2021 AFC betting preview

[Kramer]

2021 AFC FOOTBALL BETTING PREVIEW
By Marc Lawrence


THE MORE THE MERRIER

For the first time in NFL history, there will be a season with 18 weeks on the schedule and 17 games to play in the regular season.

With the odd amount of weeks, all AFC teams will take on an extra home game in 2021, with all NFC teams playing an extra road game.

The script will flip starting next season and continue in alternation years.

Super Bowl LVI will be played on Sunday, February 13 at SoFi Stadium, the home of the Los Angeles Chargers and the Los Angles Rams.

The league will play two games in London this season when the New York Jets meet the Atlanta Falcons on October 10 and the Miami Dolphins tackle the Jackson Jaguars on October 17.

PUT A CAP ON IT

The Browns boast the NFL's most expensive offense in 2021 with a little more than $141.7M in cap commitments on that side of the ball—and that comes with a quarterback (Baker Mayfield) on a rookie contract!


The Bills play a ton of 10-personnel and it shows. No team is spending less cash this season on tight ends and running backs combined than Buffalo's $10.7M in 2021.

The Ravens will pay less money to quarterbacks in 2021 ($3.4M) than any other team in football.


No team in football is currently scheduled to spend less cash than Pittsburgh's $168.5M in 2021.

FUN FACT

The New England Patriots were almost known as the BS Patriots, or Bay State Patriots. They started out as the Boston Patriots, but once they moved to their current home in Foxborough, the owner wanted a name more representative of the region. However, his name didn't last long as the NFL wasn't fond of the initials.

Note: Team write-ups are excerpts from the 2021 PLAYBOOK Football Preview Guide magazine – on sale at newsstands nationwide or PlaybookSports.com. Season win Totals are compliments of SuperBook.com / @SuperBookUSA



AFC EAST
Buffalo

TEAM THEME: HURDY GIRDER MAN
Westgate SuperBook Season Win Total: 11

Opponents' Collective Season Win Total: 143.5
After making the playoffs and reaching double-digit wins each of the past two seasons while sailing 'Over' their season win total each of the past four seasons, the 2021 Bills season win total (11) is their highest projection since 1992 when they were expected to win 11.5 games, and fell short. It's what happens when you win a division title for the first time since 1995 while sweeping Bill Belichick's Patriots for the first time ever– not to mention having a quarterback who set Bills records for completions, passing yards, TD passes, total TDs, and a passer rating of 107.2. With it, Buffalo set a franchise record with 501 points and 60 touchdowns and swept the AFC East for the first time in Bills' history. Heck, the only thing Allen failed to do was become the first QB in team history to win 3 straight playoff games. If it all sounds like the Bills climbed the mountain, they did. Now with expectations through the roof, and higher than ever, it may be time to lower the girders. Just in case, remember, new backup QB Mitchell Trubisky is 29-21 as a starter, tossing for 10,609 yards with 64 touchdowns and 37 interceptions while completing 64% of his passes. He also rushed for 1,057 yards and eight touchdowns.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE:

Buffalo is 5-11 SU and 5-10-1 ATS all-time versus NFC South opponents, including 1-6 SU and 0-6-1 ATS when the Bills are coming off an ATS loss.
POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:

PLAY AGAINST: vs Indianapolis (11/21)



Miami
TEAM THEME: NATURAL BORN KILLER
Westgate SuperBook Season Win Total: 9

Opponents' Collective Season Win Total: 144.5
Brian Flores had a game plan last year, and he stuck with it. Despite being beseeched to bench prize QB Tua Tagovailoa in favor of Ryan Fitzpatrick (he of 9 different NFL teams), Flores knew where his future lies. Being a rookie coming off a major injury, without the luxury of having a spring camp, a slow-start Tagovailoa finished his rookie season with a 6-3 record in nine starts, with 11 touchdowns, 5 interceptions, and 87.1 passer rating, and an average of 200.5 yards passing in his nine starts. That was on par with the rookie seasons of Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Matt Ryan, and Kyler Murray. In fact, Miami played more rookies than any other team in 2020, including Tua and three starting offensive linemen, so natural development and the signing of free-agent receiver Will Fuller V should make that group better. Fuller was one of the few receivers in this class with elite speed and route-running ability. Miami's first-round pick, and former Alabama WR Jaylen Waddle, call Tagovailoa a natural-born leader. Through it all, Miami saw its season-win total climb more than any other team in the league from last year to this, from 6 to 9. Stay tuned.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:

The Dolphins were -10 in net turnovers, and last in the league in scoring margin (-11.8) in 2019, but 4th in net TO's (+0.6) and 10th in scoring margin (+4.1) last year.
POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:

PLAY ON: as a dog vs. Buffalo (9/19)



New England
TEAM THEME: A BOOB JOB
Westgate SuperBook Season Win Total: 9

Opponents' Collective Season Win Total: 148
New England broke the bank in a free-agent signing frenzy this offseason when management spent $160 million in guaranteed money to overhaul the look and feel of their roster. It was, for all intents and purposes, the first known case of major plastic surgery that Bill Belichick has undergone since taking over the reins in Foxborough this century. After ending a streak last year of 17 consecutive seasons with 10-plus victories, the Hoodie's ongoing bromance with Cam Newton figures to be short-lived, too. The Patriots finished 30th in the NFL in passing yards, averaging 180 per game in 2020, and 27th in points scored. Thus, the reason for the facelift. Perhaps the biggest addition, though, is that of Alabama quarterback Mac Jones – the steal of the draft. He's the first QB ever selected by Belichick in the first round of the NFL Draft. He's hoping the addition of OL Trent Brown (for the 3rd time) will help boost New England's standing as the worst team in the league in 1st Quarter scoring (2.4 PPG). The schedule maker didn't do the Pats any favors, though, as they will face 3 teams coming off their bye week this season, tops in the league.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE:

The Patriots are 8-1 SUATS all-time as a favorite of fewer than 7 points against NFC South opponents.
POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:

PLAY ON: at Buffalo (12/6) - *KEY as a dog



New York Jets
TEAM THEME: TAKING FLIGHT
Westgate SuperBook Season Win Total: 6.5

Opponents' Collective Season Win Total: 145.5

When New York sent QB Sam Darnold packing to Carolina, it was a move out of necessity. After all, Jets quarterbacks have combined for the fewest touchdown passes (190) and passing yards per game (199) in the NFL over the last decade. In the same span, New York's total QBR (42) ranks 31st in the league. The new promise for the future is gunslinger Zach Wilson, the youngest quarterback to ever start at BYU, and whose 33-3 TD/INT ratio topped the nation last season. In addition, his 73.5 completion percentage, 11.0 Yards Per Attempt, and 196.4 Pass Efficiency Rating were also No. 2 in the land in 2020. With co-first-round pick offensive tackle Alijah Vera-Tucker joining Mekhi Becton, the Jets "Bash Brothers" should be a welcome sight for the fledgling signal-caller. Looking back, perhaps the most puzzling accomplishment of the Jets was back-to-back season upsets over playoff-bound teams the Browns and the Rams (their first two wins of the season). Former 49ers DC Robert Saleh takes the reins from Adam Gase, who was a disaster in the making, going 9-23 in his two seasons with the Jets while averaging a mere 276.5 yards and 16 points per game.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE:

Jets offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur is head coach Robert Saleh's best friend and was the best man at Saleh's wedding.
POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:

PLAY ON: vs. Buffalo (11/14)



AFC NORTH
Baltimore
TEAM THEME: ACTION JACKSON
Westgate SuperBook Season Win Total: 11

