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Old 12-12-2019, 06:51 PM
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Exclamation Bowl Games Betting Info

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Old 12-12-2019, 06:52 PM
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Old 12-12-2019, 06:57 PM
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ATS, O/U & SU record for all conferences in bowl games the L3Y (sorted ATS best to worst)


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Old 12-12-2019, 08:35 PM
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any info or stats if there were more favorites or under dogs (last yrs bowl games)
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Old 12-12-2019, 10:50 PM
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I'll pull it up soon 3Pt ... Just starting to dig into Bowl season
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Old 12-13-2019, 12:22 PM
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Market update


2 p.m. ET: Central Michigan (8-5) vs. San Diego State (9-3)

The New Mexico Bowl features the Central Michigan Chippewas, who finished 1st in the MAC West, against the San Diego State Aztecs, who finished 1st in the Mountain West West. Central Michigan fell to Miami Ohio 26-21 in the MAC Title game, losing straight up as 6.5-point favorites. However, the Chips were great to bet on all season, going 9-3-1 ATS. Central Michigan averaged 31.92 PPG on offense and allowed 26.77 PPG on defense. San Diego State missed out on the Mountain West title game but finished the season strong, upsetting BYU 13-3 as 4.5-point dogs. The Aztecs are led by their stout defense, only allowing 12.83 PPG while averaging 19 PPG on offense.

This line opened with San Diego State listed as a 4.5-point favorite. Sharps have pounced on Central Michigan, dropping the line down to 3.5. The total is 41. Bowl game dogs in low total games (51 or less) have gone 98-81 ATS (55%) since 2005 according to Bet Labs Sports.



2:30 p.m. ET: Liberty (7-5) vs Georgia Southern (7-5)

The Cure Bowl pits the Liberty Flames of the Independent conference against the Georgia Southern Eagles, who finished 2nd in the Sun Belt East. Liberty raced out to a 5-2 record to start the season but stumbled down the stretch, going 2-3 in their last five. The Flames won their season finale over New Mexico State 49-28 as 15-point favorites. Liberty went 6-6 ATS, averaging 33.67 PPG on offense and giving up 29.08 PPG on defense. Earlier this week, Liberty rewarded Head Coach Hugh Freeze with a multi-year contract extension for leading the program to its first Bowl Game. Georgia Southern started the season 1-3 but went on to go 6-2 the rest of the way, including a 38-10 rout of Georgia State as 6.5-point favorites in their regular season finale. The Eagles went 5-7 ATS, averaging 29.17 PPG on offense and giving up 28.58 PPG on defense.

This line opened with Georgia Southern listed as a 6-point favorite. Wiseguys have gotten down hard on Liberty, dropping the line to 5. Pros have also pounded the over, pushing the total up from 57 to 60. Liberty went 6-6 to the over this season and Georgia Southern went 8-4 to the over.



3:30 p.m. ET: SMU (10-2) vs Florida Atlantic (10-3)

Unlike other Bowl Games, the Boca Raton Bowl will be a true home game for Florida Atlantic. The Owls started the season 0-2 with two losses to ranked teams (45-21 to Ohio State and 48-14 to UCF), then proceeded to go 10-1 the rest of the way, including winning 6 straight to end the regular season. Florida Atlantic went 9-4 ATS, averaging 35.23 PPG on offense and allowing 22.31 PPG on defense. FAU beat UAB 49-6 as 8-point favorites to win the Conference USA Championship. Head Coach Lane Kiffin will not coach in this game after stepping down and taking over at Ole Miss. SMU started the season 8-0 before going 2-2 in their final four games. The Mustangs beat Tulane 37-20 as 3-point favorites in their regular season finale. SMU went 7-4-1 ATS, averaging 43 PPG on offense and allowing 31.83 PPG on defense.

This line opened with SMU listed as a 4-point favorite. So far this is the most heavily bet game of Saturday's slate and three-out-of-four bets are laying the points. However, this line has fallen down to 3, signaling sharp action grabbing the points with the home dog Owls. Pros have also gotten down on the under, dropping the total from 72 to 70.5. Early forecasts expect 20 MPH winds. SMU is 9-2-1 to the over and FAU is 7-6 to the over.


