera. Brings some late energy.
Race Summary Desert Law has been competitive and has had just four races in the past two years; outstanding when he brings his best and can get a great trip, likely just off the lead.
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Old 08-01-2020, 09:41 AM
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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Camarero
PURCHASE
Camarero - Race 7

Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta


Claiming $20,000 • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 85 • Purse: $8,100 • Post: 5:30P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 31 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE JULY 16 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE JUNE 16 ALLOWED 5 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000 (RACES FOR LESSER CLAIMING NOT CONSIDERED RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN ESTIMATING ALLOWANCES).
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Lone Front-runner. LITTLE TRAFFIC is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * BOKUR: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. RODAS: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fou rth start after a layoff. MONKEYOFFMYBACK: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. LITTLE TRAFFIC: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. CRAFTINESS: Today is a sprint a nd this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff.
7
BOKUR
7/2

6/1
9
RODAS
2/1

6/1
8
MONKEYOFFMYBACK
5/2

7/1
3
LITTLE TRAFFIC
5/1

7/1
1
CRAFTINESS
3/1

10/1




P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
3
LITTLE TRAFFIC
3

5/1
Front-runner
67

74

84.0

69.0

61.5
7
BOKUR
7

7/2
Stalker
85

73

77.4

79.2

74.7
5
SPECTACULAR TRUTH
5

10/1
Stalker
77

79

65.3

66.5

56.5
8
MONKEYOFFMYBACK
8

5/2
Stalker
82

82

59.0

77.4

70.9
9
RODAS
9

2/1
Stalker
83

81

58.4

75.6

69.1
4
THREE IN A YEAR
4

4/1
Trailer
69

71

42.2

61.0

46.0
1
CRAFTINESS
1

3/1
Trailer
79

71

39.0

74.3

68.3
2
MY RUNNER RUNNER
2

10/1
Alternator/Non-contender
73

73

58.0

62.6

51.1
6
HUGOIGO
6

10/1
Alternator/Non-contender
67

59

35.7

48.0

30.0
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Old 08-01-2020, 09:42 AM
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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)
PURCHASE
Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse) - Race 5

$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta $1 Superfecta (.10 cent mimimum wager $1 Pick Four


Allowance • 300 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 83 • Purse: $12,000 • Post: 9:22P
QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR TWO YEAR OLDS WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 124 LBS.
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * PYC POWERGLIDE: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. LEAH CARROLL: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation. DONT RIDE THE SLIDE: Horse's average winnin g distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). FRACTIONAL INTEREST: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. BAC TO LIFE: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
2
PYC POWERGLIDE
7/2

9/2
6
LEAH CARROLL
9/2

6/1
5
DONT RIDE THE SLIDE
3/1

7/1
4
FRACTIONAL INTEREST
5/1

10/1
3
BAC TO LIFE
5/1

10/1




P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
1
ALL THATS CONSIDERED
1

5/1
Average
79

57

4.1

0.0

0.0
2
PYC POWERGLIDE
2

7/2
Fast/Trouble-prone
88

79

2.1

0.0

0.0
3
BAC TO LIFE
3

5/1
Average
82

67

0.0

0.0

0.0
4
FRACTIONAL INTEREST
4

5/1
Slow
84

67

8.0

0.0

0.0
5
DONT RIDE THE SLIDE
5

3/1
Average
80

77

3.7

0.0

0.0
6
LEAH CARROLL
6

9/2
Fast
80

75

2.1

0.0

0.0
7
DREAMLAND EXPRESS
7

7/2
Fast/Trouble-prone
74

67

1.9

0.0

0.0
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Old 08-01-2020, 09:42 AM
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Charles Town
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 8 - Claiming - 7.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $12000 Class Rating: 72

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF THREE RACES ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000, IF FOR $4,500, ALLOWED 2 LBS.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 10 SAVAGERY 8/5

