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  #26  
Old 04-04-2019, 12:55 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Final Four betting numbers

Faves since 1996 ...
SU: 31-15
ATS: 22-22-2

Since 1998 ...
Over/Under: 18-21-3
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  #27  
Old 04-04-2019, 12:57 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Conference records in the Final Four. (Faves records since 1996 and O/U #'s since 1998)


B1G: 8-10 SU, 9-8-1 ATS ... 4-12-1 O/U

Big 12: 3-6 SU & ATS ... 5-3-1 O/U

ACC: 10-7 SU, 9-8 ATS ... 8-7-1 O/U

SEC: 8-6 SU, 5-7-2 ATS ... 5-6 O/U
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  #28  
Old 04-04-2019, 01:05 PM
Whoson1st Whoson1st is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by New York Knight View Post
A William Hill bettor just placed a $192,000 ML wager to win $124,000 on Michigan State (-155) over Texas Tech
Wm Hill....Strange place.
During the football bowl season, a guy went to the betting window and asked how much he could bet a bowl game...The teller said; "all you want"..So he bet 5k and won.. The next day he went to place bowl bet for 10k on Army and was refused the bet. This was in Delaware.
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  #29  
Old 04-04-2019, 01:50 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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5-seeds or higher in the Final Four since 1996 (Auburn this year)

6-12 straight up
7-10-1 against the spread

5-9-3 O/U ... since 1998
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  #30  
Old 04-04-2019, 01:51 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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1-seeds in the Final Four since 1996 (Virginia)

23-15 straight up
20-17-1 against the spread

18-14-1 O/U ... since 1998
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  #31  
Old 04-04-2019, 02:40 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Draft Kings Sportsbook

It's still early but ...

79% of money is on Auburn (+5.5) vs. Virginia

50/50 split so far on the Texas Tech / Michigan State
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  #32  
Old 04-04-2019, 02:47 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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One thing a few oddsmakers noted is there is little value in lines once we get to the Final Four. The numbers are so tight, it even drives away some sharp bettors who make a living by exploiting soft lines.


Westgate sportsbook manager Ed Salmons ...

“Sharps aren’t betting this time of year” ... “There’s zero value for them. The only guys betting now are number guys who are trying to take even money on the money line and +1 the other way. There not really sharp guys. Sharps don’t find enough value in these numbers.”

While bets are coming in on the Final Four, a majority of the wagers, especially the large ones, will be placed on Saturday before tip-off. Most of that will be public money.
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  #33  
Old 04-04-2019, 03:25 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Team Averages Playing in Football Stadiums vs. Traditional Basketball Venues


Final Four Only ...

GP / Points / FGM / FGA / FG% / 3PM / 3PA / 3P% / eFG% / 3PA/FGA


Football Stadiums:

222 / 68.8 / 24.5 / 57.4 / 42.7% / 6.0 / 18.2 / 33.0% / 47.9% / 31.7%


All Other Games:

4440 / 74.9 / 26.4 / 56.4 / 46.9% / 6.9 / 18.9 / 36.7% / 53.1% / 33.6%
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  #34  
Old 04-04-2019, 06:24 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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PointsBet Sportsbook

Thursday update ...

"Ticket count is 2-1 in favor of the late game on Saturday but they still took some large wagers on Virginia -5.5"

“We’ve taken some big bets on Virginia from our sharp and regular customers" ... “It’s not generating as much interest as the Texas Tech game but early bettors are taking Virginia.”
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  #35  
Old 04-04-2019, 06:26 PM
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MGM ... Thursday update

Virginia is the one team the sportsbook doesn’t want to see cut the nets down Monday night.

“Our biggest problem is with Virginia" ... “We had some fairly big play on Virginia at 12/1 a couple of months ago. That’s basically the one team we want to avoid.”
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  #36  
Old 04-04-2019, 06:28 PM
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William Hill

Thursday update

Bettors are taking the points with over 70% of the tickets and money on Auburn +5.5
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  #37  
Old 04-05-2019, 01:56 PM
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William Hill

Friday update ...


Auburn (+5.5)

68% Tix ... 71% $$


Michigan St. (-2.5)

60% Tix ... 61% $$


Auburn (+210) / UVA (-250)

74% Tix on Auburn ... 71% $$ on UVA


Texas Tech (+135) / MSU (-155)

54% Tix on TT ... 95% $$ on MSU
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  #38  
Old 04-05-2019, 02:08 PM
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Auburn vs. Virginia


Jeff Davis, sportsbook risk manager at Caesars Palace ...

