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  #401  
Old 01-09-2020, 06:14 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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South Point

"A lot of small tix on LSU -6 ... might be going back to 5.5 soon."
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  #402  
Old 01-09-2020, 10:05 PM
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MGM Books in Nevada have taken (6) five-figure bets on title game so far ... all on LSU
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  #403  
Old 01-09-2020, 10:11 PM
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Proposition-bet menu’s action and odds moves, with insights from The SuperBook / PointsBet USA and William Hill


Running Man

Clemson running back Travis Etienne has 1,536 rushing yards in 14 games this season, an average of 109.7 yards per game. However, in the CFP semifinal against Ohio State, Etienne gained just 36 yards on 10 carries. Bettors are expecting something much closer to his normal production in Monday's 8 p.m. ET clash.

“The prop that pops off the page is rushing yards by Etienne,” SuperBook manager Eric Osterman told Covers. “We opened this pretty low, 83.5, and we’re all the way up to 93.5. In the game against Ohio State, our Etienne prop was Over/Under 99.5, and he went way under. So we opened lower, and we’ve taken nothing but Over money, mostly public, but probably some sharp money too.”


Run-Pass Option

At PointsBet USA in New Jersey, head of content Matt Chaprales said prop bettors are most intrigued by LSU’s Joe Burrow and Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence.

“So far, the quarterbacks have generated the most interest, including Burrow Under 365.5 passing yards and Under 30.5 rushing yards,” Chaprales said, noting sharp play on the latter. “And Overs for both Trevor Lawrence passing yards (291.5) and rushing yards (53.5).”

The totals on Burrow’s passing yards and Lawrence’s rushing yards haven’t moved. However, Burrow’s rushing yards opened at 32.5 and dropped to 28.5 before buyback took the number to 30.5. Lawrence’s passing yards ticked up from 289.5 to 291.5.

“It’s an interesting dichotomy, as the game itself has trended primarily LSU,” Chaprales said, alluding to the Bayou Bengals opening -4.5 and getting bet up to -6 before dialing back to -5.5. “So despite liking the LSU side, it would appear bettors are viewing Burrow’s prices as slightly inflated after his performance against Oklahoma.”

All Burrow did in that game was throw for seven touchdown passes – all in the first half – and 493 yards in a 63-28 LSU wipeout win as 12.5-point Peach Bowl favorites.

Chaprales said on Burrow’s passing-yards total, about 70 percent of the money is on the Under, and on rushing yards, it’s about 75 percent Under. Conversely, on Lawrence’s passing yards, more than 90 percent of cash is on the Over, and Lawrence’s rushing-yards prop is seeing 60 percent Over action.

Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading for William Hill US sportsbooks, said the Burrow passing-yards prop is the only noteworthy mover so far, among a few dozen offerings. William Hill opened Burrow’s total at 363.5 yards, and Under action took it down to 360.5.


Who's on First

With a total of 69.5 at The SuperBook, there’s expected to be plenty of scoring. But bettors are more intrigued by the prospect of a field goal – or the highly unlikely safety; anything but a touchdown – to get things started at the Superdome.

“First score of the game always gets a lot of attention,” Osterman said. “It’s a really big price on the touchdown, minus three dollars, which is pretty high, but it kind of has to be, with the total being where it is. We actually opened even higher, -400, but we’ve seen money on Any Other Score, which we kind of expected with a price like that.

“People like to bet that in the NFL, as well, because you get plus money on it. People are thinking on the first possession, teams might be willing to settle for a field goal. We opened Any Other Score at 3/1, and it’s now +240. We’ll probably have a decent-sized decision. We’ll need the touchdown, and that’s what we’ll want to need.”


Good Reception

Much like his quarterback, wideout Justin Jefferson went haywire in LSU’s Peach Bowl pummeling of Oklahoma. Jefferson finished with 14 catches for a whopping 227 yards and four touchdowns, so his Over/Under yardage prop for the CFP championship has drawn a lot of action at The SuperBook.

“That’s the one getting the most attention for LSU props. He’s seen a lot of money,” Osterman said. “The first couple of bets were sharper plays. We opened him 88.5, got an Over bet and went to 90.5, where we actually saw some bets on both sides. Then he got bet up again at 90.5, and we went to 93.5.