More early sharp action for Saturday Dec. 21 ...

Florida International plus 3.5 to plus 2.5 vs Arkansas State

Boise plus 4 to plus 3.5 vs Washington
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Old 12-15-2019, 01:42 PM
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Oddsmaker Matt Lindeman at Circa Sports in Vegas


CITRUS BOWL

(14) MICHIGAN VS (13) ALABAMA

“We opened this number at ‘Bama -6.5. As you could expect, there isn't a ton of Michigan interest early, and ‘Bama money has driven us up to -7. We've also seen a flood of Over money that's pushed the total up from 54.5 to 59.5. This is an intriguing game, because both teams could potentially have players sitting out in preparation for the NFL Draft.

“Jim Harbaugh and the Wolverines didn't show any interest in their bowl game against Florida last season, alluding to a 41-15 Peach Bowl loss. “But the Crimson Tide have questionable motivation after missing out on the playoff for the first time in years.”



LAS VEGAS BOWL

WASHINGTON VS (19) BOISE STATE

This line was on the move immediately, opening Washington -6.5 last Sunday and dropping to Huskies -3.5 in less than an hour.

“The market did not like our opener on this game, as our Washington -6.5 number was quickly bet down. We're currently sitting at -3.5 and will be rooting for Chris Petersen in his swan song. It's been a down year for the Huskies, and Boise State loves getting its shot at Pac-12 opponents in bowl season. But we haven't been terribly impressed by Boise State, and I wouldn't be surprised if this number goes back up.”



OUTBACK BOWL

(18) MINNESOTA VS (12) AUBURN

“There has been some Auburn support early, as they've bet the game from -7 to -7.5. P.J. Fleck's squad has been a pleasant surprise this year, but doesn't quite stack up to Auburn from a talent standpoint. This could be one of the best defenses Minnesota has faced yet.”

The total spiked from Sunday’s opener of 49 up to 52.5 by Saturday, with Over money coming in early for this Jan. 1 affair.



QUICK LANE BOWL

PITTSBURGH VS EASTERN MICHIGAN

“This game was our biggest disagreement with the offshore market, as we opened it Pittsburgh -16.5 and other books opened it -9.5. We were quickly bet down under 14 and have now settled in at 10.5. Eastern Michigan is getting to play in its home state, but this looks like a serious mismatch. The MAC typically struggles during bowl season.”



INDEPENDENCE BOWL

MIAMI VS LOUISIANA TECH

“We've seen a big move on the ‘dog here, as Louisiana Tech is playing an hour from campus and Miami is traditionally a horrible bowl bet. We opened the game Miami -10 and have been bet down to 6.5. The Hurricanes are obviously the more talented team, but really struggled down the stretch and have major questions at quarterback. It's hard to make a strong case for them in this one.”

Miami coach Manny Diaz indicated starting QB Jarren Williams and backup N’Kosi Perry will compete to see who starts in the Independence Bowl.
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Old 12-15-2019, 01:44 PM
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Opening/current lines at Circa Sports for all other bowl games. Asterisk (*) denotes College Football Playoff matchups.



Bahamas Bowl, Dec. 20: Buffalo from -4 to -6.5 vs. Charlotte.

Frisco Bowl, Dec. 20: Utah State from -8.5 to -7 vs. Kent State.

New Mexico Bowl, Dec. 21: San Diego State from -2 to -3.5 vs. Central Michigan.

Cure Bowl, Dec. 21: Georgia Southern from -6 to -5 vs. Liberty.

Boca Raton Bowl, Dec. 21: Southern Methodist from -5.5 to -3 vs. Florida Atlantic.

Camellia Bowl, Dec. 21: From pick to Arkansas State -2.5 vs. Florida International.

New Orleans Bowl, Dec. 21: Appalachian State from -15 to -16.5 vs. Alabama-Birmingham.