# 2 NEGRONI UP 9/2

# 13 COMPROMISO 15/1

I think SAVAGERY is a solid choice. This gelding has a strong win percentage in dirt sprint races. Has been running admirably lately and should be close to the lead early on. Have to consider solely on class, with some of the top class figs of this field. NEGRONI UP - Like the finish positions in the last couple of events. Contreras has a solid 18 percent win rate with entries running at this distance and surface. COMPROMISO - This field of horses is much easier than the last one he ran against.
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Old 08-01-2020, 09:43 AM
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
PURCHASE

Bar

Woodbine - Race #1 - Post: 1:00pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $23,500 Class Rating: 60

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#1 UNCLE HOWARD (ML=3/1)
#3 NORTHERN SOLUTION (ML=6/1)
#4 TRINITY THUNDAH (ML=5/2)
#2 SLIPSHOD (ML=4/1)


UNCLE HOWARD - Looking at today's class figure, this horse is meeting an easier group than last time around the track at Woodbine. My cronies and I have made cash playing horses with this type of pace. Follow my advice and do the same. Pion has this magnificent animal racing well coming into today. Three strong speed figures in most recent events make me say this horse is the one to beat today. 'Blinkers On' is a time-honored positive angle in handicapping the races. NORTHERN SOLUTION - A big drop down in class rating points from his Jul 19th race at Woodbine. Based on that valuable data, I will give this thoroughbred the edge. You'll be generating money left and right by turning your racing money onto this jock/trainer combination. This gelding is rounding his way back into shape. Should perform well today. Horse has improved at least 2 Equibase speed fig points in last two races. I look for that positive trend to continue in this race. TRINITY THUNDAH - Looking over this gelding's PPs I see that the last time he tried this distance he got a speed rating that would be good enough to win today's contest. Jockey and conditioner do well when they combine forces. Hernandez and McKnight have been dependable together. Looking at today's class figure, this thoroughbred is meeting an easier group than in the last race at Woodbine. SLIPSHOD - The morning line odds on this gelding are higher than those of the other entrant from the shedrow of trainer McKnight. Often the longer-priced part of a 'split' entry wins. I like the fact that this first timer has been working over the same track he'll be making his debut on. Contreras and McKnight getting together are a horse gambler's friend.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 JOIN THE CLUB (ML=8/1),

JOIN THE CLUB - This gelding hasn't had any promising efforts in short distance contests in the last two months. Garnered a somewhat easily forgotten speed figure last time around the track in a $7,500 Maiden Claiming race on July 17th. Doubtful to see an improved performance off of that figure.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - TRINITY THUNDAH - Earnings per start is a sign of class. I often play horses like this one that are tops in the group in earnings per start.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Put your money on #1 UNCLE HOWARD on the nose if you can get odds of 7/2 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:
1 with [2,3,4]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
1 with [2,3,4] with [2,3,4] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
1 with [2,3,4] with [2,3,4] with [2,3,4] Total Cost: $6
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  #15  
Old 08-01-2020, 09:44 AM
goirish25 goirish25 is online now
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Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Trial - 300y on the Dirt. Purse: $1000 Class Rating: 72

QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR TWO YEAR OLDS WHO WERE NOMINATED AND REMAIN ELIGIBLE. $500 TO ENTER. WEIGHT 124 LBS.


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The Walker Group Picks

# 5 T HEART BONUS ROUND 20/1

# 3 LOW RISK HIGH RETURN 1/1

# 2 CONQUER THE RICHES 4/1

T HEART BONUS ROUND could be the bet in here and is a competitive value bet given the line at 20/1. Has to be given a shot against this group of horses in this race displaying very strong numbers lately and an average speed figure of 67 under similar conditions. She has to be given a shot given the very good speed numbers. Have to consider solely on class, with some of the most favorable class figs of this field. LOW RISK HIGH RETURN - With a strong 70 speed rating last time out, will clearly be a factor in this race. Reliable average Equibase Speed Figures in short races make this horse a definite contender. CONQUER THE RICHES - The speed fig of 61 from his most recent contest looks very good in here.
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  #16  
Old 08-01-2020, 09:45 AM
goirish25 goirish25 is online now
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Golden Gate Fields - Race #9 - Post: 5:15pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $9,500 Class Rating: 82