“Then we took some public play on the Over. So the public got the worst of the number, and we’re now at 95.5.”
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  #404  
Old 01-10-2020, 02:26 PM
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In Dabo Swinney era, as an underdogs against the spread in bowl games:

Clemson is 8-1 ATS, covering by 15.6 ppg


Currently, 72% of spread tickets are on LSU -5.5 at Sports Insights books
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  #405  
Old 01-10-2020, 02:33 PM
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Jeff Davis, risk director for Caesars Sportsbook

"We're going to need Clemson for a whole pile."
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  #406  
Old 01-10-2020, 02:34 PM
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Jason Scott, vice president of trading for ROAR Digital/BetMGM sportsbooks, said Friday morning that the action has been exceptionally heavy on LSU.

"The last time we've seen such a one-sided [betting] event was Conor McGregor versus Floyd Mayweather [in 2017].
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  #407  
Old 01-10-2020, 02:36 PM
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Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading for William Hill

"Right now, it's all LSU."

"Current money is about 8-to-1 in favor of LSU and tickets are about 4-to-1 in favor of LSU."
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  #408  
Old 01-10-2020, 02:37 PM
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Sportsbooks along the Gulf Coast, next door to Louisiana, are inundated with bets on LSU. At the Scarlet Pearl Casino Resort in Biloxi, Mississippi -- just over a two-hour drive from Baton Rouge

85% of the bets and 92% of the money is on LSU



"We're predominantly purple," said Will Hall, sportsbook manager at the Beau Rivage in Biloxi.
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  #409  
Old 01-10-2020, 02:37 PM
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Jeff Davis of Caesars Sportsbook said the last championship game he could recall that had this one-sided of action was Super Bowl XLVIII between the Seattle Seahawks and Denver Broncos -- except for one key difference.

"The amount of money on Denver from the public was ludicrous," Davis said. "The sharp guys couldn't get enough of Seattle. I don't want to say this [game] has that feel, because there hasn't been much Clemson from some of these [sharp] guys."

The underdog Seahawks beat the Broncos 43-8, and Nevada sportsbooks won a net $19.6 million, the most ever on a Super Bowl.
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  #410  
Old 01-10-2020, 06:43 PM
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  #411  
Old 01-10-2020, 09:06 PM
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BetOnline

Friday night update

"Yup, we still need Clemson large Monday night."


75% of the bets and 82% of $$ on LSU
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  #412  
Old 01-10-2020, 09:11 PM
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MGM Race & Sports

Took $230,000 LSU ML (-230) ... to win $100,000


"The hole gets deeper. Book needs Clemson to cover +5.5. Outright win way better."
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  #413  
Old 01-10-2020, 09:48 PM
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wow...money just keeps rolling in on LSU.

NYK you have any numbers on the Heisman curse?
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  #414  
Old 01-10-2020, 11:27 PM
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2000 ... Chris Weinke ... Orange Bowl ... L, 2–13

2001 ... Eric Crouch ... Rose Bowl ... L, 14–37

2002 ... Carson Palmer ... Orange Bowl ... W, 38–17

2003 ... Jason White ... Sugar Bowl ... L, 14–21

2004 ... Matt Leinart ... Orange Bowl ... W, 55–19

2005 ... Reggie Bush ... Rose Bowl ... L, 38–41

2006 ... Troy Smith ... BCS National Championship Game ... L, 14–41

2007 ... Tim Tebow ... Capital One Bowl ... L, 35–41

2008 ... Sam Bradford ... BCS National Championship Game ... L, 14–24

2009 ... Mark Ingram Jr ... BCS National Championship Game ... W, 37–21

2010 ... Cam Newton ... BCS National Championship Game ... W, 22–19

2011 ... Robert Griffin III ... Alamo Bowl ... W, 67–56

2012 ... Johnny Manziel ... Cotton Bowl Classic ... W, 41–13

2013 ... Jameis Winston ... BCS National Championship Game ... W, 34–31

2014 ... Marcus Mariota ... Rose Bowl ... W, 59–20
Playoff National Championship ... L, 20–42

2015 ... Derrick Henry ... Cotton Bowl ... W, 38–0
Playoff National Championship ... W, 45–40

2016 ... Lamar Jackson ... Citrus Bowl ... L, 9–29

2017 ... Baker Mayfield ... Rose Bowl ... L, 48–54

2018 ... Kyler Murray ... Orange Bowl ... L, 34–45
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  #415  
Old 01-12-2020, 01:11 PM
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Old 01-12-2020, 09:58 PM
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MGM

The large casino player from my NFL Betting Info thread:

(NFL Divisional Round ... up $1.057.5 million)


