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  #1  
Old 03-31-2019, 07:46 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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baskets Final Four / Title Game Betting Info

SuperBook

Tournament winner updated ...

Virginia 3/2
Michigan St 7/4
Texas Tech 4/1
Auburn 7/1


Final Four game lines ...

Texas Tech (133)
Michigan St -3

Auburn (131)
Virginia -5.5
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  #2  
Old 03-31-2019, 07:47 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Underdogs 2-0 ATS Sunday with Auburn (+190) & Michigan State (+135) pulling outright upsets ... Over/Unders 1-1

Dogs 3-1 ATS in Great 8 ... Overs 3-1

Dogs improve to 33-27 ATS overall ... O/U 29-29-2
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  #3  
Old 03-31-2019, 07:47 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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SportsLine simulated the Final Four 10,000 times

Here’s who ended up winning the National Championship the most:

Virginia: 38.4%
Michigan State: 29.3%
Texas Tech: 18.7%
Auburn: 13.6%
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  #4  
Old 03-31-2019, 07:51 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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MGM Race and Sports

Current ....... Highest

Virginia +150 .... 20-1
Mich St +160 .... 20-1
Tex Tech +350 .... 75-1
Auburn +750 .... 60-1
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  #5  
Old 04-01-2019, 02:32 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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BetOnline

Early Final Four action report

(bet count)

58% on Michigan St (-3) v Texas Tech
82% on Auburn (+5.5) v Virginia
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  #6  
Old 04-01-2019, 02:43 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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SuperBook

Possible National Championship Game matchups ...


Michigan St
Virginia -1

Texas Tech
Virginia -3

Auburn
Michigan St -4.5

Auburn
Texas Tech -2
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  #7  
Old 04-01-2019, 04:18 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Bookmaker

$$

Pretty evenly bet so far ...

Texas Tech +3 vs Michigan State -3 (53%)
Auburn +5.5 vs Virginia -5.5 (54%)
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  #8  
Old 04-02-2019, 03:06 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Since 2005, the team with the better seed in the Final Four and championship game have gone 19-9-1 ATS


Current numbers at Sports Insights Contributing Books ...

26% of bets on 1-seed UVA -5.5 vs. 5-seed Auburn

49% of bets on 2-seed MSU -2.5 vs. 3-seed Texas Tech
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  #9  
Old 04-02-2019, 03:58 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Favorites have won all 6 National Semifinal games the last three years (4-2 ATS)


Dating back to 2002, the last 13 National Semifinal favorites of at least 5 points are 6-7 ATS and 9-4 SU


7 Top 5 seeds won Sweet 16 and Great 8 games as a dog and then were a dog vs Top 4 seed in the Final Four ... Those 7 went 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS. Only SU winner was 1991 KU vs UNC. 2012 UL covered 8.5 vs UK.

Auburn and Texas Tech fit this mold this year
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  #10  
Old 04-02-2019, 04:25 PM
Whoson1st Whoson1st is offline
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Nice info here.. NCAA Wins to get to the final 4.
Michigan State beat: Bradley Minnesota LSU and Duke : Combined 102-42 (69.8%)
Texas Tech beat: No. Kentucky, Buffalo Michigan and Gonzaga: Combined 121-24 (83.4%)
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  #11  
Old 04-02-2019, 05:40 PM
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Since 1985, 14 programs have made their Final Four debuts. Of those teams, only four were able to advance to the championship game.


In 2017, Gonzaga lost to North Carolina as a 1-point underdog in the final. The Tar Heels finished the title game on an 8-0 run, helping fans forget about the buzzer-beating loss to Villanova in the championship game the year before.

In 2010, Butler nearly pulled the upset over Duke in the championship game but Gordon Hayward’s half-court shot bounced off the rim as time expired. In 1999, UConn cut down the nets in its first trip to the Final Four. The Huskies beat a 37-1 Duke squad. Many call it a great upset, but UConn was actually favored in the title game.

In 1989, Seton Hall came out flat in its Final Four matchup with Duke, falling behind by 18 before eventually winning by 17 points. In the championship game, the Pirates had a lead against Michigan in overtime before a questionable foul with three seconds left sent Rumeal Robinson to the line — he made both shots to give the Wolverines the title.