Gasparilla Bowl, Dec. 23: Central Florida -17 vs. Marshall, no move.

Hawaii Bowl, Dec. 24: From pick to Brigham Young -1.5 vs. Hawaii.

Military Bowl, Dec. 27: North Carolina from -7.5 to -4.5 vs. Temple.

Pinstripe Bowl, Dec. 27: Michigan State -3 to -5 vs. Wake Forest.

Texas Bowl, Dec. 27: Texas A&M from -4.5 to -7.5 vs. Oklahoma State.

Holiday Bowl, Dec. 27: From pick to Iowa -2 vs. Southern California.

Cheez-It Bowl, Dec. 27: Air Force from -1.5 to -3 vs. Washington State.

Camping World Bowl, Dec. 28: Notre Dame -3.5 vs. Iowa State, no move.

Cotton Bowl, Dec. 28: Penn State from -9.5 to -7 vs. Memphis.

* Peach Bowl, Dec. 28: Louisiana State from -11 to -13 vs. Oklahoma.

* Fiesta Bowl, Dec. 28: Clemson from -1 to -2 vs. Ohio State.

First Responder Bowl, Dec. 30: Western Kentucky from -1 to -3.5 vs. Western Michigan.

Music City Bowl, Dec. 30: Mississippi State -3.5 vs. Louisville, no move.

Redbox Bowl, Dec. 30: California from -7 to -6, back to -7 vs. Illinois.

Orange Bowl, Dec. 30: Florida from -14 to -13.5, back to -14 vs. Virginia.

Belk Bowl, Dec. 31: Virginia Tech -3 vs. Kentucky, no move.

Sun Bowl, Dec. 31: Arizona State from -2.5 to -4.5 vs. Florida State.

Liberty Bowl, Dec. 31: Navy from -1.5 to -2.5 vs. Kansas State.

Arizona Bowl, Dec. 31: Wyoming from -7.5 to 7 vs. Georgia State.

Alamo Bowl, Dec. 31: Utah from -10 to -8 vs. Texas.

Rose Bowl, Jan. 1: Wisconsin from -3.5 to -3 vs. Oregon.

Sugar Bowl, Jan. 1: Georgia from -9 to -7.5 vs. Baylor.

Birmingham Bowl, Jan. 2: Cincinnati from -4.5 to -7 vs. Boston College.

Gator Bowl, Jan. 2: Tennessee -1.5 vs. Indiana, no move.

Potato Bowl, Jan. 3: Ohio from -7 to -7.5 vs. Nevada.

Armed Forces Bowl, Jan. 4: Tulane from -7.5 to -7 vs. Southern Mississippi.

LendingTree Bowl, Jan 6: Louisiana-Lafayette from -14.5 to -14 vs. Miami-Ohio.
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Old 12-16-2019, 04:24 PM
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BetOnline

Playoff early Action Report


Oklahoma +13.5 vs. LSU

72% of bets and 75% of cash on LSU


Clemson -2 vs. Ohio State

52% of bets and 57% of cash on Clemson
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Old 12-16-2019, 07:49 PM
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Old 12-16-2019, 07:49 PM
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Old 12-17-2019, 02:37 PM
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LSU now a 14-point favorite over Oklahoma

Line jumped from -13 to -14 today at the majority of books
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Old 12-17-2019, 02:47 PM
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Fade Ranked Teams

What do recreational bettors know about the R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl between No. 20 Appalachian State and UAB? Not much, other than the Mountaineers being ranked.

Top 25 teams will receive a disproportionate number of bets from the public just because they are ranked. In early betting (see live odds) a majority of spread tickets are on App State. Oddsmakers know casual bettors will wager on Top 25 teams and thus inflate their lines.

In bowl games, betting against ranked teams has gone 178-168-3 (51.4%) against the spread (ATS) since 2005 according to Bet Labs.

It has been more profitable to fade ranked team when they face an unranked opponent: 52-42-1 (55.3%) ATS.


