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  #76  
Old 09-21-2014, 11:20 PM
showell showell is offline
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  #77  
Old 09-22-2014, 08:38 AM
big slick big slick is offline
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top 5 picks went 4-1
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  #78  
Old 09-22-2014, 09:01 AM
nickw nickw is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by post1958 View Post
Detail Hilton Leader and Loser analysis posted as post 66 in today's service play thread.

Sorry about the formatting - it doesn't translate well from excel.

My plays

2 units
StL +1.5 Leaders 14-1 on StL; Losers 15-1 on Dal
NYJ -2.5 Leaders 10-3 on NYJ; Losers 13-1 on Chi note that Hilton line was -3 so the drop to 2.5 is very favorable

These are the games that we saw separate the leaders from the losers last year. Dallas and Chicago looked great last week. Now they go on the road to face weak/mediocre teams.

1 unit
Pit +3.5 Leaders 13-0 on Pit; Losers 13-0 on Car. very strong leader/loser correlation as 2 unit but Pit on road
NYG -1 Leaders 15-1 on NYG; Losers 8-4 on Hou note Hilton line was NYG +2. I made this one 1 unit due to the line change and less strong correlation for the losers on Hou.

Others I considered and passed Min, Det

Other key line moves from Hilton - Cin -7, Jac +7.5

These are my first picks for 2014.

2013 record
reg season: 31-21 +9.5 units
Super Bowl +10.5 units
This is very helpful info. I hope you post it here every week!!
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  #79  
Old 09-22-2014, 09:02 AM
nickw nickw is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr. Jack View Post
Last years winner and 9-1 Last week

DAVIDFROHARDT LANE1 - ATL SD MIN JAX CHI
DAVIDFROHARDT LANE2 - NYG CIN OAK PIT CHI
This guy has been on fire and has Bear in both entries tonight. That's all I need. I am on the Bears.
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  #80  
Old 09-22-2014, 10:01 AM
post1958 post1958 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nickw View Post
This is very helpful info. I hope you post it here every week!!
I did it every week last year and plan to this year. I see the detail info post got moved from the service play to the free play thread. Next week I'll post the details in Beat the Man and note it here when posted.
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  #81  
Old 09-22-2014, 10:04 AM
nickw nickw is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by post1958 View Post
I did it every week last year and plan to this year. I see the detail info post got moved from the service play to the free play thread. Next week I'll post the details in Beat the Man and note it here when posted.
If you can post it in this thread that would be great. Ima not a service guy and don't usually go in those sections!!
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  #82  
Old 09-22-2014, 03:22 PM
Jahred Jahred is offline
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the old 21 point lead at home gets me again, thanks Rams!

and lmfao the browns got me also, what a joke of a week for my Hilton picks
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  #83  
Old 09-22-2014, 03:54 PM
duckster duckster is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nickw View Post
This guy has been on fire and has Bear in both entries tonight. That's all I need. I am on the Bears.
so is frohardt right with da bears or the winners/losers that have the jets
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  #84  
Old 09-22-2014, 06:48 PM
Ricky Tan Ricky Tan is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tonyvegas View Post
Submitted picks for week 3:

10-0 ( 4 contestants) ( Week #2 Standings)
PIT 3 - 0
DET 2 - 0
WAS 2 - 1
1 -0 : Cle,Ind,KC,Min,NYG,NYJ,Oak,Sea,Stl and Tenn.

(10-0 + 9-1) (4/14=18 contestants)9Week #2 Standings)
PIT 8 - 0
STL 8 - 1
MIN 6 - 1
NYG 5 - 1
NYJ 5 - 2
DET 5 - 2
JAX 5 - 3
FYI: SEA 4 - 0, KC 4 - 0 and BUF 4 - 1

BOL
Should read
10-0 ( 4 contestants) ( Week #2 Standings)
PIT 3 - 0
GB 2 - 1 (not DET)
WAS 2 - 1
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  #85  
Old 09-23-2014, 12:13 PM
duckster duckster is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nickw View Post
This guy has been on fire and has Bear in both entries tonight. That's all I need. I am on the Bears.
not bad, makes his picks using math algos based on "who knows what" data, math algo junkie
IF my math is right, 25-5 after 3 weeks... knew i should have took math & computers more serious!

Last edited by duckster; 09-23-2014 at 12:22 PM.
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  #86  
Old 09-23-2014, 03:43 PM
Hambone Hambone is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jahred View Post
the old 21 point lead at home gets me again, thanks Rams!

and lmfao the browns got me also, what a joke of a week for my Hilton picks
Rams got me, too. Terrible week here as well.
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  #87  
Old 09-24-2014, 10:36 AM
big slick big slick is offline
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yup rams and Minnesota not being able to score in the last quarter did me in
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  #88  
Old 09-26-2014, 05:26 PM
Hambone Hambone is offline
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Haven't seen this week's contest lines on here yet:


Pro Football Week #4


PRO FOOTBALL - THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 25, 2014
1 REDSKINS* CBS 5:25 PM 2 GIANTS +3 1/2