“The public is just piling on Auburn here"

The ticket count is almost 3 to 1 on Auburn and the moneyline ticket count is even higher.

“There’s been conflicting sharp interest”

“When we’ve gone from -5.5 down to -5 there’s been people who have laid the 5 to get us back to -5.5. So, -5.5 is probably the number we’ll be at when the game starts, but it wouldn’t shock me if the number moves a little bit more towards Auburn late. The public has really fallen in love with Auburn’s style and the quality of their opposition. They’ve also never really shown a ton of Virginia support throughout the tournament. So I expect to see a lot of the public betting with their hearts here in supporting Auburn.”


There’s more of a Pros-vs-Joes split at CG Technology, according to Tony DiTommaso ...

“The game opened at -5.5 here and the sharps jumped in immediately and bet the game down to -5 but since then we’ve seen a ton of favorite money,” DiTommaso explained. “We’re pretty high on Virginia at this point so we’re back to -5.5. Interestingly though, the ticket count is 2 to 1 on Auburn and the moneyline is pretty high on the Auburn side as well. But a lot of the Auburn money we’re seeing is smaller bets at the moment.”

As of Thursday night DiTommaso said they will be rooting for Virginia, but he seems to be in the minority.


Derek Wilkinson, executive director at the Superbook ...

“Our biggest liability is mid-five-figures on Auburn, but I don’t think it will get past Virginia this week"

“We’re rooting for either Virginia or Michigan State. Both of those would be six-figure wins for the book.”



Texas Tech vs. Michigan State

There’s a lot of buzz on social media regarding the Westgate’s liability on Texas Tech and a particular future bet a customer made months back on the Red Raiders at 200-1 for $1500.

But, according to Wilkinson, the Westgate is surprisingly not concerned about the Red Raiders.

“We’ve had a six-figure liability on Texas Tech throughout most of the season,” Wilkinson said. “However, our risk management director, Ed Salmons, has done a really great job of balancing the books in the last couple of weeks. At the moment, we would actually only lose less than $10,000 if the Red Raiders win the title.”


As for Saturday night’s game, Davis said sharp bettors at Caesars are siding with Texas Tech but the squares are on Michigan State.

“This is definitely going to be a ‘Pros vs Joe’s’ type of game. We opened the line at MSU -3 early in the week but the sharps pushed it down to -2.5, even though the ticket count is 2 to 1 for Michigan State,” Davis explained. “As expected there are more tickets on the Spartans on the spread but more tickets on Tech on the moneyline. I really don’t see this changing at any point even when the money starts rolling in heavily on Saturday.”


DiTommaso said they are seeing a similar pattern.

“The game opened here at Michigan State -3 and the sharps absolutely could not wait to jump on that number and take Texas Tech. It dropped the line to -2.5 where it stands now,” DiTommaso said. “We’ve been seeing a steady stream of money come back on the Spartans as the week has progressed. I anticipate the ticket count to be about even here as we get closer to tip off. So it definitely has a ‘Pro’s vs Joe’s’ feel to it. But I think this number is pretty locked in at this point. It’s a very fun game to book for sure.”
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  #39  
Old 04-05-2019, 02:40 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Fan Duel Sportsbook


Virginia (-6)

Auburn 61% Tix ... Auburn 72% $$


Michigan St. (-2.5)

MSU 64% Tix ... Texas Tech 54% $$
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  #40  
Old 04-05-2019, 03:17 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Draft Kings Sportsbook

Friday update ...


Auburn (+5.5) is seeing 81% of the betting handle
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  #41  
Old 04-05-2019, 03:32 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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BetOnline

One day to go ... (bet count)

58% on Michigan State -2.5

69% on Auburn +6
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  #42  
Old 04-05-2019, 03:39 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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PointsBet Sportsbook (Jersey)

They are seeing very heavy action on Texas Tech
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  #43  
Old 04-05-2019, 04:21 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Virginia is now up to a 6-point favorite at majority of Vegas books (6 of 11) on the Don Best Sports odds screen
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  #44  
Old 04-05-2019, 10:36 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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When Virginia Has the Ball ...

