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Old 08-14-2018, 01:08 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Tuesday Notes

The Brewers are 1-6 in their last 7 against left-handed starters

Cubs are 14-3 in Jose Quintana's lat 17 home starts
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Old 08-14-2018, 01:10 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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The Astros have lost 8 straight home games entering tonight, tied for their longest home losing streak in the last 50 seasons.
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Old 08-14-2018, 01:27 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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The Action Network


Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins

First pitch: 7:35 p.m. ET

Monday’s “Bet to Watch” was the Mets First-5-innnings, which ended up being more of a sweat than the game itself when everything was settled. I immediately connected on a higher plane with how Mets fans feel when they watch their team play on a nightly basis. Errors, seeing-eye singles, constant pessimism. The Mets and their fans have it all. Thankfully, though, that bet ended up being a winner, another feather in the cap of the First 5 model, which then was immediately removed by the Padres later in the evening.

Anyway, after viewing life through the prism of the Mets fan, I figured what better way to really outdo myself than to immediately turn around and view life through the prism of a Marlins fan. That’s right, folks, value on the Marlins tonight! Who’s with me? Looks around in an empty auditorium

I don’t know how you could support the Marlins in any current situation without mathematical evidence to trump your emotion. They got completely dominated in a doubleheader yesterday, outscored 15-2 and showed essentially no pulse offensively. That market pessimism has carried over to today’s game, as Atlanta is receiving 85% of the money-line tickets in the early betting markets (per SportsInsights).

The Marlins can now be had for about +175 to +180 in a couple offshore markets, and (unfortunately, perhaps) that’s a price that may need to be taken.

Richards, Miami’s starter, is at least reason for a little optimism. Through July and August he’s actually been very good, and in 23.1 innings since the All-Star break he’s allowed just five earned runs with a .175 BAA. He gave up only four hits against the Cardinals last time out, but two were home runs, which pretty much doomed all of his metrics from that start. Richards actually gives the Fish a decent chance to get a rare victory.

On the other side, Sanchez has been consistently good all season, too, but there’s concern recently: he took a liner off his calf early in his last start — and was limping around the clubhouse afterward — but now we are told he is fine and with treatment will make this start. That at least should give a little pause, even if the injury (to his front foot when pitching) doesn’t cause that much of a difference in mechanics.

His metrics also indicate he could be due for some regression, including a BABIP that is well below average. The Marlins are never going to wow anyone offensively, but at least as a silver lining, J.T. Realmuto — their best player in terms of WAR — has excellent splits vs. righties. In fact, none of Miami’s best hitters has any real drop-off in terms of left vs. right (this is where the snarky part of us says, “yep no drop-off, they’re equally awful against everyone!”). Look, they’re a huge underdog, it’s never going to look THAT appealing.

With the Marlins bullpen now steadily progressing closer to being the worst unit in the league, I’ll once again look to a first 5 innings moneyline, and take the Marlins. Hopefully it’s just as fun as it was being a Mets fan last night.


The Bet: Marlins F5 +175
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Old 08-14-2018, 02:08 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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The Indians are 12-2 in their last 14 games vs. a right-handed starter.

Cleveland is 73-26 in its last 99 vs. a team with a losing record.

The Indians are 11-1 in Kluber’s last 12 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.

The Reds are 1-8 in their last nine games vs. a right-handed starter.
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Old 08-14-2018, 02:10 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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The Padres are 4-17 in their last 21 home games
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Old 08-14-2018, 02:42 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Yankees vs Rays this season

at Stadium .... at Trop

W-L ... 5-1 ... 1-5
Runs ... 5.3 ... 3.2
AVG ... .251 ... .209
HR ... 11 ... 2
ERA ... 2.17 ... 3.63
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Old 08-14-2018, 02:49 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Odds Shark top consensus picks

75% CLE -211
73% TOR -130
68% NYY -210
68% ATL -191
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Old 08-14-2018, 03:08 PM
BLUE LOU BOYLE BLUE LOU BOYLE is offline
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The Red Sox have won 19 of their last 22 Interleague games...including 13 of their last 15...They are 24-6 (.800) vs the NL since the start of 2017 (8-2 this season).
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Old 08-14-2018, 03:31 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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I didn't include that because a few strong Phila. trends cancel it out


Phillies are 7-2 in their last 9 games following an off day.
Phillies are 6-2 in their last 8 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Phillies are 42-19 in their last 61 home games.
Phillies are 35-17 in their last 52 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Phillies are 6-2 in Pivettas last 8 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Phillies are 9-4 in Pivettas last 13 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Phillies are 11-5 in Pivettas last 16 home starts.
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Old 08-14-2018, 03:42 PM
BLUE LOU BOYLE BLUE LOU BOYLE is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by New York Knight View Post
I didn't include that because a few strong Phila. trends cancel it out


