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Old 08-20-2019, 12:17 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Exclamation NFL Betting Info

Bettors have spoken: The Chicago Bears and the Cleveland Browns, and their young quarterbacks are public darlings at Vegas sportsbooks.



There are more bets on the Bears to win the Super Bowl than there are on any other team at multiple sportsbooks. The Browns are right behind the Bears in Super Bowl bets.

"It's been kind of overwhelming, the support [for the Bears]," said Alan Berg, the senior oddsmaker for Caesars Sportsbook. "Every time the Bears go to the playoffs, the following year, the money just pours in. Everybody gets optimistic."

The Bears are 9-1 to win the Super Bowl at Caesars, the fourth-best odds behind the New England Patriots and Kansas City Chiefs, who are co-favorites at 7-1, and the New Orleans Saints at 17-2. The Browns are 10-1.

Those five -- the Patriots, Chiefs, Saints, Bears and Browns -- are the only teams that have already attracted more than $1 million in Super Bowl bets at MGM sportsbooks in Nevada.

In addition to the Super Bowl bets, Bears quarterback Mitchell Trubisky and Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield are the most popular bets to win NFL MVP. At the SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas, Trubisky's odds to win the MVP have moved from 200-1 to 50-1. Only Mayfield has attracted more bets than Trubisky at the SuperBook.

"They're going wild on Baker Mayfield," said SuperBook vice president of risk management Ed Salmons, who noted that more than $40,000 had already been bet on his shop's NFL MVP odds.

Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is the MVP favorite at 9-2.

Trubisky's MVP odds are down to 22-1 at Caesars, putting him in the same tier as Matt Ryan, Russell Wilson and Tom Brady.

"The support from Trubisky has been ridiculous," Berg, a longtime Bears fan, said. "Trubisky, at 22-1, is an insane number."

The story is drastically different at New Jersey and Pennsylvania sportsbooks, where bettors are loading up on the Philadelphia Eagles.

Nearly 50 percent of the Super Bowl bets at SugarHouse sportsbooks in Pennsylvania have been on the Eagles, with more than half the bets on the NFL MVP odds on quarterback Carson Wentz.

DraftKings and FanDuel, the two largest sportsbooks in New Jersey, also said the Eagles had attracted the most bets to win the Super Bowl and Wentz had the most bets to win the NFL MVP. The Eagles are 13-1 to win the Super Bowl, and Wentz is 14-1 to win MVP at DraftKings

"It makes sense," DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avello said. "It matters where you're located and if you're pretty good, and the Eagles look like a pretty good team."

In Las Vegas, however, the Eagles are in the middle of the pack in terms of betting interest and are not in the top 10 in Super Bowl bets at Caesars Sportsbook.

"Funny enough, our best result in New Jersey is the Bears," Berg said.
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  #2  
Old 08-20-2019, 12:30 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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4 teams that have covered a combined 67.7% of games off a loss since 2014 (101 games):

Vikings 22-9 ATS
Seahawks 17-8-2 ATS
Patriots 12-6 ATS
Steelers 16-9 ATS


67-32-2 ATS
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Old 08-20-2019, 12:30 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Super Bowl losers in Week 1 are 2-12-2 ATS since 2003
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Old 08-20-2019, 12:31 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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In the 2018 NFL season, the team that covered the spread covered by a touchdown or more in 141 out of 256 games.

Thatís 55.1% of games.
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Old 08-20-2019, 12:32 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Saints are 1-9 ATS in Weeks 1 and 2 since 2014

3-13 ATS since 2011
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Old 08-20-2019, 12:34 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Falcons are 10-1 ATS their last 11 home openers.

They open at home Week 2 vs the Eagles on Sunday Night Football
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Old 08-20-2019, 12:37 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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West coast teams playing 1PM ET in September:


Rams @ Carolina ... Week 1

Cards @ Ravens ... Week 2
Chargers @ Lions
49ers @ Bengals
Seahawks @ Steelers

Raiders @ Vikings ... Week 3
Broncos @ Packers

Raiders @ Colts ... Week 4
Chargers @ Dolphins
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Old 08-20-2019, 12:39 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Patriots are 12-6 ATS off a loss since 2014

They're also 13-5 to the Under after a loss in this stretch too, giving up only 17.4 ppg
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Old 08-20-2019, 12:40 PM
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Cowboys Unders are 24-9 on the road since 2015

Road games: Redskins / Saints / Jets, and Giants the first half of the season
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Old 08-20-2019, 12:41 PM
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Thursday Night Football trends show the home team has a stronger edge later in the season when injuries and fatigue become more of a factor:


Home teams are 26-12-1 ATS on TNF in Weeks 6-17 the last 4 seasons.

