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  #1  
Old 11-04-2019, 11:36 AM
southerncoach southerncoach is online now
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Good Teams Win, GREAT Teams Cover ...

I read an article about a system using kenpom's ratings. it went 100-37 LY.
hasn't done that well everyyear. I created a database to find out who the teams are that qualify. I will post them here

It is only effective Nov - Jan. I checked it out for the month of march and early april. Only 50-50 maybe little less.
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Old 11-04-2019, 12:19 PM
southerncoach southerncoach is online now
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first 3 games it has.

11/5 ...
Mich. ST -2' over KY
Louisville NL yet over Mia (fl)

11/6
UNC NL yet over Notre dame...
GL
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Old 11-04-2019, 06:26 PM
Bustamove22 Bustamove22 is online now
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Thanks Southern Coach, very interesting!

Louisville -7 currently
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Old 11-05-2019, 10:45 AM
bigjimt bigjimt is offline
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"No HC has ever been fired for covering too much."

What is the underlying basis of the system you're tracking?
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Old 11-05-2019, 12:32 PM
southerncoach southerncoach is online now
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bigjimt:
an article I read where using kenpom ratings, top 'Final 4 caliber' teams went 100-47 LY against the spread in Novermber thru January.

the teams has to have Offadj >= 114.0, Defadj <=96.2 and Adjem >=23.81

NC, Mchst & Louisville qualified for todays opening games. The list will vary as we go along and teams win & lose.
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Old 11-05-2019, 09:38 PM
southerncoach southerncoach is online now
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11/6 ...Kenpom Play...

UNC -10' over Notre Dame.
I would bet this early...this will probably go up.
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Old 11-06-2019, 05:17 PM
bigjimt bigjimt is offline
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Good Luck tonight SC.
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Old 11-06-2019, 06:31 PM
southerncoach southerncoach is online now
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wow. went down to 9' now.
I bought the hook down to 10. coulda' waited and got the whole point for free.
OH well. drunk me doesn't make good decisions...
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Old 11-06-2019, 06:31 PM
southerncoach southerncoach is online now
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wow. went down to 9' now.
I bought the hook down to 10. coulda' waited and got the whole point for free.
OH well. drunk me doesn't make good decisions...
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Old 11-06-2019, 11:50 PM
xxxFTWxxx xxxFTWxxx is offline
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still covered ;)

looks good will be keeping an eye on this system
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Old 11-07-2019, 01:15 AM
southerncoach southerncoach is online now
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this will be a very fluid thing until things settle down and the cream comes to the top. I have written some queries to take the human error out of it. we'll see how it does.

2-1 so far ...
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Old 11-07-2019, 08:33 AM
PICKSBYPETE PICKSBYPETE is offline
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ok gl
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Old 11-07-2019, 09:05 AM
southerncoach southerncoach is online now
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thx pete .. we'll see how it goes
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Old 11-10-2019, 06:50 AM
southerncoach southerncoach is online now
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Nov. 10th. One team qualifies on today's slate.
Michigan state over Binghamton. … Line opened at -34' … now 35 …lotta' chalk...KenPom predicts 87-53 score ...

Let He who has balls … Bet it...

Last edited by southerncoach; 11-10-2019 at 06:52 AM.
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Old 11-14-2019, 03:30 AM
southerncoach southerncoach is online now
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Nov 14th … One qualifier toda.
Mich. state -6 over seton hall...''

3-1 so far …

GL
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Old 11-14-2019, 06:20 PM
moondog22 moondog22 is offline
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good luck coach
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Old 11-18-2019, 12:27 PM
southerncoach southerncoach is online now
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3-2 so far ... Mich st -34 over Charl So.

Today, Nov 18. Mich st vs. Charleston So. goes at 6:30 PM EST

opened at -32 .. now 34, some places 34'.

Michigan St is the only qualifier so far. and just by a whisker.

GL
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Old 11-18-2019, 01:43 PM
Dale City Dale City is online now
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Good luck SC
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Old 11-19-2019, 01:48 AM
southerncoach southerncoach is online now
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line topped out at -38, margin was 48 …
4-2 now...
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Old 11-25-2019, 08:25 PM
southerncoach southerncoach is online now
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well I missed a play...Mich state -13 over va tech was a play today.
And I'm damn glad I missed it. MSU lost as a 13 pt HF.

they were the only qualifier in this system. Probably won't be from now on.

this is 4-3 so far and 1-0 in the Damn I'm Glad I Missed it Column
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Old 11-25-2019, 08:29 PM
southerncoach southerncoach is online now
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wasn't it that famous handicapper William "Billy" Walters (currently serving time in prison somewhere for insider trading) who said, "If you can't pick winners, try not to pick losers"

Or maybe I just said that. Anyway, today didn't pick a loser...
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Old 11-26-2019, 01:28 AM
jim1701 jim1701 is offline
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Gud angle to play anyway...have you tried to cipher it down a bit...maybe just play the Home..or Away games?
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Old 11-27-2019, 01:50 AM
southerncoach southerncoach is online now
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Jim
the basic problem with this whole thing is that the article bases its record on teams who were qualifiers at the end of January when the think turns and starts losing or being 50-50. so a lot of these teams probably weren't qualifiers early on. I think last year may have been a kind of outlier because there were a lot of teams who were senior laden and had great players who could dominate everyone else. this season, too early to tell. but, I think more balanced.
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Old 11-27-2019, 01:54 AM
southerncoach southerncoach is online now
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Michigan state was a qualifier again tonight vs. Georgia -14. they won 93-85, but once again didn't cover. I think Kenpom has them overrated a bit.
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Old 11-27-2019, 01:58 AM
southerncoach southerncoach is online now
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you can goto his site and look at the teams who have have Offadj >= 114.0, Defadj <=96.2 and Adjem >=23.81. there are a lot of them that fit the defadj and adjem.
only 2 who >= 114.0
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