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  #76  
Old 04-06-2019, 11:42 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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MGM Race & Sports

Just took $165,000 on Virginia -1

Now -1.5
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  #77  
Old 04-06-2019, 11:46 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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KenPom

Virginia 61-58
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  #78  
Old 04-07-2019, 04:07 AM
buli buli is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by New York Knight View Post
Mr. P ... Going Hard on Sparty

MSU -1.5 for $283,000 to win $250,000

$136,000 to win $100,000 on MSU -136
Thank you knight...played ttech just because of this! love this guy...
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  #79  
Old 04-07-2019, 11:47 AM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Over the past 20 years only 6 teams have finished the NCAA Tournament 6-0 ATS:

-2006 Florida
-2009 North Carolina
-2014 Connecticut
-2015 Duke
-2016 Villanova
-2018 Villanova

Texas Tech (+1) could become the 7th to do so if it beats UVA on Monday.
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  #80  
Old 04-07-2019, 01:05 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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BetOnline

Early National Championship report (bet count):

60% on Texas Tech +1.5
68% on Texas Tech +101
61% on Under 117.5
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  #81  
Old 04-07-2019, 04:29 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Total currently 118

The under is 5-4 when 118 or less this season.

Since 2005, under plays in NCAA Tournament games with a total of 118 or less are 6-5-1
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  #82  
Old 04-07-2019, 09:35 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Westgate sportsbook manager Ed Salmons ...


“If you go around the streets now, you’d get 80% of people telling you Texas Tech and the under"

“Valuewise, this spread should be higher. But it’s not, because everybody knows everybody wants to bet on Texas Tech and the under.

“There’s zero value on Texas Tech and the under. The only way to bet this game is Virginia and the over. But I’m probably the only person in the world saying that. That’s where all the line value is.”

Salmons set the total for a regular-season game between the teams at 123.

“You have to bet the over or don’t bet. If you bet under, numbers mean nothing to you and you just want to gamble"

“It could wind up 42-40 but there’s zero value in betting the under.”
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  #83  
Old 04-08-2019, 02:28 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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BetOnline

Majority of action yet to come in, but here is where the cash in on so far:

59% on Texas Tech +1.5
51% on Under 118
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  #84  
Old 04-08-2019, 02:33 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading for William Hill ...


No. 3 Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. No. 1 Virginia Cavaliers – Open: -1.5; Move: -1

“Excellent action so far, well above what I thought it would be,” Bogdanovich said of wagering at William Hill’s shops in Las Vegas, across Nevada, and in New Jersey and Mississippi. “The public is on Texas Tech, no question. We opened Virginia -1.5, we’re down to -1. We’re gonna need Virginia.”

William Hill US opened the total at 119, among the lowest in NCAA Tournament history, and quickly dropped to 118.

“There’s excellent action on the total, too, but it’s two-way action,” Bogdanovich said. “That’s a good number, bouncing between 117.5 and 118.”

Bogdanovich said William Hill is good to either team in the futures book. However, the overall picture – pregame wagering, futures, in-game, props, etc. – could alter William Hill’s needs in the next few hours.

“Both teams are good in the futures, Texas Tech is better,” he said. “But overall, it’s too early to tell. The game could flip, but I doubt it.”
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  #85  
Old 04-08-2019, 02:39 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Defense is often undervalued by the public, as casual bettors tend to overlook teams following strong defensive showings in the tournament. That is a mistake.

Since 2005, teams that held their previous opponent to fewer than 60 points have gone 224-178-10 (55.7%) against the spread in their next game during March Madness.

With defense being undervalued, oddsmakers are less likely to inflate the lines, making it easier for defensive teams to cover.

Underdogs following a great defensive game are the best bets. Texas Tech limited Michigan State, which had averaged 77.6 points per game (48th in nation), to 51 points in their Final Four meeting.