Opponents' Collective Season Win Total: 149
You have to give the man his due. Lamar Jackson has become the first quarterback in NFL history to rush for 1,000 or more yards in consecutive seasons. In the process, the Ravens are the first team in NFL history to lead the league in point-differential two years in a row. Through it all, Jackson has won an NFL-best 81% of his games since taking over as Baltimore's starter midway through the 2018 season. And did we mention that the Ravens return 19 starters from a team that won 11 games last season? It's one reason the Black Birds' projected season-win total was set at 11 wins by the SuperBook in Las Vegas. Before knee-jerking and riding the Ravens to go 'over' that season-win total, you need to know that Baltimore will be taking on the 2nd-most difficult schedule based on the opponent's win percentage last season, including six of the Ravens' nine home games coming against teams that reached the playoffs. Furthermore, the Ravens have the toughest second half of any NFL team this season with the opponent's winning percentage (.635), featuring seven of their final nine games coming against 2020 playoff teams. And if you didn't know, Baltimore led the league in 1st Quarter Points Per Game last season.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE:

QB Lamar Jackson is 30-8 SU during the regular season in his NFL career, including 14-5 SU and 14-4-1 ATS away.
POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:

PLAY ON: at Pittsburgh (12/5)



Cincinnati
TEAM THEME: BURROWED IN
Westgate SuperBook Season Win Total: 6.5

Opponents' Collective Season Win Total: 152
When franchise QB Joe Burrow went down with a torn ACL in Week Eleven last year, it ended his rookie season in the NFL. However, the signs of great promise were there as he was on pace to break several NFL rookie passing records. In the process, Burrow showed emerging handicapping tendencies, such as 6-1 ATS when coming off a loss, and 3-0-1 ATS in home games. His recovery from the surgery is tantamount to any amount of success the Bengals may encounter this season. But equally important are the 8 players on this year's roster that are expected to play key roles, who also found themselves on the 2020 season-ending Injured Reserve, including five starters – headlined by Burrow's bodyguard, left tackle and 2019 first-round pick Jonah Williams. Given Cincinnati's 3-16-1 record in one-score games over the past three seasons, they will surely need to turn that number around if they are to emerge from the AFC North cellar, where they've resided the past three seasons. And, according to the USA TODAY Sports Weekly, the Bengals surrendered a division-worst 48 sacks and 191 pressures in 2020, while Burrow was pressured on 146 of his 453 drop backs.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE:

The Bengals are 1-12-1 in one-score games the past two seasons.
POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:

PLAY ON: at Baltimore (10/24)



Cleveland
TEAM THEME: TAKE A LOOK AT ME NOW
Westgate SuperBook Season Win Total: 10.5

Opponents' Collective Season Win Total: 142
Simply put, Cleveland knocked it out of the park this offseason with its free agency signings, while slaying it in the 2021 draft. The Athletic put it best when they said the Browns are hoping people around the league won't even recognize their defense this fall. After a flurry of free-agent moves on that side of the ball, Cleveland spent its first two picks in the draft on Northwestern corner Greg Newsome, and Notre Dame linebacker/safety hybrid Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah. It's possible that the Browns could have as many as eight different defensive starters in 2021, making their defense almost unrecognizable from last year's edition, including FA pass-rusher Jadeveon Clowney. As a result, and thanks to the intelligentsia of the Browns front office, Cleveland now has three of the past seven No. 1 overall draft picks on their roster, including defensive end Myles Garrett, and quarterback Baker Mayfield, who posted a 16-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio over the final 10 games of the season. Hence, Cleveland has a legitimate shot to reach their first-ever Super Bowl this season. As we said last year, we're all dealing with a challenge of some kind. The Cleveland Browns just hide it better than most. A blue-collar Dawg Pound fan base won't let them see it any other way.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE:

The Browns are 1-12 SU and 2-11 versus NFC North opponents, including 0-7 SUATS the last seven.
POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:

PLAY ON: at Baltimore (11/28)



Pittsburgh
TEAM THEME: THE CLOCK STRIKES TWELVE
Westgate SuperBook Season Win Total: 8.5

