Go Back   Sports Handicapping at cappersmall > >

MLB Baseball MLB Handicapping - Post your MLB picks, talk MLB betting - all baseball.

Likes Likes:  0
Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 07-09-2019, 07:25 PM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2018
Posts: 447
Rewards: 1,610
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 0
Likes (Received): 86
Saw this article about 1st half Season Trends...thought i'd share it ...

Was goofin' around on the web and found this about the first half of the season. Thought it might be interesting to read for some. I didn't have much luck in the 1st half. Made out ok in April following GG, In May, won with some unpopular favs, So many > -150 & > -200 even -300 lines, some days can't get excited about much. Dogs were having a rough go of it after April, it seems.
1st week in July, started fading NYY, Hou , MInn, LAD as HFs. all winning more than 60%. Due for some regression, I think. Gettin' some pretty good odds as well. Atlanta may be worth a look too. they are at 59%.
Taking Toronto, KC, Balt, DET & MIA as RDs seems to be a good idea to me, as well. They are all winning < 40%. Maybe some (whatever the opposite of regression is) there too.
When these 2 groups meet each other, you'd get your best odds.
anyway, hope this helps some win some cash...
The article is below...
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The 2019 MLB All-Star Break is officially upon us. Although most teams have played between 88 and 91 games so far — roughly 54% to 56% of the 162-game schedule — this marks the unofficial halfway point of the season.
While most bettors will sit back and watch the Home Run Derby, the Midsummer Classic and enjoy some much-needed downtime from the daily grind of baseball betting, the hardcore baseball die-hards will be busy doing their homework over the next few days. Seamheads will be diving into the first half betting stats to learn what went right, what went wrong and how they can capitalize on specific edges in preparation for the second half.Hhere are the major betting takeaways form the first half of the MLB season.
Here are the major betting takeaways form the first half of the MLB season.
Favorites Dominated
Favorites finished the first half of the season 798-545 (59.4%), winning 2.2 units. This means that a $100-bettor taking every favorite ended up winning $220.
This might not seem like much of a profit, but you have to remember that historically favorites are a massive loser. Sure, they’ll win more games than they lose, but because you’re laying a big minus number (-120, -150, -200), you end up losing big in the end. Not to mention that you’re often buying an overpriced number that the sportsbooks have shaded toward the popular side.
From 2005 to 2018, favorites went 19,498-14,489 (57.2%), losing 662.79 units.
This season, favorites are winning at a 2.4% increase compared to their historical average (59.4% vs 57.2%). It is the only year in our database where blindly betting favorites has been profitable.
In turn, underdogs have gone 545-798 (40.6%) this season, losing 55.03 units. From 2005 to 2018, underdogs went 14,489-19,489 (42.6%), losing 513.35 units. They are down 2% this year compared to their historical average.

Sweet Spots for Favorites
First-half favorites performed even better if you layer in a few filters and focus on specific spots.
Road favorites went 282-196 (59%), winning 8.1 units. Non-division road favorites were even better (161-103, 61%, +16.2 units).
Unpopular favorites receiving less than 50% of moneyline bets went 117-81 (59.1%), good for 12.51 units. This is known as the “Fade the Trendy Dog” system. Typically, casual bettors love betting favorites, so when they load up on a dog it creates a rare contrarian favorite play for sharp bettors.
We also saw a huge difference in favorite results depending on the direction of the line movement.
If a favorite saw the line move in its favor (think -120 to -130), those teams went 484-333 (59.4%), losing 15.29 units.
However, if the line moved away from the favorite, those teams went 293-193 (60.3%), winning 21.38 units.
Road Teams Outperformed Home Teams
Blindly betting home teams or road teams both were losing strategies in the first half, but road teams were the lesser of two evils.
Visitors finished 627-707 (47%), losing 16.14 units, while home teams went 707-627 (53%), losing 36.01 units.
This marks another historical aberration. From 2005 to 2018, home teams went 18,341-15,637 (54%, -514.28 units) while road teams won 46% of their games but lost 664.07 units.
In other words, road teams have performed 1% better and home teams have performed 1% worse so far this season compared to their historical averages.