To recap, first-time teams are 4-10 straight up in the Final Four and only one team, UConn in 1999, has won the championship in its first appearance since 1985.
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  #12  
Old 04-02-2019, 08:12 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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William Hill

Auburn (+5.5) ... 76% Tickets ... 66% $$

Michigan St. (-2.5) ... 52% Tickets ... 59% $$
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  #13  
Old 04-02-2019, 09:18 PM
Whoson1st Whoson1st is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by New York Knight View Post
SportsLine simulated the Final Four 10,000 times

Here’s who ended up winning the National Championship the most:

Virginia: 38.4%
Michigan State: 29.3%
Texas Tech: 18.7%
Auburn: 13.6%
Wonder what SportsLine's record is over the years?
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  #14  
Old 04-03-2019, 03:33 AM
ONE51RUM ONE51RUM is offline
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bet a little on auburn at +600 and bet a little that they beat mich st at +1200

5 Dimes has auburn at +635 and mich +200
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Last edited by ONE51RUM; 04-03-2019 at 03:40 AM.
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  #15  
Old 04-03-2019, 07:51 AM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Currently 80% of the betting action at Sports Interaction like Auburn (+5.5) over Virginia
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  #16  
Old 04-03-2019, 02:11 PM
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Currently 58% of the betting action at Sports Interaction like Michigan State (-2.5) over Texas Tech
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  #17  
Old 04-03-2019, 02:16 PM
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In the last 5 years of the Final Four ... 6 of the 10 games were decided by double digits.
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  #18  
Old 04-03-2019, 02:20 PM
Roma Roma is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by New York Knight View Post
Favorites have won all 6 National Semifinal games the last three years (4-2 ATS)


Dating back to 2002, the last 13 National Semifinal favorites of at least 5 points are 6-7 ATS and 9-4 SU


7 Top 5 seeds won Sweet 16 and Great 8 games as a dog and then were a dog vs Top 4 seed in the Final Four ... Those 7 went 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS. Only SU winner was 1991 KU vs UNC. 2012 UL covered 8.5 vs UK.

Auburn and Texas Tech fit this mold this year
this is what I mean when I say the momentum does not carry into the final four.

a hot team that has beaten higher seeds and gotten to the final four, loses their mojo once they are there
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  #19  
Old 04-03-2019, 04:39 PM
grzftbl grzftbl is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by New York Knight View Post
Currently 80% of the betting action at Sports Interaction like Auburn (+5.5) over Virginia
Not loving my Auburn bet after seeing this.
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  #20  
Old 04-04-2019, 06:49 AM
ONE51RUM ONE51RUM is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by grzftbl View Post
Not loving my Auburn bet after seeing this.

public loves dogs in these games , im on them because ive been on them alot this year, probably a bad bet , dont know if i can do 9 bets on that game and winem like i did on depaul/s.fla again , was trying to beat 9-0 and had 9=0 till a push got me ...... odds makers maybe knew 5.5 would getmany taking auburn even though they think line should be 8.5 why make it 8.5 if ya know 5.5 will get your action... they dont really do things like that do they?
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  #21  
Old 04-04-2019, 10:43 AM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Bet Labs ...

Most lopsided bet Final Four and title games since 2005:

63% of bets on LSU vs. UCLA (2006 Final Four)
65% of bets on Memphis vs. KU (2008 title game)
70% of bets on UNC vs. KU (2008 Final Four)

Public went 0-3 ATS in these games ... 0-3 SU



Currently, 70% of bets on Auburn +5.5 vs. UVA
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  #22  
Old 04-04-2019, 10:48 AM
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Texas Tech is 71-46-4 (61%) ATS in the 2nd half under Chris Beard


In Beard’s 10 NCAA Tournament games as a head coach, his teams are 9-1 against the second-half spread, covering by 6.7 points per game

While at Texas Tech, he is 8-0 against the second-half spread in the tournament, covering by 7.7 points per game.

Since Beard’s first year as a head coach at Arkansas Little-Rock in 2015, he is the most profitable coach against the second-half spread in the NCAA Tournament.
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  #23  
Old 04-04-2019, 10:52 AM
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Michigan State: 5-1 Under run, covering the total by 10.2 ppg (2 of the 5 Unders had totals below 132.5)

Texas Tech: 3-1 Under run, covering the total by 12.3 ppg (just 1 of the 3 Unders had totals below 132.5)
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  #24  
Old 04-04-2019, 12:50 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Bet Labs

In all Final Four and title games since 2005, the team getting a majority of bets has gone 21-20-1 ATS

55% or more of bets: 13-13-1 ATS
60% or more of bets: 4-5 ATS
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  #25  
Old 04-04-2019, 12:52 PM
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A William Hill bettor just placed a $192,000 ML wager to win $124,000 on Michigan State (-155) over Texas Tech
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