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College Football CFB Handicapping - Post your CFB picks, talk CFB betting, anything CFB. |
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#1
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Miami Hurricanes have lost 11 games SU as favorites since 2018, including six times under head coach Manny Diaz last season.
The next closest over that span is Purdue with eight. The Canes are currently 14˝ favorites over UAB tonight
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#2
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UAB vs. Miami
The earliest opener had Miami as a 16-point favorite in this matchup, but most books opened the number at -14.5. Still, the spread has come down a tick, as most shops are now posting -14, even with 61% of bets landing on Miami. As you may have been able to guess by the line’s move toward an unpopular side, sharps have been among the minority taking UAB. Sports Insights Bet Signals — which track and record instances of market movement caused by sharp action — have been triggered four times on the Blazers, serving as confirmation that the slight reverse line movement has been a result of pro action. |
#3
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Market update
8 p.m. ET: UAB (1-0) at Miami Florida (0-0) UAB already enters this game with a win under their belt having just defeated Central Arkansas 45-35 last week. Meanwhile, this is the season opener for the Hurricanes. This line opened with Miami listed as a 14-point home favorite. The public is all over the Hurricanes due to their name recognition, home favorite status and the buzz surrounding Houston transfer quarterback D'Eriq King making his Miami debut. With two-thirds of bets laying the points, Miami ticked up to -15. That's when you saw some sharp UAB buyback hit the market, dropping the line back down to 14.5. Some books are even at 14. Essentially, we are looking at a sharp line freeze on UAB plus the points. UAB also has notable contrarian value since they're only receiving a third of bets in what will be an incredibly heavily bet (and the only) college football game on Thursday night. |
#4
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FanDuel Sportsbook
Miami is getting a little less support at FanDuel than earlier in the week. However, the Hurricanes are still a popular play and moved from -13.5 to -14.5. The Canes are drawing 72% of bets and money on the point spread. The total remained at 54.5, where it's been since Monday, but that's up 6 points from the opener of 48.5. The Over is getting 69% of tickets and 76% of cash. |
#5
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Miami has lost each of its last five games in which it was at least a seven-point favorite and failed to cover each of the last nine - and is 2-14 ATS in the last 16 games as a favorite of at least seven points.
The Canes have failed to cover each of the last five games in which they were a double-digit favorite, losing three straight on the field and are 2-10 ATS in the last 12 games as a double-digit favorite. |
#6
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SuperBook
Sharp action on Miami / UAB Over 52 (now up to 55)
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#7
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PointsBet USA
Miami on the move the past couple of days, after bottoming out as 13.5-point favorites, down 2.5 points from the opener of -16. The Hurricanes climbed back to -15.5 by this afternoon. Although point-spread ticket count is two-way, with Alabama-Birmingham actually getting 53% of bets, Miami is getting 70% of spread money. The total peaked Wednesday at 55, up 6.5 points from the opener, it ticked down to 54.5 today. Still, 88% of tickets at PointsBet are on the Over. |
#8
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Borgata Sports (Jersey)
Just took $200,000 on Miami -14 |
#9
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Global market
Heavy public concentration on UAB / Miami Over 54 |
#10
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Action Network contributing books
63% of public on Miami -15.5 |
#11
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Global market
Public is all over Miami -15.5. There was a small sharp buyback on Under 55, but that has been cancelled out as the picture is pretty mixed now on the total from a sharp perspective. |
#12
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BetMGM
Just took $100,000 on Over 54.5 ... pays out $90,909.10 |
#13
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Wager Street
Sharp Action Miami (small) Over Under is definitely the need |
#14
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SuperBook
Opened Miami -14 and reached -15.5 a couple of hours ago. "Good two-way action on the spread, with the majority of parlays coming in on Miami. Some public players have bet a little bit on UAB moneyline. We have taken a little bit of sharp money on UAB first half +8. We will need Miami to win but not cover." |
#16
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Thanks for the info NYK
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#18
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William Hill
One Nevada bettor placed $11,000 on Notre Dame -20 for a potential total payout of $21,000, which is tied for the biggest Week 2 college football wager taken thus far at William Hill. Another Nevada bettor put down $11,000 on Army -20.5 against Louisiana-Monroe. “For line movement, looks like Army’s on the prowl. It was as low as 19, and now it’s 22. Army already has a game under their belts with Middle Tennessee, and it was an impressive performance. There’s square and sharp money on Army, so that’s a side we’re keeping an eye on.” |
#19
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Thanks for sharing buddy!
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#20
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BetMGM
DUKE-ND Some sharp play on Under. Total opened 53, hit 56.5, but now down to 52. ND from 19.5 to 21. Ticket count 3/1, money 5/1 on Notre Dame. "Obviously, we're gonna need Duke, but it's just a small decision." |
#21
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William Hill
DUKE-ND "We're high on everything Notre Dame." That would be spread, parlays, moneyline parlays. Irish from -20 to -21 |
#22
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William Hill
CLEM-WAKE "We're high on straight bets and high on parlays with Clemson." Tigers from -32.5 to -34 |
#23
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BetMGM
CLEM-WAKE Clemson from -32 to -34. Late last night, there were literally only 2 straight point spread bets on Wake Forest. "It's all Clemson, but not that big of a decision." |
#24
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SuperBook
CLEM-WAKE Clemson from -32 to -34 "Public betting on Clemson. We've got decent parlay liability as well." |
#25
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SuperBook
GATECH-FLAST Florida State opens -12.5, goes to -13, then back to -12.5 Friday. "Public betting Georgia Tech and the Under." Total drops from 55 to 51. |
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closest, favorites, purdue, season, span |
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