Game Matches:

Washington -3.5 vs. No. 19 Boise State (Dec. 21)
UAB +17 vs. No. 20 App State (Dec. 21)
Texas A&M -7 vs. No. 25 Oklahoma State (Dec. 27)
Iowa State +3.5 vs. No. 15 Notre Dame (Dec. 28)
Kansas State +2.5 vs. No. 23 Navy (Dec. 31)
Texas +7.5 vs. No. 11 Utah (Dec. 31)
Boston College +7 vs. No. 21 Cincinnati (Jan. 2)
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Old 12-17-2019, 02:50 PM
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Bad ATS Teams Are Good Bets

Clemson (10-3 ATS), Auburn (9-3 ATS) and Kansas State (9-3 ATS), were three of 14 teams to cover the spread in nine or more games this season. Each is receiving a majority of spread tickets in their respective bowl games.

Casual bettors remember the teams that consistently covered and chase those results. Unfortunately, teams that have covered the spread in 70% or more of their games have gone 59-68-2 (46.5%) ATS in the postseason.

Instead of wagering on teams that have covered, bettors should target bad ATS teams. Teams that have struggled to cash tickets during the regular season usually receive little public support, and that is a mistake.

This system is more profitable when the opponent has a .500 or better ATS record. Since 2005, bad ATS teams have gone 24-15-1 (61.5%) ATS when facing a team that has covered the spread in at least 50% of their games.


Game Matches:

North Carolina A&T -3 vs. Alcorn State (Dec. 21)
Marshall +17 vs. UCF (Dec. 23)
Michigan State -4.5 vs. Wake Forest (Dec. 27)
Ohio -7.5 vs. Nevada (Jan. 3)
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Old 12-17-2019, 02:53 PM
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Unpopular Dogs

Casual fans like wagering on favorites. In bowls games, the chalk has received a majority of spread tickets in 379 of 502 (75.5%) games since 2005, so favorites are usually inflated. That leads to value on the underdog.

All underdogs have gone 262-234-6 (52.8%) ATS in bowl games since 2005. Dogs receiving less than 50% of bets have gone 203-172-4 (54.1%) ATS.

In lopsided bet games, when the public loads up on a favorite, it has been even more profitable to wager on the underdog:


Spread Ticket Percentage ... ATS Record ... Units

Less than 50% ... 203-172-4 (54.1%) ... +19.72

Less than 40% ... 128-93-3 (57.9%) ... +27.83

Less than 30% ... 37-21-1 (63.8%) ... +14.25


Since 2005, underdogs receiving less than 30% of spread tickets have gone 37-21-1 (63.8%) ATS.

Seven dogs are currently receiving less than 30% of bets this bowl season.


Game Matches:

FAU +7 vs. SMU (Dec. 21)
Hawaii +1.5 vs. BYU (Dec. 24)
Oklahoma +13 vs. LSU (Dec. 28)
Iowa State +4 vs. Notre Dame (Dec. 28)
Virginia +14 vs. Florida (Dec. 30)
Florida State +5 vs. Arizona State (Dec. 31)
Indiana +2 vs. Tennessee (Jan. 2)
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Old 12-17-2019, 04:03 PM
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At the Daft Kings Sportsbook at the Scarlet Pearl in Biloxi, Mississippi, 95% of the point-spread money bet on Peach Bowl between Oklahoma and LSU is on the Tigers.

Action is lopsided on LSU at Draft Kings books around the nation, too.
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Old 12-17-2019, 04:38 PM
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ATS Records for 2019-2020 Bowl Game Head Coaches