PRO FOOTBALL - SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 28, 2014
3 DOLPHINS CBS 10:00 AM 4 RAIDERS @Lon,Eng +4
5 PACKERS 10:00 AM 6 BEARS* +1 1/2
7 TEXANS* 10:00 AM 8 BILLS +3
9 COLTS* 10:00 AM 10 TITANS +7 1/2
11 RAVENS* 10:00 AM 12 PANTHERS +3 1/2
13 LIONS 10:00 AM 14 JETS* +1 1/2
15 STEELERS* 10:00 AM 16 BUCCANEERS +7 1/2
17 CHARGERS* 1:05 PM 18 JAGUARS +12 1/2
19 49ERS* 1:25 PM 20 EAGLES +5 1/2
21 FALCONS 1:25 PM 22 VIKINGS* +3
23 SAINTS NBC 5:30 PM 24 COWBOYS* +3
PRO FOOTBALL - MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 29, 2014
25 PATRIOTS ESPN 5:30 PM 26 CHIEFS* +3 1/2

*Denotes home team. All times are PST.
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  #89  
Old 09-27-2014, 08:23 PM
otter otter is offline
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Week 4 SuperContest NFL Picks By Most Contestants

(5-1* Last Week, 10-6* ATS YTD)

1 Green Bay -1.5 By 530
2 Kansas City +3.5 By 485
3 Atlanta -3 By 440
4 Philadelphia +5.5 By 359
5 New Orleans -3 By 355


Week 4 SuperContest NFL Picks By Widest Margin

(5-0 Last Week , 9-6 ATS YTD)

1 Kansas City +3.5 By 340
2 Green Bay -1.5 By 331
3 Atlanta -3 By 141
4 Indianapolis -7.5 By 107
4 Tampa Bay +7.5 By 107
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  #90  
Old 09-27-2014, 08:32 PM
otter otter is offline
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Consensus results for week 3
(5-1* Last Week, 10-6* ATS YTD)
due to ****2 picks tied for No. 5 in Week 3****

....so as to clarify confusion re that.
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  #91  
Old 09-27-2014, 08:59 PM
nickw nickw is offline
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Davidfrohardt lane1 nyg hou ten phi min
davidfrohardt lane2 oak nyj tb jax kc
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  #92  
Old 09-27-2014, 09:42 PM
rickymo rickymo is offline
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Thumbs up

Quote:
Originally Posted by nickw View Post
Davidfrohardt lane1 nyg hou ten phi min
davidfrohardt lane2 oak nyj tb jax kc
where'd ya get the picks for the Hilton contest??
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  #93  
Old 09-27-2014, 10:45 PM
inkognito inkognito is offline
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LVH Top 15 YTD & WK 4 Picks

Name W L P W L P
HENRY GONDORFF . 4 1 4 14 1 14 BUF JAX SF MIN KC
ALCATRAZ HOLDINGS 4 1 4 14 1 14 BUF TB SD PHI ATL
SKINNER'S WINNERS 5 0 5 13 2 13 BUF CAR PHI MIN KC
OTMSPORTS1.COM . 5 0 5 13 2 13 MIA GB IND NYJ PHI
GREEK 0531 . 5 0 5 13 2 13 MIA BUF CAR TB ATL
IMAWHALE SPORTS 5 0 5 13 2 13 OAK CAR NYJ TB KC
THE BDC 1 . 5 0 5 13 2 13 TEN CAR NYJ TB MIN
JAMES JONES . 5 0 5 13 2 13 GB HOU NYJ SF KC
BRIEFCASE 2 . 4 1 4 13 2 13 GB BUF TB ATL KC
DEGENCHAT . 4 1 4 13 2 13 GB CAR TB JAX MIN
GALT'S GULCH . 4 1 4 13 2 13 CAR DET TB ATL KC
CLEAR CAPITAL . 5 0 5 13 2 13 OAK BUF CAR TB KC
STAG CAPITAL . 5 0 5 13 2 13 OAK CAR TB PHI KC
VINNY Z . 2 3 2 12 3 12 GB TEN CAR TB KC
DAVIDFRHRDT LANE2 5 0 5 12 3 12 OAK NYJ TB JAX KC
DAVIDFRHRDT LANE1 3 2 3 12 3 12 NYG HOU TEN PHI MIN
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  #94  
Old 09-27-2014, 10:56 PM
Oldhead Oldhead is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nickw View Post
Davidfrohardt lane1 nyg hou ten phi min
davidfrohardt lane2 oak nyj tb jax kc
Wow, that's a lot of Dogs. If this guy does well with that many Dogs this week he must be damn good (IMO).
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  #95  
Old 09-28-2014, 07:55 AM
post1958 post1958 is offline
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Hilton Leaders and Losers Wk 4

Leaders Losers
Hilton Line > or = 80% < 27%

NYG 0 3
Wash -3.5 2 11

Mia 4 14
Oak +4 7 5

GB 18 19
Chi +1.5 0 6

Buf 10 8
Hou -3 4 9

Ten 6 6
Ind -7.5 2 14

Car 19 5
Bal -3.5 0 11

Det 3 11
NYJ +1.5 12 13

TB 28 5
Pit -7.5 1 17

Jac 9 6
SD -12.5 1 7

Phi 8 18
SF -5.5 10 6

Atl 4 20
Min +3 17 7

NO 6 15
Dal +3 3 9

NE 0 8
KC +3.5 26 12

33 leaders 12-3 or better. 53 losers 4-11 or worse.