Phillies are 7-2 in their last 9 games following an off day.
Phillies are 6-2 in their last 8 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Phillies are 42-19 in their last 61 home games.
Phillies are 35-17 in their last 52 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Phillies are 6-2 in Pivettas last 8 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Phillies are 9-4 in Pivettas last 13 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Phillies are 11-5 in Pivettas last 16 home starts.
Porcello has won each of his last 7 Interleague decisions beginning 7/8/15 vs Miami (11 starts)...is tied for the 2nd-longest active streak of winning decisions in Interleague play (Kershaw-8)...is 8-2 with a 3.81 ERA (37ER/87.1 IP) in 14 starts vs NL clubs with Boston (2015-present)
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Old 08-14-2018, 03:46 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Cool.

I'm not here for a pissing match trying to out trend another guy

Just sharing info the same way I have for years.
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Old 08-14-2018, 03:48 PM
BLUE LOU BOYLE BLUE LOU BOYLE is offline
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Phils have won 6 straight at home...12 of their last 14 and 14 of their last 17...at 38-18 .679, the Phils have the best home winning % in the ML...Phils have won each of their last 5 series at home and 7 of their last 8...their only series lost at home in the last 2 months has been at the hands of the Yankees.
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Old 08-14-2018, 03:49 PM
BLUE LOU BOYLE BLUE LOU BOYLE is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by New York Knight View Post
Cool.

I'm not here for a pissing match trying to out trend another guy

Just sharing info the same way I have for years.
I hear NYK...sharing info as well...sorry for pissing in your thread...will post elsewhere.

BLB
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Old 08-14-2018, 03:51 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Indians placed RHP Trevor Bauer on the 10-day disabled list with a small stress fracture in his right fibula
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Old 08-14-2018, 03:53 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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It's all good BLB, I'm pretty much done in here anyway, heading out for the night.

Feel free to post whatever you want in here
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Old 08-14-2018, 04:23 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Bet The Greek

Sharp Action

WAS-STL under
TB-NYY under
Mariners
Phillies
NYM-BAL over
Diamondbacks
HOU-COL under
Padres
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Old 08-14-2018, 05:10 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Sports Insights Contributing Books


79% Pirates -120 at MIN
78% Yankees -215 vs TB
78% Indians -220 at CIN
77% Dodgers -193 vs SF
76% Braves -199 vs MIA
73% Angels -104 at SD
71% Red Sox -123 at PHI
70% Tigers -125 vs CHW
68% Jays -132 at KC
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Old 08-14-2018, 05:32 PM
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New York Yankees (-215) vs. Tampa Bay Rays
7:10 p.m. ET

The Yankees have attracted 82% of bets and 84% of dollars to this point, but their line essentially hasn’t budged, losing only a few cents due to standard juice reduction from sportsbooks that takes place as games approach their start time.

Why the public loves New York: As always, when a good team loses, the public loads up on it the next day. Following the Yankees’ loss to the Mets last night, bettors are expecting a bounceback by the Bombers this evening against a team 14 games behind them in the AL East.



Atlanta Braves (-200) vs. Miami Marlins
7:35 p.m. ET

In what’s on track to be one of the most heavily bet games tonight, the Braves are getting 77% of bets accounting for 76% of dollars. That support has pushed their line from -180 to -200.

Why the public loves Atlanta: The Braves have made easy work of the Marlins this season, posting a 10-3 record against them thus far. That dominance continued yesterday as Atlanta took both games of the double-header by a combined score of 15-2.



Pittsburgh Pirates (-118) at Minnesota Twins
8:10 p.m. ET

With 80% of bettors behind them, the Pirates are tonight’s second-most popular side. They’ve also drawn 88% of dollars but have fallen from -130 to -124.

Why the public loves Pittsburgh: Jameson Taillon continued his impressive 2018 run with a complete game, two-run performance last time out at Coors Field. Now facing a Twins club with seemingly nothing to play for at this point, it shouldn’t come as a surprise to see bettors backing the Buccos tonight.
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Old 08-14-2018, 05:39 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Sports Insights

Three Overs getting more than 70% of tickets

78% on TB/NYY
74% on LAA/SD
73% on NYM/BAL
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Old 08-14-2018, 05:43 PM
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Liabilities tonight at CGTechnology Sportsbooks

D-Backs
Padres
Pirates
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Old 08-14-2018, 06:17 PM
bigtom bigtom is offline
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Quote:
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Liabilities tonight at CGTechnology Sportsbooks

D-Backs
Padres
Pirates
padres, really?
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