Opponents' Collective Season Win Total: 154
Mike Tomlin has not had a losing season in his 14 years with the Steelers, tying Marty Schottenheimer for the longest such streak to start an NFL head-coaching career. Last year they were looking like a Super Bowl team, bolting out of the gate with 11 straight wins. But Pittsburgh wobbled home on one leg, closing out the season on a 1-5 run, including a playoff loss to the Browns. Now, Pittsburgh must regroup behind 39-year-old QB Ben Roethlisberger, who looks like he's playing on one leg himself these days, behind a suspect offensive line. If that sounds like a formula for a disaster in the making, it's because it is. Making matters worse, the Steelers will take on the toughest strength of schedule in 2021, based on their opponents' winning percentage from 2020 (.574). FYI: The team with the toughest strength of schedule has missed the playoffs in each of the last four seasons (in 2020, it was the Patriots, who finished 7-9; in 2019, it was the Raiders, who finished 7-9; in 2018, it was the Packers, who finished 6-9-1; and in 2017, it was the Broncos, who finished 5-11). Uh oh.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE:

The Steelers' defense ranked No. 1 in sacking the QB (56) last season. The offense allowed the fewest sacks (14) last season.
POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:

PLAY ON: at Cleveland (10/31)



AFC SOUTH
Houston
TEAM THEME: OUT OF TOUCH
Westgate SuperBook Season Win Total: 4

Opponents' Collective Season Win Total: 153
Yet another NFL team with a quarterback situation mired in muck. What Texans QB Deshaun Watson achieved last season with an injury-ravaged receiving corps, inconsistent running game, dysfunctional defense, and unreliable offensive line, is nothing short of astounding. His 112.4 Passer Rating was bested only by league MVP Aaron Rodgers. So how did the Texans win fewer games in 2020 with Watson playing the best football of his NFL career? We may never know the answer to that question if Watson is held accountable for his massage parlor hijinks where he has been accused of rubbing 22 women the wrong way in a sexual harassment lawsuit. We expect Tyrod Taylor to start at quarterback in September, with Ryan Finley and Davis Mills likely getting snaps this season as well, with the Texans plotting out their PDW (post-Deshaun Watson) plans. Meanwhile, Houston allowed the second-highest opposing passer rating in 2020 and produced the fewest turnovers (9). Lovie Smith takes over as the new DC, and will be changing the defensive scheme from the 3-4 they've run since 2011 to a 4-3. It's sad to see this team, in the playoffs 4 of the previous six seasons, fall to this level. What a mess.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE:

First-year head coach David Culley has been an NFL assistant coach for 27 seasons. His last 8 teams have gone 83-45 during the regular season.
POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:

PLAY ON: at Tennessee (11/21)



Indianapolis
TEAM THEME: FROM WENTZ HE CAME
Westgate SuperBook Season Win Total: 10

Opponents' Collective Season Win Total: 143.5
Let's tell it like it is. The Colts' first five games will all be against teams that had at least 10 wins in 2020 (Seattle, Los Angeles Rams, Tennessee, Miami, Baltimore). Philip Rivers' resurrection in 2020 was a success, as his 96.7 QB Rating in 2021 surpassed all of his previous eight seasons (save 2018). So now the question begs: Which Carson Wentz will the Colts be getting this season? If it's the same as the 2020 version, Indy is in a world of hurt. But the fact that Wentz and Reich are reuniting from an MVP-caliber season together in Philadelphia in 2017 makes this the most interesting reunion in the league this year. For one thing, Wentz will have a front wall in Indy that was lacking in Philly last season (Eagles allowed league-high 65 sacks, 50 of which Wentz suffered), as the Colts coughed up just 21 takedowns, bested only by Pittsburgh's 14. In addition, the Colts will tackle the 5th easiest slate of opponents this season as measured by our true Strength of Schedule (see page 22). In closing, remember: Indy has finished the season with exactly 8 ATS losses each year since 2015. Is this the season the Colts finally kick the 8-habit?
STAT YOU WILL LIKE:

Colts head coach Frank Reich is 8-1 SU and 8-0-1 ATS in his NFL career when coming off a double-digit spread loss.
POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:

PLAY AGAINST: as a favorite vs. Seattle (9/12)