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#1 CAPE POINT (ML=2/1)
#2 PREMIER LEAGUE (ML=7/2)


CAPE POINT - Last race Jun 4th was pretty strong for a $12,500 Maiden Claiming race so this gelding's race wasn't all that bad. Last two speed figures (83, 87) were powerful. Anything close to that today and this one could win easily. This horse's last three speed figs (84, 83, 87) are equal to or higher than today's class rating. That's what I'll take to the betting window. Dropped in class in the last race, running against the same type today. PREMIER LEAGUE - I think this gelding is coming into top form. This jock and handler's horses have been generating a lucrative return on investment. This horse coming off a sharp effort in the last month is a contender in my opinion.

Vulnerable Contenders: #9 POUR ON THE COLE (ML=3/1), #5 DARKHAWK (ML=6/1),

POUR ON THE COLE - Should be difficult for this thoroughbred to beat this field off of that last speed fig. Improbable to improve enough to run a figure close enough to today's class figure, so put him on the questionable challengers list. DARKHAWK - 6/1 odds isn't enough for this entrant when looking at the most recent outings.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - CAPE POINT - According to my information, has the speed to wire-to-wire this field. With a competent ride by Frey, this one may win easily.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #1 CAPE POINT to win if you can get at least 3/2 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [1,2]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
1 with 2 with [4,5,9] Total Cost: $3

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPER HIGH FIVE WAGERS:
Pass
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  #17  
Old 08-01-2020, 09:46 AM
goirish25 goirish25 is online now
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08/01/20, SAR, Race 9, 5.42 ET
08/01/20,SAR,9,1 1/8M [Dirt] 1:46:03 STAKES. Whitney Stakes. Grade 1. Purse $750,000. FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD.
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Flags WPC ROI *
100.0000 3 Code of Honor 5/2 Velazquez J R McGaughey III Claude R EWC 37.78 1.91/$1
098.3879 5 Tom's d'Etat 6/5 Rosario J Stall. Jr. Albert M. SF 37.88 1.46/$1
097.5915 1 By My Standards 9/2 Ortiz J L Calhoun W. Bret 40.54 2.11/$1
097.5833 2 Improbable 5/2 Ortiz. Jr. I Baffert Bob JT 40.54 2.11/$1
095.6318 4 Mr. Buff 12-1 Alvarado J Kimmel John C. L 30.26 1.48/$1
* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 27.27, ROI 0.78/$1
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Old 08-01-2020, 11:08 AM
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Jeff Siegel's Saratoga/Del Mar Wagering Strategies - 8/1/20

August 1, 2020

Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Saratoga/Del Mar
Saturday, August 1, 2020
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
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The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

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Today’s Del Mar Best Plays:
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Third race. Post Time: 3:00 PT
5 – Freedom Fighter (2-1)

This may be the barn’s most advanced (and most talented) juvenile we’ve seen to date. The son of Violence has done everything in the a.m. like a top class prospect, breezing strongly without being asked for his best in each of his recent moves and outworking talented older horses. Obviously, in a five furlong dash he has to break with his field, but if he does the son of Violence should be able to win at first asking and go on to bigger and better things. At 2-1 on the morning line he’s a strong win play and rolling exotic single.

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Fifth Race. Post Time: 4:00 PT
5 – Polar Wind (8-1)

Simply stated, we loved his recent starter’s allowance race over this track and distance and expect the lightly-raced son of Super Saver to dangerous right back despite the raise in class to this first-level allowance level. Broke a bit slowly, moved up to be a second flight, stalking position inside in the deepest part of track, lost valuable momentum while in traffic on the turn, angled wide for room into the lane and accelerated impressively to roar past the leader in the final furlong to win going away with strong speed figure. He’s 8-1 on the morning line and is better than that. Let’s make him a win play and rolling exotic single.

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Seventh Race. Post Time: 5:00 PT
9 – Taming the Tigress (3-1)

Was well-meant in her debut three weeks ago but had everything go against her and under the circumstances did remarkably well to finish fifth, beaten less than two lengths. Drew the dreaded rail, was off slowly and veered in at the start, rushed up inside over the very deep footing and was in heavy traffic to the head of the lane, angled out and then responded as best she could but was unable to overcome the rugged trip. Much better drawn outside today, the P. Miller-trained filly should have every chance to display her true ability. There’s plenty of wagering value here at 3-1 on the morning line if you can get it.

