Horse Racing 12-1-20

[goirish25]

[goirish25]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Mountaineer - Race #1
Picks Notes
#1 Crimson Ride Went evenly most of the way in the debut before fading a bit late, but the added ground should work in her favor with a pedigree that hints she'll handle the trip.
#8 Carry On Claimed out of the $15,000 debut at Keeneland, and she is another with a pedigree to go long. Tough to discount the barn, but I wouldn't be too thrilled about a prohibitive price here.
#7 Little Empire Distant third in the first route try, but she made a big move into the lane that day before flattening, and she may sustain that rally better with that route run under her belt.
Race Summary Crimson Ride is bred to handle the added ground while stretching out, and the price may be fair with Carry On likely to take some cash for a hot barn.

Mountaineer - Race #7
Picks Notes
#7 He's Reckless Has shown better form on the main track, so the surface switch could work in his favor in this spot. Thinking something like the FP tries might do.
#6 Illuminati The one to beat is listed at 3/5 on the ML, and while something like his last might do the trick, he doesn't feel like a 3/5 shot on paper to me, so I'll take a stand against here if he gets bet.
#5 Hero of Perfection Steps up after showing some pace with cheaper, and he may be able to stick around for an underneath piece while showing the way early with the chalk.
Race Summary He's Reckless has some bounce-back potential after a couple of turf tries, and the price may be right with Illuminati likely to take his share of cash.

Mountaineer - Race #8
Picks Notes
#1 Van Damme A couple of pace elements may set things up for this guy to have a run at the leaders in the lane, and he was competitive with similar here last year.
#9 Fleet Irish Easily handled similar in late October in his only local start, and while the rest of his form is nothing to write home about, he proved a good fit with this kind and is a threat with the locals again.
#10 Levanto Surprisingly dull run last time out when showing little at even money, but he's generally a good fit with this kind and can bounce back at a better price today.
Race Summary Van Damme might get the right kind of setup with these from off the pace, and his recent form stacks up nicely with what it'd take to handle these.

[goirish25]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

The Meadows - Race #2
Picks Notes
#1 NEZBLANC Romped two back, sustained wide rally in follow-up, good value play.
#2 TUESDAY MORNING Rallied for a win, second and a third in last six starts, price attached.
#7 HEIDI’S HEART Rallied for minor awards in her last four starts out of town.
Race Summary Nezblanc draws the rail while in top form. He launched a 3- and 4-wide bid near the ¾-mile mark and just missed second. He benefited when the race favorite went off stride twice. Play 1-2 and 1-7 exactas.

Northfield Park - Race #1
Picks Notes
#1 SCIROCCO ROCBOOGIE No threat to runaway fave, appears rounding to good race.
#9 SPIRITUAL SON Was 1-2 at stretch call in four straight before break in latest.
#3 WHISKEYFORTHELADY Filly finished in the money in 8 of 13 starts this year.
Race Summary Scirocco Rocboogie got up for third behind the runaway, even money winner. He projects an ideal stalking trip from the rail with plenty of pace up ahead. Play 1-3 and 1-9 exactas.

Yonkers - Race #2
Picks Notes
#2 INTEROVER Discount latest, looms forward factor at 6-1 odds off prior start.
#5 CON AIR HALL Made up ground from post 8, can surpass $50k in yearly earnings.
#7 IN MY DREAMS Led until stretch in front-end assignment, held third, moves inside out.
Race Summary Interover, no factor from post 8 on the class drop to this level, ran well enough in his race prior to win here. He was shuffled behind the back-pedaling pocket-sitter while the odds-on favorite ran away from the field. He finished willingly on the rail and should be forwardly placed throughout today.

