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  #1501  
Old 11-12-2019, 01:15 AM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Sean Payton 18-4 Under on the road, November/December in his career in division


12-9 @Car (U50.5)
28-14 @TB (U56)
24-31 @TB (O49)
17-20 @Atl (U49.5)
11-16 @TB (U52)
24-17 @TB (U52)
23-20 @TB (U47)
13-17 @Car (U44.5)
17-14 @Atl (U50)
26-23 @Atl (U50.5)
34-14 @Atl (O44)
20-23 @Car (U52.5)
17-13 @Atl (U52.5)
13-23 @Atl (U54)
26-23 @ATL (U49.5)
34-3 @Car (U40)
38-7 @TB (U51)
20-23 @TB (U44)
20-34 @Atl (O51)
31-6 @Car (U41.5)
31-13 @Atl (U48)
31-14 @TB (O37.5)


Saints at Buccaneers
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  #1502  
Old 11-12-2019, 01:18 AM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Cowboys last 15 regular season Road Games, 1Q Under is 15-0 dating back to 12/10/2017:


3-3 @ NYG
0-7 @ NYJ
3-0 @ NO
0-0 @ Was
0-0 @ NYG
0-7 @ Ind
3-0 @ Atl
3-0 @ Phi
0-7 @ Was
6-0 @ Hou
0-0 @ Sea
0-0 @ Car
0-0 @ Phi
3-0 @ Oak
3-0 @ NYG


Cowboys at Lions
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  #1503  
Old 11-12-2019, 01:24 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Before week 13 when New England is off a SU loss they are 34-11-2 ATS
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  #1504  
Old 11-12-2019, 06:46 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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BetOnline

Early Week 11 public action:

79% Pit +3
78% NO -5.5
56% Car -5.5
54% Den +10.5
76% NYJ +1.5
54% Mia +5.5
66% Balt -4.5
83% Az +11.5
87% NE -3.5
67% Oak -10.5
63% Chi +6.5
82% KC -4
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  #1505  
Old 11-13-2019, 11:44 AM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Patriots are 47-9 SU off a loss since 2003 ... 40-16 ATS

18-4 SU and 16-6 ATS in this same spot since 2013
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  #1506  
Old 11-13-2019, 11:50 AM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Market update

5 Week 11 games that are receiving early sharp action


New Orleans Saints (7-2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-6)

This line opened with New Orleans listed as a 4.5-point road favorite. Three-out-of-four bets are backing the Saints thinking New Orleans is bound to bounce back after a bad loss with a big win and cover. This heavy betting pushed the line up to 5.5 or even 6. That's when you saw sharp buyback on the Bucs at an inflated price, causing the line to settle back down to 5.5. Divisional dogs are 25-17 (60%) this season).

The total has dipped from 51.5 to 50.5. The forecast calls for 10 MPH winds. Divisional unders are 25-18 (58%) this season. Divisional unders that fall at least 1-point are 56% since 2003.



Atlanta Falcons (2-7) at Carolina Panthers (5-4)

This NFC South showdown opened with Carolina listed as a 6.5-point home favorite. Two-thirds of bets are laying the points with the Panthers but sharps have gotten down on the Falcons at +6.5, causing this line to drop down to 5.5. The Falcons fit all the top "dog" edges this season: road dogs (62% ATS), divisional dogs (60% ATS), road divisional dogs (70% ATS) and short road dogs +6 or less (61% ATS).

The total hasn't budged off of 50.5. The under is 6-3 in Falcons games but the over is 6-3 in Panthers games. Divisional unders are 25-18 (58%) this season).



Houston Texans (6-3) at Baltimore Ravens (7-2)

This line opened with Baltimore listed as a 4.5-point home favorite. The public is all in on Jackson and the Ravens, with three-out-of-four bets laying the points. However, we've seen this line refuse to budge or even dip to 4 at some books, signaling smart money buying low on Watson and the Texans. Road dogs +6 or less have gone 39-25 ATS (61%) this season.

The public expects a shootout and is hammering the over yet the total has remained frozen at 50 or even fallen slightly to 49.5.



Buffalo Bills (6-3) at Miami Dolphins (2-7)

This AFC East showdown opened with the Bills listed as 6.5-point road favorites. The public is all over Buffalo (two-thirds of bets), yet this line has fallen to 5.5, signaling sharp reverse line movement on the Dolphins at home. Divisional dogs are 25-17 ATS (60%) this season).

The total has ticked up from 39 to 40.



New England Patriots (8-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (5-4)

This non-conference showdown opened with the Patriots listed as 3-point road favorites. More than three-out-of-four bets are pounding the Pats. This lopsided action forced books to move the line up to 3.5. That's when you saw some sharp buyback on the Eagles, forcing the line to settle at 3.5. Belichick and Brady are an incredible 147-91 ATS (62%) together since 2003. Road favorites off a bye are 61-28 ATS (69%) since 2003.