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Ninth Race. Post Time: 6:00 PT
1 – Little Rachel (5-1)

Ran like she was worth the money when debuting for $40,000 in her debut sprinting on the main track, breaking slowly from the rail to fall far back but then producing an extended run through traffic to close a huge gap when second in a productive race in late May. She galloped out strongly (in front) as if to indicate she’ll appreciate more distance, and the daughter of Tapiture has the opportunity in this two-turn turf affair for maiden $62,500. From her good inside draw and assuming she leaves with her field, the V. Garcia-trained sophomore projects to draft into a good, ground-saving position and then have every chance from the head of the lane to the wire. At 5-1 on the morning line she’s a good gamble both in the win pool and in rolling exotic play.

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Today’s Saratoga Analysis and Wagering Strategies:
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RACE 1: Post 1:10 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Olympiad/1a-Outlier; 7-Winfromwithin; 8-Team Merchants

Forecast: This appears to be a fairly strong maiden special weight juvenile sprint. We’re still waiting to see a monster at this meeting; is there one in here? Team Merchants makes his debut for D. O’Neill, whose main string is at Del Mar. It seems unlikely that this colt would be at Saratoga unless his connections thought something of him, and the work tab is quite impressive for a barn that doesn’t usually ask much from its young stock in the a.m. The son of Nyquist recorded a bullet gate drill of :47 3/5 (fastest of 65), the third of three successive eye-catching drills that include a couple at Belmont Park before being vanned north. At 6-1 on the morning line he’s a gambling number. The entry has two major players and both look live. Outlier, from the S. Asmussen barn, is from the first crop of Not This Time out of a stakes winning mare and sports a :59 1/5 gate drill over the Saratoga main track last month followed by two easy breezes to have him on edge. His entry-mate, Olympiad, is a W. Mott-trained colt by Speightstown that brought $700,000 at Keeneland and shows two recent bullet drills to indicate he’s fit and ready. Winfromwithin has the benefit of a prior run, finishing second at odds-on at Belmont Park last month. It was a decent debut, one that should launch him to bigger and better things, especially with more distance to work with. It’s going to take a pretty good colt to win today’s opener.
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RACE 2: Post 1:43 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Fog Of War; 2-Spirit Animal

Forecast: Fog of War returns following an 11 month layoff; however, the barn is 28% with layoffs so we’ll assume this well-regarded colt is fit and ready. A beaten choice in the Secretariat S.-G1 when last seen, the Grade-1 winning son of War Front returns in a second-level allowance affair and should enjoy a ground-saving trip from the rail over a course he broke his maiden over in his debut last year. With a work tab that is designed to have him spot on, including a bullet five furlong turf training track drill around dogs (5f, 1:00.2b, fastest of 14) earlier this week, the C. Brown-trained colt is clearly the one to beat. Brown’s other starter, Spirit Animal, isn’t without a chance, and may be worth tossing in as a back-up or a saver. A voided claim in a restricted (nw-3) $50,000 claimer in mid-June at Belmont Park that produced a career-top speed figure, the son of Lemon Drop Kid clearly is healthy and looks very much improved over last year. Look for him to be running on late.
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RACE 3: Post 2:18 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Allied Invasion; 5-K. K. Ichikawa

Forecast: There’s not much to work with in this maiden claiming middle distance state-bred turf event, so we’ll go two-deep in our rolling exotics but otherwise pass the race. Allied Invasion has the C. Clement/J. Rosario team in his corner and that alone is enough to make him a major contender. The work tab, while certainly not fancy, should have him plenty fit, and clearly the son of Normandy Invasion won’t have to be a world beater to act with these. K. K. Ichikawa was a fair-to-moderate third in his debut vs. similar at Belmont Park in June and has a right to improve off that effort, especially with the addition of Lasix for a barn that shows reasonable stats with the second-time-starter angle. The Twirling Candy gelding also is adding Lasix, another reason to anticipate a forward move.
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RACE 4: Post 2:51 ET. Grade: B
Use: 3-Dreams of Tomorrow; 5-Ima Pharoah

