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  #26  
Old 05-17-2019, 04:39 PM
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Updated track pari-mutuel odds for the Preakness


1 - War Of Will ... 7
2 - Bourbon War ... 9-2
3 - Warrior's Charge ... 18
4 - Improbable ... 5-2
5 - Owendale ... 10
6 - Market King ... 30
7 - Alwaysmining ... 5
8 - Signalman ... 18
9 - Bodexpress ... 22
10 - Everfast ... 30
11 - Laughing Fox ... 24
12 - Anothertwistafate ... 13
13 - Win Win Win ....11
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  #27  
Old 05-17-2019, 04:45 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kbsooner21 View Post
Is this the worst Preakness field of all time?

D. Wayne Lukas on popularity of this year's Preakness ...

"85 or 90% of the people that are going to be here will not come for the race. They are coming for the block party, the infield. 10% of the degenerates are going to be trying to figure out who is going to win."
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  #28  
Old 05-17-2019, 04:54 PM
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$2 Will Pays for the Black-Eyed Susan-Preakness double



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Old 05-17-2019, 05:10 PM
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Trying to identify one wise-guy horse for the Preakness Stakes is like choosing between your children. Every new shooter has his advocates.


But nothing illuminates the dark recesses of hyper-analysis like the betting handle. And the early money for Saturday’s $1.65 million race has drifted toward Bourbon War.

After being posted at 12-1 on the morning line, the Fountain of Youth runner-up that was last seen finishing fourth in the Florida Derby had shortened to 9-2 by late afternoon Friday here at Pimlico. While the exact number of dollars in the Preakness win pool was not immediately available, this was a little like gauging a presidential election by those morning returns coming out of Dixville Notch, N.H., every four years.

Even so, bettors are clearly attracted by the fact that Bourbon War is a closer that should relish the likelihood of a fast, early pace from fellow new shooters Market King (30-1) and Warrior’s Charge (18-1).

“Obviously the more pace, the better for him,” Bourbon War’s trainer Mark Hennig said. “I visualize the speed inside of him clearing us giving him a little space to work with.”

Since Bourbon War will break from post position 2, “the speed inside of him” is War Of Will (7-1), drawn to the rail as he was when he crossed eighth and was promoted to seventh in the Kentucky Derby. That was after he had been fouled 550 yards before the wire by disqualified winner Maximum Security. Likely to be sent forward early, War Of Will’s void on the rail is likely to be filled by Bourbon War and his talented jockey Írad Ortiz Jr.

“He doesn’t mind running inside,” Hennig said. “I’d like him to try and save ground in mid-pack, maybe a little closer than he’s been.”

Hennig is leaving nothing to chance with his decision to concede less of a lead to the early pacesetters. He said that is why he is fitting Bourbon War for the first time with blinkers, a curious change for a horse that has never been closer than seventh place a quarter-mile into his 2019 races.

“I thought maybe with the short-cup blinkers, it would get him a little more on the bridle, not necessarily to get him closer to the pace,” Hennig said.

It is hardly unusual for trainers to make adjustments early in the careers of Tapit colts like Bourbon War. Tapits tend toward the ornery, and horsemen are wont to get their attention.

“He’s great at relaxing and shutting off and waiting for (Ortiz),” Hennig said. “But the reins weren’t tight for the jock, so when the jock asked him it seemed to take him three or four jumps to get into that good stride.”

Of course, the move could backfire; Hennig’s horses had only three wins the last 38 times they raced with blinkers for the first time. But bettors looking for a price clearly gravitated to Bourbon War. They were also drawn to local favorite Alwaysmining. The winner of six in a row here in Maryland shortened from 8-1 to 5-1.

The favorite Improbable remained on his morning-line target of 5-2.


