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Old 04-12-2019, 04:46 AM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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Baseball system...4/12

Years ago back in the day, me and some friends used a simple system to get a kind of team powerrating for each game. there were 5 of us. we divided the teams up 6 each and tracked the starters and bullpen by hand. when each starter had min. of 2 games could play them. when had 2 games H/R could play them using H/R stats. it won more than lost. I found what I needed on sports-reference and set up a little data base for it. yesterday was the first day I did it. it went 8-1. (it did have tor over Bos. Only do sides). will post the plays today. not sure I can do it everyday. but, will explain how I do it later so any of you can use it if you want.
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Old 04-12-2019, 05:09 AM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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here are the sides it has for 4/12. It seems to be my luck that as soon as I post something , it bombs. so if you use this use it as a baseline. Might work well with trends or using sharp/public info with it.

4/12 games w/Listed starters & bullpen factored in

wash (-160) 5.6 Pit 3.7
phil (-170) 4.1 Mia 1.6
atl (-120) 9.6 NYM 6.5
sd (-120) 6.5 az 3.8
LAD (-160) 9.6 Mil 4.3
SF (-125) 6.6 col 1.6

nyy (-235) 6.5 CWS 5.4 (dog worth a look at this price)

TB (-130) 6.7 Tor .7

Bal (+251) 7.0 bos 5.2 … big dog...shouldn't surprise anyone

Oak (-119) 6.3 Tex 5.2

Det (+150) 4.8 Minn 4.4 … Dog ...PPD
KC(+130) 5.3 CLE 2.6 … DOG
Sea (+125) 5.8 Hou 4.7 .. DOG
LAA (+138) 4.8 CHC 3.9
anyway...hope this helps somebody...
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Old 04-12-2019, 08:43 AM
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Old 04-12-2019, 09:20 AM
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Thx 2B
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Old 04-12-2019, 10:35 AM
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Old 04-12-2019, 10:41 AM
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Old 04-14-2019, 07:13 AM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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Missed 4/13 plays...storm rolled in and wiped out my electric while I was calculating them. didn't come back on til midnight.

today's 4/14 system games...NoPlay indicates both starters didn't have 2 starts.

phil (-175) . .. NO PLAY
wash (-180) 7.8 Pitt 4.2
Stl (-120) 5.2 Cinn 3.6
SF (+115) 1.5 COL 1.0 ...Looks seriously under
SD (+115) 8.7 AZ 5.1 .. DOG
MIL 6.0 (+125) LAD 5.9 Dog might appeal
NYM (-150) 6.9 Atl 5.3
NYY (-180) 6.1 CWS 2.7
bos (-260) NoPlay
TAB (-140) 5.2 Tor 1.2
MN (-195) 4.8 Det 1.4
cle (-145 6.5 KC 4.3
Oak (-140) 4.3 Tex 3.2

SEA (+140) 6.9 Hou 3.5 Dog

cubs (-155) NoPlay


GL
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Old 04-14-2019, 09:30 AM
Sweetleaf22 Sweetleaf22 is offline
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Old 04-23-2019, 09:12 AM
grecycle99 grecycle99 is offline
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Hey coach. Thanks for your hard work.

Can you explain how you calculate this?

And if you want, I could help you

GL
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Old 04-23-2019, 10:07 PM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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grecycle99 … do you have Microsoft office excel?
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Old 04-24-2019, 03:18 AM
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here is how we did it back in the day. pre-internet. using boxscores from the daily paper.
so much easier now.
I will do an example game for ya'. from 4/23 Arizona vs Pittsburgh weaver vs Williams.

rate team runs/g & starting pitcher & bullpen. sports-ref makes it real easy to do it.

go to sports-reference.com goto 2019 season/AL team stats/batting.
write down each teams Runs/g. then at the bottom write down the AL runs/g.

for AL avg team scores 4.7 runs/g … For NL 4.6

for Az 5.4, Pitt 3.6

Now hover mouse over teams and all the teams will spear. move mouse over 'Arizona' and click. then scroll down a little and click on 'Pitching'
They make it real easy for ya'. pitchers are grouped by starters 'sp' and relievers 'RP'
then at bottom pitchers with ' ' for pos. more relievers.
find weaver you will see he started 4 games pitched 20.2 innings (change to 20.7) and he allowed 10 runs (I use runs because an unearned run will beat you just like and earned one). divide ip by games (20.7/4 = 5.2 ) divide runs by games (10/4 = 2.5....
weaver would be expected to go 5.2 innings and allow 2.5 runs.
Now the bullpen. total up the inning whole numbers first (example 14.2 , drop the .2 and just total the 14) don't include pitchers who are on the 40-man roster, 10-day DL or who have started a game. after you get a total of the whole numbers for AZ BP yesterday was 70 (dropping the .1s and .2s), go back and total up the .1s and .2s. once again not including someone who started a game, 40-man roster or 10-day DL.

yesterday it would total .6 for the relievers. divide that by .3= 2
. add that to the whole innings 70+2 = 72.