Coach ... Team ... ATS Record ... ROI ... Units


Doc Holliday ... Marshall ... 6-0-0 ... 96.4% ... 5.79

Dabo Swinney ... Clemson ... 10-4-0 ... 39.3% ... 5.50

Kyle Whittingham ... Utah ... 8-4-0 ... 29.8% ... 3.58

Skip Holtz ... Louisiana Tech ... 7-3-0 ... 35.5% ... 3.55

Ken Niumatalolo ... Navy ... 7-3-0 ... 34.8% ... 3.48

Tom Herman ... Texas ... 3-0-0 ... 97.3% ... 2.92

Jimbo Fisher ... Texas A&M ... 6-3-0 ... 30.2% ... 2.72

Mike Gundy ... Oklahoma State ... 8-5-0 ... 20.7% ... 2.69

Ed Orgeron ... LSU ... 3-1-0 ... 50.8% ... 2.03

Hugh Freeze ... Liberty ... 3-1-0 ... 50.5% ... 2.02

Craig Bohl ... Wyoming ... 2-0-0 ... 96.4% ... 1.93

Bryan Harsin ... Boise State ... 3-1-0 ... 47.6% ... 1.90

Kirby Smart ... Georgia ... 3-1-0 ... 47.4% ... 1.90

Justin Fuente ... Virginia Tech ... 3-1-0 ... 46.3% ... 1.85

Frank Solich ... Ohio 6-4-0 ... 17.9% ... 1.79

James Franklin ... Penn State ... 5-3-0 ... 22.3% ... 1.78

Chris Creighton ... Eastern Michigan ... 2-0-0 ... 87.8% ... 1.76

Paul Chryst ... Wisconsin ... 4-2-0 ... 28.8% ... 1.73

Kirk Ferentz ... Iowa ... 7-5-0 ... 13.7% ... 1.65

Willie Fritz ... Tulane ... 1-0-0 ... 104% ... 1.04

Shawn Elliot ... Georgia State ... 1-0-0 ... 99% ... 0.99

Tom Allen ... Indiana ... 1-0-0 ... 96.2% ... 0.96

Jay Norvell ... Nevada ... 1-0-0 ... 94.3% ... 0.94

Jim McElwain ... Central Michigan ... 2-1-0 ... 31.4% ... 0.94

Chuck Martin ... Miami Ohio ... 1-0-0 ... 93.5% ... 0.94

Sonny Dykes ... SMU ... 2-1-0 ... 30.6% ... 0.92

Scott Satterfield ... Louisville ... 2-1-0 ... 28.4% ... 0.85

P.J. Fleck ... Minnesota ... 3-1-0 ... 43.5% ... 1.74

Dan Mullen ... Florida ... 5-4-0 ... 8.6% ... 0.78

Mark Stoops ... Kentucky ... 2-1-0 ... 25.3% ... 0.76

Butch Davis ... FIU ... 3-2-0 ... 15.2% ... 0.76

Mark Dantonio ... Michigan State ... 6-5-0 ... 6.3% ... 0.69

Bronco Mendenhall ... Virginia ... 7-6-0 ... 4.7% ... 0.61

Chris Petersen ... Washington ... 7-6-0 ... 2.8% ... 0.37

Jim Harbaugh ... Michigan ... 3-3-0 ... 2.5% ... 0.15

Lincoln Riley ... Oklahoma ... 1-1-0 ... 3.5% ... 0.07

Manny Diaz ... Miami ... 0-0-0

Lovie Smith ... Illinois ... 0-0-0

Ryan Day ... Ohio State ... 0-0-0

Chris Klieman ... Kansas State ... 0-0-0

Will Healy ... Charlotte ... 0-0-0

Ryan Silverfield ... Memphis ... 0-0-0

Glenn Spencer ... Florida Atlantic ... 0-0-0

Tyson Helton ... Western Kentucky ... 0-0-0

Rich Gunnell ... Boston College ... 0-0-0

Sean Lewis ... Kent State ... 0-0-0

Jeremy Pruitt ... Tennessee ... 0-0-0

Shawn Clark ... Appalachian State ... 0-0-0

Bill Clark ... UAB ... 1-1-0 ... -2.8% ... -0.06

Jay Hopson ... Southern Miss ... 1-1-0 ... -2.8% ... -0.06

Nick Rolovich ... Hawaii ... 1-1-0 ... -6.5% ... -0.13

Mack Brown ... North Carolina ... 4-4-0 ... -2.5% ... -0.20

Kalani Sitake ... BYU ... 1-1-0 ... -11.6% ... -0.23

Gus Malzahn ... Auburn ... 3-3-0 ... -4.5% ... -0.27

Nick Saban ... Alabama ... 8-8-0 ... -2.4% ... -0.39

Troy Calhoun ... Air Force ... 5-5-0 ... -4.8% ... -0.48

Billy Napier ... Louisiana-Lafayette ... 0-1-0 ... -100% ... -1.00

Chad Lunsford ... Georgia Southern ... 0-1-0 ... -100% ... -1.00

Herm Edwards ... Arizona State ... 0-1-0 ... -100% ... -1.00

Joe Moorhead ... Mississippi State ... 0-1-0 ... -100% ... -1.00