The total has ticked down from 45.5 to 44.5. The forecast calls for 9 mph winds. The under is 6-3 in Pats games but the over is 5-4 in Eagles games.
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  #1507  
Old 11-13-2019, 01:35 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Thursday Night

Steelers:

17-3 SU in their last 20 night games

26-3-1 SU in their last 30 games vs Cleveland

8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 as a dog


Pitt currently +2˝ ... +135
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  #1508  
Old 11-13-2019, 11:04 PM
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Thursday

Steelers (1H) Under on the Road (3-0)

0-20 @ NE (U) Roethlisberger
6-3 @ SF (U) Rudolph
21-0 @ LAC (U) Rudolph

Browns (1H) Under at Home (3-1)

6-12 vs Ten (U)
6-3 vs LAR (U)
20-18 vs Sea (O)
9-7 vs Buf (U)
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  #1509  
Old 11-14-2019, 08:25 AM
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Market update


8:20 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Steelers (5-4) at Cleveland Browns (3-6)

The public sees a line that looks way too good to be true and two-thirds of bets are grabbing the points with the Steelers. However, despite this heavy support, the line has either stayed the same or moved to Browns -3. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Browns. This betting breakdown and line movement looks a lot like last week's game when the public was all over the Bills, but sharps faded the trendy dog and backed the Browns. Home favorites on Thursday Night Football are 71-48 ATS (59.7%) since 2003 according to Bet Labs Sports.

Sharps have sided with the Browns, but if you're wary of laying the points, the Steelers fit multiple dog spots that have been highly profitable this season. Pittsburgh is a road dog (57-35 ATS, 62% this year), a short road dog +6 or less (39-25 ATS, 61%), a divisional dog (25-17 ATS, 60%) and a road divisional dog (16-7 ATS, 70%).

A slight majority of bets are taking the over, pushing the total from 40 to 41. The forecasts calls for 10-12 mph winds at the Dawg Pound. Windy unders 10 mph or more are 450-360 (55.6%) since 2003. Divisional unders are 25-18 (58%) this season. Primetime unders are 19-12 (61%) this season.
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  #1510  
Old 11-14-2019, 08:38 AM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Sports Interaction

74% of the betting action like the Steelers (+2.5) over the Browns
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  #1511  
Old 11-14-2019, 09:27 AM
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Primetime overs are on a 6-0 run
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  #1512  
Old 11-14-2019, 11:24 AM
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NFL first year Head Coaches on a short week are:

13-23-1 ATS since 2012 ... at Home they are 6-13-1 ATS

Freddie Soup Kitchens
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  #1513  
Old 11-14-2019, 12:44 PM
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  #1514  
Old 11-14-2019, 02:22 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by New York Knight View Post
Thursday Night

Steelers:

17-3 SU in their last 20 night games

26-3-1 SU in their last 30 games vs Cleveland

8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 as a dog


Pitt currently +2˝ ... +135
Pitts is 33-4-1 SU since 2000 vs Cleveland (last 38 games)
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  #1515  
Old 11-14-2019, 03:03 PM
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The last time Cleveland beat Pittsburgh was October of 2014

Since 1995, the Steelers have a 36-6-1 record vs. Cleveland
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  #1516  
Old 11-14-2019, 03:25 PM
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Draft Kings Sportsbook


Steelers (+3) ... 81% Handle ... 82% Tix

Steelers (ML) ... 83% Handle ... 86% Tix

Over 41.5 ... 63% Handle ... 60% Tix

Last edited by New York Knight; 11-14-2019 at 03:29 PM.
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  #1517  
Old 11-14-2019, 04:21 PM
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Caesars Palace Sportbooks

"Public pounding the Steelers in all of our seven states, both plus the points and on moneyline. Very little sharp action on either side."
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  #1518  
Old 11-14-2019, 04:47 PM
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Global market

Public on Steelers and the Over

Sharp buy on Cleveland at -2.5 ... Sharp money dried up on the move to -3
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  #1519  
Old 11-14-2019, 04:56 PM
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Action Network

Public

62%: Steelers (+3)
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  #1520  
Old 11-14-2019, 05:24 PM
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Caesars Palace Sportbooks

The total opened at 40.5, dipped to 40 Monday, then steadily ticked up to 42.

“Sharp and public money on the Over"

“We are one of the few 42s available, and there has been minimal interest on the Under ... 5x as much money on the Over currently.”
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  #1521  
Old 11-14-2019, 05:27 PM
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BetOnline

Sharp action

Steelers Over 40.5 ... now 42
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  #1522  
Old 11-14-2019, 06:01 PM
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CG Technology

"Sharp bettors on Steelers +3"
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  #1523  
Old 11-14-2019, 06:07 PM
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William Hill's 100+ Books in IA, IN, NJ, NV and WV


Steelers (+3) ... 74% Tix ... 59% $$

Steelers (+140) ... 93% Tix ... 84% $$

Over 41.5 ... 69% Tix ... 64% $$
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  #1524  
Old 11-14-2019, 06:23 PM
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Since 1990 on Thursday Night Football, when a team is under .500 for the season and they are a Home Favorite of (-0.5) to (-3):

SU: 17-2 (89.5%)

ATS: 15-4 (78.9%)

+10 Pt Teaser: 18-0-1 (100%)
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  #1525  
Old 11-14-2019, 06:43 PM
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PointsBet Sportsbook

"Both Pros and Public on Pittsburgh"


Steelers (+3) ... 79% Handle ... 74% Tix
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