Now total bull pen runs (once again eliminate anyone who started a game, 40-man roster, 10-day dl) total for yesterday is 44.
ok, the bullpen allowed 44 runs in 72 innings. now, divide runs/ip = 44/72 = .61

bullpen allows .61 runs per inning. this includes inherited runners.
Now get total game pitching. weaver expected to go 5.2 inn, allow 2.5 runs. that leaves 3.8 inn for bull pen @ .61 RUN PER INNING. 3.8 * .61 = 2.3.
then add 2.5 +2.3 Az projected to allow 4.8 runs
Then do the same thing with Pit start Williams and Pit bull pen. you would have gotten Williams 6.1 Proj inn and 2 Proj runs allowed. Pit bull Pen little better allowing .51 runs per inning. so proj bp innings for pit 9 - 6.1 = 2.9 * .51 = 1.5
so pitt pitchers proj to allow 3.5 runs to az...
now take runs scored by each team and adjust it by the team pitching proj runs allowed adjusted by runs/g for the league.
formula is this pitt runs/g +Az RunsAll/g - NL Avg runs/G
3.6+3.5-4.6 = 2.5 Proj runs Pitt vs Az pitching on 4/23 - 2.5 runs. doing same for AZ
5.4+4.8-4.6 = 5.6 Proj runs Az vs Pit Pitching on 4/23 - 5.6 runs.
Arizona won the game 2-1, weaver went 6, allowed 1 run, BP 2 IP, allowed 0.
Williams went 7, allowed 2 runs, BP 3 IP, allowed 0

the games that stand out using this are 2 categories. Good pitchers deGrom, verlander and the like. Tampa's entire staff. everybody already knows them and you will pay heaby price to bet them. the best category was dogs.
We would uncover some pretty good dogs and some fairly big ones with it. especially later on in the season. I started to try to do it. but, doing it for 30 teams every day was more than I could manage. WE also used regression which involved tracking team scoring and difference from projected score by day, starter runs allowed & diff from projected & bull Pen runs allowed/per Inn and diff from projected. but, that is time consuming as well. Hope this helps you. If you have any questions, feel free to contact me here.
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Old 04-26-2019, 06:06 AM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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forgot this...

grecycle99:
I don't know if you looked at this stuff or not. but, I forgot to mention, If a pitcher (mainly relievers) has both starts and reliefs, you can click on his name and then click on gamelogs and it will bring up his appearances in game order & whether he started or relieved.

One other thing, I believe on starting and relief pitches, we did use their earned runs. you still have to total up the ip and ER for relievers. but for starters, you can get their er per IP by ERA *(AVGIP/9)
GL

Last edited by southerncoach; 04-26-2019 at 06:14 AM. Reason: Left something out
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Old 04-26-2019, 04:14 PM
Sweetleaf22 Sweetleaf22 is offline
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Old 04-29-2019, 09:34 AM
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Couldn't put this thing down. Just a born tinkerer, I guess. been tweaking this stat system and I believe I have improved it. Have it in a database now. not so painful to figure. last 3 days, it went 2-1,3-0 and 7-2. Now that i'm gonna post the plays, watch this sucker go 0-3 …

4/29 …
atl -160 over SD
Oak +129 over Boston
CWS -135 over Baltimore

GL
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Old 04-29-2019, 09:42 AM
fat-freddie fat-freddie is offline
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Thanks for this heavy info Coach, good luck tonight, keep it going buddy
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Old 04-29-2019, 09:44 AM
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Old 04-29-2019, 10:07 AM
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Old 04-29-2019, 11:13 AM
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Old 04-30-2019, 01:15 PM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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2-1 yest, I believe...

today... listed pitchers...5 games, 3 of them pretty big favs...
would recommend instead of betting 170, 190 or 200 to win 100, RISK 100 to win less. On a -200 line, you would be betting 100 to win 50. If you lose a -200 game, you have to win 2 just to break even...Not a good strategy, I think...


Stl -105 over Wash

TB -170 over KC

LAA -150 over TOR

Phil -190 over DET

CLE -200 over Mia

GL
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Old 04-30-2019, 01:41 PM
Dale City Dale City is offline
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Old 04-30-2019, 01:55 PM
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Old 05-01-2019, 08:53 AM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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3-1 yesterday. 1 rain out. risked 405 to win 267. won 109

today 3 plays … listed pitchers

TB #2 -198 (snell vs Sparkman) risk 100 to win 50.50
CWS #1 -176 (Hess vs rodon) risk 100 to win 56.81
LAD -139 (ryu vs bumgardner) risk 139 to winn 100

gl

will be out of town tomorrow. may not be able to post...
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Old 05-01-2019, 09:13 AM
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Old 05-01-2019, 10:13 AM
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Old 05-01-2019, 11:50 AM
fat-freddie fat-freddie is offline
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Thanks for showing us the hot hand Coach, thanks for the post buddy
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