AFC Championship Poll

[wayne1218]

Who you got?

[popcorn]

Cincinnati

[jaws7]

chiefs

[Dale City]

Chiefs

[Funtus]

Bengals

[soonermagic]

I’ve got to stick with Cincinnati. I have them at 12/1 to win SB. Could hedge but right now not going to do it…

[dave nz]

Pass/no opinion.

[ONE51RUM]

Philly, Cinn and the injury didnt matter i kind of wish he wasn't hurt, think it would have been a 4.5-5 number to open

[wayne1218]

Cincinnati is 13-5 ATS this season (unders: 10-7-1). Kansas City is 7-11 ATS this season (unders: 10-8). Kansas City's 11 ATS losses are the most by any team entering the conference championship game in the Super Bowl era, and it is the worst ATS percentage by any team entering the game since 1997 (Green Bay). None of the previous five teams to have cover percentages below .400 entering the conference championship game have gone on to win the Super Bowl and only 1997 Green Bay even reached the game.

Patrick Mahomes is a home underdog on Sunday (as of now) for just the second time in his career (lost by 4 as 2.5-point home underdog vs Buffalo in Week 6). Entering this week, he had been favored in 47 of his 48 home starts, the second-highest percentage of any QB with at least 25 starts in the Super Bowl era (including playoffs). Only Roger Staubach (66 of 67 starts) has a higher percentage of home starts favored in (minimum 25 starts).

Kansas City has been favored in 14 straight playoff games entering this week, the longest streak by any team in the Super Bowl era. Patrick Mahomes has never been a playoff underdog. He is the first quarterback in the Super Bowl era to be favored in each of his first 12 playoff starts entering this week. His 12-game playoff favorite streak is tied for the second-longest streak in the Super Bowl era.

No team has been a home underdog in a Conference Championship game since 2017 Philadelphia. The previous two home underdogs in conference championships won the game outright (Philadelphia beat Minnesota as a 3-point underdog in 2017, Denver beat New England as a 3-point underdog in 2015).

Kansas City was a 2.5-point road favorite in Cincinnati in Week 13 when the two teams met during the regular season. Now, Kansas City is a home underdog in their playoff meeting. It is the second time in the Super Bowl era that a team has been a road favorite against an opponent in the regular season and then a home underdog for a playoff rematch. The other time was in the Wild Card Round this season, when Dallas was a road favorite in Tampa Bay in the playoffs after being a home underdog in Week 1.

Cincinnati is 21-5 ATS in its past 26 games including playoffs. Cincinnati is 13-5 ATS this season (second-best) and 27-12 ATS since the start of last season.

Cincinnati is 19-1 ATS in its past 20 games when not laying at least seven points with seven straight covers (Joe Burrow: 18-1 ATS in span).

Cincinnati has covered five straight road games (8-2 ATS on road this season).

Joe Burrow is 5-1 ATS in his playoff career (4-0 ATS as underdog, 1-1 ATS as favorite).

Joe Burrow is 3-0 outright against Patrick Mahomes, all as an underdog.

Kansas City is 2-11 ATS in conference games this season.

Kansas City is 0-4 ATS with more than six days of rest this season.

[wayne1218]

Moody's pick: Bengals 27, Chiefs 20
Walder's pick: Chiefs 31, Bengals 30
FPI prediction: KC, 65.5% (by an average of 4.6 points)