$110,000 Clemson +5.5 vs. LSU

$110,000 Clemson 1H +3.5 vs. LSU

$110,000 Clemson-LSU Over 68.5
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  #417  
Old 01-13-2020, 10:43 AM
Keani Keani is offline
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Long time follower as a guest, recently registered as a cappersmall member, first time posting... You are a wealth of information sir! Thank you for what you do!
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  #418  
Old 01-13-2020, 12:51 PM
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Around the market

Where sharp money is falling for tonight's national title gameand


8 p.m. ET: LSU (14-0, ranked 1st) vs Clemson (14-0, ranked 3rd)

This line opened with LSU listed as a 5-point favorite (some books opened closer to -4). The public is pounding LSU to the tune of nearly three-out-of-four bets, which means this is shaping up to be one of the most lopsided title bouts in recent memory. This heavy support pushed the line up to the key number of 6. Some books even reached 6.5. That's when we saw major sharp buyback on Clemson, dropping the line down to 5.5.

The total opened at 69. Despite two-thirds of bets taking the over the total has fallen to 67.5, signaling some sharp under money.
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  #419  
Old 01-13-2020, 12:58 PM
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Bookmaker


61% ATS Bets ... LSU
74% $$ ... LSU
Pros ... Clemson

83% ML Bets ... Clemson
74% $$ ML Bets ... Clemson
Pros ... Clemson

55% Bets Over
78% $$ Under
Pros ... Under
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  #420  
Old 01-13-2020, 01:01 PM
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Sports Interaction

National Championship Monday

69% of the betting action like LSU (-6) over Clemson
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  #421  
Old 01-13-2020, 01:04 PM
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MGM Race & Sports


67% of Point Spread Tix on LSU

56% of Point Spread $$ on LSU

50% of Total Points Tix on Over

72% of Total Points $$ on Over
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  #422  
Old 01-13-2020, 01:08 PM
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Matt Lindeman, senior oddsmaker for Circa Sports in downtown Vegas.


#3 Clemson Tigers vs. #1 Louisiana State Tigers

Open: -3; Move: -4; Move: -4.5; Move: -3.5; Move: -3; Move: -3.5; Move: -4; Move: -3.5; Move: -3; Move: -2.5; Move: -3; Move: -4; Move: -3.5; Move: -3; Move: -3.5; Move: -4; Move: -5; Move: -5.5; Move: -5; Move: -5.5; -6; Move: -5.5; Move: -5

Most of the movement on this game came in the first few hours after it posted on the afternoon of Dec. 28. There were 18 moves within the first eight hours, before the line settled at LSU -5 for a few days.

“We currently need Clemson, taking a bunch of LSU money from our opener of 3 up to 6. We finally saw some interest in Clemson at 6, and the number has come back some now. We'll see our biggest bets (Monday), but as it stands now, we're hoping the defending champs can stay inside the number.”

Circa’s position with the futures book will take time to clarify, as the sportsbook newcomer has an interesting option that allows bettors to parlay such wagers. For example, one could parlay CFP futures with the Super Bowl or the NBA Finals or NCAA Tournament.

“We're in a unique position with futures, as we do well to Clemson on straight bets, but do poorly on parlays,” Lindeman said. “We actually won't know what we're rooting for until the NCAA Tournament and NBA/NHL Finals roll around.”


Circa opened the total at 72 and dipped to 70 within 10 minutes on the night of Dec. 28. The number stuck at 69.5 from Dec. 30 until Saturday morning, when it dipped a full point to 68.5.
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  #423  
Old 01-13-2020, 01:17 PM
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Caesars Palace books in Nevada

2 p.m. betting splits:

Clemson vs. LSU (-5.5, 67)

63% of point-spread bets, 65% of point-spread $$ is on LSU


"Action continues to even up rapidly. With two weeks to build, handle is significant"
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  #424  
Old 01-13-2020, 01:59 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by New York Knight View Post
MGM

The large casino player from my NFL Betting Info thread:

(NFL Divisional Round ... up $1.057.5 million)


$110,000 Clemson +5.5 vs. LSU

$110,000 Clemson 1H +3.5 vs. LSU

$110,000 Clemson-LSU Over 68.5

AND Fired a couple more times this morning


Another $110,000 Clemson +5.5 ... Another $110,000 Clemson 1H +3.5 and $50,000 Clemson moneyline +180 ... and $50,000 Clemson 1H moneyline +170


Guy now has $650,000 in plays on this game
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  #425  
Old 01-13-2020, 02:06 PM
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BetMGM

Just took $107,000 on Clemson moneyline (+185) at Beau Biloxi Sportsbook

Would win $192,950
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