Forecast: Dreams of Tomorrow is the 9/5 morning line favorite and deservedly so after just missing by a neck while seven lengths clear of the rest in a similar maiden sprint at Belmont Park in June. The son of Speightstown has the proper stalking style for this extended sprint trip, adds blinkers, and really doesn’t have a whole lot to beat in what appears to be below standard race for the level. Ima Pharoah is another adding blinkers for the first time and could improve enough to be serious threat. Second in all four starts but with below average numbers, the son of American Pharoah has burned plenty of money so far but should be part of what projects to be a moderate pace and could stick around for a long time. We’ll prefer Dreams of Tomorrow on top but include both in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 5: Post 3:28 ET. Grade: X
Single: 3-Midnight Bisou

Forecast: Midnight Bisou is listed at 2/5 on the morning line and could easily go 1/5 in this year’s edition of the Personal Ensign S.-G1, a race she won by a nose last year over Elate that produced her career top Beyer speed figure (104). She appears every bit as good now as last year, arguably even better. She’s a treat to watch, but obviously unplayable other than as a free bingo square in your rolling exotics.
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RACE 6: Post 4:02 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Mister Winston; 5-Foolish Ghost; 6-Stage Left; 7-Everfast

Forecast: Here’s a spread race with several contenders. On pure form Everfast is clearly the one to beat. The son of Take Charge Indy, runner-up in the Preakness last year and second to Owendale in the Blame S. at Churchill Downs in May, would appear to have a distinct class edge in this first-level allowance race, but he’s 1-for-18 in his career and is zero-for-the-last-two-years. The good news is that his reunited with J. Rosario, who got good run out of him in the Blame, so he can certainly win, but doesn’t have to. Let’s instead prefer Mister Winston slightly on top. The C. Brown-trained colt shortens to seven furlongs after being worn down late by the promising Creed in what was just his second career outing last month. The Lookin At Lucky colt may be best suited as a late-running sprinter and we’re expecting he’ll get the patient ride he needs this time from J. Castellano. A bullet half mile breeze over the Belmont Park training track (4f, :49.2b, fastest of 15) is an indication that he’s continuing to move forward. Stage Left earned a career-top speed figure when winning a restricted (nw-3) $50,000 claimer last time out at Belmont Park and with just 11 career starts probably has further improvement in him. The W. Ward-trained son of Congrats should settle into an ideal pace-stalking position and have every chance to kick on with it at the head of the lane. Foolish Ghost, first off the claim for B. Brown, will be the controlling speed and if not respected could take this field a long way. At 12-1 on the morning line, the Mineshaft gelding is worth including on a ticket or two as a back-up or a saver.
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RACE 7: Post 4:36 ET. Grade: B
Use: 6-Shawdyshawdyshawdy; 8-Modern Science

Forecast: Let’s try to boil down this maiden two-turn juvenile turf event to two main contenders. Shawdyshawdyshawdy looks quite intriguing at 8-1 on the morning line. Bred for turf (Summer Front) and from a barn that excels with debut runners, this homebred colt has done some good work in the a.m., including a five furlong team drill last week on the training track that was quite sharp. In a race in which the known element may be vulnerable, let’s go for a fresh face at a nice price. Modern Science was given a run at Ellis Park in his debut when fourth as the favorite in early July and should be much more serious today for the I. Wilkes/J. Rosario team that scored with a Kentucky shipper yesterday. This son of Galileo was far back early, moved quickly within range midway, was blocked behind a wall of horses from the 3/8ths pole to close home and never really had a chance to accelerate. We’ll get a pretty good line on what he’s made of today.
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RACE 8: Post 5:10 ET. Grade: B
Use: 7-Amano; 8-Reigning Spirit