Home teams are 7-9-1 ATS in Weeks 2-5 during this same stretch.
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Old 08-20-2019, 12:42 PM
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Since 2016, the Steelers have a 19-7 Under (73.1%) record on the road compared to a 15-11 Over (57.7%) record at home.

They've averaged 29.4 ppg at home during this stretch and just 22.3 ppg on the road.
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Old 08-20-2019, 12:43 PM
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The Chargers have just a 14-25 ATS (35.9%) home record since 2014 but a 26-15-1 ATS (63.1%) away record.

This is the worst home edge in the NFL and the team consistently performs better on the road. The standard -3 given to home teams in the NFL can't be applied in Bolts games.
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  #13  
Old 08-20-2019, 12:44 PM
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Seahawks covered their half of a 6 point teaser in 26 of 33 games (78.8%) the last 2 seasons.

They went 16-14-2 ATS during this time.
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Old 08-20-2019, 12:46 PM
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Overs are on a 24-11-1 run (68.6%) in Steelers home games when they are favored.
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Old 08-20-2019, 12:47 PM
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Buccaneers 2-14 ATS on the road the last 2 seasons
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Old 08-20-2019, 12:48 PM
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Giants are 4-11-1 ATS at MetLife the last 2 seasons
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Old 08-20-2019, 12:51 PM
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Seahawks are 24-6-3 ATS in primetime since 2007 and 11-2 ATS if an underdog

They play in primetime Weeks 5, 10, 12, 13, and 14
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Old 08-20-2019, 12:51 PM
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Raiders are 4-21 SU their last 25 games that started at 1ET
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Old 08-20-2019, 12:53 PM
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Notable home/road QB dropoffs in 2018:


Goff:
8.2 yards/attempt home ... 6.8 road
22:3 TD:INT home ... 10:9 road

Trubisky:
19:9 TD:INT home ... 5:3 road

Brees:
8.4 yards/attempt home ... 6.5 road

Dak:
6.7 yards/attempt home ... 5.5 road
65.3% completions home ... 57.8% road
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Old 08-20-2019, 12:54 PM
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Saints haven't won a Week 1 game since 2013

0-5 SU and ATS
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Old 08-20-2019, 01:02 PM
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Ravens are 8-3 ATS their last 11 Week 1s
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Old 08-20-2019, 01:43 PM
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Add on to post #20


2018: Saints -10 vs Bucs ... Lost 48-40
2017: Saints +3 at Vikings ... Lost 29-19
2016: Saints -2.5 vs Oak ... Lost 35-34
2015: Saints +2 at Cards ... Lost 31-19
2014: Saints -3 at Falcons ... Lost 37-34

Texans +7 at Saints Week 1
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Old 08-20-2019, 02:07 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by New York Knight View Post
Super Bowl losers in Week 1 are 2-12-2 ATS since 2003

Panthers 10-5 ATS their last 15 as a dog
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Old 08-20-2019, 04:31 PM
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Since 2014 week #1 division dogs are 11-2-1 ATS (84.6%)? There are 5 this season!

Packers, Giants, Redskins, Bills, Broncos
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2013 MLB Capper of the Year
MLB 8-7-1(53%)+$1211
WNBA 0-1 (0%)-$300
CFB 2-3(40%)-$255
NFL 5-3(54%)$1075
NHL 0-4(0%)-$2055

NBA 7-6(64%)-$315
CBB 12-9-2(57%)$1935
MMA 1-0(100%)+$1300

Last edited by Andre; 08-20-2019 at 04:34 PM.
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  #25  
Old 08-20-2019, 08:14 PM
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In Week 1, at least one dog of +200 or greater has won outright in 11 of past 14 seasons according to Bet Labs


Biggest moneyline underdogs for Week 1:

CIN +375 at SEA
WAS +325 at PHI
NYG +285 at DAL
HOU +250 at NO
PIT +220 at NE
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