It has not rained here at Pimlico since Thursday at about 8:30 a.m. EDT. Friday was a humid but welcome 83 degrees in sunshine. The National Weather Service forecast for Saturday is for more sun, light wind and a high near 78.
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  #30  
Old 05-17-2019, 05:19 PM
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A filly collapsed and died while running at Pimlico Race Course on Friday


Congrats Gal faltered in the upper stretch of the Miss Preakness Stakes in 83-degree heat and was eased to the finish line.

The Florida-bred 3-year-old was running her sixth career race. She came in last in the eighth race on the card and fell to the dirt about 100 yards past the finish line.

Clearly distraught, Congrats Gal jockey Trevor McCarthy said the filly felt hot walking on the track before the race. As a medical team rushed to the scene, McCarthy said, “She’s clearly sound. Nothing’s broken or anything like that.”

After being treated on the scene, Congrats Gal was taken from the track by ambulance.

The Stronach Group, which owns Pimlico, and the Maryland Jockey Club confirmed the death in a statement: “Commission veterinarians attended to the horse immediately. A full necropsy will be performed to try to determine the cause of death.”


Owned by Charles Biggs, Congrats Gal was sired by A.P. Indy. She had a 3-1-1 record going into the race with winnings of $134,740
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  #31  
Old 05-18-2019, 10:40 AM
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Anyone see Demlings Pick?
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  #32  
Old 05-18-2019, 01:42 PM
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The horse racing algorithm picked five horses for the Derby. Three of those horses came in 2nd, 3rd & 4th ... Didn't have Country House

Algorithm ranking (price & probability):

#2 Bourbon War
#5 Owendale
#7 Always Mining
#4 Improbable
#3 Warriors Charge
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  #33  
Old 05-18-2019, 01:43 PM
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The longshot algorithm looks for overlays that have a much higher probability of winning than the current odds they are paying. I

The longshot algorithm has selected ...

#8 Signalman and #3 Warriors Charge
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  #34  
Old 05-18-2019, 01:44 PM
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The exacta/trifecta algorithm selected the optimum layout on price/probability/power ...

1st) #2 Bourbon War, #5 Owendale

2nd) #1 War of Will, #2 Bourbon War, #3 Warriors Charge, #4 Improbable, #5 Owendale, #7 Always Mining, #8 Signalman

3rd) ALL

$1 Tri = $132
$2 EX = $24
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  #35  
Old 05-18-2019, 01:45 PM
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Sharp match-ups posted for the Derby ended up going 4-0

Let's see how the sharp action does in the Preakness

These are the match-ups seeing sharp $$ ...

Warriors Charge -111 over Win Win Win
Bodexpress -125 over Laughing Fox
Anothertwistafate +138 over War of Will
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  #36  
Old 05-18-2019, 02:29 PM
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Not a big sample today with so many turf races, but the three dirt races have been won from near the lead (two turns), from mid-pack (sprint) and gate-to-wire (sprint)
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  #37  
Old 05-18-2019, 02:37 PM
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New York Knight Great Stuff Again!!
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  #38  
Old 05-18-2019, 03:41 PM
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Glad to help

Good Luck
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  #39  
Old 05-18-2019, 03:42 PM
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A few hours before the Preakness Stakes, there was no surprise with which horse remained the favorite. Improbable, who took fourth in the Kentucky Derby, was the 3/1 top choice for the second leg of the Triple Crown races.

From there, though, things have gotten interesting, primarily with a Maryland-based horse getting some home-state attention at Pimlico.


“Improbable being the favorite is definitely what we expected,” Ed DeRosa, director of marketing for TwinSpires.com, said on Saturday afternoon, ahead of the 6:48 p.m. ET post time. “The biggest surprise is that Alwaysmining is the second choice. Bourbon War is the third choice. I figured he’d be one of the wiseguy selections, and he is.

“War of Will, whom I actually thought would be the co-favorite with Improbable, is the fourth choice. So he’s taking less money than I expected. I liked him and thought he might be 3/1 or 4/1, so it’s surprising that he’s at 6/1.”

Improbable will break from the No. 4 post, with War of Will on the rail, Bourbon War in the No. 2 slot and Alwaysmining in the No. 7 post.