Forecast: Maidens meet over 11 furlongs on turf, and there are at least two in the field that seem likely to enjoy the opportunity to race at this marathon trip. Amano is a progressing Temple City colt, and while he’s been beaten as the favorite in his first two starts this is the type of race he was bred to excel at. Hopefully he can maintain some contact early and not be given too much to do from the quarter pole home in a race that projects to have creepy-crawler early fractions. Reigning Spirit, runner-up in his last pair at Churchill Downs, isn’t quite as fast on pure figures as Amano but he exits a productive race, picks up J. Rosario, and is a son of the good staying mare Upperline, winner of the mile and one-half Dowager S. at Keeneland in her racing days. This 11-furlong journey should bring out his best.
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RACE 9: Post 5:42 ET. Grade: X
Single: 5-Tom’s d’Etat

Forecast: Tom’s d’Etat always has been very good, but he’s taken his game to a different level as a 7-year-old and will be a very short priced favorite to extend his winning streak to five in this year’s renewal of the Whitney S.-G1. The son of Smart Strike has recently beaten two of his main rivals – By My Standards in the Stephen Foster and Improbable in the Oaklawn Mile - and probably should be most concerned about Code of Honor, a perfect two-for-two over the local main track including the Travers S.-G1, and very respectable recent third in the Met Mile-G1. From a pace-projection standpoint, the sure fire controlling speed Mr. Buff will take them as far as he can, but Tom’s d’Etat should have no difficulty reeling him in whenever he so desires. Obviously, this is an unplayable race other than to use the favorite as a no-value rolling exotic single.
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RACE 10: Post 6:18 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 8-Three Technique; 11-Tap It to Win

Forecast: Let’s employ the horse-for-course theory to get this year’s edition of the H. Allen Jerkens S.-G1 down to just two main players. Tap It to Win, so impressive breaking his maiden over this track last year, has been freshened since the Belmont S.-G1 and should rebound in a huge way at this extended sprint trip that is made to order for his pace-forcing/stalking style. The M. Casse-trained colt has trained superbly since arriving at the Spa and should have every chance to bounce back from his cozy outside draw that will permit Johnny V. to dictate the trip. At 5-1 on the morning line the son of Tapit represents a good gamble. Three Technique has a powerful late kick that is most effective around one turn, and after being given some time off returns in a spot that will bring out his best. A winner over this track and distance when breaking his maiden last year, the son of Mr Speaker is reunited with “win rider” J. Ortiz and should lag early and blast home late. At 6-1 on the morning line, you have to use him.
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RACE 11: Post 6:50 ET. Grade: B
Use: 2-Cross Border; 6-Sadler’s Joy

Forecast: Cross Border returns in two weeks after a facile score in the Lubash S. for New York-bred horses in a race that was nothing more than a springboard to this more important event. A perfect four-for-four over the local turf course, the son of English Channel figures to be on the lead or in a comfortable stalking position (perhaps tracking Marzo) and then have his chance to seal the deal when the pressure is turned on. That said, this group usually takes turns, so maybe it’s time for Sadler’s Joy get back in the winner’s circle. Third in his last three starts but beaten less than a length in the Manhattan S.-G1 last time out, the veteran gelding is due for a bit luck and usually runs well over the Saratoga grass course. The pace figures to be on the dawdling side, but with good racing luck he’ll be in the fray in the final furlong.
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RACE 12: Post 7:22 ET. Grade: B
Use: 2-I’llhandalthecash; 7-Dalika

Forecast: Dalika has found her niche as a late-running turf sprinter. A middle distance performer most of her career, the German-bred filly shortened to win an overnight allowance grass dash at Churchill Downs two runs back in very impressive fashion, and then lost little in defeat when flying home but just running out of room when second in the listed License Fee S. last month at Belmont Park. A half mile blow out in :46 1/5 over the Saratoga training turf track (fastest of 31) indicates she’s razor sharp and ready to return to winning form, although her late-running style can be susceptible to traffic trouble, especially in a 10-runner field. I’llhandalthecash just held off Dalika in the License Fee S., while on the pace throughout while recording a career-top speed figure, and similar pace-forcing tactics are sure to be employed again. She’s won over the local lawn in the past and probably has further improvement in her. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Dalika.
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