[goirish25]

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Mahoning Valley - Race #4
Picks Notes
#1 Totellyouthetruth Held fourth in a similar spot at Thistledown and has won a couple of races over this strip; Ohio-bred has held his own vs. open company.
#3 Winchester Limit Set the pace in his last two and was caught late in each; has shown a lot of speed lately but can revert to a few races on his form in which he showed late interest.
#4 Lazarus Project Was third vs. bottom claimers at Saratoga in July and most recently was fifth at Mountaineer; can improve in his second start for Bernardini.
Race Summary Totellyouthetruth can carve a decent trip just off the pace and will be in a good spot when the front-end battlers lose their edge.

Mahoning Valley - Race #6
Picks Notes
#6 Caloric Has spent much of his time on all-weather surfaces but has done it vs. strong company; was a closing fourth in Turfway's Forego early in the year and has been getting outrun in some tough spots at Presque Isle lately. Half of his four wins came over conventional tracks.
#7 Montauk Cove Looks like the fave after three straight win, the last two vs. solid company; serious front-end threat today.
#8 Big Trip Just missed in his last one at Thistledown and despite the step up in class brings on speed to the game.
Race Summary Caloric has been up against much better and can benefit from a peppy pace in front of him; can be rollling from the back of the pack.

Mahoning Valley - Race #8
Picks Notes
#6 Ohio Munny Was along for fourth vs. similar last time and can improve in his second of the claim by Londono; can be a quality stalker in this spot.
#9 Quality Man Was second in three of his last four and won one three races back; is in good form and has the speed to be dangerous.
#8 Tapaway Turns back from longer races vs. similar and likely will have plenty left for a good rally; dangerous.
Race Summary Ohio Munny can get a good run just off the pace and can get first move on the deep closers.

[goirish25]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Parx Racing
PURCHASE
Parx Racing - Race 5

Daily Double / Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7) Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 50 cent Pick 4 (Races 5-8) / 10 cent Superfecta


Claiming $16,000 • 7 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 83 • Purse: $20,000 • Post: 2:13P
(PLUS UP TO 40% PABF) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 1 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000.
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Lone Front-runner. JW'S THIRD MISCHIE is the Lone Front-runner of the race, but has been deemed a non-contender due to a low Platinum Figure or other overall low ratings. * KEY ANGLES * KID D'ORO: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Jockey/Trainer combination win percentage is at least 30. NAUGHTY PRINCE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. TOWN JAK: Horse has run a Go od Race within the last 30 days. Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs. MISSION OBERON: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the dist ance/surface.
2
KID D'ORO
3/1

5/1
4
NAUGHTY PRINCE
9/2

6/1
8
TOWN JAK
7/2

7/1
1
MISSION OBERON
15/1

8/1




P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
3
JW'S THIRD MISCHIE
3

15/1
Front-runner
71

51

65.2

60.4

45.9
2
KID D'ORO
2

3/1
Stalker
79

85

70.6

76.4

73.4
4
NAUGHTY PRINCE
4

9/2
Stalker
84

84

45.8

78.6

71.1
8
TOWN JAK
8

7/2
Alternator/Stalker
82

81

54.4

72.0

63.5
10
DRAMATIZED
10

20/1
Alternator/Stalker
85

76

53.8

42.2

29.2
6
KID MACHO
6

5/1
Trailer
81

77

35.2

58.6

45.1
5
STRICTLY THE BEST
5

6/1
Trailer
76

77

33.8

69.0

58.0
7
ROAN MOUNTAIN
7

8/1
Trailer
84

75

27.4

71.6

58.1
1
MISSION OBERON
1

15/1
Alternator/Trailer
83

87

57.8

71.0

58.0
9
SARGEANT DRIVE
9

12/1
Alternator/Non-contender
80

67

46.0

66.6

57.1

[goirish25]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Mahoning Valley Race Course
PURCHASE
Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race 6

Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta / 50 cent Pick 3 (Races 6-7-8)