Josh Heupel ... Central Florida ... 0-1-0 ... -100% ... -1.00

Justin Wilcox ... California ... 0-1-0 ... -100% ... -1.00

Lance Leipold ... Buffalo ... 0-1-0 ... -100% ... -1.00

Tim Lester ... Western Michigan ... 0-1-0 ... -100% ... -1.00

Mario Cristobal ... Oregon ... 1-2-1 ... -26.4% ... -1.06

Matt Campbell ... Iowa State ... 2-3-0 ... -21.6% ... -1.08

Matt Rhule ... Baylor ... 1-2-0 ... -36.9% ... -1.11

Gary Andersen ... Utah State ... 1-2-0 ... -37.4% ... -1.12

Dave Clawson ... Wake Forest ... 2-3-1 ... -18.8% ... -1.13

Pat Narduzzi ... Pittsburgh ... 1-2-0 ... -38.9% ... -1.17

Luke Fickell ... Cincinnati ... 0-2-0 ... -100% ... -2.00

Rocky Long ... San Diego State ... 4-6-0 ... -22.1% ... -2.21

Clay Helton ... USC ... 0-3-0 ... -100% ... -3.00

Mike Norvell ... Florida State ... 0-3-0 ... -100% ... -3.00

Blake Anderson ... Arkansas State ... 1-4-0 ... -61.1% ... -3.06

Brian Kelly ... Notre Dame ... 3-8-0 ... -46.3% ... -5.09

Mike Leach ... Washington State ... 2-7-0 ... -59.9% ... -5.39

Rod Carey ...Temple ... 0-6-0 ... -100% ... -6.00
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Old 12-17-2019, 04:40 PM
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Biggest Head Coach Mismatches


Gasparilla Bowl: Marshall (+17.5) vs. Central Florida

Doc Holliday (+5.79 units) vs. Josh Heupel (-1.00 units)


Military Bowl: North Carolina (-4.5) vs. Temple

Mack Brown (-0.20u) vs. Rod Carey (-6.00u)


Fiesta Bowl: Clemson (-2) vs. Ohio State

Dabo Swinney (+5.50u) vs. Ryan Day (0.00u)


Cheez-It Bowl: Air Force (-3) vs. Washington State

Troy Calhoun (-0.48u) vs. Mike Leach (-5.39u)


Holiday Bowl: Iowa (-2) vs. USC

Kirk Ferentz (+1.65u) vs. Clay Helton (-3.00)


Camping World Bowl: Iowa State (+3.5) vs. Notre Dame

Matt Campbell (-1.08u) vs. Brian Kelly (-5.09u)
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Old 12-17-2019, 06:20 PM
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Vegas Stats & Information Network's 3rd annual Bowl Guide with trends, analysis & best bets from:

Steve Makinen
Matt Youmans
Dave Tuley
Pauly Howard
Mitch Moss
Brent Musburger
Michael Lombardi
Josh Appelbaum
Jeff Fogle
Jonathan Von Tobel
Wes Reynolds
Bruce Marshall



2019-20_VSiN_Bowl_Guide_Final_LR.pdf - Google Drive
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Old 12-17-2019, 08:33 PM
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Thanks for mentioning the Scarlet Pearl in Biloxi! This place has become my favorite sportsbook along the gulf coast. I was there for the SEC Championship last week. An all LSU crowd for sure. I think I saw one brave soul sporting a Georgia jersey
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Old 12-17-2019, 09:33 PM
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Since 2008, underdogs are 208-193-5 ATS in bowl games (52%)

Of the 208 dogs that covered, 152 (73%) of the dogs that covered, won outright.
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Old 12-17-2019, 09:40 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Over the last three years, the Pac-12 is 4-17-1 ATS in bowl games. That includes a 1-9-1 mark as a favorite. Pac-12 teams are 4-12 straight-up in bowl games over the last two years.