Overs Also Dominated
Historically, unders have been a more profitable bet than overs. Why? Because the betting public loves sweating overs. After all, it’s much more fun to root for a high-scoring game filled with base hits, homers and run scored. However, the books know this and will shade the total toward the over, forcing public over bettors to buy a bad number.
From 2005 to 2018, unders cashed at a 50.8% clip, but ended up losing 385.25 units because bettors had to pay the juice (-110, -115 or -120 on every play). Remember, in order to break even betting on totals you have to win 52.38% of your plays assuming -110 standard juice. If the juice is higher you need to win closer to 53% or more.
In turn, overs won a 49.2% rate from 2005 to 2018, losing a whopping 1,106.16 units.
However, we’ve seen the exact opposite happen during the first half of this season. Perhaps due to the juiced ball, overs have won at a 51.3% rate, winning 7.77 units. Meanwhile, unders have won 48.7% of the time, losing 65.23 units.
Like favorites, this is the first time in our database where blindly betting overs has been profitable. Overs are cashing at a nearly 2% higher clip this year compared to years past.


Over Sweet Spots
Overs were especially profitable in the first half when the focus was on a few specific angles.
Overs in division games have crushed so far this season, winning 52.2% of their games for +14 units. This is another bizzaro trend, as historically overs cashed at only a 49.5% rate from 2005-2018.
Usually, the built-in familiarity between divisional opponents benefits unders because the pitchers know the hitters and where to attack their weak spots. The opposite has been true so far this season.
We’ve also seen a massive edge to overs in high-total games so far this season.
When the total is 10 or more, the over has won 55.8% of the time, winning 23.68 units.
In comparison, the over has won at only a 50.2% clip (losing 15.91 units) when the total is 9.5 or less.
You would think overs would cash at a higher rate with a low total and unders with a high total. Not so much.

Betting Against the Public
Wiseguy contrarian bettors love betting against the public. In doing so, they can capitalize on Average-Joe bias, take advantage of over/underpriced and inflated/deflated lines and, best of all, place themselves on the side of the house, which we all know always wins.
So far this season betting against the public hasn’t been terrible, but it also hasn’t been as big a moneymaker as in the past.
This is likely due to the public getting smarter due to information being more easily accessible than in years past.
During the first half of this season, the key “bet-vs.-public” threshold was less than 30% of bets. While a small sample size, the ultra-contrarian sub-15% spot also cashed bigly.
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 07-09-2019, 11:25 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: NEW YORK
Posts: 97,269
Rewards: 42,630
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 13662
Likes (Received): 25052
MLB league SU trends (ROI%)

H 711-634 (-2,-2)

F 819-494 (+5,-12)

AF 296-173 (+8,-16)

HF 520-321 (+3,-9)

OU 651-620-65 (-2,-6)
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 07-09-2019, 11:25 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: NEW YORK
Posts: 97,269
Rewards: 42,630
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 13662
Likes (Received): 25052
RL trends:

H 608-727 (-6,-1)

F 603-700 (+1,-7)

AF 239-230 (+6,-12)

HF 364-470 (-2,-4)
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 07-09-2019, 11:26 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: NEW YORK
Posts: 97,269
Rewards: 42,630
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 13662
Likes (Received): 25052
O/U by total

< 8: 95-115-7 (-13, +5)

8-9: 323-329-43 (-5, -3)

> 9: 233-176-15 (+9, -17)




Last edited by New York Knight; 07-09-2019 at 11:32 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 07-09-2019, 11:27 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: NEW YORK
Posts: 97,269
Rewards: 42,630
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 13662
Likes (Received): 25052
O/U by situation

home favorites + total < 8: 54-70-4 (-17, +8)

road favorites + total > 9: 102-67-8 (+16,-23)




Last edited by New York Knight; 07-09-2019 at 11:31 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 07-09-2019, 11:27 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: NEW YORK
Posts: 97,269
Rewards: 42,630
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 13662
Likes (Received): 25052
Scoring first

Home: 99-90 SU (-5,+2) 70-116 RL (-22,+14)

Road: 102-152 SU (-15,+9) 120-132 RL (-13,+9)




Last edited by New York Knight; 07-09-2019 at 11:29 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 07-09-2019, 11:28 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: NEW YORK
Posts: 97,269
Rewards: 42,630
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 13662
Likes (Received): 25052
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 07-10-2019, 09:51 PM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2018
Posts: 447
Rewards: 1,610
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 0
Likes (Received): 86
1st game after all-star break...Take the favored teams …137-72 65.6% +27.8 units...


All Favs 137-72 +27.9

You can pick your flavor ...
HFs 68-32 … HFs Under 56-40
RFs 44-20 +16.6
Favs < -150 83-53 +16.9 (RL 65-73 +22.4)
Favs >=-150 52-19 +10.8
Favs vs NonDiv 74-35 +18.4
Favs >= .500 92-42 +24.5
Team >=.500 VS Team < .409 17-1 +11.1
Reply With Quote
Reply

Tags
betting, favorites, season, teams, units

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 02:11 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, vBulletin Solutions Inc.
Resources saved on this page: MySQL 16.67% Host: cappersmallweb3