Virginia’s offense is designed for a high-percentage shot on every possession. It rarely forces shots and boasts the second-most efficient offense in the country.

The Cavaliers rank third best overall from 3-point range while shooting almost 75% from the foul line. They also average only 9.1 turnovers per game, the second-fewest in the country. This will be vitally important against Auburn, which has the highest defensive turnover percentage in the country.

Junior Ty Jerome (13.3 ppg) has been Virginia’s most consistent scorer, reaching double-digits in all four tournament games. His backcourt mate Kyle Guy (15.2 ppg) broke out of a three-game slump against Purdue with 25 points on 5 of 12 shooting from beyond the arc.

However, the biggest advantage will come with guard De’Andre Hunter (14.9 ppg). The 6-foot-7 sophomore will benefit from the absence of Auburn’s Chuma Okeke. He can attack the basket off the dribble and shoots 42.4% from 3-point range.

Expect Bennett to also use reserves Braxton Key (5.8 ppg, 5.2 rpg) and Jay Huff (4.5 ppg, 46.7% 3P) much more in this game. Four of the last six Final Four games have hit the over, so Virginia might need more scoring to reach the title game. Best


When Auburn Has the Ball ...

Just because Virginia ranks top five in defensive efficiency doesn’t mean Auburn’s offense will be left for dead.

Virginia’s pack-line defense is meant to limit the opposition’s ability to attack the basket off the dribble, but it’s still allowed the 104th-highest 3-point scoring rate (34.0%). It allowed Purdue guard Carsen Edwards to shoot 10-of-19 (52.6%) from behind the arc in their Elite Eight matchup, allowing the Boilermakers to creep back into the game before losing in overtime.

The Tigers’ sixth-rated Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (120.6 points per 100 possessions) hinges on its perimeter offense, producing the seventh-ranked 3-point scoring rate. It’s a product of their 15th-rated 3-point clip (38.3%), led by their starting backcourt of Jared Harper and Bryce Brown in transition.

Even if UVA keeps the rebounding margin tight while limiting Auburn from pushing the pace as often as the Tigers want, Pearl’s half-court sets should still be effective enough because of Harper and Brown’s quickness off the bounce.

Despite the loss of 6-foot-8 Chuma Okeke (torn ACL), Auburn bigs Austin Wiley, Horace Spencer, Anfernee McLemore and Daniel Purifoy will provide enough of a gang rebounding effort to generate second-chance opportunities to create mismatches from behind the arc.
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  #45  
Old 04-05-2019, 11:16 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by New York Knight View Post
Texas Tech is 71-46-4 (61%) ATS in the 2nd half under Chris Beard


In Beard’s 10 NCAA Tournament games as a head coach, his teams are 9-1 against the second-half spread, covering by 6.7 points per game

While at Texas Tech, he is 8-0 against the second-half spread in the tournament, covering by 7.7 points per game.

Since Beard’s first year as a head coach at Arkansas Little-Rock in 2015, he is the most profitable coach against the second-half spread in the NCAA Tournament.

Beard is 32-8-1 (80%) against the second-half spread when facing a non-conference opponent over his career, including 23-4 (85.2%) against the second-half spread when facing those opponents on the road or on a neutral court.
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  #46  
Old 04-05-2019, 11:18 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Texas Tech averages 69.4 possessions per game, the 260th slowest pace in college basketball.

Since 2005, slow-paced (70 or fewer possessions per game) underdogs have gone 166-125-11 (57%) ATS in the tournament
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  #47  
Old 04-06-2019, 01:26 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Highest public concentration ... Texas Tech (but not heavy)

Highest sharp concentration ... MSU/Texas Tech Over
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  #48  
Old 04-06-2019, 01:28 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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74% of the betting action at Sports Interaction like Auburn (+6) over Virginia

61% like Michigan State (-2.5) over Texas Tech
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  #49  
Old 04-06-2019, 02:04 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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South Point

Just took a "pretty big bet" on Virginia -6 vs. Auburn

Line moves to 6.5
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  #50  
Old 04-06-2019, 02:35 PM
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Currently, 60% of spread tickets on Auburn +6 vs. UVA at Sports Insights Contributing Books

Since 2005 ...

<50% of bets: 497-449-24 (52.5%) ATS

Favorites getting <50% of bets: 135-108-5 (55.6%) ATS
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