Since the 2016 National Championship Game, there have been eight SEC teams favored by at least 6 points in a bowl game. Five of the eight lost outright, including each of the last two losers of the SEC Championship Game - Auburn in 2017 and Georgia in 2018.


In the last three years, the MAC is 2-15 SU in bowls and is 3-8 ATS over the last 2 years.


Kent State has covered each of its last five games as an underdog, winning the last three outright. Dating back to last year, Kent State has covered each of its last six games as an underdog vs non-Power 5 teams.


Miami is 1-8 SU in its last 9 bowl games. In that span, the Canes have lost 4 of the 5 bowl games in which they were favored. Miami is also 2-9 ATS in its last 11 bowl games.


Boise State is 7-2 ATS with 5 outright wins as an underdog in bowl games. That includes an outright win over Oregon in the 2017 Vegas Bowl as a 7-point dog. The Broncos have won 5 of 6 and 10 of their last 13 games vs Pac-12 opponents.


Since 2015, Big Ten teams are 3-9 straight-up vs SEC teams in bowl games (2-10 ATS, 1-4 ATS as a favorite, 1-6 ATS as a dog).


Since 2013, Ohio State is 5-2 in bowl games. The Buckeyes are 0-2 vs Clemson and 5-0 vs everyone else.


Since 2012, Clemson is 8-2 in bowl games. The Tigers are 2-2 vs Alabama and 6-0 vs everyone else. Clemson is 9-1 ATS in those nine games.


Since 2016, there have been 17 Big 12 underdogs in bowl games. They are 10-7 ATS with 8 outright wins, including winning 5 of the 7 games outright in which they were a dog vs SEC teams.


Iowa State’s two bowl games under Matt Campbell have been decided by a combined 3 points. Iowa State is 13-3 ATS with 6 outright wins. The two times this season Iowa State was an underdog resulted in a one-point loss both times (vs Iowa and at Oklahoma).


Penn State’s five bowl games under James Franklin have each been decided by 7 points or fewer (21 combined points)


As a head coach, Ed Orgeron is 14-2-1 ATS against Top 10 teams not named Alabama. At LSU, he’s 7-1-1 ATS with nine outright wins in that spot.


Mike Leach is 1-8 ATS in his last nine bowl games. Leach’s teams have lost 5 of the 9 games on the field.


Since 2013, Air Force, Army and Navy are 9-2 both outright and ATS in bowl games. That includes four outright wins in five games as an underdog.


Since 2015, Iowa has been favored by less than six points 13 times. The Hawkeyes have won all 13 games. 7 of those wins came when Iowa was favored by a FG or less.


Wake Forest’s three bowl games under Dave Clawson have seen 71, 107 and 60 total points scored.


Since 2017, Sun Belt teams are 7-3 in bowl games. Two of the three losses are losses by Arkansas State, coming by a combined 8 points.


Between his stints at Miami, North Carolina and FIU, Butch Davis is 8-1 ATS in bowl games. The only non-cover came in 2017 when the Golden Panthers lost 28-3 to Temple as a 7-point dog in a game which they lost their starting QB in the first quarter of the game.


UCF is a 17.5-point favorite vs Marshall. In the last 15 years, the three bowl favorites of at least 17 points all covered, winning 50-3, 58-14 and 48-20.


In its last eight games as an underdog, Baylor is 8-0 ATS with five outright wins. In 48 games as an underdog, Matt Rhule is 34-14 ATS with 16 outright wins.