Jacksonville
TEAM THEME: URBAN RENEWAL
Westgate SuperBook Season Win Total: 6.5

Opponents' Collective Season Win Total: 143.5
The Jaguars have loaded up in the NFL Draft the past three years, landing 28 players in all. Safe to say none of which were more meaningful than Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence, the first selection in this year's draft. Lawrence was 34-2 as a starter at Clemson, while also closing out his prep career with a 52-2 record, including a 41-game winning streak (his only two losses came in the playoffs). He'll team with the FBS' 4th all-time win percentage leader in head coach Urban Meyer. So what does having Urban Meyer and Trevor Lawrence together on the same team do for the perception of this team? For openers, the season-win total for Jacksonville shot up two games this year (to 6.5 for 4.5 last season). Don't look for success to come overnight, though – the Jags have the toughest first eight games of the season, based on their opponents' 2020 win percentage (.586). However, their final nine games are the easiest in the NFL (featuring a combined opponent winning percentage of .382). Lawrence will face Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa in rematches of the College Football Playoff National Championships from 2018 and 2019. That should be must-watch TV.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE:

The Jaguars have ranked dead last in Penalty Yards Per Game each of the past three seasons.
POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:

PLAY ON: at Cincinnati (9/30)



Tennessee
TEAM THEME: SMASHVILLE
Westgate SuperBook Season Win Total: 9

Opponents' Collective Season Win Total: 146
The Titans had a potent offense in the league last season, but their offseason trade with the Falcons for wide receiver Julio Jones has the potential to take them to a different level – provided the defense chips in. Jones brings career totals of 848 receptions for 12,896 yards and 60 touchdowns to the Titans after a decade in the league. Jones also fills the hole left by the departure of WR Corey Davis, making Jones and A.J. Brown as strong a one-two tandem as there is in the league today. According to ESPN Stats & Info, Jones averages 95.5 receiving yards per game – the highest in NFL history. Meanwhile, Brown ranked second in the league in most yards per reception since 2019 at 17.43. To say the least, that's a powerful 1-2 punch. Launching them the ball is QB Ryan Tannehill, whose 105.3 Passer Rating was topped by only Aaron Rodgers and Deshaun Watson last season. Hopefully, the re-hire of veteran coach Jim Schwartz as the Titans' new senior defensive assistant will pay dividends. In Schwartz's 10 years as an assistant with Tennessee (1999-2008), the Titans earned six playoff berths, played in two AFC Championship Games, and appeared in Super Bowl XXXIV.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE:

The Titans have allowed more yards than they've gained in each and every one of their 3 seasons under head coach Mike Vrabel.
POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Jacksonville (12/12)



AFC WEST
Denver
TEAM THEME: LOCK IT UP
Westgate SuperBook Season Win Total: 9

Opponents' Collective Season Win Total: 144.5
When plotting a course for the 2021 NFL season, one of the best preparation techniques smart handicappers do is to gauge the strength of each opponent's quarterback. When you find the likes of Patrick Mahomes (twice), Lamar Jackson, Dak Prescott, Baker Mayfield, Ben Roethlisberger, and Justin Herbert to name a few, you know you're in deep. It can be an especially difficult task for teams that have lost their way, suffering losing seasons each of the last 4 years. In fact, the last time the Broncos endured five losing years in a row was in 1968-1972. With it, head coach Vic Fangio sits on a playoff–or-else hot seat. The good news is VSiN's Steve Makinen points out that 16 of seventeen teams since 2010 who had a turnover differential of -1.0 per game or worse and failed to make the playoffs improved the next season, and did so by an average win improvement of 4.6. That's a promising number for Denver this season who, for the first time in 29 years, will not be featured in a Monday Night game. That, and Drew Lock's 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS career mark in the NFL against foes coming off a loss.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE:

The Broncos are 18-3 SU and 17-3-1 ATS in their last 21 home openers versus non-division foes.
POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:

PLAY ON: as a dog vs. Las Vegas (10/17)



Kansas City
TEAM THEME: TOO CLOSE FOR COMFORT
Westgate SuperBook Season Win Total: 12.5