Allowance • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 93 • Purse: $21,800 • Post: 3:04P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR OHIO BRED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 125 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 1 ALLOWED 2 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $15,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN WEIGHT ALLOWANCES).
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. MONTAUK COVE is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * MONTAUK COVE: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/su rface. Jockey/Trainer combination win percentage is at least 30. BIG TRIP: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at leas t +20.
7
MONTAUK COVE
8/5

2/1
8
BIG TRIP
6/1

5/1




P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
7
MONTAUK COVE
8

8/5
Front-runner
97

94

84.6

89.4

85.9
8
BIG TRIP
9

6/1
Front-runner
84

88

75.4

81.2

70.7
6
CALORIC
7

8/1
Alternator/Stalker
94

84

46.6

81.4

70.9
2
LET'SCALLITEVEN
1

4/1
Trailer
96

82

61.6

85.3

80.3
1A
GUCCISSIMO
5

10/1
Trailer
81

67

45.8

68.4

52.4
5
COINCIDENTALLY
6

7/2
Alternator/Non-contender
89

79

60.2

79.2

69.7
3
BAD LITTLE BEAST
3

15/1
Alternator/Non-contender
83

84

54.2

68.6

58.6
1
JAMAICAN MAGIC
2

10/1
Alternator/Non-contender
77

66

43.4

72.2

58.2
4
FUNNEL CAKE
4

15/1
Alternator/Non-contender
92

75

41.3

63.9

53.9

[goirish25]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mahoning Valley Race Course
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Maiden Special Weight - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $20000 Class Rating: 72

FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 125 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 2 NO MAS 5/2

# 4 AXIS 2/1

# 2B JENNSTONE 5/2

NO MAS is the strongest bet in this race. He must be carefully examined given the quite good speed numbers. With Keiser in the saddle guiding him, this gelding should be able to break out sharply in this event. With a very good 70 speed figure last time out, will clearly be a factor in this contest. AXIS - Will almost certainly go to the lead and may never look back. Earnings per start in dirt sprint races is sound for this equine. JENNSTONE - Has to be carefully examined against this group of horses in this race displaying solid figures lately and an average Equibase Speed Fig of 51 under similar conditions. With a strong 53 Equibase Speed Figure last time out, will surely be a factor in this competition.

[goirish25]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Delta Downs
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $13000 Class Rating: 82

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 1 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 11 FLASHYBOY BOBB 3/1

# 7 MUTINEER 12/1

# 8 SUCH 15/1

I've got to go with FLASHYBOY BOBB. This gelding looks good in this event since Ramirez has a strong win percentage with horses going this distance. Have to sense that this horse will do well again this time out. Should be carefully examined in this race if only for the solid Equibase speed fig posted in the last race. MUTINEER - Must be carefully examined given the class of races run lately. Has been running admirably and has among the most competitive speed in the race for today's distance.

[goirish25]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
PURCHASE

Bar

Zia Park - Race #7 - Post: 2:42pm - Maiden Special - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $14,000 Class Rating: 59

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#2 UPTOWN JERSEY GIRL (ML=8/1)
#8 TIZ TENACIOUS (ML=9/2)


UPTOWN JERSEY GIRL - Gomez and Woolley perform well when they team up. It's hard to beat a +32 ROI for a jockey and conditioner. This filly is the longer price of the 'split' entry from the barn of Woolley. TIZ TENACIOUS - I expect this mount to shock some railbirds this time out.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 PREMEDITATED LILY (ML=5/2), #4 MICHELLE WHO (ML=7/2), #1 UNIQUE BABE (ML=4/1),

PREMEDITATED LILY - This morning-line choice ran on November 4th and hasn't had a work after that. MICHELLE WHO - In any race of 6 furlongs, I like to play a contender that has been on the board in short distance affairs lately. UNIQUE BABE - Doesn't appear to be worth 4/1 in today's event. Pass on her this time.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Putting our cash on #2 UPTOWN JERSEY GIRL to win. Have to have odds of at least 7/5 or better though

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [2,8]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None