DeRosa said Thursday that he liked another Derby holdover, Bodexpress, as a potential longer-shot pick. That’s still the case for the No. 9 horse, who’s in the 20/1 range, but another thoroughbred was on DeRosa’s dark-horse radar, too.

“A horse that’s taken a little less than I expected is No. 11, Laughing Fox. I thought he might be 20/1, but he’s 25/1,” DeRosa said. “If people are wondering about a long shot, he’s one I like. His odds should be lower than they are. He’d be like taking a Butler in the NCAA Tournament.”

Earlier this week, DeRosa said he felt up to half a dozen horses have a legitimate shot today, and that the only winner that would surprise him would be Everfast, the longest shot at 50/1. With a wide-open 13-horse field, minus disqualified Derby winner Maximum Security and elevated Derby winner Country House, DeRosa reiterated Saturday that this year’s Preakness provides a great opportunity to score big on one’s wagers.

“These big racing days, there’s so much more casual money,” he said. “It’s a good day to take a swing, and it’s a good ego boost if you’re able to say you had the winner in the Preakness.”
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  #40  
Old 05-18-2019, 04:08 PM
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5:05pm EDT: Track odds


1 - War Of Will ... 6
2 - Bourbon War ... 9-2
3 - Warrior's Charge ... 15
4 - Improbable ... 3
5 - Owendale ... 8
6 - Market King ... 25
7 - Alwaysmining ... 6
8 - Signalman ... 21
9 - Bodexpress ... 16
10 - Everfast ... 22
11 - Laughing Fox ... 16
12 - Anothertwistafate ... 14
13 - Win Win Win ....12
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  #41  
Old 05-18-2019, 04:16 PM
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Chris Fallica

Here are some suggested plays. I will use a $1 base on exotics for easy math. Adjust to your handicapping and bankroll as desired.


$5 WPS 5, 12, 13 ($45)

$2 Exacta Box 4-5-8-12-13 ($40)

$2 Exacta 4-5-12-13/2-4-5-8-9-11-12-13 ($56)

$1 Exacta 2-4-5-8-9-11-12-13/4-5-12-13 ($28)

$1 Trifecta 4/5-12-13/all ($33)

$1 Trifecta 4/5-12-13/1-2-3-5-8-9-11-12-13 ($21)

$1 Trifecta 5-12-13/4/all ($33)

$1 Trifecta 5-12-13/4/1-2-3-5-8-9-11-12-13 ($21)

$1 Trifecta 4/1-2-3-5-8-9-11-12-13/5-12-13 ($21)

$1 Trifecta 5-12-13/1-2-3-5-8-9-11-12-13/4 ($21)
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  #42  
Old 05-18-2019, 04:18 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by scrub View Post
Anyone see Demlings Pick?

1. Improbable
2. War of Will
3 Bourbon War
4 Owendale
5. Another twist of fate
6. Always Mining
7. Win Win Win
8 Signalman
9. Laughing Fox


2.00 Exacta 4/all

1.00 Exact 1 with 2,4,5,7,12,13

.50 Tri 1,4 with 1245 with 1,2,4,5,7,8,12,13
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  #43  
Old 05-18-2019, 04:47 PM
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The Greek Sportsbook

A little bit of sharp action on Alwaysminin
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  #44  
Old 05-18-2019, 04:52 PM
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Sports Investment Group Las Vegas


Race 13

4-13-2
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  #45  
Old 05-18-2019, 05:38 PM
donls0419 donls0419 is offline
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HANK GOLDBERG
EXBOX 2,3,4,5
Superfecta Box 2 with 3,4,5,7 with 3,4,5,7 with 3,4,5,7
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  #46  
Old 05-18-2019, 11:04 PM
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Rovell ...


$99.8 million bet on the Preakness. A record, despite the lack of the appeal of the race itself. Think it says more about the state of gambling than anything about the horse industry.


Totally agree.
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