Opponents' Collective Season Win Total: 149
It's highly unusual for a team to appear in consecutive Super Bowls and not have a major exodus of talent bolting for free agency, but that's the position Kansas City was in entering last season with 20 of its 22 starters from its Super Bowl championship team in 2020. Yes, they managed to scratch and crawl their way back to another Super Bowl last season but not before torching their backers. It's rare to find a 16-win team in the NFL who manages to beat the spread in only 7 contests, but close-call games were the Chiefs' Waterloo in 2020. And don't whisper one-score games to Andy Reid. If you do he'll likely lose his lunch, given his 60-96-5 ATS career record in such contests, including 3-30-2 ATS when favored in division games. (See more on Reid in this role below). Priority One in the offseason was shoring up the aforementioned offensive line and they did, bringing in OT Orlando Brown from Baltimore along with OGs Joe Thuney and Kyle Long. They capped it off drafting pro-ready C Creed Humphrey in the 2nd round of this year's draft. Remember, while the Chiefs are 43-10 with Patrick Mahomes as their starter, they will dress up as a dreaded 'Super Bowl Loser' this season. Caveat emptor.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE:

The Chiefs were 9-0 SU in one-score games last season, but 0-8-1 ATS in those same games.
POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Buffalo (10/10)



Las Vegas Raiders
TEAM THEME: A SHITSHOW IN THE MAKING
Westgate SuperBook Season Win Total: 7.5

Opponents' Collective Season Win Total: 156.5
Now that they have successfully migrated from Oakland to Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, the Raiders should be comfortable in their own skin this season. The problem is another series of head-scratching moves in the offseason continues to confound this team. The loss of DC Paul Guenther was expected after Las Vegas finished with the third-worst scoring defense in 2020. Gus Bradley replaces him with one goal in mind – to pair up an average stop-unit with Vegas' once explosive offense. After WR Nelson Agholor enjoyed a career year while leading the team in receiving yards and TDs, he signed promptly with the Patriots. Signing Buffalo WR John Brown to fill his shoes may pan out given the fact that Brown missed seven games with a foot injury last year, yet still tallied 1,000 passing yards. Meanwhile, last year's top pick, WR Henry Ruggs, is going to have to step up in 2021. The Raiders also dismantled one of the league's most impressive offensive lines when they traded offensive tackle Trent Brown, star center Rodney Hudson, and Vegas native guard Gabe Jackson for mid-to-late round picks. Then they overpaid free agent RB Kenyon Drake (2 years, $11M guaranteed) to be a backup. A shitshow, indeed.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE:

Raiders head coach Jon Gruden is 5-20 SUATS in his career in December when coming off a win, including 1-13 ATS in non-division games.
POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:

PLAY AGAINST at Cleveland (12/18)



Los Angeles Chargers
TEAM THEME: LYNN-FREE
Westgate SuperBook Season Win Total: 9.5

Opponents' Collective Season Win Total: 148
Sad but true: The Chargers have lost 15 one-score games the past two seasons. Sure, they managed to win 7 of them, but that's an 8-game net disadvantage. Safe to say, those 8 wins would likely have saved Anthony Lynn's job. Instead, he's now a defensive coordinator with the Lions, where winters are nowhere near those in Southern California. New head coach Brandon Staley steps in after masterminding the Rams top-ranked defense last season. New OC Joe Lombardi spent the last five seasons as the quarterbacks' coach in New Orleans, where he has coached four players to be selected to 12 Pro Bowls. The DC is Renaldo Hill, who was a defensive backs coach at Denver and Miami the past three seasons. The keys to the car, though, belong to NFL Rookie of the Year QB Justin Herbert, who threw for 4,336 yards and 31 TDs in his league debut last year. He flourished last year when many of his top playmakers and offensive linemen were in and out of the lineup with COVID-related issues. If this team can get past a rash of nagging injuries that has handcuffed them the past two seasons, they can be a player in the wide-open AFC West.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE:

The Chargers are 15-4-2 ATS as road dogs in division games, including 9-1 ATS versus opponents not coming off a double-digit win.
POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:

PLAY ON: at Kansas City (9/26)