Key line moves I see today vs Hilton line:

Min went from +3 in Hilton to +3.5
KC went from +3.5 to +3.

I'll post my picks later this AM in Beat the Man. Right now I'm looking at:

GB - Leaders 18-0; Losers 19-6.
Car - Leaders 19-0; Losers 11-5 on Balt
Tampa - Leaders 28-1; Losers 17-5 on Pit
Min - Leaders 17-4; Losers 20-7 on Atl - And they didn't have the hook
KC - Leaders 26-0; Losers 12-8 also on KC - I'll wait and hope for 3.5

There's one more guy with 2 entries in the Leaders at 14-1 and 13-2.

Imawhalesports - Oak, Car, NYJ, TB, KC
Imawhalesports2 - Oak, Car, Phi, Min, KC

Good luck today.
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  #96  
Old 09-28-2014, 02:49 PM
duckster duckster is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by post1958 View Post

There's one more guy with 2 entries in the Leaders at 14-1 and 13-2.

Imawhalesports - Oak, Car, NYJ, TB, KC
Imawhalesports2 - Oak, Car, Phi, Min, KC

.
looking so far like it was not the week to tail this guy or Frohardt....

found it odd Fro to tweet this day or so ago, and now his picks today

"Probably shouldnt bet my picks, on top of 53% estimate, you might get different number or I might have picked just to fill out ticket"
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  #97  
Old 09-28-2014, 05:15 PM
HoosierDaddy23 HoosierDaddy23 is offline
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Good studf
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..It costs a lot to win and even more to lose....
MLB 4-15 -16.1*
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  #98  
Old 09-28-2014, 05:26 PM
duckster duckster is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by otter View Post
Week 4 SuperContest NFL Picks By Most Contestants

(5-1* Last Week, 10-6* ATS YTD)

1 Green Bay -1.5 By 530
2 Kansas City +3.5 By 485
3 Atlanta -3 By 440
4 Philadelphia +5.5 By 359
5 New Orleans -3 By 355


Week 4 SuperContest NFL Picks By Widest Margin

(5-0 Last Week , 9-6 ATS YTD)

1 Kansas City +3.5 By 340
2 Green Bay -1.5 By 331
3 Atlanta -3 By 141
4 Indianapolis -7.5 By 107
4 Tampa Bay +7.5 By 107
what were the bottom 5 least picks? thanks
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  #99  
Old 09-29-2014, 03:55 PM
otter otter is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by duckster View Post
what were the bottom 5 least picks? thanks
22 WAS -3.5 183 13.1%
23 PIT -7.5 175 12.5%
24 SD -12.5 174 12.5%
25 NE -3.5 145 10.4%
26 NYG +3.5 134 9.6%




Top tier players with pick for MNF are 12-0 on KC+3.5.
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  #100  
Old 09-29-2014, 04:33 PM
otter otter is offline
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Alcatraz holdings 17 3 0
otmsports1.com . 17 3 0
bud bundy . 16 3 0 KC
davidfrohardt lane1 16 4 0
degenchat . 16 4 0
toofdoc . 16 4 0
briefcase 2 . 15 4 0 KC
dmill . 15 4 0 KC
ezwinnr . 15 4 0 KC
galt's gulch . 15 4 0 KC
henry gondorff . 15 4 0 KC
james jones . 15 4 0 KC
joe-joe . 15 4 0 KC
skinner's winners 15 4 0 KC
stag capital . 15 4 0 KC
steak sauce . 15 4 0 KC
the core 4 . 15 4 0 KC
700k . 15 5 0
boscoe2 . 15 5 0
dj12 . 15 5 0
greek 0531 . 15 5 0
helix syndicate 15 5 0
hope . 15 5 0
old time hockey 15 5 0
pats pixx . 15 5 0
phildeez . 15 5 0
rbutler218 . 15 5 0
the bdc 1 . 15 5 0
the count . 15 5 0
tooth fairies . 15 5 0
vegasblackstar . 15 5 0
welp we tried . 15 5 0


Of the 11 entrants at 15-4-0 trying to get to 16-4-0 all eleven are on KC+3.5.

bud bundy . 16 3 0 KC will join a tie for the lead with Alcatraz holdings 17 3 0 and otmsports1.com 17 3 0 if KC covers.

While a KC+3.5 cover would result in a massive clusterfvck with 14 entrants at 16-4-0 this is a necessary toll because (and most importantly in all this, of course) I need a KC cover for my entry in the NFL Buy-In contest here on the forum so the Chiefs need to either:

a.) win the game

or

b.) lose by 3 or fewer points.

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