169-123-6 ... +$3,708
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  #86  
Old 04-08-2019, 02:43 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Texas Tech is 72-46-4 ATS in the 2nd half under Chris Beard

In Beard’s 11 NCAA Tournament games as a head coach, his teams are 10-1 against the second-half spread

While at Texas Tech, he is 9-0 against the second-half spread in the tournament

Beard is 33-8-1 against the second-half spread when facing a non-conference opponent over his career

24-4 against the second-half spread when facing those opponents on the road or on a neutral court

Last edited by New York Knight; 04-08-2019 at 02:47 PM.
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  #87  
Old 04-08-2019, 02:52 PM
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CG Technology


56% tickets on Texas Tech
56% of money on Virginia

56% on Moneyline UVA

2x more tickets on Over 117.5 ... but money is even on it
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  #88  
Old 04-08-2019, 02:58 PM
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Fan Duel Sportsbook


Virginia (-1.5)

Spread $$ ... 67% Tech

Spread Bet Count ... 55% Tech


ML $$ ... 54% Virginia

ML Bet Count ... 63% Tech
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  #89  
Old 04-08-2019, 03:06 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Bet Labs

Small favorites (3 or fewer points) in the NCAA Tournament that receive less than 50% of bets have gone 47-32-4 (60%) ATS since 2005

Currently, 42% of spread tickets are on UVA -1.5 according to Sports Insights Contributing Books
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  #90  
Old 04-08-2019, 03:52 PM
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Draft Kings Sportsbook

Virginia (-2)

Spread: 77% $$ on Tech ... 64% Tix on Tech

ML: 59% $$ on Tech ... 67% Tix on Tech

Total (117.5) ... 80% $$ & 71% Tix on Over
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  #91  
Old 04-08-2019, 03:56 PM
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Caesars Palace Books

Texas Tech vs. Virginia (-1, 118)

Tickets are nearly 2-1 in favor of Texas Tech

Money wagered is about 1.25-1 on Tech
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  #92  
Old 04-08-2019, 03:58 PM
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William Hill

Texas Tech vs. Virginia (-1, 118)

53% of point-spread bets ... 56% of money wagered is on the Red Raiders

56% money on the Over
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  #93  
Old 04-08-2019, 04:04 PM
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Chris Beard teams have been an underdog 7 times in the NCAA Tournament. They have won 5 of them outright.
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  #94  
Old 04-08-2019, 04:27 PM
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US Bookmaking saw so much action on the underdog Red Raiders that it moved the line to pick 'em as of Monday afternoon, according to oddsmaker Robert Walker.

"Most players are on the dog early," he said. "There's been a lot of dog play in this tournament."

The split of money wagered on Texas Tech and Virginia at US Bookmaking is about 60/40, Walker estimated.

Not having Zion Williamson and Duke in the championship game may have decreased the handle by "10 or 20 percent, because everyone knows Duke," Walker said. But even though this might not be the sexiest matchup for television executives, it's still getting plenty of wagering acton with US Bookmaking -- even though having it at pick 'em is taking away some of the potential moneyline action.

"Very few people know Texas Tech, but it adds to what the tournament is," Walker said. "It's going to be a really fun game. I can see it being maybe two or three possessions one way or the other the entire game."

It's also expected to be an excellent defensive matchup, leading to the extremely low total (118.5 from US Bookmaking, the Westgate SuperBook at William Hill as of Monday afternoon). The first-half total is just 54.

As such, bettors are "taking a hard look at the OVER," Walker said. And, as a result, Texas Tech and the OVER are liabilities for the book.
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  #95  
Old 04-08-2019, 04:36 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Virginia still a 1-point favorite at 7 of 11 Vegas books with SuperBook & Wynn joining South Point & MGM at Virginia -1.5

Over/Under up to 118.5 at 9 books (CG Technology & Treasure Island at 118)
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  #96  
Old 04-08-2019, 04:38 PM
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The Greek Sportsbook

Sharp Action

Over (small)
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  #97  
Old 04-08-2019, 05:07 PM
Tia Maria Tia Maria is offline
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Thumbs down

Worthless information, are you making it up?
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  #98  
Old 04-08-2019, 05:11 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Yes it's all fake
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  #99  
Old 04-08-2019, 05:33 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Red Raiders are 15-6-1 ATS against squads with a .650 or higher winning percentage. They’re also 4-1 ATS this season as an underdog of three points or less.
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  #100  
Old 04-08-2019, 05:38 PM
jstwinn7 jstwinn7 is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tia Maria View Post
Worthless information, are you making it up?

Sorry but this is not necessary. Everyone can decide how useful it is for themselves
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