NCAAF Betting Info

[New York Knight]

Circa Sports

Biggest Line Moves


LOUISIANA -13 ➡️ -17
LOUISVILLE +1½ ➡️ -2½
HOUSTON +10 ➡️ +6½
MID TENN ST +6½ ➡️ +3½
S FLORIDA +27½ ➡️ +24½
C FLORIDA -5½ ➡️ -7½
PITTSBURGH -19 ➡️ -21
W KENTUCKY -12½ ➡️ -14½
TEXAS ST -1½ ➡️ -3½

[New York Knight]

NCAAF numbers


Fav's: 24-6 SU ... 14-15-1 ATS ... 10-20 O/U

AF's: 4-0 SU ... 1-3 ATS ... 1-3 O/U

HF's: 20-6 SU ... 13-12-1 ATS ... 9-17 O/U

[New York Knight]

SuperBook


WF / NC State

Opening line: North Carolina State -3, Over/Under 55.5

Sharp money on Wake Forest took the line from North Carolina State -3 to -2.5 early in the week.



UCF / GT

Opening line: Georgia Tech +7.5, Over/Under 60

"We took some sharp action on Central Florida."



S Florida / Notre Dame

Opening line: Notre Dame -26, Over/Under 53

"There's parlay money on Notre Dame, but nothing big yet."

[New York Knight]

As of now, Mizzou has 12 players who will miss the Alabama game for "COVID-related situations." (September 26)

[New York Knight]

BetRivers Sportsbook


Florida Atlantic opened -6 (-230 ML) vs. Georgia Southern, but is now a +2 dog (+102)

Baylor at Houston: BU opened -6.5 (-210 ML), dropped to -4.5 (-182 ML) dropped again to -3.5 (-165 ML)

Liberty at WKU: O/U opened at 56, dropped to 54, and again to 52

Canes at U of L: O/U opened 59.5, now 64.5

[New York Knight]

FanDuel Sportsbook


WAKE FOREST AT NC STATE

Opening line: North Carolina State -3, Over/Under 55.5


This game is down to pick 'em at FanDuel. Wake Forest is taking 62% of spread bets and 69% of money, and bettors are also on Wake moneyline, which is drawing 63% of tickets and 76% of dollars bet.

The total was a quick mover this week at FanDuel, from 56.5 to 52.5 by Tuesday, and as of Friday, 76% of bets and 86% of dollars were on the Under.

[New York Knight]

DraftKings Sportsbook


(18) MIAMI AT (16) LOUISVILLE

Opening line: Louisville -1.5, Over/Under 61


DraftKings opened Louisville -1.5 and quickly moved to -2.5, where the line has remained all week. 65% of tickets and 78% of money are on the Cardinals, as of Friday afternoon.

And although only 32% of tickets are on the Over, 87% of money is on the Over, with the total plowing from 59.5 to 64.5 in the process.



SYRACUSE AT PITTSBURGH

Opening line: Pittsburgh -20.5, Over/Under 50.5


Pittsburgh opened -20.5 at DraftKings and rose to -22 before ticking back 21.5, and the underdog is the play so far. Syracuse is landing 63% of spread tickets and 84% of money bet.

The total dropped from 51.5 to 50, with 60% of bets and 71% of dollars on the Under.



SOUTH FLORIDA AT (7) NOTRE DAME

Opening line: Notre Dame -26, Over/Under 53


DraftKings opened Notre Dame -26, dropped to -25, rose to -26.5 and dropped back to -25.5 Thursday. South Florida is attracting 60% of tickets and 61% of dollars so far.



TULSA AT (12) OKLAHOMA STATE

Opening line: Oklahoma State -22.5, Over/Under 65


Oklahoma State was at -23.5 Sunday, dipped to -21.5 Monday, but is now back to -23.5 at DraftKings. Bettors are all over the Cowboys, who are garnering 78% of point-spread tickets and 89% of spread dollars.

The total moved from 64.5 to 66, with the Over getting 67% of bets and 84% of cash.

[New York Knight]

It’s well known that the public loves to pound the over on total points in a game. But this weekend, in college football, the money is on the under more than most can remember.


Notre Dame / USF

Total points: 47.5 ... FanDuel has 76% of the money on the under and PointsBet has 80%


BC-Duke

Total points: 51.5 ... FanDuel has 81% of the money on the under, DraftKings has 88%, while PointsBet has 90%.

“When we look down the slate of games each weekend, you’d be hard pressed to find more than a couple games where betting is heavily on the under,” said PointsBet spokesman Patrick Eichner. “This week it seems to be the rule, not the exception.”


Take, for example, the heaviest bet total for PointsBet: Wake Forest vs. NC State. There’s 95% on the under of 52.5 points.