In its last 17 games as an underdog, Oregon is 5-12 ATS (3-4 under Mario Cristobal). All five of the covers were also outright wins.


Wisconsin has won five straight bowl games, going 4-0-1 ATS in those five games.


Cal was favored just three times all season vs FBS teams. The Bears didn’t cover any of the three and lost two of them outright.


Illinois was 6-1 ATS with three outright wins as an underdog this year. The three wins all came as dogs of at least 9.5 points.


Auburn has failed to cover each of its last seven bowl games in which it has been a favorite of at least 6 points, losing outright in both instances under Gus Malzahn - 2014 vs Wisconsin and 2017 vs UCF.


Tom Herman is 3-0 in bowl games, winning outright as an underdog in all three games.


Alabama is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 bowl games, losing four times as at least a 5.5 point favorite. The Tide also lost the last non-CFP bowl it played as a 16-point favorite vs Oklahoma.


Eastern Michigan’s two bowl games under Chris Creighton have been decided by a combined six points. The Eagles covered, but lost both games.


8 of Boston College’s last 10 bowl games have been decided by 7 points or fewer.
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Old 12-18-2019, 11:24 AM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Two more bowl games garnering sharp money


Dec 24 at 8 p.m. ET: BYU (9-5) vs Hawaii (7-5)

The Hawaii Bowl kicks off on Christmas Eve and features a Mountain West opponent against an independent. Hawaii lost to Boise State 31-10 in the Mountain West championship, failing to cover as 14-point dogs. The loss snapped a 4-game winning streak for the Rainbow Warriors. Hawaii finished the season 7-7 ATS, averaging 33.51 PPG on offense and giving up 31.71 PPG on defense. BYU started the season 2-4 but then went on to win five straight before dropping the season finale to San Diego State 13-3 as 4.5-point favorites. The Cougars went 4-8 ATS, averaging 28 PPG on offense and giving up 24.42 PPG on defense.

This line opened at either a pick'em or BYU listed as a short 1-point favorite. More than three-out-of-four bets are backing the Cougars, which has pushed the line up to -1.5 or even 2 at some books. Hawaii has value as contrarian inflated dog in what will be an extremely heavily bet game—the only game on Christmas Eve. This will also be a true home game for Hawaii as it will be played at Aloha Stadium.

The total opened at 62.5. Two-thirds of bets are backing the over, which has pushed the total up to 64. That's when some sharp buyback hit the under. The early forecast calls for high 70s and 15 MPH winds. The under is 57.4% since 2005 when the wind blows 15 MPH or more. Hawaii is 8-6 to the over and BYU is 6-6.



Dec. 26 at 4 p.m. ET: Miami-Florida (6-6) vs Louisiana Tech (9-3)

The Independence Bowl is the first of two day-after-Christmas games. Miami has an up-and-down season in the ACC, losing their first two games and their last two games but going 6-2 in-between. The Hurricanes averaged 27.8 PPG on offense and gave up 20.8 PPG on defense. Louisiana Tech finished second in the Conference-USA West division, averaging 34 PPG on offense and giving up 23.7 PPG on defense.

This line opened with Miami listed as a 7.5-point favorite. Pros and Joes are both siding with Louisiana Tech, which had dropped the line down to 6.5 or even 6 across the market. Sharps in particular loaded up on Louisiana Tech at plus 7.5 and plus 7. The game will be played at Independence Stadium in Shreveport Louisiana, providing the La Tech Bulldogs a local home field advantage.

The total opened at 50 and has ticked down slightly to 49.5. The forecast calls for mid 60s and 5-7 MPH winds.
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Old 12-18-2019, 01:18 PM
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Love this information and Bowl Season thank you NYK as always.
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Old 12-18-2019, 01:57 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by New York Knight View Post
LSU now a 14-point favorite over Oklahoma

Line jumped from -13 to -14 today at the majority of books

At least three Sooners ... DE Ronnie Perkins, RB Rhamondre Stevenson and WR Trejan Bridges are suspended for the Peach Bowl.
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