“I think there’s the perception that guys are kind of rusty and the games will go slower,” Eichner said.


The perception is, as is almost always with the public, mostly focused on what happened last week.

[New York Knight]

[New York Knight]

Will Hill


The biggest wager taken thus far at William Hill for Week 3’s action has not come in on a spread, but rather a total. A Nevada bettor laid $4,400 on SMU/North Texas under 70 points (-110) for a total potential payout of $8,400. That total currently resides at 69.

Louisville has drawn the two largest wagers thus far for the Miami game, as one Nevada bettor placed $2,900 on Louisville -145 moneyline for a total potential payout of $4,900 and another Nevada bettor put $2,000 on Louisville -2.5 (-110) for a total potential payout of $3,818.20.

[New York Knight]

BetRivers Sportsbook


Coastal Carolina vs. Campbell

73% of ML bets on Coastal ML ... public still split on O/U 60 and Coastal -27.5

69% of total handle on the Chanticleers

[New York Knight]

BetOnline


Campbell vs. Coastal Carolina

56% of $$ on Coastal Carolina -28

52% of $$ on Over 60.5

[New York Knight]

Navy vs. Tulane Weather Report


As of Saturday morning, forecasts are calling for rain to go along with 17-mph winds throughout the afternoon in New Orleans. And it’s the latter element that’s really been the influencer in college football betting.


Since 2005, college football games that have seen average wind speeds of at least 13 MPH have hit the under at a 57% clip on a sample of almost 1,000 games. The 544-415-35 record to the under has produced 97.4 units of profit for a 9.8% return on investment.

And that makes sense. With passing plays being made more difficult, not only are the number of explosive plays cut down, but the ball remaining on the ground ensures that the clock will continue to run throughout the game. Field goals, of course, also see a significant bump in difficulty.

This total opened at 50.5, and was sitting at 47.5/48 at the start of the day. And with the forecast becoming more clear (that it won’t be clear) as kickoff approaches, it’s continued its drop this morning, now sitting at a consensus 47, with several shops down to just 46.5.

56% of bettors accounting for 77% of actual money have taken the under. And if you wish to join them in following the weather, be sure to shop around. While most books are now at 47 or below, DraftKings is still offering a now rare 47.5 as of 9 a.m. ET.

[New York Knight]

Line movements:

(opening number in parenthesis)

UL-Laf @ Ga St total (61.5) 56.5
Wake Forest (+3) -1 @ NC St
Miami @ Louisville total (61) 65
Liberty @ WKU total (55.5) 51.5
La Tech @ So. Miss total (54.5) 58.5
App St (-3.5) -5.5 @ Marshall total (57) 59.5

[New York Knight]

Cincinnati WR Alec Pierce will miss today’s game against Austin Peay.

UC’s top WR tweaked his knee. He led UC with 652 receiving yards last year.

[New York Knight]

BetMGM


BC-DUKE

Duke from -5.5 to -6 a couple times

"Sharp play on Duke -5.5."

Book also took "sizable" parlay on Boston College +5.5/Under 51.5

[New York Knight]

William Hill


BC-DUKE

"Good action, dead even."

Duke from -5.5 to -6

[New York Knight]

SuperBook


USF-ND

Notre Dame from -25.5 down to -23.5 by this morning

"Public on South Florida and the Over."

Total at 48

[New York Knight]

William Hill


USF-ND

Notre Dame from -25.5 to -26, then back to -24

But: "We're definitely gonna need South Florida, but it won't be too crazy."

[New York Knight]

BetMGM


USF-ND

Notre Dame from -26 to -23.5

"Ticket count almost dead even, and money is really close. Right now, we lose a little to South Florida."

[New York Knight]

SuperBook


MIA-LOU

Louisville -2.5 all week, drops to -1.5 this morning

"Public taking Miami, but also Louisville moneyline."

[New York Knight]

BetMGM


MIA-LOU

Louisville from -2.5 to -1.5 today

"Really good two-way on tickets, not a lot going on here yet."

[New York Knight]

William Hill


MIA-LOU

Louisville from -2 to -2.5, back to -2.5 today

"Good two-way action, not sure who we're gonna need. It'll be heavily bet, though."

[New York Knight]

William Hill


TUL-OKST

Oklahoma State from -22 to -23.5

"We're gonna need the 'dog and Under for sure. It's just a matter of how much."

Total at 66.5

[New York Knight]

BetMGM


TULSA-OKST

"All Oklahoma State. Tickets 5/1 and money 10/1, parlay liability too. That's one of our bigger decisions of the early games."

Cowboys from -21.5 to -23.5